Well that turned out to be one hell of a way of sorting out the Tory party leadership, didn’t it. Rarely in history have schoolboy spats had such serious consequences, but that’s what happens when you pick your Prime Ministers from a muddy puddle of Etonian entitlement. Now Davie has had to resign and the story of his leaving office didn’t even manage to make it as the lead story on the main evening news. That’s what you call a screw up of truly pig penis proportions.
Scotland now faces being taken out of the EU by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the tousle haired quasiclown who hopes that acting the Cicero quoting buffoon and pressing the water bulb on a comedy flower to skoosh the press with his pish will cover up for his rampant ambition. It is of course entirely possible that Boris won’t win the Tory leadership, but if he doesn’t win it he’ll only temporarily loan the post to some other right wing Tory while he does a Gordie Broon and plots and backstabs from the sidelines. Boris only fought the EU referendum campaign in the first place in order to get his ample behind into the PM’s chair and take over from Dave. He’s not going to give up on that. Boris wears his overweening sense of entitlement like Donald Trump wears a fake tan and disguises it less convincingly than the Donald disguises his hair loss.
Now Scotland is looking from the prospect of another independence referendum to the prospect of a Borissy Brexit Britain and back again, and isn’t finding it too difficult to decide which is the more attractive. It’s not a difficult choice really, given that a representative sample of people reportedly take less than one second to choose an overripe mess of unbagged and decaying dead goldfish over a Britain with Boris as boss, even if that’s not a nice way to describe Michael Gove. Admittedly representative samples haven’t had a good week, just ask any of the polling companies that were forecasting a Remain win.
Following the EU referendum, the United Kingdom has become a deeply ugly place. And it wasn’t exactly a winner in a fluffy dog show beforehand. Overnight, with the outcome of just one referendum, all the old certainties have dissolved in an acid bath of red white and blue patriotism which substitutes flag waving for fact and bunting for bona fides. The supposed financial safety of the UK is as much a thing of the past as credible leader of the Labour party, and the pound that they kept telling us during the last indyref that we wouldn’t be allowed to use is now tanking faster than Ruth Davidson at a photo-shoot.
Britain is as popular in Europe as a Scottish nationalist at a UKIP meeting. Brussels is keen to expel the UK as quickly as possible and is in no mood to do Britain any favours. Northern Ireland is seriously considering a referendum, and might just opt for some form of unification with the Republic. The economy is in crisis, and both Labour and the Tories are in turmoil. The Tories are more concerned about their leadership campaign than leading the country, and Labour is descending into one of its all too frequent bouts of internecine warfare. And while all this goes on Cameron and Osborne, who created this fine mess in the first place, are nowhere to be seen. These are the people who condemned Scotland’s referendum for being divisive and unnecessary.
It looks like we’re going to have another. Here in Scotland we at least have the possibility of making for the life rafts. Social media is full of people who voted No to independence last time who are now saying either that they’d vote Yes next time, or they’d think seriously about it. It’s now more certain than it ever was before that there is no future for Scotland in this United Kingdom, a state in which Scotland’s views are in a permanent minority that can be permanently ignored. Britain could only function as an incorporating union as long as Scotland and England politically wanted broadly the same things. That’s not been true since the 1980s. England only voted for this government in the first place after the Tories used the Scots as a bogeyman to scare them. Scotland can’t remain in a state where our only function is to frighten Middle England for the benefit of the Conservatives.
The possibility has been aired of a reverse Greenland, of England and Wales leaving the EU while Scotland and Northern Ireland remain, but all remain a part of a United Kingdom. It’s based on the idea that Greenland left the EU while retaining its constitutional ties to Denmark. But Greenland has considerably more self-government than Scotland or Northern Ireland, and there’s no sign that a right wing dominated Tory party with UKIP looking over its shoulder is going to make any accommodations that will allow a part of the UK to remain within the EU.
Meanwhile the Unionist remainers complain that the old stole the future from the youth, because older voters in England and Wales were disproportionately more likely to vote to leave than younger voters. In the aftermath of the Scottish referendum those same complainers tutted and harrumphed at Scottish independence supporters who had pointed out a similar pattern in the independence referendum.
For UKIP and the Tories, taking back control stops at Berwick. Scotland is to be controlled. Today the press and social media has been full of Kippers and Tories arguing that Scotland can’t possibly be allowed the self-determination that they insist on having for themselves. Britain is broken, and they’re the ones who broke it. They tell us that when Scotland voted in September 2014 we knew full well that there was going to be an EU referendum, but we remember Ruth Davidson swearing blind that it was vanishingly unlikely that her party was going to win a majority. We remember the polls before the 2015 election and the commentators in the press who discussed nothing but a minority government or another coalition. The rewriting of history is in full swing as the British establishment realises the monumentality of its own cock up. But we remember.
No more Etonian playground fights substituting for government. The only solution is another independence referendum. We should bide our time, prepare our ground. But this is our chance. It’s unlikely we’ll get a better one. Britain’s screw up is our opportunity. Indyref2 is on.
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Agreed, WGD. We’re on our way!
I have full faith that the SNP Government have had contingency plans in place for a while now… It is quite funny listening to Nicola stating that they will get to work after the Brexit result, when we all know that they are ‘Chess Playing’ this. 🙂
The westminster establishment are playing with the grown-ups now. 🙂
“tanking faster than Ruth Davidson at a photo-shoot.”
Priceless.
It was strange ticking the “Leave” box when my personal preference was otherwise, but then, I live in Lancashire currently. I wonder how many ex pats voted tactically? Fingers crossed this time for a sweet tasting cherry!
All votes are tactical really Mark. I would say in hindsight that, the UK’s (very narrow) leave result, opens another significant door.
If a Scottish Indy Ref 2 wins by 51.9%, then the Better Together protagonists have no argument that a narrow victory has no legitimacy… indeed, 50.001% is now good enough by the measure of the EU Ref. 😉
Same here Mark; I saw the choices on my ballot paper as:
a) Remain;
b) Full-on Constitutional Crisis
and voted accordingly 🙂
No sorry to kill the nice idea. Northern Ireland is not seriously considering a Referendum. Some ex Terrorists are pushing one. Look at the local map of how they voted and you will see why.
You know, if I was a westminster politico, I’d be far more worried about having just thrown a lit match into the powder-keg of Northern Ireland than I would be about pushing Scotland out of the UK.
Scotland only threw sarcasm and songs, the Irish threw *molotovs*. Reminding them of why they did that probably wasn’t a good idea.
And re the map of how they voted: the areas next to the republic voted remain. Gee, I wonder why they did that?
Sorry, it is more complicated than it being the Border areas who voted to stay, it was Antrim, North and east Down and North Armagh who voted to leave, and they are the Unionist/Protestant heart land. Originally when Northern Ireland / the 6 counties was set up it was given 6 as opposed to 3 counties as that made it that wee bit more sustainable.
It is again the restatement of the Irish problem in another form. Personally I can see no real long term answer except a united Ireland. The problem is that there are 2,000 dead – and remember that the Dead in Ireland are important, see the 1916 Proclamation, who are saying NO. God help Ireland at least we in Scotland are fairly united and can go for it.
I caught Davidson outside Tory HQ mealy mouthing it big time.
Baroness Davidson of the Mound?
A shoo in to Boris’ Cabinet? The Tories Down There think that she’s wunnerful.
WE go now, WGD, while the iron is hot.
I think there will be some lights burning in the SNP policy group for the next few days. An IndyRef2 with the likelihood of a hard border between England and Scotland, plus the potential for a massive currency scare story is going to be a hard sell. You can imagine the headlines:- ‘Is Scotland really going to choose Romanians over its English relatives..?’ To me, one possibility for an independent Scotland in the EU is the potential for UKIP/Brexit hubris that has stoked the idea of Scottish dependency, facing calls to expel the traitor ‘Sweaties’.
If I were running it, I would plan for a vote in say 15-18 months time. That should be long enough to see just how bad things could get (or conversely not..) and to see what the Brexiteer plans are (there don’t seem to be any at the moment..) – In the meantime, parallel discussions with the EU on Scottish accession, creation of a central bank, resolution of the currency issue. Now most of these things would require Westminster agreement, but it would be a fine line for the UK govt to walk. Only then would Scottish voters get a clear view on what they were choosing between. With Brexit as well, there is then a chance of the EU actually making statements. Up till now and in the 2014 referendum, they were constrained to only discuss matters raised by Westminster. I wonder if they would adopt the same approach?
My own view is that to win a referendum the SNP needs to be prepared to bite the bullet of a Scottish pound – in some ways it already exists – with different countries treating the notes issued by Scottish banks differently from BoE notes.
Making that formal with a Scottish central bank is do’able, and it would be backed by the asset share of the BoE, and in many respects a ‘hard’ currency backed by oil. The real challenge would be to limit speculation. Economically, Scotland outside the UK but in the EU is likely to be better off than Scotland in the UK but outside the EU.
Much of the current Scottish export economy is hidden because it moves through ports in Southern England and is accounted for as an ‘English’ export. Similarly, Scottish companies headquartered in London are included in the ‘London’ economy. No-one (unless it’s as closely guarded a secret as the McCrone report) really knows the true economic position of Scotland at the moment, but there is a very clear incentive for Westminster for it to be minimised ‘on the books’. I have a strong suspicion it is nowhere as near as small as currently claimed. That’s even before re-evaluating the Scottish fisheries that were traded away to the EU in exchange for financial services clauses to benefit London banks.
As I posted elsewhere: The EU seems to be currently inclined to respond to Brexit with two fingers (quite naturally), I wonder if they might be persuaded to be mischievous and treat a newly independent Scotland as the successor state, with a Schengen opt out to allow for free movement between Scotland and rUK. All very interesting. Add in rebuilt industry as the new English-speaking beach-head for manufacturing for the EU, and a container port for the East coast – it could all be very interesting. Benefits all round, continuing membership, continued access for EU fishermen to Scottish waters, etc. Naturally tradeoffs would be required, but as we sacrificed fishing rights for London financial services deals, Scotland has a strong hand. So – who’s talking to Tesla about manufacturing in Linwood?
Thoughtful Post, Doug. It is to be hoped that the burden of Referendum Deux does not rest upon ther shoulders, or become the exclusive property, of the SNP Administration.
Could Kezia Dugdale or Wullie Rennie really spout Project Fear in light of the EU result Up Here.Baroness Davidson of the Mound will still wave bits of paper in the air, but now knows that the jig’s up. She’ll be off South shortly now.
All that keech about Border Controls, passports, finance flowing out of Scotland to London, the too wee too poor mantra, when we shall be arguing to remain in the biggest Free Trade Market in the world, unlike the English, Better Together with 500,000,000 of our neighbours?
I’d hope for a Rainbow Yes Alliance this time.
Surely to god there are enough disaffected Labour Tory and even Lib Dem supporters and politicians who have at last seen the light. We get what the 85% Down South want.
Metaphorically Scotland is buried up to its head in sand, and is expected to look on in horror as our near neighbour destroys their precious Union, and Scotland with it.
Scotland is so sparsely populated, that we can actively encourage European workers to come here and help repair the systematic destruction visited upon us by decades, nay centuries, by SE governments.
There might even be the odd Tory for whom Brexit is a bridge too far.
I have observed before that we could assimilate 10 million immigrants and still be underpopulated.
I loved the 2020 vision comment from a poster. The end of the tunnel in less than 4 years.
‘I like that’,
An excellent contribution Doug. Thought provoking.
All they had to do was win the aftermath of 2014 and on September 19th as soon as Cameron made his graceless speech, the union was over. Over the past 21 months, Westminster’s establishment with their own self indulgent and arrogant actions. Their short-termist vision. Their nakedly abusive, manipulative narrative and the rush of events have all conspired to see pledge after pledge and assurance after assurance fall by the wayside. Brexit was the final straw. The pledge of a guaranteed place within the EU should Scotland’s electorate vote NO, the very last key promise to be discarded for no better reason than a tory pissing contest.
Arrogance, ignorance, greed and a complete lack of consideration or empathy for partnership or those in their care.
Westminster will be Westminster – QED!
We hold out our hand to all who want it and we make this right. No rosettes, no recriminations for past votes. Its just that important.
Amen, Macart.
Well said Macart; the message has to be “We don’t care how you voted last time, only how you intend to vote this time.”
…Just long enough to move Trident to the Thames ……
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Kezia Dugdale.
A career in the back door MSP, who regardless of her Electorates decision is still adamant she knows best, never mind what the voters say.
Well if Labour were dying this should finally nail that lid firmly shut, time to put real people first instead of your masters in London, she forgets that the Council Elections are next year and anyone, anyone voting for a party that shoves 2 fingers up at the very people that elects them deserve all that’s coming to them.
We must rid ourselves of the decimation of workers rights that’s coming from the Far Right Tory party and we must act now before it’s too late.
Yes, we begin again now convincing the no’s by argument of attraction, but Tom Devine spoke sense when he suggests we evidence the direction and the twists and turns of the clique in London to see which way the wind will blow and only then should we set sail.
#annelawrie
It is an interesting thought. Parliament was supposed to be considering replacement of Trident in this session. Can we see that happening now or at all?
Moody has put the UK in negative equity. Banks are talking about re-location to the EU. If Scotland plays its cards right, a lot of English-based companies will re-locate to Scotland to remain within Europe. What is not to like?
Holyrood should just act as if it was already the parliament of an independent Scotland. Westminster doesn’t give a damn about Scotland, why should Scotland give a damn about Westminster?
I wish we could, however one of my interest is effectively UDIs. The two best know were the Sinn Féinn setting up the Dail in the City Hall of Dublin in 1919 and the actions of the Southern Rhodesians in 1965. The problem is that Rhodesia had South Africa effectively behind them and the Portuguese regime giving them a rout to the sea so it is not really relevant.
The Irish model was done at t time when the state was far less involved in people’s day to day lives than it is at the moment and much of it was sub contracted to local bodies (Tom Divine makes the same point about how Scotland was run with local democracy up until the 1940s).
Setting up Holyrood has the problem of where do you get your money from as in collecting taxes. Remember that the day the Dail set up there was some freelance violence against representatives of the UK state. This developed into a War of Independence and then a civil war the results of which are still felt. It also gave a disturbed situation where some taxes could be collected at the point of a Gun. There was also De Velera as an agent in America and Collins operating bonds in the name of the Republic. I don’t think that is the route for Scotland and therefore there is no point in having a fantasy. I don’t believe that Scotland’s independence is worth the death of a single person.
Bigirishman, it will be achieved without so much as apaper cut. It is not 1919.
I was just replying to the idea of Dan Hull. I happen to agree with you, but it is worth pointing out historical precedents.
I will say first I despise Tony Blair but even he understood that it was way too risky to put the question of continurd EU membership to the electorate. Many English working class areas believed Farage and his facists that getting rid of the immigrants would solve everything and voted out on that basis. Well guess what it won’t and the vast majority will still be here.Do they seriously think people will be in large numbers forced to go back if so will the Spanish do the same to our lot living on the costas. The dreadful bullying remain campaign in the South and a Labour leader who was practically invisible is also to blame. Meanwhil the economic shock will rumble on for years and that will I am sure lead to further suffering for the working class and the poor in general.It now seems highly likely there will be a second Scottish referundum and it is one we must win.However I sense a fudge coming along reports on BBC of a German politician working on a paper to create associate memberships of the EU could give the Tories a get out jail free card. If it came to pass it would mean a second EU referundum which if won the Tories could then keep the uk just about part of the EU club.I have no great love for the EU but I despise the Tories even more.Anyone who thinks the economic situation will recover quickly is delusional in my opinion.It is time Scotland made its own way in the world as its place in a Union where it can effect little change is now untenable
Aye Eli, it just maybe so that some German politician is working on a paper to create associate memberships, but the problem with that will probably be getting the other 27 countries to agree to it. I reckon the French would probably be a non.
The EU will be glad to get rid of the UK, they were never real europeans, jist reluctant wans. Real moaning minnies to boot. UK has well and truly shat in it’s ain nest, and every one knows that is a very bad idea.
Roll on indyref 2. We gotta get outta this place.
“Article 50
1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.
A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.”
Reading para 4, does that mean that all the UK’s MEPs are getting kicked out of their offices on Monday?
Paragraph 4 would seem to to only apply to European Council and not to the European Parliament? And further only to such matters relating to the member’s exit. My reading would be that the MEPs could continue to attend, speak and vote … But that their influence beyond voting will be minimal.
More interesting, IMHO, is that paragraph 2 doesn’t define a method of notifying the European Council. Now, so far at least, the EU has taken the view that the UK has not notified the Council of it’s intent and would be please get on with it. However given that the treaty doesn’t define a method, the Council can presumably define whatever method it wishes subject only to a vague “reasonableness” test?
So consider this … Cameron announced on a live TV broadcast that was presumably shown around the world that the UK would be leaving the EU. It seems unlikely that none of the European Council where watching that broadcast as it happened, or have failed to see a recording of it afterwards? So Cameron broadcast a message saying “We’re leaving” which was seen by the European Council … Could they perhaps take the viewpoint that if he doesn’t invoke Article 50 at the next meeting it’s because he’s already done it?
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