The indyref2 guide to voting in the EU referendum

Some Unionist commentators are trying to spread some murk around the best way for Scottish independence supporters to vote in the EU referendum. Apparently it’s all terribly confusing, and there was me thinking it was perfectly transparent, as transparent as a Unionist journalist’s attempts to sow discord where there is no need for any.

It’s very simple, so simple that even the most obtuse Unionist journalist ought to be able to grasp the concept. The fact that they are seemingly unable to grasp it means one of two things. Either they are immensely stupid and cannot wrap their wee heids around political strategy, and this would not be surprising from a bunch of bitter enders who firmly believe that political strategy consists of whining SNP bad as loud as their lungs allow and at a pitch that gets higher and higher with every passing day. The alternative is that they are attempting to create disagreements and divisions within the independence movement, although this does mean that they suffer from the delusion that people in the independence movement not only pay attention to what unionist commentators say, but that they also act on their advice. So they are either stupid and arrogant, or arrogant and stupid. Although admittedly those are not mutually exclusive categories.

So here it is, the independence supporter’s guide to voting in the EU referendum. If you believe that the most important question in the EU referendum is whether the UK ought to remain a member of the EU or not, then vote the way you believe. If you want the UK to remain a part of the EU, vote to remain. If you want the UK as a whole to leave the EU, vote to leave. If you wish to approach this referendum as a vote on the status of the whole of the UK, including Scotland, within Europe then the only advice anyone can give you is to vote according to your own conscience and according to what you believe to be best. You should vote to remain if you want all parts of the UK to remain part of the EU, irrespective of what happens in the future with another Scottish independence referendum.

The UK lurches from one political and moral crisis as it is. Even if the UK as a whole votes to remain in the EU and this EU referendum doesn’t create a trigger for another independence referendum, something else will come along sooner or later. Probably sooner, given the ramshackle mess that passes for a UK constitution and the shower of self-serving incompetents who lead British political parties. If the UK as a whole votes to remain in the EU, then Scotland will have dodged that particular British bullet, but then Scotland’s future as long as it remains a part of the UK is going to be one of bullet dodging. Bullets shot at us by a government that only a tiny minority in Scotland voted for.

But if your main consideration is how best to bring about Scottish independence and you’re not overly fussed about the status of the UK as a whole within the EU, and you believe that the EU referendum is best approached as a proxy referendum which can help bring about a second Scottish independence referendum, then you should vote to remain if you live in Scotland, and vote to leave if you live elsewhere. That’s perfectly simple. If you don’t care that much one way or the other who wins in what is, to be honest, a sorry spectacle of a referendum campaign that’s a proxy for a Tory leadership contest, then vote according to the way which is most likely to produce a second indyref. That’s going to be with a remain vote in Scotland, and a leave vote in the rest of the UK.

Even if you believe that an independent Scotland ought to leave the EU, then you should still vote to remain if you live in Scotland, because the best way to bring about a second independence referendum is if the rest of the UK votes to leave but Scotland votes to remain. After all, if Scotland votes to leave along with the rest of the UK then we have no trigger for another independence referendum. The trigger for another indyref isn’t the result of the referendum per se, it’s the difference in results between Scotland and the rest of the UK. Theoretically there would also be a trigger for another indyref if Scotland voted to leave but the rest of the UK voted to remain, but given the very persistent patterns of the opinion polls over the past few weeks that’s about as likely to happen as a Unionist journalist actually grasping an independence supporter’s motivations for voting in the EU referendum.

If you believe that the sovereignty of the Scottish people is hopelessly compromised by EU membership and you want an independent Scotland that is outside the EU, then you’re also going to believe that the question of Scotland’s EU membership is a matter that should be decided by the people of an independent Scotland. It should be up to the Scottish people and a Scottish Parliament to decide whether or not Scotland remains within the EU or leaves it. We shouldn’t be taken out as a side-effect of a Tory leadership contest and a Middle Englandshire turf war between the Conservatives and UKIP. It should be a Scottish government which negotiates Scotland’s terms of exit from the EU, in order to ensure that Scotland gets the best deal.

If Scotland is taken out of the EU as a result of this Westminster inspired referendum what will happen is that Scotland will be taken out of the EU by the Westminster Parliament and under terms negotiated by a Conservative party which is seeking to appease the Tory right and UKIP, and those terms are vanishingly unlikely to be favourable to Scotland. The prospect is pretty awful.

So even if you want an independent Scotland to leave the EU you should vote remain in a UK wide referendum as that brings about the best chance of Scotland getting another bite at the indyref cherry. It maximises the political distance between a Scotland which will vote to remain, and the rest of the UK which may vote to leave. It’s that political gap which will provide the moral justification for another independence referendum. If we can ensure that Scotland votes to remain in the EU by a larger margin than we voted to remain a part of the UK, and the rest of the UK votes to leave the EU, we have an unanswerable case for a second independence referendum.

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48 comments on “The indyref2 guide to voting in the EU referendum

  1. Also, anyone struggling to choose between voting Remain, in the hope that this will lead to Scottish independence, and Leave, because they dislike the the EU, should bear in mind that a member state of the EU does not any equivalent of the Edinburgh Agreement to ensure that it can hold a referendum and that the result of the referendum will be accepted.

    In other words, it is easier for a country to leave the EU, if its electorate so desires, than it is for Scotland to leave the UK. Furthermore, if an independent Scotland stays in the EU while the rest of the UK leaves, we can wait and see how well that works out south of the border.

    • John Edgar says:

      How it works out south of the border?
      That has been our downfall since 1707.
      We do not wait for things to happen dahn sath; we move as a country on our own!!
      Wishy washy thinking is not on any more.
      There are three unionist MPs from Scotland at Westminster.
      Mps for independence from Scotland are in the majority. We move, not wait

  2. John Edgar says:

    The elephant in the room is not the EU, it is Westminster and the 1707 Union.
    Also, even if the UK remains, Westminster is more marginalised.
    We must vote Remain – this is tactical and strategic.
    It strengthens our position if the Schadenfreude result happens; it adds to our status if we vote to remain and are taken out by the English vote; it creates havoc in England if it is a UK wide Remain as the English vote looks like to be on a knife edge.
    On another aspect, if Leave dahn sath is going into the lead, watch the Tory and Labour Remain group stating to make vows, or argue for reverse Maastricht, or call in Gordo! In other words, the post imperial establishment will turn in on itself and crank up the vitriolic rhetoric.
    It looks like Cameron is going to have more time for his family either way. Unintended consequences!
    The EU has certainly been hacked off with the Westminster politicos.

  3. Even if englandshire votes to leave and wins, the number of Westminster MP’s that want to leave are in the minority and the UK has two years to plan the exit. AND if the vote is marginal just like the Scottish referendum… this is not a once in a lifetime pish surface. That plus the MP’s who want to stay AND the EU I would not be surprised to see another referendum to get ‘the right’ result….Notice that Ireland had two one no and then one yes…..the ‘right result’ eventually

  4. Irene Danks says:

    My Schadenfreude moment would/will be if it’s really close in England, but Scottish votes swing it for remain! I might actually laugh up an entire lung…

  5. MarK Russell says:

    Judging by what is unfolding in Marseille tonight, the sooner Scotland can find the courage to say cheerio, the better. I hope the Tartan Army has sent a goodwill delegation in support of the hosts..

    • MarK Russell says:

      Cheerio to the UK, that is.

    • diabloandco says:

      Come ! Come! it is those nasty gangs of Marseille , the nasty French and the nasty Russians all of whom have been attacking those tolerant and charming fans who represent our neighbours.

      • Marsel says:

        It’s going to end badly. Very badly. What a nightmare for the French.

      • As the Holy London Empire gears up for a day of Lizzie Mania, and the Queen’s Expeditionary Force hurls Plastic Garden Furniture of Mass Disruption at the good burghers of Marseilles in the South of France, the State Broadcaster has become a No View Zone for anyone living North of Birmingham. A M&S hamper for the plebs?
        It was Russian Casuals wot did it, according to the Beeb. The poor innocent English abroad: upon which planet do Unionist/ Royalist churnos live?
        English fans attacked? Aye, right.
        I’ll be voting to remain, in the EU, that is.
        There is now no case for Scotland being shackled to England in this unholy nasty little Union of ‘kingdoms’.
        A second Referendum will happen: I personally am in no rush, even at the tender age of 68.
        Westminster is in tatters, and 24th June should be interesting, either way.
        It looks like Farage and Coburn have opened up a 10% lead. UKIP Rules, Ya Bass!
        If England leaves, all bets are off.
        Remember ‘pooling and sharing’? Remember ‘Better Together’?
        Next you’ll be telling me that Kevin McKenna considers Ruth Davidson and WATP Professor Two Jobs Tompkins to be a worthy Opposition to the SNP at Holyrood, and Steven Purcell is the new Great Labour Hope Up Here.
        WE are living in an alternative Universe.
        ‘Zounds !

  6. alex Mckechnie says:

    Classic< Whos on first Abbot & Costello ???? look for it on u tube !!

  7. Macart says:

    Superb! And that third last para is right on the nail. Vote leave now and its a Tory Westminster government who will be doing the negotiating. Does anyone really trust that they have the best interests of Scotland’s population at heart?

    If we are to leave at any time in the future, I want a Scottish government representing the people of Scotland’s interests. More than that I’d like to see a period where Scotland represents itself as an EU member. Will it be more or less advantageous? Will there be better benefits from first hand management of our vote or not? We simply don’t know. To my mind we’ve always experienced the EU ‘through’ the UK prism. However, if the answer is ‘not’ to either question, then we have the debate amongst ourselves and make the decision… for ourselves.

    Worth a read:

    • benmadigan says:

      totally agree macart.
      The important thing for Scotland at the moment is to maintain EU membership.
      If the UK votes brexit, Scotland will need to start procedures to detach from the UK in the 2year EU-UK negotiating period.
      Once Independent, as an EU member (who’s going to throw her out?) Scotland needs time to bed down her own parliament and understand the advantages/disadvantages of being a full state member of the EU and independent of the UK.
      I envisage a Scottish EU referendum as quite a few years down the road after independence.

      • Macart says:

        I think Paul’s nailed the arguments well ATL . For me the priority is to see Scotland deal with these issues as the primary on its own behalf. It simply seems common sense to experience the issues first hand and then make an informed decision based on those experiences.🙂

  8. Vlad the impala says:

    Aye, but, ……. if you live in England, and vote leave, and then brexit occurs you can then celebrate your participation in providing an environment for a lurch to the right. Very difficult.

    • Fat boab says:

      No, Vlad. I know your dilemma but I disagree (I assume that you, like me, currently live in England?)

      The Dug is 100% right when he says:


      (Sorry for shouting but the truth of that needs to be stressed)

      Indy folk living outside Scotland HAVE to vote ‘tactically’ on this occasion. There really is no alternative.The cause of independence can only be served if RUK votes to leave (or ‘lurches to the right’)- and Scotland votes to remain. That is why on 23rd I will be going along to my London polling station and with a very heavy heart voting ‘Leave’

      • Kenny says:

        Correct! That is why I am also voting Leave (in London). I am glad to have my own thoughts on the matter confirmed by the WGD (who is the sort of person everyone should wish for their neighbour — or their Holyrood MP post-indy!).

  9. Steve Asaneilean says:

    Perhaps I am wrong but if the overall vote is Leave the UK Government will have to negotiate a leaving agreement with the EU.

    Would they then not have to have another referendum to allow the people to vote on the terms of the divorce settlement?

    • benmadigan says:

      as far as I know the people of the UK dont have the right to a further vote.
      – if the UK votes to leave, the EU accepts the decision and article 50 of the EU treaty kicks in ( 2 years negotiating the break-up i.e. disentangling UK-EU treaties and so forth, which may be lengthened or shortened ).

      The people in the UK have no further say in these arrangements or anything else to do with the EU

  10. Bugger it. This is Hobson’s choice. Vote for one form of evil, or another. I’ve decided I’m not going to second guess anything and give my two fingers to the political classes. Of course, this does not necessarily align my politics with those beautiful people in Marseille.

  11. cluthab says:

    Thanks Liz, passed on and I’ll question her letter when she’s done her homework.

    What a professional looking team you all looked today!

    Gordon X


  12. MarK Russell says:

    How are the votes to be apportioned? If it is by constituency, then I would agree with your analysis, but if they are simply counted on a national Yes or No vote, then unless there is clear regional or constituency returns, it may well be irrelevant.

    • hettyforindy says:

      Far as I have read, we should know how each area, and country, votes which way, not 100% on that, but here’s hoping!

  13. John Edgar says:

    I see Corbyn had got his moo in a twist while in Aberdeen haranguing the Scots again re voting No to effect a Brexit, then by implication claiming a second indyref! It is in the Guardian online – read or now!
    He is mixed up. If Scots vote to leave the that is democracy. If the vote to remain and are taken out of the EU by Brexit or Engxit, then our voice will be heard for indiref2.
    He has got it all twisted but then he knows nothing about the Scots. The cappuccino ersatz socialist from Islington is just another Westminsterite centralist.
    He makes these sorties beyond the Tweed and does anyone really care? Slab are falling even behind the Tories!! What ignominy! And the Tories are bumping along at the bottom of the heap!

  14. hettyforindy says:

    great article, thanks, crucial that Scotland votes in, otherwise we are truly fckd, with the right wing regime in london having free rein, brrr.

  15. Dominic Barratt says:

    What use is an extra layer of bureaucracy to Scotland? It’s time to get rid of Westminster.

  16. John Edgar says:

    What a stramash “dahn sath”!
    Cameron doing a Gordo, not pacing or klunking, but frightening the peasant- pensioners of Middle England about their pensions and NHS if there is a Brexit/Engxit.
    Then, Whittinghame, another Tory attacks Cameron publically for criticising Johnston and the Torygraph reports plans at Labour to replace Corbyn 24 hours after the vote as he is not supporting Remain among Labour supporters! Slab gets no mention, all action in Labour is a ” reserved” matter! Seems Slab are just a twig mow, not even a branch.
    News that Gordo is about to intervene dahn sath. I have not heard anything about the Daily Record and a Vow!
    Does one laugh or what at the turmoil in the English body politic? Being in this incorporating union of 1707 and witnessing the antics of the Westminsterite parties slugging it out, makes one regret the No/Naw baggers in 2014.
    When you have no joint status in a union, you have naethin’! You can only stare from the sidelines!
    If the infighting among Little and Large Englanders does not make Scots realise the need to become independent from the 1707 Union, then we are back in uncertainty. If the Ukip influence in the Tory party increases, remember Ukip want to do away with Holyrood, then beware! The yoons have a dog-in-the-manger-attitude to Holyrood and the SNP. “They are not getting extra powers, only when the yoons are in power at Holyrood will they contemplate additional real powers.”
    One warning for Slab. The surge in Ukip tendencies among certain sections of Labour voters dahn sath, means that Slab is even more marginalised. Time ti think about solidarity with your fellow Scots!

  17. Macart says:

    You’re going to want to see this first hand.

    Its a belter from Cameron and blows a cornerstone of BTs and HMGs arguments oot the watter.😀 LOLZ

  18. Iain says:

    Absolutely bang on, Paul. The argument in a nutshell.

  19. John Edgar says:

    Cameron states he will not resign of he loses the referendum! He will reshuffle the Cabinet and care on!
    Is that madness or a misplaced sense of entitlement? It would seem that Cameron is not really interested in remaining after all; he threatened to propose leave if he had not got his way when renegotiating the changes. Therefore, all his scares ate just fabrications! He is all over the place.
    Let us wait and see what happens if we have the Schadenfreude scenario!! EVEL will get EVELER!! Tory MPs will start aping their football supporters at Marseille. If it turns out Yes because of the “rebellious” Scots, then we could say we are saving the English from themselves! So, then we might expect the Leavers at Westminster to waive the rules and have an amendment!! Scots can’t overrule EVEL.

  20. Now that i’ve had my greet, just to say that i will be voting to remain for all of the above reasons.

  21. John Edgar says:

    They must be feart dahn sath. Just read Gordo is th be wheeled out in Leicester tomorrow to, ( wait for it) to propose vow-like that the UK COULD propose a series of EU reforms when it takes over the presidency of the council of ministers late next year.
    Daily Record is so far not involved.
    In this thrust foe Labour to make the running now, Gordo, of course is neither in government nor in the EU.
    It looks like panic.
    Of course, there is mo reason why those dahn sath will listen to the rant and floor pacing antics of the worst PM in living memory.
    It seems he has briefed Cameron on his ideas – help for communities where there have been immigrants and refugees.
    Somehow I wonder if even the EU will listen to this perfidious Brit as they have been cheesed off by Cameron and the whole Westminster crew. But Gordo can “move” in mysterious ways his vows to perform and fulfill, as we know in Scotland from the last Scotland bill to bring devo-max -max plus to Holyrood.
    Will those Labour Leave voters listen to Gordo?
    Watch this space! He warned against Corbyn, did not have much influence there.

  22. Robert Graham says:

    Vote stay and you guarantee TTIP with the accompanying ISDS on steroids , these deals are being done in total secrecy by the E U under a 30 year disclosure ban , never heard of them ? well you’re not supposed to when you do find out these deals will scare the shit out of most normal people then you can kiss any thought of a second indyref goodby , vote wisely it might be your last bit of democracy you will ever get a chance to have an opinion on .

  23. Joe Kinnear says:

    Sturgeon making it up pish every day during this period and apparently speaking for Scotland.

    We had her statement that we get £10 back from Europe for every £1 we put in, yet the leave £10bn net loss on our contribution she called a “lie” despite it beings the government’s own figure; we had her statement that adopting something like the Australian points system or similar would increase immigration! (And she kept a straight face); we had Brexit making IndyRef2 “inevitable”, but seemingly no longer; She then calls out her own side of remain for scaremongering, then scaremongers more than anyone in the ITV debate … then she wants to build “progressive” left wing alliances, but remains committed to being controlled by an increasingly centre-right neo-liberal Europe committed to ‘sound money’ and austerity across the Eurozone. Then she decides that the second chamber House of Lords is more of an undemocratic threat to “governing” us than the undemocratic European Union who actually do govern us.

    Then we have to have uncontrolled and welcomed all immigration, despite acknowledging problems in her constituency in Glasgow for housing, health and schools, but her answer is to spend yet more money on public services despite criticising the £1.6tn debt, and Sturgeon recording a record budget deficit in her own backyard of 10%+ of fiscal gap. Yet the solution is to spend more to end austerity. Unbelievable dross from an FM.

    Sturgeon’s ‘solution’ to the lack of democratic consent or accountablity over major areas of public policy (like migration policy) is to ignore the democratic deficit and presumably to let the ‘free-market’ in movement to do whatever. After all the EU is ‘progressive’ along with Davie Cameron, Georgie Osbourne and the City of London and all the other rogues of the UK establishment. On top of that she endorses Project Fear mark 2 yet will swear till she is blue in the face that those arguments from the “experts” are right in the context of Brexit but totally bogus in the context of independence!

    One has to take her utterings seriously, as they are so incoherent, contradictory and her language confrontational and always divisive (we have to win over Unionists wakey wakey screaming “evil Tories” isn’t enough now). Now we have iScotland keeping the pound, with no UK currency union (why keep the currency of a state you want to walk out on???). It’s getting worse.

    Sadly no-one around the SNP seems to want to acknowledge any of the above. As a supporter of Scottish independence I feel Sturgeon has to raise her intellectual game ASAP. Does anyone in the SNP have the balls to raise any of these issues with Queen Nicola?

    • Brian Fleming says:

      Many small countries use the currency of a larger economy, or tag their own to it, for very sound reasons, in a world full of sharks waiting to devour small currencies. As far as Independence v UK is concerned, currency is a red herring. Ah, now there’s an idea. I propose Scotland’s new currency should be a red herring, in ‘honour’ of the Bitter Together mob.

  24. Watching the media coverage as an outsider without a vote in the referendum living in Belgium, I have been shocked by the racist comments being used against foreigners, being then justified as fair comments by a number of senior members of the Leave campaign. So much for so-called British tolerance, rather than 2016, this is more reminiscent of Britain in 1936 and the complete establishment support for the Union of Fascists; including all the major political parties, Conservative, Labour and Liberal and backed by the police especially in London and of course the complete media blackout unless the victims of the Union of Fascists resisted then it was splashed all over the media as being caused by Jews, communists and fellow travellers. Have we learned nothing from history! By the way, in case anyone thinks I am “making up” or exaggerating what happened in 1936; because of course there won’t be much mention of any anniversaries of these particular times, as the full hearted support for the tyrants such as the Hitler by the English leisure classes, both before, during and after World War 2 does not fit in with modern re-written history of how Britain stood solid against fascism and dictatorships; well there are plenty of reference works available for study. Finally, to be fair, if I was presently living in the UK I would be totally confused whether to vote to remain in the EU or leave; as both campaigns have been very short on any real facts as to what would actually happen in the event they won the vote; but anyone who studies or has an interest in European history since the mid 19th Century would be very wary of stirring up some long forgotten hatred of foreigners. Maybe it is because I live in Flanders and the victims of racial hatred can be found in the thousands of cemeteries stretching throughout the entire European continent.

  25. Connor McEwen says:

    Fur a wee change. Nae fear.

  26. Gordon Brown’s beginning to look like his Madame Tussaud’s waxwork replica after it has been damaged in a fire. His jowls have developed jowls; perhaps his new life as a Fat Bloated Capitalist has left its mark.
    He epitomises the SE Establishment.
    What’s in it for his paymasters, not the Great Unwashed.

    I find myself a firm Remain supporter, but for the right reasons.

    I’d no sooner stand on a a platform with the Red Blue and Jaundiced Tory Establishment Remain gang than share a lift with delegates at the Great British Flatulence Society Annual Curry Dinner.

    We chucked Gordon and his Party out of Scotland in 2015, yet there he remains, larger than Death, front and centre doling out his pearls of mercenary wisdom.

    We’ve had Osborne and Davidson shovelling shit in the Borders, and Bools in the Mouth Gove on BBC Radio Jordanhill this morning spouting the opposite sides of, but equally dire, Project Fear EU Style.
    Doomed if we do, doomed if we don’t.

    We are voting Remain despite Cameron Brown and Darling. It is a strange position to be in.

    Unless, of course we leave Engerland and the North Britons to it, and as England sails off into the Atlantic as the 51st State, we take our rightful place as an Independent member of the EU.

    September 18th 2014 will go down as the day when the English Empire finally imploded. The dam cracked. The rot set in. The earth moved. Chickens came home to roost. The Four Horsemen saddled up. (I’ll stop now.)
    For that alone, Mr Salmond, we are eternally grateful.

    I see the BBC Weather Lass is once more referring to the SE as ‘the Home Counties’, and Rio Ferdinand using the collective ‘Home Nations’ to describe England, Wales, and Northern Ireland International football teams. (a sure sigh he thinks that England will be home before their postcards, and he may have to spend three weeks bumming up Wales, Northern Ireland, or at a push, the Republic of Ireland if they last longer in the tournament.)
    Sussex, Essex, Kent, and the like are our spiritual ‘home’?
    Most of the Irish and Welsh lads play in England, so they are really ‘English’ teams?
    The poor demented insular superior imperialist souls.
    Suddenly the language changes. We are ‘Home’ Nations now? Presumably the other 27 nations are ‘abroad’?

    All hell will break loose 24th June, regardless, Can’t wait.

    • John Edgar says:

      Yrs, Gordo gas come up with a proposal which has her put to Cameron, a bit like the Vow, which Cameron’s government will “consider”.
      Gordo has wheeled himself out of obscurity again to indicate that his proposal could be taken to the EU when the UK takes over the presidency of the council if ministers in the second half of next year! I remember the Vow turned into EVEL and Gordo was klunked.
      It is amazing to read the vain person who is not in government and who is no longer an MP but a member of the bankster class, thinking that he can still be influential by telephony within the EU.
      As Slab are in the doldrums behind the Tories at Holyrood and Labour dahn sath are silently infighting, what is Gordo up to?
      His intervention did not stop Corbyn being elected as leader. Is Gordo living in another dimension called “outer self delusion” ?
      He has been quoted in this last hurrah of Labour saying “I will….”, the infill is not worth bothering about!
      The msm seems to think that Labour are taking over the running of the final stages of the campaign in the hope that former Labourite Ukip supporters will vote Remain.
      For Scotland’s sake and future well-being, let us vote tactically and strategically to remain in the EU and effect the Schadenfreude outcome – we keep Engarland in the EU against its wishes!
      By strategy I mean we support the forces within the EU which diminish Westminster’s power. Also, strategically we highlight that we are not Anglo but Scots and start to gain allies within the EU.
      Brexit will cast us into the wilderness within a more right wing UK.

  27. jcd says:

    I’ll vote remain but with a huge peg on my nose as I do so, b/c the alternative’s unthinkable.

    What actually scares me is the possibility that we do end up with a second indyref but that “marked rise in support for independence” doesn’t materialize. I might have overlooked it somewhere but I haven’t actually seen any hard unbiased evidence that Scotland voting remain then getting dragged out by English leave votes would result in a significant rise in support for independence.

    Believe me I fervently hope it does (if indeed that’s what happens though I think they’ll ramp up the pro remain propaganda Indyref1 style and remain will win overall by a very close margin even if it doesn’t look like it right now).

    I hope my fears are groundless but I lost a big chunk of faith in the Scots electorate 18/9/14.

    I’ve done some searches on this but can’t find anything substantive or that isn’t biased. If anyone can point me to any reliable polls research showing that Scotland remain and England leave would result in a significant upswing in support for indy I’d be very grateful.

  28. jcd says:

    Thanks for that, however doesn’t really clear things up decisively, i.e. something like a poll which was as accurate and reliable as possible saying that if Scotland’s dragged out despite heavily voting for in then indy support goes to 60% +

    I’ve never seen anything like that, though that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be the case. It might be though I’m worried it’s a big might. Hopefully Scotland keeps England in, English tories and britnats spluttering with rage shouting about Scots scum, time to invade etc etc and the thick English plebs clamouring to throw us out. Maybe we need them to do it for us, seeing that about half of the population here haven’t – so far – shown that they have the brains and the baws to know what’s in their best interests.

    • Macart says:

      TBH it wouldn’t matter whether it was the case numbers wise or not. If Scotland votes solidly for remaining in the EU but is taken out because of an overall UK vote, then this constitutes yer actual constitutional crisis.

      At that point the Scottish government will have no choice themselves but be forced to take action. Scotland’s citizens have accrued forty odd years worth of EU rights, have EU legislation written in to our laws and trade agreements, have accepted cash subsidies on ongoing development projects. Not to mention the loss of the open border agreement which would sharply bring those other issues into focus. If a majority in Scotland say we’re pro EU, then the SG will be obliged and duty bound to act on that vote to protect those rights.

      Personally I don’t think they want to go there right now, not before they had a chance to build more consensus, but they would be compelled to do so none the less.

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