The Tories are in meltdown this week as two by elections loom in what were nominally safe Conservative seats in the English Tory heartlands, although given the current state of the party there is no longer such a thing as a safe seat for the Tories. Febrile back bench MPs are wailing that the party is locked into a death spiral and that defeat in the two seats is now priced in even though under normal circumstances both seats should have been safe holds for the party.
Should the Conservatives lose the two parliamentary seats, one in Kingswood in South Gloucestershire and the other in Wellingborough in Northamptonshire, the party will exceed its record of by-election defeats in a single parliament and will pile further pressure on a beleaguered Prime Minister who has little personal popularity amongst his MPs. Sunak was anointed leader after the disaster of Liz Truss because he was viewed as a safe pair of hands who could turn the party’s electoral fortunes around, but instead the Tories continue to face the likelihood of near annihilation at the next general election and their woes continue to mount.
The by election in Wellingborough is taking place because the former Conservative MP Peter Bone was removed from his role after more than 10% registered constituents signed a recall petition when the far right MP was suspended from Parliament for six weeks after the Parliament’s behaviour watchdog, the Independent Expert Panel, found he had broken sexual misconduct rules by indecently exposing himself to a staff member during an overseas trip and had committed numerous bullying acts including verbally belittling, physically striking and throwing things at the same staff member. Bone continues to deny the accusations.
The Kingswood by election is being held because sitting MP Chris Skidmore, resigned in protest at the Sunak’s decision to issue more oil and gas licences. Skidmore announced his resignation on 5 January and stood down three days later. Skidmore was Interim Minister of State for Energy and Clean Growth from May to July 2019, during which time he signed the UK’s Net Zero pledge into law.
Skidmore had been covering the post for Claire Perry O’Neill, who was ill. She herself resigned from the Conservatives in January 2023, claiming that the party had become dominated by ideology and self-obsession. She praised Keir Starmer and backed him to provide “sober, fact-driven, competent political leadership”. Another sign that Starmer’s Labour party provides a comfortable home for disaffected Conservatives who see their party’s chances of holding on to power evaporating. Former Conservative leadership contender Rory Stewart is a big fan of Starmer’s and with the entitled arrogance of an old Etonian has said he be happy to serve in a Starmer government. Now former Boris Johnson fanboy Rod Stewart has said he too now backs Starmer as the next Prime Minister.
Some Tories are growing so desperate that there are even reports that some MPs on the right of the party want to bring Boris Johnson back in some capacity. Liz Truss’s Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has called on Sunak to “swallow some pride” and bring back Johnson, describing the disgraced liar as an “electoral force.”
Despite Johnson’s many and repeated lies, his corruption, indolence and the chaos of his administration, he retains a significant following amongst Tory MPs who are now so unhinged and detached from reality that they believe Johnson can win the next election for them.
Yet this crazy, reality challenged party is the one that Keir Starmer chases after, ditching any Labour policy that might attract the ire of the spittle flecked Tory right. Labour leaders always do this, making vaguely left wing promises when seeking the leadership or when in the wilderness of hopeless opposition, but ditching them as soon as a snifter of power hoves into view. This has been the trick Labour has played for decades and which it keeps on playing. It’s the trick Labour is playing right now as Starmer tours the UK, promising ‘change’. The only change he really offers is changing him for Rishi Sunak, everything else will remain the same. Westminster will remain incapable of holding the increasingly presidential powers of the Prime Minister to account.
The House of Lords will continue to be an affront to democracy and Starmer will fully avail himself of the powers of patronage that appointing life peers affords him. Labour has long complained about the inbuilt Tory majority in the Lords, expect Starmer to tackle that by doling out swathes of peerages of his own, some of whom may very well be those former Tories who have switched their support to him. The affront to democracy will only get worse.
While Starmer leaves the dysfunction of Westminster untouched because he benefits personally and politically by keeping things as they are, the rich will continue to enrich themselves, the poor will continue to struggle, migrants will continue to be demonised, the UK will continue to involve itself in wars in the Middle East.
Labour’s pursuit of Conservative insanity is if anything worse than the Tory insanity that Starmer seeks to ape. The Tories are genuine believers, cruel, callous and inhumane. Starmer is merely a cynical opportunist, bereft of all principle except an unshakeable belief in his right to power. He’s Tony Blair 2.0 and any government he leads will very quickly become very unpopular indeed as the ‘change’ he keeps harping on about fails to materialise.
In other news, which is bound to receive wall to wall coverage in a Scottish media which is clearly obsessed with ship building failures, the Royal Navy’s flagship vessel, the aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales has left Portsmouth a day late after postponing its scheduled departure for a NATO exercise at the last minute. The ship, which was due to replace its sister ship HMS Queen Elizabeth after it broke down a week ago. Retired Rear Admiral Chris Parry told the BBC the fleet’s carriers were getting a “reputation for not being reliable”.
In 2022, HMS Prince of Wales broke down off the Isle of Wight, when it also suffered a malfunction with a coupling on its starboard propeller. The two ships were built at a cost of £6.2 billion, nearly double the original £3.9 billion estimate. The ships, built in Scottish yards, were forecast to come into service in 2012, but the first did not come into service until 2017 while the second came into service two years later. Since then both have been dogged by a litany of mechanical failures and breakdowns. No doubt we can look forward to intense scrutiny by the Scottish media telling us how this proves that the government responsible is not fit for purpose. But the ferries, ammarite?
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Wee Ginger Dug 
England is an incurable political virus that only isolation from them can cure
65 other countries are cured
Listen to what the good Doctor says, everyone. 🙂
The dysfunctional UK Ship of State was clearly a template for the two Aircraft Carriers which appear to be in the same state of disrepair as the Government ( and His Majesty’s loyal opposition ! )
The UK is falling apart and this is exemplified by the farcical sight of two horrendously expensive ships ( courtesy of Gordon Brown )limping around the English channel pretending to ”defend” the UK from its enemies ( ?) .
To compound this ‘security threat’ we hear that the British Army is so desperate for recruits that it is signing up foreigners with less than acceptable security checks .
It’s just as well that our nuclear submarine deterrent is safely in the hands of the USA – when they are fit for sea that is !
Here’s anticipating that the two aircraft carriers don’t crash into each other when they eventually become seaworthy. (See Eyes, passim and previous blog.)
Two aircraft carriers crashing into each other would be quite a spectacle.
I did see the mishap in the Red Sea and could barely suppress a giggle. Perhaps the Houthies dazzled them with the use of a mirror and put them off course.
Aircraft carriers are meant to “project” power to foreigners but these two are a laughing stock. Does the UK even have aircraft to carry? The Houthies will be shaking in their sandals.
On this day of all days, you’d think the British propaganda media would be keeping a low profile:
The GMB union appear on BBC Scotland complaining about the Scottish government’s lack of faith in Ferguson Marine following the landing of a contract from the UK government for type 26 frigate work
Firstly, there would be no Ferguson Marine if not for Nicola Sturgeon
Secondly, how come the UK government has faith in Ferguson Marine now when they’ve been rubbishing them since they day they opened, and has voiced that lack of faith in every newspaper across the land, and by every opposition member to the Scottish government?
Maybe Ferguson Marine could build a barge, we all know who to stick on it on their voyage to the south of England, who cares?
One wee quibble. The aircraft carriers were not built in Scottish shipyards. Bits of them were built on the Clyde but other bits were built at other shipyards around the UK – 9 bits in all involving at least 6 shipyards. The bits were then brought to Rosyth to be assembled.
And they wonder why the carriers are dogged by problems.
As to Starmer looks like he has blown the Rochdale by-election.
In which case George Galloway will be returning to Westminster.
Be fair – Module construction has been pretty advanced for the last several decades due to the CAD aspect – Propulsion links into it but is a whole other area, if it fails for any reason the vessel is a barge…
I agree carriers have become the most recent of a string of embarrassments for RN, the most infamous of which were frigates which failed, hence the ‘friggin failed again’ signal back to HQ and HMS James Cook being instructed to ‘make smoke’ with Calmac whilst Able Seaman Martin Goldstein at the Herald did his bit for England….
As to Starmer the bright blue socialist, he’s toast, but will likely win due to England’s hegemonic politics. It is surprising how quickly the political constructs are collapsing because the political/media class think people’s lives are merely a game, precision bombing incontinent pigeons included….
There was a TV programme a couple of weeks ago about a new cruise ship. Built to carry about 9000 passengers & crew if I remember correctly. The cabins were constructed off-site then slotted in to the relevant decks. Some of the other design features/technical aspects were new or new-ish. Whole thing built and launched in 3 years.
I think the problem with any military contract is too many cooks
Not just military but you misspelled crooks
😅😅
The UK propaganda machine is actually thick as two short planks, and militarily ignorant. To hide the delay of the PoW, the unionist media has headlines such as: “Scots ferry fiasco vessel finally sets sail on first round of sea trials”
What it should simply say is:
“PoW sets sail only 22 days early, having been delayed 1 day.”.
“HMS Prince of Wales, originally at 30 days’ notice to sail, has now sailed at eight days’ notice to fill in for HMS Queen Elizabeth.” (UKDJ)
The problem is the QE, and the RN should say whether or not it would have been able to sail off into the sunset in an actual emergency, rather than “just” for an exercise, where perhaps a relatively small fault makes it sensible in normal times to get it fixed rather than just work around it.
The UK is so used to lying it can’t see when the truth would set it free.
Here’s another one while I’m at it. Apparently UK defence spending in Scotland reaches over £2bn, to which we’re supposed to say WOW!
What they don’t point out is that with UK defence spending of nearly £50 billion, that is just 4% of the UK spending compared with our population share of 8% – £4 billion. And yes, I do know the non-UK riposte to that, so why don’t they have figures for England, Wales, NI?
The truth would have set them free.
[…] Source […]
His Master’s Voice, Anas Sarwar, confirms that he too cares about the oligarchs and safeguarding their billions instead of securing a decent standard of living for all. Cliche ridden soundbites galore but, I agree with Maggie Chapman’s demolition.
Anas Sarwar: Holyrood ‘too focused on social justice, not economy’
https://archive.is/b0tsO
There was a somewhat unusual bog post from Richard Murphy citing a Shropshire Star article this morning, https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2024/02/12/people-are-noticing-that-we-have-politics-almost-wholly-disconnected-from-what-people-want-or-need/, but the article header said it all, “People are noticing that we have politics almost wholly disconnected from what people want or need”.
Sarwar thinks ‘it’s just politics’, playing the game, without having the nous much as James Cook to realise people are sick and tired of being the media/political class’s piñata…
Well I had to look up piñata but I know what you mean. People are noticing this all over the so called West. Media moguls like Rupert Murdoch can buy the pols but they cant fool all of the people all of the time. Now we have the internet.
Sad to say, Capella, but they do seem to be able fool a great number of Scots, all the same!!
Why are we only just around 50% for independence? Are we, as a nation, that susceptible to manipulation? I will never understand.
Religionists and foreigners
Minimum over 50% and that’s ‘first thing tomorrow’ as well. Half or more are sold completely.
Quite possibly into the upper 50’s, but we need to see certain to vote numbers go back up, with the current ‘list as long as your arm’ of polling contradictions going away so we know the public are engaged again, ergo are getting representative samples. So much total nonsense in the numbers right now, which is normal out of campaign periods.
I’ll tell people when this happens. No idea when it will. Scots leave it late sometimes. In 2019, polls only saw the SNP rise from about 39% (they are on ~37% now) to towards the 45% they got (closet prediction was 44%) 2 weeks before.
I agree – I think the percentage YES should be 99.99% and the reason it’s not is because of the total immersion in propaganda from all media.
Yet still over 50% say YES. It’s up to us all to persuade the others. But the media is not our friend. Town halls, street stalls, leafleting, X twitter, Facebook, Youtube and so on are more friendly, The National on a good day – well actually most days it’s way above the gutter press, and this blog and all others like it. Friends and family.
Keep calm and carry on.
Josh Simons, the Labour twonk who wants to send criminals to Scotland on a barge has apologized for his crass remarks about Scotland, but it’s all OK folks because he claims he’s half Scottish
Gosh what a relief eh! This guy is even more of a moron than I originally thought, he’s now inferring Scots are racist AND thick if he believes we’d forgive his insults just because he’s a bit Scottish so it’s OK to insult us
Josh Simons is a strategic adviser to Sir Kier Starmer, that makes him all British no matter the colour of his skin, the sound of his voice or even if he has ginger hair and a kilt in his wardrobe, yeah yeah the hair’s in the wardrobe too
I don’t understand why we put up with so many English people insulting Scotland and our people on a daily basis and keep making excuses for that whole country’s stupidity, like *it’s not them all* really? really?
Seems like it is
Apparently he has lots of Scottish friends too. Really likes Scotland. Drinks Irn Bru and enjoys the occasional deep fried mars bar.
Which half?
I see Glen Sannox left Port Glasgow under her own steam to begin sea trials today. I have seen comments on Facebook by Unionists that can only be described as weirdly bitter. They sounded disappointed that she didn’t explode, catch fire and sink. I could understand “Not before time” or “Better late than never” but to be so down on a government that you would want key infrastructure projects to fail sounds positively hostile.
Once these two ferries and the four from Turkey are in service what will the next moan de jour be? … especially if Branchform draws a blank. It is a given that there will be media campaign of attack which the Unionists will feed off in symbiotic frenzy but what will it be ( no offers of bets please, I don’t do bets 🙂 )
They had an English woman from Arran who complained that at “the slightest puff of wind the Ferries are off” and she had meetings in London
Why would you live on a Scottish Island if you work in London? should be the sensible question and answer to the stupidity of asking the sensible question
I’m sure you can Skype from Arran too.
I grew up on Hoy, the ferry could be off for days at a time. Important things like the Beano sometimes arrived two or three issues at a time.
On holiday in Arran, something unravelling in Holland meant a personal visit was required, caught first ferry, flew to Skipol, had meeting, saved the day( what a hero) flew back, ferry back to Arran, fish and chips on the beach. Where’s that puff of wind when you need it, that’s what I want to know.
Golfnut
She could always go live in London. Most islands are pretty but have one downside they are surrounded by water which means in dangerous weather you can’t get off them.
If Operation Branchform were any other investigation the Tory Labour and Liberal Democrat opposition would be screaming about the cost overruns time and incompetence of such an investigation that so far had achieved no results whatsoever
It would be the number one FMQ by all opposition parties as to why £millions was being wasted to recover a few £thousand that belonged to the accused party members in the first place
A party tearing itself apart.
https://archive.is/F2C9m
Labour candidate suspended over ‘f***ing Israel’ comments
A LABOUR candidate has been suspended from the party after referring to “f***ing Israel” at a meeting.
Labour are actually suspending people for outbursts of frustration / anger over a country committing genocide openly while various world leaders – including the supposed PM of the UK in waiting (no laughing at the back) – sit back and watch… even send it arms.
Labour will not ‘win’ the coming election. It’s going to be a f’n mess is what the polls say, and no wonder. UK is utterly f’ked. Economy screwed, recession predicted, hopelessly divided with 2/4 nations heading for the exit. Totally lacking leadership, with crazies only interested in pocket lining in charge and, amusingly, thinking they are waiting to take office with a big mandate.
So, so, so f’d.
UK = Last days of Rome, but without the sunshine.
One day their “sunny uplands” will come, remember that Tory slogan?
Drivetime on R Scotland attempted to smooth over Keir Starmer’s disastrous handling of the Rochdale by election by interviewing Neil Findlay a left wing former Labour MSP. Martin Guissler did his usual harangue style interview with much huffing and puffing when things went south.
What Neil Findlay revealed was that selection of Labour candidates is now all done centrally and they are particularly strict in Scotland. If you’re not a pal of Starmer then forget it. So that’ll be Neil off the candidate list then.
From 1 hr 22 mins in to 1 hr 28 mins (if you can thole 6 minutes)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001w77m
Oh dear. Labour have suspended a second candidate, this time for saying that British people who fight in the IDF should be locked up, allegedly. Seems this was recorded and upset the Israel lobby. Perhaps they should just suspend all their candidates. Central office is not very good at this selection process.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-682
Oops, link above has bit missing:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68289460
If thou wantist to be a Labour party loyal thou must have no principles other than those currently directed from above, meaning whoever’s in charge at any given moment
It’s uncanny,the parallels between right wing politics in the USA and England.
The USA has it’s MAGA party and England it’s MEGA one.
The MAGA party supported by gun toting rednecks,Christian fundamentalist and those who just hate everyone else.
The MEGA party supported by fox hunters,Thatcherites and xenophobes.
Both parties are promoting isolationism in order to pursue narrow bigoted agendas unfettered by international customs and laws.
The USA threatening to bring back Trump and England,BoJo.
Makes you wonder about some of the people who live in these respective countries.
Unhinged.
Seems to be that as far as Labour are concerned nothing bad can be said about Israel or the Israeli government because that would be anti semitism which by the way is defined in the Oxford dictionary as hostility or prejudice towards Jewish people. Hmm 🤔Perfectly fine then for Israel to do what it likes to anyone in Gaza. Labour are pathetic they are really are. Starmer is so bad he makes Blair look like a lefty. He is a hypocrite and a coward. Labour are nearly every bit as bad as the Tories.
The lame duck excuse for calling out Israeli barbarism as being anti Jewish is much the same as calling out Scottish independence as being anti English.
Simplistic nonsense.
In same vein.Keir Starmer advisor and Labour think tank director Josh Simons has apologised for saying what he was thinking.That is put immigrant smugglers on a barge to Scotland.
Having that level of disdain for supposedly part of his own country and people,imagine what he and his think tank think about Gazans.
The silencing of the critics begins.
This will escalate, and English Labour will escalate if they win power. Expect Scots to be targeted. Don’t be surprised if pro-Yes politicians start finding themselves arrested or in court on trumped up charges. That has probably already started.
https://archive.is/jAY9d
The tale of the Northern Irish rap group, the Tories – and the sinister censoring of ‘anti-British’ art
…The British government soured Kneecap’s recent success by blocking the group from receiving a £15,000 grant. Their application to the Music Export Growth Scheme – an independent, government-backed arts initiative that offers grants to promote artists overseas – had been approved, before the government stepped in to rescind the funding.
This is literally what Putin does. The next stage is openly arresting critics.
Has Corbyn tweeted to Sir Kid yet…”want to talk about it”
🙂
The OO says Scottish independence and Irish reunification endangers their heritage and divine right to rule Britain
Isn’t that the same thing the Taliban and that ISIS lot say?
“Tui to quit London in blow to UK’s post Brexit prestige”
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/24118577.tui-quit-london-blow-uks-post-brexit-prestige/
“SHAREHOLDERS in travel giant Tui have voted [almost] unanimously in favour of the company ditching its listing on the London Stock Exchange.”
Ummm. Time to claim a site in Glasgow for the new/old Scottish Stock Exchange.
Just about every day I read about another business that has gone under due to England’s brexit. Pubs / restaurants are really biting the dust a rate of knots. Can’t get the staff nor afford the prices for goods. If they put prices up, people can’t afford to come due to the the cost of living crisis England is foisting on us.
Yet Scottish / English Labour will go into the coming election on a pro-brexit, pro-cost of living crisis ticket.
I find myself astounded that people think Starmer is going to ride into No 10 on a wave of hope, saving the union. Brexit unionism is, it seems, is a drug that makes you lose your mind.
Jings, even Blair’s cheering crowds outside No 10 had to be faked (all Labour bods and family), and he was miles ahead of where Starmer is polling-wise.
Major’s Tories one the support of 22% of the electorate on that fateful night. Starmer has the support of the same right now according to polls when you look at the dire turnout projections. Aye, 14 years of Tory destruction and Labour can’t conjure up more support that Major in 1997.
From Martin Hannah in the Herald:
“In all the discourse I have seen since Saturday, most people have concentrated on the ‘We wuz robbed’ conclusion to the match rather than the fact that Scotland did a very good job of not winning by playing the game France wanted us to play. We kicked the ball far too often and that suited France.”
I agree and did at the time, but it was something none of us wanted to say out loud. 15 minutes of madness.
you – can – not – play – nearly – a – quarter – of – the – game – protecting – a – tiny – 6 – point – lead – in – rugby
Agree wholeheartedly but we wiz still robbed 😁
The referee was a muppet.
https://archive.is/b9ba1
Labour lead over Conservatives drops to lowest level since June
This is because the certain to vote level in the poll is up. 58% compared to usual 53/54 of late. When turnout projections rise, Labour VI falls. Same in England as it is here. When more people engage and say they plan to vote, it’s not for Labour, but their main opponent.
Super quick projection from recent 7 poll Savanta data and you are looking at Lab falling to about 34% with Con on 33% for a 70% turnout projection.
Now Savanta projected 71% just ahead of 2019. It’s normal for pollsters to overestimate here. So we can imagine a similar turnout to 2019 of 67% would see Labour struggling to be ahead of the Tories.
Remember the Local elections last summer? Labour were on 45% in national polls yet got 35% of the vote. Tories were polling 28% and got 26%. The Tories just lost some share to independents. Labour lost 10% as this is mainly English mist.
Labour need voters to stay at home. If that happens, they get the keys to No 10, but with no democratic mandate. Weak, divided and no mandate. Protests have already begun.
Labour are chasing a right that won’t vote for them. These people want real nasty racist Tory types, not fake ‘I’ll be a nasty racist if you want me to be’ new Labour.
This is why I keep saying watch for big VI changes when the time comes.
The UK is hurtling towards a total mess of an election and further political destabilisation. That’s why we have Yes at over 50% here now, likely permanently, and a pro-reunification FM just took office in Northern Ireland.
Tick tock.
Out walking the dog this morning I saw Glen Sannox sail down the Clyde. I recall the Herald with a story saying that these boats may never sail. Of course when they write these lies they always leave themselves an out word like “could”, “should”, “may”. I had a look today to see if they had a story on the Glen Sannox sailing but no they have two other “Ferries are Bad” stories.
When it comes to journalists I’m pretty much sold on the Frankie Boyle observation “Why buy a newspaper, lie to yourself and cut out the middleman”. I used to buy the Herald every day on the way to the office. I wouldn’t have it in the house these days let alone the drivel that passes for news in the right wing tabloids….where every day a wall of snow is about to end life as we know it. 🙂
The Herald is the paper I grew up with; my parents bought it. Neither they nor I would buy it to light the fire with these days.
Can’t recall if I posted this, but how England continues to be in breach of the United Nations international peace treaty it has with Ireland that is the GFA.
https://archive.is/68oKr
Rigorous impartiality: What has been breached in the quest for a DUP deal and why the British will regret it
For over twenty-five years, the government of the United Kingdom has been under an extraordinary obligation. The last two governments have failed to uphold it. As a consequence, the present condition of the UK Union is unstable, and its future is more uncertain.
Article 1 of the British-Irish Agreement made in 1998 to underpin the agreement reached by the parties in Northern Ireland states that, ‘whatever choice is freely exercised by a majority of people of Northern Ireland’ on whether ‘to continue to support the Union with Great Britain or a sovereign united Ireland’ (Art.1i):
the power of the sovereign government with jurisdiction there shall be exercised with rigorous impartiality on behalf of all the people in the diversity of their identities and traditions (Art.1v)
The obligation to exercise sovereign power in Northern Ireland ‘with rigorous impartiality’ serves two obvious purposes. The first is to protect nationalists in Northern Ireland from discrimination and neglect; the second is to protect unionists in a future united Ireland from the very same…
Our neighbour cannot be trusted a country. The world know it. This is why so many trade deals we were promised are going belly up. England signs then breaks its deals.
In our case it was the Smith Commission and our right to freely chose independence that was the promise on paper that was broken.
Just watched ( my own fault , I know ! ) a Scottish ( sic ) Labour Party broadcast . This contained a nauseatingly personal attack on Nicola Sturgeon by ( I assume ) someone grieving the loss of a relative to Covid .
Sir Kid Starver sat listening and looking suitably moved as a it was suggested that if Holyrood ( and the FM ) had done SOMETHING differently then her relative would not have died .
Clearly Ambulance Chasing is not just Sarwar’s hobby but seems to be a Labour Party Election strategy . FFS !
I presume nothing was offered to Scots. Labour’s manifesto will only contain the things they will deny Scots – namely the things Scots previously vote for and still desire – while offering them nothing.
Labour have not won over a single voter since 2019 because they are not offering anything to anyone.
They have waited for 14 years for Scots to become unhappy with the SNP, so ‘come back to Labour’. They don’t feel they need to offer any alternative, but just let the media relentlessly assault the SNP, and at some point we’ll move back to Labour.
They don’t get that if the SNP e.g. suddenly became right-wing anti-indy Tories, that would not have people voting Labour. They’d either not vote, or vote for another indy party that emerged to replace the SNP. And that would happen quickly.
Starmer talks about people wanting change, but offers no change. Indy is the only change on offer in coming elections. The parties clearly fighting for that will get the votes in Scotland, those opposed will go down yet again in support levels, as they have been doing for decades now.
In England, I expect the turnout to go up enough to deny Starmer any real mandate. We will have another mess / stalemate in this hopelessly broken and divided relic imperial state on it’s last legs.
It was also a lie, that particular woman is a Labour party activist, and now her friends and neighbours know she’s a liar when she inferred she had previously voted SNP
https://archive.is/xlHZl
“So this idea that the election is a done deal – an opinion poll is a snapshot of one point in time – it is not an indication of what will happen at the next election.”
He [Sarwar] insisted that polls will “continue to narrow [between Lab and Con UK-wide]” as the General Election approaches.
Seems Sarwar has been reading my posts too.
He certainly knows Labour do not have good support, and that they just appear to be doing well because of low turnout projections. They are paying professionals to tell them what me as an amateur in my spare time can see screaming from the data tables. The focus groups and doorstepping will be grim. Starmer’s ratings are sh*te and getting worse every day FHS.
Of course his statement means he expects the SNP lead over Lab to widen as the election approaches. That is the equivalent in Scotland; incumbent is seen to recover as the electorate engages with pollsters. ‘Better the devil you know’ in England etc. Or the ‘decent government that’s trying it’s best in seriously difficult circumstances’ in Scotland’s case.
I will say again… Labour are on a really shoogly peg, and all the evidence suggests they will go downhill towards the election. They know it. This is why Starmer is desperately sacking candidates and throwing his policies out the window as he tries to work out how to stop the rot. He won’t be able to though as he’s not got a principled bone in his body. That’s why it’s all going horribly wrong. Only way to correct it, is to replace him and cronies with decent, left of centre, principled politicians. But then he’s firing all these and the English right-wing media would slaughter them like they did Corbyn anyway.
So HMS Britannia keeps on taking water with no hope of this being stopped.
That said the Daily Mirror mega poll today of 18,000 voters has Labour well ahead and the SNP in a very strong position too.
Sampling loads of people does not improve accuracy measurably. It’s why pollsters use 1000 or so. However, if you are getting poorly representative sampling – which is common away from campaigns and the evidence suggests is the case right now – 18,000 will just be a more expensive pile of crap.
Turnout levels remain too low to take polling as some sort of prediction as to what will happen. As soon as this twitches up, SNP goes up and Labour down in polls. In England it’s Con up and Lab down. Expect it to go up as voting day approaches, so Labour will lose out as Sarwar says. If turnout is overly high, it will likely drop on approach. If it’s very low, then expect it to rise. We are low right now, very low.
The SNP finding is nice for the SNP as they’re not riding high due to the low turnout projections, but suffering. But it’s bad for Labour, who are in the reverse position. All the good polls for them are artefacts of turnout projection. They’re no further forward in terms of committed voters than 2019.
I imagine the SNP voters will come out in droves if they see and hear Yousaf and all other SNP candidates and their leaflets have Independence first and foremost. Stop with the vote for us to be rid of Tory or Labour. It needs to be full on Independence talk. All day every day in the run up to an election. Reminding everyone what they’d lose (prescriptions, uni fees, child payments, school meals …etc). Explaining, in everyday language, how we’d have much more money to spend on Scotland and those that live there. (I follow and subscribe to Believe in Scotland and their book is great, but they talk about renewable energy and whisky bringing in all this money, but when I mention this to a friend I’m trying to win over, she just says but its all owned by foreign companies, so how would Scotland benefit? And the BinS book doesn’t answer that..and I’m rubbish with figures, so need a good, simple, answer)
Easy answer, revenue to the Treasury.
On energy there is possible nationalisation, but let’s not kid ourselves that the Treasury is not making more out of it than the companies are.
Ditto on whisky, the duties and taxes on a bottle from memory were ca 90%…
Thank you
You shouldn’t try to persuade your friend to support independence, but get her to try to persuade you of the union. She will find this impossible, whereby persuading herself of independence (if she is open to that at all).
As I have said before, Yes cannot lose the coming UK election. Yes is not in any trouble at all, it’s never been so strong. Seems even in a ‘baseline’ trough, it’s now in permanent majority; something the demographics have been saying was inevitable since 2014.
Polling right now says unionist parties will badly lose the coming election. They’ve failed to win over any voters since 2019, and even lost some to Yes. If they win some seats, it’s because most Scots don’t want them, so didn’t bother coming out to vote for them. That’s a serious blow to the union if it happens, especially ahead of the far more important 2026 election.
Here are the latest numbers; down a tad on my last update as support for the union continues to steadily decline:
I think people need to understand that, because Scots now back independence, UK elections don’t matter to them. They don’t want to be involved in them, don’t want seats in Westminster, and can’t affect change (within the UK) by them no matter who they vote for.
Now in England, people can’t vote for independence from their own government, so just have to ‘suck it up’, short of some new democratic movement coming on scene. So Lab/Con/Lib don’t care very much about turnout; they will happily see it drop until there’s actually some sort of uprising. But it’s everything here as Scots can vote for independence, and this cannot be stopped short of ending all elections.
The SNP can’t really lose this election if their goal is independence. They could lose half their seats, but if Yes continues on its upwards trajectory, then nothing has actually been lost, especially if we see the total number of votes for the union as a function of the electorate fall yet again as polls predict.
In fact it could help us as the polls are helping us now. The mirage of a unionist revival has the SNP stressing, and hopefully understanding they need to show they are going to fight tooth and nail for indy. At the same time, unionists are thinking they are on the up when they’re on the way down. That has drunken racist, coke snorting brexiter England punching little Scotland even harder, making her more determined to leave, and the sooner the better. That’s why we are being offered nothing in English party manifestos, but in fact being openly denied stuff (iref2). The idiots are looking at VI numbers rather than indy support levels and the true level of their own party support. All they see is what they want to see.
In some ways, a huge SNP victory on a simple ‘stop the Tories’ mandate might have the SNP not put so much effort into independence in 2026, which is the far more important election. <i<2026 is our election, for our country, and IMO opinion, should be an defacto iref if England says we can’t hold a regular one. Yes parties got a record share of the vote (absolute majority) on a record turnout, on a record voluntarily signed up electorate in 2021. Holyrood finally overtook Westminster elections as the most important to Scots, signalling the latter now being ready for independence.
It’s deliciously ironic that Scots deciding they are now ready for indy, so disengaging from British politics and pollsters, has created a mirage of a unionist revival that has unionist deluding themselves.
Deep down it doesn’t add up to them either, because on the doorsteps and in the focus groups, it’s so, so grim for the union. But they can’t help it. That polling mirage of an oasis after years in the desert is so, so tempting. It must be real! But Sarwar’s words revealed the truth.
So I’m not worried about what happens really. It’s England’s election. I’ll vote as I always do, but the polls say the union is going to lose, and worse than last time, even if they gain some titanic deckchairs because Scots don’t want these any more. They’ve given up on Britain, and will vote Yes when the opportunity presents itself.
They will also not let anyone touch their parliament. That would have them in open rebellion and the 3.5% would bring down the British regime.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world
So if they SNP are to do well, it must be on a solid pro-indy campaign. If they just talk about defeating the Tories, and how we need a strong voice in Westminster, then I’d be ok with them getting less seats as a result. After all, the unionists would be the real losers if, as polls show, the numbers turnout out for them falls yet again.
The ‘3.5% rule’: How a small minority can change the world.
Having re-acquainted myself with the research first published in 2011, which you kindly provided the link for:-
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world
the events of the past few years come into sharper focus.
The ebc and msm viciously under-reporting of attendance numbers at AUOB marches if they reported them at all.
Everything with the marches went along swimmingly for the first wee while maybe a year maybe 18 months then they started to grow in size quite dramatically, and after they hit 100,000+ in Edinburgh the nonsense from officialdom started.
The attacks on the AUOB management group and attempts at criminalising individuals, the continual last minute changes to the route and or requirements for Insurance/stewards/police approval/clean up bonds/etc. etc.
Now if we accept the population of Scotland as 5,500,000 souls. Then 3.5% of that is 192,500, looking at it with 20/20 hindsight it all kinda falls into place.
Independence marcher numbers grow from around 5,000 to 100,000+ in a relatively short period of time and the international media coverage starts to take serious interest, and put the ebc and local msm to shame.
Now 100,000+ is more than half way to the trigger point of 3.5% of the population. At this point the wastemonster opens an eye and realises that all the vicious under-reporting of attendance numbers and or ignoring AUOB marches is not working. A fist comes down on a table and officialdom scurries to please their masters, with all the new requirements for public assemblies, permits for this and licences for that, accusations against individuals, and the old favourite, ‘divide and rule’.
Sit down with a coffee/tea/juice and a biccy and think about the way things worked out before Covid came along, and the way things have gone since, and you will see there is a frightening similarity to each sequence of events around any ‘principal actor or group’. Just like the same well thumbed play book is being run through over and over again.
Now we are almost starting again with another round. So this time let’s stay focused, if you’re going to a march, go don’t let any butt’s(sic) put you off, go and take a friend and the next one as well, if we can maintain a 200,000 average, things may begin to change very quickly.
Oh! and by the way, make sure you, your family and friends have voter ID, there’s a combined countries election coming soon in case you weren’t aware.
Seriously, take that graph in folks. In 1997, 54.3% of Scots said they were certain to vote unionist, and did exactly that.
That’s 35.5% today, and an overestimate as pollsters tend to get higher turnout projections than reality.
Barely 1/3 of Scots actually want to be represented in Westminster. Not only that, but a decent proportion of these even back indy, notably Labour voters.
No amount of spin can get around what are disastrous numbers for the union, and when the SNP are on the back foot, having taken some big blows in the past year+.
It’s ironic that Sturgeon seems to have broken the union by resigning. Or rather England taking her out did that. Coincidental maybe, but it seems to have been a major turning point.
Got my letter from Yousaf and Flynn today. At the top in big letters
“A Partnership for Independence. Help us WIN at WESTMINSTER ”
Yes it goes onto say that their “manifesto will state on page one, line one that a vote for the SNP is a vote for Scotland to become and Independent country.”
But that heading worries me
If you govern your own country you can decide who runs what and who profits from what. That’s the point.
The Mirror is a Labour paper, so when they say the SNP is in a very strong position they mean the SNP are very likely some distance in front
From the National:
“Campaigners urge MSPs to progress Scottish witches pardon bill left in limbo”
It really should be a total priority to secure the votes of those witches left in limbo. Every vote counts!
Maybe they could cast a helpful spell from beyond the grave…
Aye, on the 2% of Salmond supporters voting Labour
Witches … does that mean Kay with an ”e” ?
Are you sure you’ve got the initial letter right, millsjames1949?
From the National:
“Tories to be wiped out in Scotland at next General Election”
They’re going to need more bog roll.
Party in meltdown.
This, I know, will appeal to Capella – but then again, I wouldn’t wish to disenfranchise any fellow-Dugger who might find this also of interest.
Maybe some of you will come down south and west (not ‘down south in a straight line’!) and come and see it.
It stars he who would be the first President of indy Cymru in many peoples’ estimation.
https://nation.cymru/culture/watch-first-look-at-michael-sheen-in-nye-trailer/
Wales Millennium Centre has today released the anticipated trailer for ‘Nye’ starring Michael Sheen.
Alongside the trailer, Wales Millennium Centre say: “Michael Sheen is Nye Bevan in this surreal and spectacular journey through the life and legacy of the man who transformed the welfare state.”
[…]
Brilliant – I hope it will be available to stream after the initial tour. Two heroes in one film! In fact I hope it is streaming before the election to remind people what a real socialist is like.
We need a film about John Maclean. Not sure who our Michael Sheen would be…
How about a murrrderrr mystery docudrama ??
The Life, Times, and Legacy of
Willie MacRae
So, as was blindingly obvious, England has put the UK into recession. Meanwhile, Labour is standing on a pro-brexit, ergo pro-recession election ticket. Good luck with that.
This morning BBC Scotland interviewed an economist who said “THEY” don’t really like us talking about Brexit but most of the damage we are currently suffering has come from that”
My question is “who are THEY ??? and why do economy experts speak in hushed tones when they mention Brexit, as though they’re committing some kind of crime???
Also today BBC Scotland in their infinite wisdom will have a *let’s talk about Nicola Sturgeon day phone in conversation*
I suppose on a day when the country of England and the government they elect to rule us all are proven to be the direct cause of all our woes, the BBC in Scotland must encourage as many supporters of England rule to phone in and engage in some Nicola Sturgeon bashing
For fair and impartial balance don’t you know
For Wales see England,
Worth 18 minutes of anybodies time.
Golfnut
For all of Britain’s Empirical identical story see England
What a voice. I have heard his Raymond Williams Lecture before and it was stunning. But adding a visual story makes it more vivid. Thx for posting.
If only he was Scottish … we might be Independent today !
Wish you hadn’t said that …
It rather begs the question why aren’t “WE” (the exclusive we)?
I think particularly in Scotland when you hear a man who’s as passionate and powerful a speaker saying all the things that we have said and think, but he’s saying them about his own land of Wales it makes for one of those special moments when peoples in our position must and need to really unite against the barbarism theft and murder of the country of England that enriched themselves by force while calling us less than them
They called the Irish sub human, the Scots uncivilised, yet all that they are they say is best left in the past
No it’s not, they are the same now as they were then, they take
Newspapers and media all blethering away this morning about Nicola Sturgeon’s legacy, WHY? are they trying to make us think she’s dying? soon to be dying? dead? gone somewhere? never coming back from where they want her to go to?
BBC Scotland have a phone in to drive a wedge between rural Scotland and the central belt as to which parts of our country gets more funding than others
For the folk who fall for this con trick in rural Scotland let me put it this way, Scotland has two governments, one (Holyrood) has the job of managing the economy and running most of the services while the other (Westminster) holds all the finance power and control to prevent the first one doing that as well as they could with all the powers the other government (Westminster) has
If Scotland were fairly and honestly financed on an equitable basis by England’s Westminster the SNP wouldn’t have ever needed to exist, because we’d all be happy wouldn’t we?
But we’re not, so we’re not
You cannot run a country successfully with another government making decisions that another country votes for
Try driving your car with an “instructor” (Sec of State) pulling on the hand brake every five minutes and his boss (PM) in the back seat screaming in your ear, and pedestrians (media) banging on your window
That’s what it’s like in Holyrood
Scotland raises £87Billion in revenues. UK raises £731Billion (including Scotland). UKGov spends £1090Billion.
Scotland has to pay repayments on loans not borrowed or spent in Scotland. Pay for Defence £4Billion. 180,000 military personnel. 10,000 based in Scotland.
Tax evasion £3Billion. Block Grant £40Billion. Westminster spends half of Scotland revenues £50Billion. HS2, Hickley Point, Trident. A total waste of monies. Then claims Scotland is in debt.
Spending £103Billion. A total fabrication.
Scotland in surplus in fuel & energy and nearer the source pays more. 25% = £8Billion disappears south.
Westminster Illegal wars, tax evasion and financial fraud. Westminster funded Ukraine £2.5Billion to continue the war.
Gaza genocide is an absolute disgrace. Bombing the Middle East to bits for years. Trump will stop the wars in Israel and Ukraine.
I’m afraid you’re well wrong about Trump Ken, Trump is an America first conservative protectionist and would leave Israel Ukraine and anywhere else where there’s conflict to it
Trump will only interfere where there’s money to be made or America is attacked, just like America has always done
America has always been only the saviour of itself, just like England
Biden and his son are making £Billions out of Ukraine. Recycling US public monies into their pockets. The son is up on corruption charges. Drug use, gun misuse. Contracts with Oil interests in Ukraine.
Biden is senile according to a US government reports. Trump will stop these wars and stop funding fuelling these wars.
Right out of Putin’s playbook Ken
Ken’s right about Joe and Hunter Biden’s corruption in Ukraine. It’s well documented.
A US judge just deemed Joe Biden too senile to stand trial. But the Democrats think he’s OK to be president. None of this has anything to do with Vladimir Putin.
John F Kennedy Jr has spelled out the real reason for the massive bonanza in war mongering.
https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1756762480414544070?s=20
Sorry – Robert F Kennedy Jr. I’m getting my Kennedys mixed up.
Ken and you Capella are both 100% wrong, Vladimir Putin has made a public announcement favouring Joe Biden as US President in the full and certain knowledge that visible and vocal support from him for Biden would more than likely see America a country that has always been anti Russia vote for Trump at the next election
Trump is only standing upright because of Vladimir Putin, without Putin Trump would’ve been a broke goner a long time ago
Not one single business investment by Donald Trump anywhere in the world has made one penny of profit ever yet he still spends fortunes that funnel through his accounts without origin trace
Scotland should be well aware of this as his golf courses make and have never made any profit whatsoever
This is beside the point. What Ken said, and I agree with, is that the Bidens are linked to corruption in Ukraine. Google Burisma.
Also, Joe Biden is mentally impaired according to a judge who says he’s not fit to stand trial.
None of that is anything to do with Vladimir Putin. Yes I know VP said he prefers Biden when asked in an interview. Here is his response according to RT.
“Biden. He is a more experienced and predictable person, he is a politician of the old sort. But we will work with any leader who gets the confidence of the American people,” he said.
Putin addressed the media reports about Biden’s cognitive decline by saying he hadn’t really seen it when he met with the US leader in Switzerland three years ago.
“So what if he whacked his head coming out of a helicopter? Who among us hasn’t hit his head on a helicopter, let him cast the first stone,” Putin said. “I am not a doctor.”
https://www.rt.com/news/592454-trump-biden-better-for-russia/
So the early 1990’s recession led to the Wipeout of the Tories as a political force in Scotland, and saw Scots vote 74% Yes for semi-independence.
The the great recession of 2008/9 crush Labour in Scotland and catapulted the SNP from minority to majority government in 2011, leading to 14 years of them in power, and baseline Yes climbing year on year.
Then the 2020 covid recession saw a Yes wave which peaked at 54% average and frightened the bejesus out of Westminster, hence Gove’s secret report.
Now the Brecession England created due to its arrogance and racism is hitting us, with Yes starting out from a baseline low of over 50% ‘tomorrow’ no questions asked.
Recessions are extremely bad for the union. They have been the single biggest cause of major political change in Scotland, and we can expect that pattern to continue.
The economic case for the UK already lies battered and broken on the floor post brexit, and that’s before the effects of this English Brecession start to filter through.
Your obsession with ‘racism’ is getting wearisome…. Racism is ‘learned’, and can be weaponised as we saw with Brexit reprising 1930s Germany.
It can equally be unlearned as millions of Irish would tell you if you lived there and had the faintest notion to listen.
England is a racist country, it’s ingrained in every aspect of English life and they don’t acknowledge it because they live it without thinking
As for the Irish, they don’t concern themselves with racism anymore because they don’t have much of it since they rid themselves of England and became what they wanted to be, a self determining country equal to any other, and not what England described them as previously, which was *subhuman* as Scots were described as “uncivilised”
England cannot unlearn that which they cannot be convinced they are
I am not sure what you are on about. I have said it’s learned many times.
That doesn’t change the fact it was the learned driving force behind Brexit, as per every poll on the subject. Relentless government and media teaching got us Brexit, from Brown’s ‘British jobs for British workers’ to Farage’s posters of endless refugee queues.
The English government continues to teach the danger foreigners like my wife pose, including us Scots (and the Irish of course). Any minority is fair game – trans really getting it right now.
As for Ireland, I have no idea what you are on about too. Maybe mum / gran have been hiding something? I’m open to hearing what they ‘unlearned’. 🙂
Latest from England.
I’ve said before I’m uncomfortable with the idea the “the English” are racist. That is in itself a racist comment, as if every single English person is a racist. There are nasty people in every community and nation and it is for the government to uproot it and make sure it doesn’t gain traction.
Certain conditions promote fear and hatred of the “other” such as poverty and deprivation. It’s easy for unscrupulous governments such as the Tory government to redirect people’s rage onto vulnerable groups such as immigrants when all the time it is the rich and privileged who are the cause of the austerity.
Finally, we must counter the accusation that we support independence because we hate the English. That’s another divide and conquer meme circulated by the unionists.
You make very good points.
However I feel you have not accepted the basic premise that
“all humans are racist to a greater or lesser extent”.
this concept was eloquently articulated by Sir Walter Scott
(for ‘man’ insert human or person, the concept holds true today)
Breathes there the man, with soul so dead,
Who never to himself hath said,
This is my own, my native land!
Whose heart hath ne’er within him burn’d,
As home his footsteps he hath turn’d,
From wandering on a foreign strand!
If such there breathe, go, mark him well;
For him no Minstrel raptures swell;
High though his titles, proud his name,
Boundless his wealth as wish can claim;
Despite those titles, power, and pelf,
The wretch, concentred all in self,
Living, shall forfeit fair renown,
And, doubly dying, shall go down
To the vile dust, from whence he sprung,
Unwept, unhonour’d, and unsung.
The limits on what is an acceptable level of racism as with many other concepts is set by the society we live in, or the one we strive to create for ourselves.
Other society’s may accept different limits to ours, this does not make us or them wrong, just different.
And it is not for governments to set the limits of what is acceptable.
Governments should reflect the values and ethics of the society they serve as managers for the common good.
So you see ‘the english’ are racist, so are the Scots, and the Welsh, or the Irish, or the Swiss. Scratch anyone and you will find racism to a greater or lesser extent.
I don’t equate the love of home or homeland with hatred of others. I think it’s OK to love your own culture and people and also to love the diversity of other cultures and peoples.
The US spends $740Billion a year on the military. Redundant weaponry.
1/3 of all the world spend. $2110Billion. 340 million population.
China 1.4Billion spends $228Billion. Russia 150Million spends $65Billion.
Saudi Arabia 33 million (11Million migrants) spends $69Billion.
The Catholics in Ireland were discriminated against. Prohibited from owning a horse (travel), owning weapons, or owning land. Just like in Scotland.
The Irish in Ireland were discriminated against by the British / English.
My Irish family were protestant, and were discriminated against for being Irish / not supporting the union.
All that the British/Anglo political parties (including Labour) have to offer Scotland is Lies,damned Lies and GERS.
The biggest lie of them all is that we voted as a UK to leave the EU.
Either that or they no longer regard NI as being part of the UK.
The fact that the Westminster establishment is prepared to uphold the result of democratic votes in England and NI but not Scotland should tell all Scots how they are regarded by them.
Constitutional arguments aside,the SNP must expose the economic damage done to our economy by Brexit in order to satisfy demands in England.
Not our union.
Indeed, England claims we are 4 great nations one minute then one nation when it suits their agenda
If we are four then we must count as one of four, but we don’t when we differ from England, who then insist we are one
They make the rules own the pitch the goalposts and the referee
It’s classic monarchial rule
It’s never gone away.
The English BBC makes it even worse by trying to twist the story into it being ‘Troublesome Travellers’ that are a problem, and by inference, England’s Pontins wasn’t intending to block ‘good Irish’.
Totally revolting.
https://archive.is/HtQGk
Pontins discriminated against Irish
Holiday park operator Pontins has apologised after being issued a legal notice for “shocking” discrimination towards Irish…
…The Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) found Pontins had created a list of common Irish surnames labelled as “undesirable guests”.
It said staff were told to decline or cancel bookings made under those names or by people with Irish accents.
Full list of names here:
https://www.irishnews.com/news/northern-ireland/here-are-all-of-the-irish-names-on-the-pontins-blacklist-HIPWGGTJOJFH5AVB4C6D2BIJ6I/
This is Brexit Britain for you. Comes on the back of born and bred UK citizens having artistic funding grants withdrawn due to them being ‘Irish’.
Scots are next. We’ve already had our voting rights withdrawn. We can vote, but only for the union.
Labour will not be winning in the NE, that’s for sure.
England’s plan is to destroy the area and take every penny they can from Scotland before we vote Yes.
The oil and gas companies are the same companies now building windfarms, CO2 disposal sites and hydrogen storage reservoirs. I’ve gone from 95% oil and gas studies, to 50% green as a consultant over my 24 year career. It’s only going one way.
Destroying the Scottish clean energy transition industry in this way will not just harm the economy, but the environment.
Labour would never win in the NE. Aberdeen was Labour since the war but rural areas were traditionally Liberal or Tory. Now the SNP are the main rivals to the Tories. I think the underlying message is that the Tories are the only viable alternative to the SNP and so to save the Union you know who to vote for.
Prof Robertson has an article on it written by stewartb of this parish.
Labour won 2 MSPs in the NE in 2021 and 11 Aberdeen city councillors in 2022. Hopefully both these numbers decline.
Mercedes Villalba and Michael Marra are both Dundee. The 11 Labour councillors in Aberdeen are to be expected. As I said, Aberdeen was Labour since 1945.
It’s the world cup, now name one country England isn’t unpleasant about
It’s not anti English to want to avoid the word of a nation that cannot be trusted to keep it
It’s not anti English to want to do what 65 other countries have done because of the same nation
Many of us have English relatives, in my case my own mother, but that cannot excuse the predatory nature of that country that has always taught the values of Empirical Monarchy which by its very nature is dictatorial and has the presumption of the approval of an almighty God
No peoples on earth that has ever been predated upon has stopped to consider which of its predators it might like given such considerations
They can’t take the time to like any of them, that part only comes after the predators stop killing them
Anti Englishness is an English propaganda invention to hurl as an accusation at those who would disagree with them, it’s page one foot stamping child psychology
Fall for it and they own you
I blame the Normans. The poor English were defeated by them in 1066 and have been under their foot ever since.
Re Capellas post at 7.13pm tonight which I cannot reply to in normal way as the thread is so long re Joe and Hunter Biden. Hunter Biden has been charged with corruption and other crimes but as yet has not been convicted of anything . His father has not been charged with any crime. Robert Hur who wrote the report about Joe Biden mishandling documents when he was Vice President and made comments about his memory has never been a judge. He was a United States attorney, a District Attorney and is a lawyer. He is also a rampant Republican. I am not a huge fan of America or Biden now mostly because of Americas inaction on Gaza situation to help Palestinian civilians . This has partially lead me to believe Biden is too old to run again as president because likely his memory is not that good. However I do not think it is a good idea to pick info from Twitter (X) or other dodgy websites which are riven with fake news as proof that the Biden:s are corrupt. I do find it ironic or slightly funny when socialists post a good view of Putin and his actions. This is a man who by aid of his officials stopped someone who is anti war against Ukraine even standing in the forthcoming general election in Russia. Putin might still call himself a communist but he is the proverbial evil dictator who wants to leave a legacy that beats his hero Stalin. Stalin who killed 10 million of his own people. Remember him.
Apologies I should have said Special Counsel, not judge. You will find the report on the BBC website, not X/twitter:
No charge for Biden over classified documents but report questions memory
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68245617
Vladimir Putin is not a communist. His political party is called United Russia although he is unaffiliated as President and not leader of the party. He is standing for re-election in March. The Communist Party is the main opposition party.
If by opposition you meant Navalny, I don’t know whether his trial and guilty verdict for embezzlement and extremism are justified.
Capella It was not Navalny I was talking about although I believe he was fitted up on charges by the Russian government.See link below for who I mean
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/08/russian-anti-war-candidate-boris-nadezhdin-says-he-is-barred-from-election&ved=2ahUKEwj83OTK2K-EAxXMRkEAHZ9KCAIQFnoECBYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3hX9P3qqAmfRuCtRGbBN_m
By the way It has just been announced on BBC TV that Alexei Navalny big opponent has died in prison. Strange how many people who opposed Putin die
RT also announced the death of Navalny but no details as yet.
I had never heard of Boris Nadezhdin. However, Putin’s popularity ratings are so high it’s doubtful that any other candidate has much chance of winning.
He was interviewed on CH4 News recently
https://www.channel4.com/news/anti-war-putin-rival-banned-from-russia-election
Thx for posting. Not a surprise, either for accusations of ballot rigging from the electoral commission nor persecution by Nadezhdin.
Putin the dictator is so ingrained in Western perception I’d be surprised if the media said anything else. They’re masters of the art of perception management.
Rare venture into Brexit Time. 5 minutes in I think the Tory and Labour representatives may come to blows.
Mad stuff. I think I’ll take the pooch out for a pee instead.
You seriously think I take BBC reporting about anything seriously. Putin’s doctrine rolled back the little democracy Russia had . At heart he is an old style totalitarian dictator raised in a communist state just like Stalin was. Once a communist thug always a communist thug. Doesn’t matter what he called his party.Russian exceptionalism is no better than the American or English kind The alternative to Biden is Trump I would rather have Biden with a dodgy memory any day than a fascist Trump who will quite happily turn the USA into an ultra racist state with him being President for life and his kids succeeding him when he eventually does snuff it .For American women think the Handmaids Tale on steroids It was your post at 2.52pm yesterday from Robert F Kennedy Junior that was from X.com aka Twitter. Not a site worthy of serious comment about anything. Incidentally Robert F Kennedy Junior is an anti vaccer.
Absolutely.
A vote for Trump may be the last vote they ever have.
I assume this is directed at me.
No I don’t expect anyone to take the BBC seriously. I don’t. But they have some shred of integrity left and wouldn’t print direct quotes if they are not actually quoting.
I also use the evidence of my own eyes and ears. I’ve seen several examples of Biden’s confusion and inability to answer a question to conclude that he does have some degree of dementia.
The Robert F Kennedy jr clip was from X/Twitter but the substance of his remarks are valid. The influence of the MIC in policy making has consequences in terms of lives lost and refugees displaced. The current finance bill stalled in Congress asks for over $100 billion for three theatres of war, Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. Profits to Blackrock.
Your belief that Vladimir Putin is a communist thug and Donald Trump is fascist may well be true. Your sources of information are clearly different to mine.
Trump has a cheek electioneering on fitness, the guy’s got a 50″ waist and is one Big Mac meal deal away from a heart explosion, a 15 year old girl could kick his backside
Do the voters he appeals to think he’s going to go out and fight with people?
He’s got burger meat for brains and takes his orders from Vlad the boss that pays his debts for him
Do Americans think they need a dangerous big mouth for President or a slower Joe Biden who’ll take his time to consider what he’s doing
If they just want a fast talker they could elect Billy Crystal for President, he’s a much better comedian than Trump
When looking up the results, I saw the Wellingborough one first and thought that maybe I was wrong in expectations; labour had stood still or maybe gained some support.
Then I saw Kingswood and nope, they’ve gone pretty badly backwards again on 2019.
Turnout / Labour votes / share of registered electorate
Kingswood
37.1% / 11,176(-5,316) / 16.7(-7.2)%
Wellingborough
38.1% / 13,844(+107) / 17.4(+0.4)%
These are not good results for Labour, again.
In such contests, it’s expected that the incumbent’s voters stay at home if they want to give their party a kick up the bum, but with the plan that they’ll likely ‘come home’ at the next election. If they’ve absolutely had enough and like the look of the opposition, they’d even turn out and vote for them instead.
In contrast, enthusiastic opposition voters seeing the incumbent in trouble should be turning out to hasten their demise. Really pile on the pressure to break them before the campaigns even begin. And if there is such swing to the opposition, their share of the total electorate should even be up.
These two factors combine to give by-election upsets, although they are often overturned at the next election when the incumbents voters turn out again / come home, especially if they are in a traditionally safe seat for said incumbents.
I see the normal incumbent (Tory) pattern here, but Labour lost a huge share of the electorate in Kingswood. Why did these people not come out to vote? Are they warming to the Tories?
No, it’s because there is no point to Keir Starmer and Labour are offering no change. That’s why. Hence the low turnouts and Labour going backwards when a popular opposition heading for office should be building steady support.
This, I keep emphasising, is why Labour is polling at the same level of the total electorate as it was when it suffered its worst defeat since 1935 in 2019. They are not popular at all, and losing support. This is seen in VI edging down, even with the turnout advantage they are enjoying. It’s particularly evident in Starmer’s increasingly negative ratings.
So another result that says the coming UKGE is going to be a messy one with neither of the big two winning the level of democratic mandate needed for any sort of political stability.
The people of the above constituencies now have MPs that 83% of them didn’t vote for. This bodes ill.
Agreed, I’ve been having a good look this morning at these fantastic overwhelming Labour victories where their opponent didn’t bother to turn up to fight
It reminded me very much of the Rutherglen by election
I could be wrong but it looks very much like mid term who gives a shit voting patterns
Hence the Beeb et al promoting the ‘swing’ fairy to the exclusion of all else…
As % of electorate, those pissed off over both acts in the Westminster circus are in an increasing majority in England, these two results prove the point…
Turnout and voting intentions are important. However, as Curtice has pointed out, the last time there was a consistent run of very low turnouts for by-elections it resulted in the very low turnout general election of 2001 of 59%…pretty much in line with voting intentions this year. As in 2001 it looks like Labour will benefit from Tory apathy and Reform splitters. Will Starmer care if he takes 42% of 59% and wins a landslide of seats. I suspect he will declare it the iron will of the British electorate and a mandate to implement…well that remains to be seen as they don’t seem to have much of a policy other than “Careful Now”.
The real worry thereafter is that Labour preside over a worsening economy and a flailing in the dark culture war. Leaving the way open for a more extreme “Reformed” Tory Party.
And in England, what can voters to stop him, even if they know he’s no mandate due to the low turnout. Not a lot as two Tory cheeks of the same erse have the whole thing stitched up.
But that doesn’t apply in Scotland, with Holyrood 2026 a potential referendum on independence. And how could he stop that without ending devolution, so breaking labour at the border completely, sending most Scots Labour voters to indy? What then, stop UKGE’s in Scotland so scots can’t vote for indy that way either? This path leads to the worlds press watching Scots take to the streets in their hundreds of thousands, holding hands around holyrood as their leaders declare UDI, union flags are taken down and symbols of it toppled. Scots are no different to east Germans, eastern Europeans, Irish… Oppress them and they will rise up against the oppressors.
Nope, the UK is sleepwalking into the crisis that will end it, while the idiot Starmer dances around some silling mid term polling and seats Labour won because people don’t want them anymore (Scotland, soon N. Ireland with Wales catching up) or hate his party only slightly less than the Tories.
Meanwhile, if the current recession has it’s usual tectonic plate shifting effect on the Scottish indy movement – which seems to be the case given the surge in support for indy amongst unionist voters in Q3/4 – the UK may have just a couple of years left at most.
And the funnies thing I read today was Sarwar saying we need to vote Labour so he can stand up to a hated English Labour government if they do bad things to Scotland. With this sort of idiocy now going around, you know the end is close.
But voters in England have little or no choice, red/blue tories.
Happily, here in Scotland, we DO have a different choice, yet seem to prefer arguing amongst ourselves (isn’t that always our failing??).
My personal desperation for independence is growing by the hour/day/week – come on SNP/Green/Alba get your acts together – give us hope!!
Putin has improved the Russia economy. 150Million have gained self governance and self determination. USSR 300 million pop. Glasnost and Perestroika. Now Russia 150Million pop. Putin supported Scottish Independence. Cameron tried to get Putin to come out against it.
Johnston caused the Ukraine War. Tried to get Trump involved as Foreign Secretary. Trump refused.
26 million Russian died in WW2, saving the West. 1/2 Million in Britain died. 1/2million died in France.
Latest turnout projections UK wide:
51% Yougov
49% Survation
This sort of turnout would basically invalidate the election result. In a by election, ok… in some sort of regional or council election, again, not great, but they’re not in charge of the whole county with their finger on the nuke button etc.
But in UK-wide election? OMG. A party with the support of barely 20% of the electorate with absolute power? Labour would have no mandate at all if this came true, and could face country-wide protests as a result. These have already begun in earnest, and the effects of the recession are now starting to feed in, adding to the cost of living crisis.
Things look very grim for the union. Reminds me of the run-up to 2011, except back then, Yes was 30%, not 50%+ ‘tomorrow’.
Oh, and SNP were on low 30’s with Labour on 45%.
Speaking of tomorrow, let’s wait and see how large the protest of Labour’s own members outside the conference venue is going to be, and will the media show us all the pictures, because it will be embarrassing
As Anas Sarwar in his speech repeats the word *change* 60 times at his party conference STVs Colin McKay described it as an attempt at a Jedi mind trick
what it is is a cheap propaganda trick, a slogan a catch phrase like the Chuckle Brothers “To me to you” or *Stop the boats* it signifies nothing because it means nothing
Sarwar also banged on about Scotland being at the heart of government, well which government where? he can only mean England, and yet he can’t say sentences like that out loud in England, for if he did the population of England would immediately vote against Labour at the very idea of anything Scottish having the slightest affect on their parliament, that’s why there has always been a fear of the SNP, and why Miliband lost a general election followed by Corbyn
So if we analyse Sarwar’s speech we find that apart from the 60 time repeated word “change” Sarwar actually said nothing whatsoever, and if you’ve followed Anas Sarwar’s career that’s what he’s always said
All in all *this is not the party you want* I can do Jedi as well
It does look like Labour will run for election with no polices / manifesto commitments at all. Apart from, that is, to tax the hell of the jocks and put much of Aberdeenshire out of work to subsidise the coke junkies in the south of England.
Sarwar says we need to vote Labour so he can fight our corner and stop this. Which shows you how crazily deluded unionism has become as it hangs on for dear life in the face of a pro-reunification NoI FM and 50%+ for Yes in Scotland.
More like these are not the policies Scotland is looking for kind of Jedi mind trick. To paraphrase the Great Master Yoda Through the Force Labour you see the future, the past ……. always in motion is the future. Damn Starmer uturned on another policy
Ken I do not know where you read all this stuff about Russia but there is absolutely no democracy in Russia , no TV stations or newspapers not controlled by Putin and his oligarch crooks. Putin and that lot arranged for the Russian constitution to be changed so that he could continue as President whereas the constitution originally said no president could serve more than 2 terms. All the democratic reforms Gorbachev brought in have been ended. There are no fair and free elections in Russia haven’t been for quite a few years
Yes a lot of folk from USSR died in WW2 but USSR imposed communist regimes on East Germany Poland, Czechoslovakia etc after the war. Stalin president of USSR during WW2 was originally allied with Hitler/Nazi Germany until Germany decided to invade USSR. Stalin had many millions of Russians killed during his time as President and his policies caused many Ukrainians to starve to death. There is nothing good about Putin he is downright evil and ended all the democratic reforms in Russia so please think about you are reading and writing Practically every politician or activist in Russia who opposed Putin has ended up dead or in prison in recent years.
If Putin ruled Scotland he would have all Snp politicians murdered or in prison because they support Independence and they would not be allowed to stand in elections. Scotland being ruled by Westminster is bad enough. Please do not believe everything about Russia you see on the internet because a lot of it is fake news.2 years ago Putin had Russia invade Ukraine for absolutely no reason (Ukraine is a sovereign and independent country) He broke international law by doing that is blatantly obvious. Many Russia soldiers have been killed in that war as have many Ukrainian soldiers and civilians.
Oh, even funnier, is Labour claiming they are the only party ‘championing change’, with the rest ‘wanting the status quo’, while at the same time attacking the SNP for pushing for independence.
Unless indy is the new status quo and going back to devo in the union would be ‘change’?
I’m lost. The UK’s gone mad.
Sarwar (Starmer ‘s ventriloquist’s dummy ) in his conference rant , highlighting the absence of Labour policies , has complained because the SNP Government has been concentrating its actions on helping the people of Scotland ( social policies ) . He thinks that this is not acceptable as they should be spending their monies on economic policies .
Given that , for the last 14 years of Tory Government , Scotland has been dealt cut after cut in the share of our OWN money being sent back to Holyrood and with crippling blows being dealt to the poorest in society through Welfare cuts from Westminster , the Scottish Government has CHOSEN to help people as its first priority .
Clearly millionaire and privately educated Sarwar does not understand that ordinary Scottish families have no recourse to daddy’s money or fat dividends from a business that chooses NOT to pay The Living Wage to his workers .
Ordinary folk can see that this Labour man ( sic ) has all the empathy of a wealthy rich kid who has been privileged all his life , had his career handed to him by daddy’s friends in the Scottish ( sic ) Labour Party , who can treat HIS family to the best education money can buy yet still condemn Scotland’s education system using dodgy stats , who daily belittles our NHS while treating himself and his own to private Health Care , hypocritically condemns the House of Lords yet will support the elevation of numerous Labour apparatchiks to that running sore on the face of democracy ….
As mentioned elsewhere , he talked for an hour but said nothing – except Change , Change , Change … if he really wants CHANGE he and his comrades
( Apologies , Sir Keir ! That word is a vile obscenity in YOUR Labour Party !)
…if he , Sarwar , really wants CHANGE he could start with revoking the TWO CHILD Cap on Welfare , restoring the 10 Pledges that his boss made in order to get elected , giving the Scottish Parliament the DEMOCRATIC right to decide what happens in Scotland , etc ….. there is room on your manifesto , Anas , as it appears , at the moment , to be a blank sheet of paper .
Anas is the loose change candidate.
🙂
If you said “A penny for his thoughts” you’d get no takers.
Putin is not Stalin. He has the people support and has made people more prosperous. The Russian go on holiday in Thailand etc. Just like everyone else. They do not have two horns. Just ordinary people. After the 1990 the economy changed.
Stalin had five year plans and the harvest failed. Famine. The West had WW1 and the Depression. Millions died. The Tsar invaded Germany. The Royal family disputes. The ‘divine right to rule’. Millions died worldwide. The Russian Revolution 1917. The people ere serfs and ere starving.
Russia spends less on the military. NATO should not have missiles trained on the Russia borders. None of the rest of them would but up with that. Especially after WW2 still in living memory. Putin keeps control of the autocrats who stole Russians monies. Many exiled to the West giving monies to political Parties. To try and influence elections etc. Putin will not let foreign companies (US) to try and control the economy and tax evade.
The EU was formed to stop wars and starvation in Europe. The last thing Germany and Rusdia want is War in Europe. Russia wants to secure its borders which it has right to do. Ukraine regime is corrupt and will not win a fight against Russia even with NATO’s help. They will have to negotiate.
Julian Assuage is in jail. A political prisoner. The Irish conflicts. The US/UK bombing the Middle East to bits. The US has been at war worldwide since WW2. Killing millions.
The Americans want it stopped. That is why they vote for Trump. There is still abortion in some States. Trump made the mistake of appointing a religious woman to the Judiciary, so did the Congress. They said they were fooled. Lost the woman’s vote.
Well Ken I don’t like America much either these days but you clearly believe every bit of Russian propaganda you have ever read. I think you would have a different view of Russia if you actually lived there where you cannot say anything against Putin or his government If you support Scottish Independence how can you believe it is ok for another country to invade Ukraine.
@ ‘were ‘.
OK, so here’s the really important news for today.
Morrisons have the small Easter eggs at half price – 75p – for those with a more card. I think we left you some.
So Star Wars, ‘the Two Faced Menace’ has hit our screens with this comment from a young labour activist, outside the conference:-
“It was really refreshing to hear a senior Labour politician stand up and say unequivocally that. One, we need a ceasefire. Two, we need a Palestinian state – not, as he said, as a gift from a neighbour but as a right.”
How can these smart young people not see the hypocrisy in these statements.
It’s a must have for Palestine so much so that they will make political statements and demonstrate for it on Saturday.
For the country where they live ‘not so much’ of a must have.
Is it a requirement for them that they experience a labour ‘con’ first hand. Because if so by the time they understand the treachery and deceit it will be too late. We will be stuck in another five year cycle of death and destruction in our own country.
Because make no mistake people have and will die as a result of the policies of a foreign government.
Finally the truth is beginning to leak out on the recent England by-elections, albeit not via the BBC etc., but Byline Times…
Yes, the situation is deeply troubling. UK democracy is no longer functioning.
Labour may win, but they’ll not have any sort of popular mandate, meaning it will not end well. Absolute power with no democratic mandate is a very scary prospect. It leads down a dark path.
Things are going to get very, very bad in the UK, socially and economically. If you think it’s already bad, then prepare for far worse.
Which is why we really need to leave, and by 2026 at the latest.
Every one of those people he spoke were suffering from a large dose of buyers remorse. I mean they actually voted for Johnson and the other misfits in his Tory party knowing exactly what they were getting.
Hell mend them.
Democracy is dead in the UK. Do we have any hope of reviving it in Scotland?
Think not revival but recreation, rewriting so many wrongs via final independence from Empire where the sun never set…
England and Scotland by side-effect suffers from propaganda at a level I needed to shift to Ireland to fully comprehend – The analogy of UK = Goldfish Bowl, the English are the goldfish in the Irish analogy, they swim in their own little world oblivious to what is going on elsewhere other than what is fed them.
A perfect couple of examples cropped up in recent days from BBC Scotland, not there to inform but to disinform – One was on anti-semitism, the other was on nursing studies enrollment falling – Both were deliberate features in advance of stories about to emerge in England, the objective clearly to paint Scotland to Scots as ‘just as bad’.
So yes we can restore democracy, but we must also demand ‘honesty’ of our media on penalty of being shut down if they promote propaganda, that pretty much knackers the current incumbents….
Yes, that is the iron grip over the “narrative” which now blankets the entire West in a fog of disinformation. The internet still provides some glimpses of reality but even that is rapidly being shut down – deliberately. Democracy can only survive where people have access to real information and real debate on which to make decisions.
I would like the independence movement to suspend any promises of where Scotland will be after independence because that depends on the people making their choices based on real information. The point is that we will choose. What we choose is up to all of us.
As for Branchform, is that going to be stretched out to Holyrood 2026?
SNP losing a lot of seats due to a low turnout doesn’t help the union in any way. If it did, 2017 would have seen the end of the cause. so if that’s the outcome the UKGE this year, Yes will continue it’s forward march as before.
Nope, you need Scots to go back to voting unionist in Scotland’s own national elections, and UK elections, as they once did.
UK elections are not that important to Scots as they are not our country’s elections now, not unless they are a way to end the union. 2021 saw the importance of the parliaments swap around. Now polls show Scots say they are notably more likely to vote in a Scottish election than a UK one; a result of Scots leaving the union in their hearts and minds. This occurred, unsurprisingly, when the 50% Yes settled will Rubicon was crossed.
SNP voters could all stay at home later this year and it wouldn’t improve the situation one iota for the union. In fact it would be an unmitigated disaster. Scots would not even be sending MPs south to take part, but be mass boycotting. We are facing barely a third of Scots saying they want an MP in Westminster (i.e. plan to vote unionist) in current polling. That is seriously grim for the union. It’s far worse than 2015 where the message was ‘Ok, so we are staying for now, we accept that, but we are going to speak up by sending a load of SNP to sit in your parliament!’.
So the last thing the union needs is Branchform is wound up before the 2026 election with no wrongdoing discovered. The effect it had on SNP polling would most likely not just be undone, but swing back the other way to damage the unionists badly as people felt they’d been lied to all along by these and their media.
Nope, Sturgeon needs to be jailed for fingers in the till before 2026, or Branchform will seriously harm the union, and ahead of what will likely be the final Scottish election as part of the UK.
Meanwhile, we face Scotland, England, the North of Ireland and Wales getting hated English labour government no nation voted for, sparking a constitutional crisis of epic proportions.
An ill wind is blowing across the UK as as a serious storm brews.
It doesn’t matter which party is elected by England in the next general election now because whichever one it is will not be there on merit but by the demerit of the other party, making whichever one is elected almost by default the most unpopular political party in history, and once again highlighting in extreme measure that Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland will be dragged down with England’s choice of the lack of choice
The point of democracy is to vote FOR something, England has now totally removed the very concept of democracy leaving the population only the no choice option of not voting or voting against just like another country in the news right now, eh Russia isn’t it?
Between them the Tories and Labour parties have created a British Russia while in Scotland we await criminal charges sentencing and imprisonment of Nicola Sturgeon for eh, what was her crime again?
Oh aye, the authorities are pretending on behalf of the people to want to know what some of the SNPs own money was spent on, or translated into the new Russian English, dissent and disdain of Westminster
Don’t think it can’t happen, it’s happening now, bit by bit by bit
Isn’t it amazing how Anas Sarwar and Donald Trump look and sound exactly alike now
Why is the independence supporting National newspaper entertaining political party broadcasts for union leader Roz Foyer begging her beloved Labour party to do what the SNP is already doing, yet she deliberately avoids mentioning the SNP
Trades unions, Labour party, joined by the same arteries to the same beating heart of English undemocratic unionism, one for all and all for England
So I saw my first food with security tags on it at the coop in Alford today. Steaks at £7-8.
That’s where we are now. And they’re not stealing those to eat; there are cheaper items that the shop won’t tag that offer more food for the risk. Also there’s the food bank.
Nope, people are stealing £7 steaks to sell for maybe £3.50, which puts the power back on for a while. Maybe long enough to wash the kid’s clothes for school.
This is the union, and what Starmer plans to keep doing with his ‘fiscal responsibility’ etc.
Broke my heart ahead of Christmas when the local foodbank was asking for selection packs, chocolate coins and other stocking fillers again.
When I was young, I remember we donated to starving kids in Africa. Now, thanks to English rule, these are in Inverurie.
And all the while, England milks the area for every penny it can with the ‘windfall tax on Scots’. Starmer will squeeze the teat tighter, putting 10’s of thousands out of work and into the foodbank queues.
#changeScotland
Fresh meat and alcohol have been tagged in supermarkets in France for 30 yrs SS, indeed most major cities across Europe.
Golfnut
As my second country, I’ve been to countless French supermarkets and can report that I have never once seen tagging, even on spirits. My French family have never seen this on meat.
But then France has a welfare state.
Tagging on spirits has been around in the UK variably since these were shelved elsewhere than behind the counter. These are high value items…easy £25+ starting price. But a £7 steak?
The first time in 47 years of life that have ever seen meat in plastic security box for real anywhere in world was today.
Actually SS, tagging meat and Spirits started 30 yrs ago pioneered by super market chains in France, Belgium and Holland. The manufacturing plant and European HQ was based in Belgium. How do I know this, because I worked for them. The tagging system development is an intriguing story and led to RFID systems and coding which is used to track you round the world.
Golfnut
Yes, but your point isn’t relevant to my original one. I was observing a change in the circumstances of the country. Maybe in some supermarkets they’ve used security tags on meat, e.g. in a less well off area, but was not a common, everyday sight, hence me never having seen it my entire life, outside of recent newspaper reports.
I shopped many local coops in the Borders and the Tesco in Galashiels. Never once did I see a steak in a security box in 17 years there, and that’s with e.g. Gala having some pretty low income estate areas. We buy nice steak semi-regularly as both Mrs SS and Mini Mis SS like one now and again.
I moved to the NE around 8 months ago, and again the local coops had no meat tagging. Then I’m in Alford yesterday and now the steaks are being put in security boxes. So I’m reporting what others UK-wide are. this ties in with the newspaper reports of rising shoplifting as the use of foodbanks rise. People are stealing to eat and to make ends meet.
It is a product of the destruction of the welfare state by England’s government, combined with the cost of living crisis created by England’s government compounded by England’s choice of Brexit. People are now having to steal to get by. People in work. It’s not mainly drug addicts stealing for a fix these days, but mums trying to get clothes for the kids etc. Hence foodbanks asking for stocking fillers to give to working parents who can’t afford anything for their kids at Christmas now.
At my last work, we found out once that the (once a week contractor) cleaning lady had been sitting in the dark at the end of the month because she’d had an unexpected bill. Pay day was a week away though, so she ran out of power. She was too proud to ask anyone for help. Luckily she did confide in the admin lady and finally agreed to be lent some money to top up the meter. Would not accept a handout. When Christmas came in a month or so, we gave her a gift as usual, but this time part of it was in cash to ‘spend on what she liked’.
Then there was my previous neighbour who had mental health troubles. Very intelligent, but had very bad spells mentally. In one of these, he was take to hospital. The DWP were informed because he missed an appointment. When he got out, him, partner and child ran out of food because England had sanctioned his disability support. So he had to come to my door and ask if we had any food to spare. This was before the cost of living crisis.
This is the union and it’s getting worse.
Not sure how to reply to your comment SS other than to say that I speak with some authority having spent a good number of yrs in the security industry and can assure you that what I have said is true whatever your or your families personal experiences were/are.
Golfnut
Single malt whisky tagged here in Extremadura (Spain), but never seen meat tagged
How Russian state media are spinning Alexei Navalny death
The UK state broadcaster giving you the news where you are. What a riddy!
There’s plenty of comment on RT (aka Putin’s propaganda tool) about Navalny.
RT is for Western eyes and ears not Russian.
OK, I looked at the Russian language version and there are several articles on Navalny there which, judging by the photos are covering the same detail. I didn’t read them all though as I’m not that fluent.
RT is not broadcast inside Russia, the state broadcasters in the country will all have their very own version of the news. Much like here in fact.
Strange then that it lists Russia in its “where to watch” section and almost all the cable and satellite channels have Russian names. Their documentaries are mostly in Russian with English subtitles. But I don’t live in Russia so I wouldn’t know.
I enjoy France 24. It has a mix of French ‘documentaries’ with English subtitles or in English. It’s ‘French’, but aimed at an international audience.
The difference is you can watch French news for the French easy enough, warts and all. But then it’s in the EU, so has free movement of media in addition to the other free movement pillars of the bloc.
From a look, doing the same seems very difficult for Russia if you are not in Russia.
You can get over the virtual Iron curtain with a VPN, but most of the popular / known ‘western’ companies (such as the one I have) don’t have servers there, presumably for a reason (= not allowed).
What we can be sure of, is that Russians are watching BBC propaganda Putin style. Which we might imagine would make the BBC jealous in terms of level of disinformation that’s being happily broadcasted.
I mean Jeez, imagine young Scots were dying in their thousands after being forced to the front by England to take the sovereign land of e.g. Ireland in a war of attrition? That’s what’s happening to young Russian men from the different peoples that make up the state when it comes to Ukraine. To sell that on telly to the public would take serious propaganda contortions.
If we can’t see what Russian state TV is actually broadcasting to Russians, then this cannot be good. No reason to hide it otherwise.
The EU banned Russian broadcasting two years ago. That’ll be why you can’t access it.
BTW you need to find some reliable sources of information because your knowledge of what is happening on the battlefield seems to have come from the Daily Heil.
BTW you need to find some reliable sources of information because your knowledge
You too. Tell us when you have and provide links.
Russia is sacrificing 10 men to Ukraine’s 1 just to win rubble that doesn’t belong to him, kinda shows how much of a sane caring individual Putin is, and how far he’s prepared to go
Yep Dr Jim I totally agree . Re Capellas previous comment to Skier if you only read or watch only Russian sources or their affiliates you get full on Russian propaganda . You could argue you just get the same from Western media but there is far more diversity in Western media than in Russia. I quite often watch Al Jazeera and Euronews. Russian sources have announced that more than 300 people have been arrested for protesting about or putting down flowers in memory of Alexei Navalny. Russia government does this when an opponent of Putin dies.Why?
So Capella if Russia eventually win this war to take over the whole or part of Ukraine which is an Independent country will that please you when you support Scotland’s fight for Independence. War is never good but I fully understand why the Ukrainians are fighting for their homeland which Russia has invaded. Through work I have met Ukrainians who have fled to this country. Whilst helping one of them fill in a form I had to ask whether she had a house in Ukraine. She told me technically she does but now the Russians have it. How would any of us feel if that happened to us or if our family had been bombed the hell out of as in Mariupol.
I read multiple sources, in particular Irish and French news from an international perspective. I don’t watch British/English news particularly as it’s completely alien to me and very against my countries. My main reason for looking at British sites is to see what lies and delusions they they’re spouting on a given day. I am perfectly capable of working out what I think seems to be the truth of the matter, and I make use of links to allow others to judge. The people not to trust are those that claim to know the truth / have ‘reliable sources’, yet you just need to take their word on that. No links nor factual data are ever provided to back up their arguments.
I note that Ireland is a pacifist / neutral country and has been calling for a ceasefire in Gaza (even Ireland’s centre right parties are doing this) from day 1. It knows what it’s like to be invaded by much larger, aggressive neighbour, which then partition’s off part of your territory to keep for itself. England used to tell the Irish they are all ‘really just British’, just as Putin today is arguing that Ukrainians are all ‘really just Russians’.
I go to British and American channels who collate information from many on the spot sources both Ukrainian and Russian via Telegram channels and others. They interview experts in geopolitics, logistics and military strategy. Even the BBC uses reliable sources to calculate Russian casualties which are far more accurate that the Ukrainian propaganda which right wing rags such as the Daily Mail and Telegraph use here.
I also check out the BBC website and RT and sometimes Aljazeera just to compare narratives.
But I’m not going to post links to these sources here because a) Paul has asked us not to discuss the war in Ukraine here and b) censorship is so all consuming that I don’t want to be responsible for yet more sites being cancelled.
I will just mention Gonzalo Lira, an American and Chilean Youtuber whose Roundtables I used to watch with interest. He was based in Kharkov and was very familiar with Ukraine and its nasty politics. He was arrested twice by the Ukraine security service and claimed to have been tortured in prison. He died in a Ukrainian prison in January. Although he was an American citizen the United States made no effort to have him released. It would have taken one phone call. Nor was there a Navalny style outcry in the Western media over the death of Gonzalo Lira. His Youtube site was still alive last time I looked.
One good thing may come out of the death of Navalny – Julian Assange may have a better chance of coming out of Bellmarsh alive though I’m not very optimistic. I hope so though.
Even the BBC uses reliable sources
lol. This gave me a giggle. Thanks.
I do watch Aljazeera too for a middle eastern perspective on global events.
The BBC uses Mediazona who monitor death notices and graveyards and information provided by relatives of dead soldiers. The totals arrived at are similar to official Russian MoD figures. The last time I heard of casualty lists there were an estimated 47,000 Russian casualties.
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0g26yfx
BTW “casualties” refers to both dead and severely wounded. The rule of thumb they use is 3 wounded for every dead soldier.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War#Total_casualties
The data here suggests about 2 dead / injured Russians for each Ukrainian.
Those kind of numbers would make sense to me in the circumstances.
Most estimates I have seen range from 8:1 Ukrainian to Russian dead to 18:1.
These numbers seem totally at odds with the type of conflict to extent of being just silly. Are you sure it’s not 100:1 Ukrainian to Russian? Maybe a gazillion to one? 🙂 Without any evidence to back them up, I’ll stick with the referenced 1:2 estimates, which are not outlandish, and make a lot of sense given the nature of the conflict.
The rule of thumb is that when your are fighting someone else on their territory, you will take the bigger losses in the longer term for a host of obvious reasons. You are far from home. Your supply lines are longer. You are not wanted there. Many of your soldiers don’t want to be there. The defenders you are fighting know the land better as its theirs. The locals are not out to get them, but you if they can. Your opposing defenders are motivated by patriotism while your soldiers just want to go home the moment things get difficult. etc.
The Russian invasion was a ill planned, humiliating disaster from day 1. It continues to be. Huge sums and dead soldiers are being expended fighting over a few miles of ruins. Ukraine is now the least Russian it has ever felt, unsurprisingly. If it felt Russian at all in some way before, that’s totally gone now. That’s what muscular unionism does.
That is what I see from multiple news reports, including from neutral countries with no ‘side’ in the matter.
And I will leave things there.
Wikipedia can’t be relied on for any political hot potato issue as it is heavily propagandised by armies of trolls.
Aljazeera is owned by the Qatari government who mostly cozy up to the West and may not be objective. Euronews is even worse – I wouldn’t bother.
I have been using the internet since 1995 and also have a degree in social science .I am quite capable of discerning truth from fiction that is on TV and Internet. I am well aware of the good and bad of Western Governmentsf you want to believe the Russian government and Putin are the good guys and Ukraine deserved to be invaded whilst supporting Scottish Independence that is your problem I and many others have a different opinion as we rely on facts and not the alternative kind
So I bet the conversation between Starmer and Sarwar went a bit like this, oh and maybe it will sound familiar to some
Starmer to Sarwar: you condemn Israel from our lands in the North, and I’ll support them from our lands in the South, because in the end *our lands in the north* (Scotland) don’t count because England is the UK of Great Britain, Scotland is only a colony so you can say anything you like Anas my sweet little drone boy
And cue the two Labour MPs who say, er umm well evidence er umm ah wait and see
Desperation. Unelected Cameron off to the Falklands.
Prof Robertson detects a Labour Civil War in full swing, unlike the BBC who haven’t noticed anything at all. Interesting comment btl from NMRN lately of this parish:
Mike Small in The National on the limbo we find ourselves in.
The limits of devolution and how Scotland can begin real watershed
https://archive.is/LAfle
Scottish Labour, that’s the political party that doesn’t exist, can say anything they like about anything they want, it doesn’t make it so that anything they say would or could ever happen
Take a step back in time for just a moment and remember what the Labour branch office in Scotland said about Brexit, then fast forward to now where those same people are as wedded to Brexit as they were opposed to it before it happened
This must not happen to Scotland they said, we don’t want this they said, we won’t vote for it they said, we’ll we’ll eh, when it comes to it do exactly as we’re told by our bosses in England because they have to
Scotland has lost £billions because of Brexit, Scotland has lost thousands of EU workers because of Brexit, the Labour branch in Scotland know it but their boss in England says shush the Fu*k up, England wanted it and that’s that
There’s only one autonomous political party in Scotland and that’s why the forces of darkness are trying so desperately to shut down the SNP by shutting down their finances, and whose money is that? it’s mine and yours and all SNP members because we don’t have multi £squillionaire secret donors lining up for favours from us, and why not? because Scotland is a colony of fu*king England not allowed to have its own money so Scotland’s government cannot be bribed, that’s why
The forces of darkness are not about shutting down the SNP alone, they’re shutting down me and you, the people of Scotland
Anas Sarwar is a sea going eel, he will slime his way across land sea stone and dessert to get back to the sea where he needs to spawn, and that sea for Anas Sarwar is the House of Lords where his Daddy went before him and is now a £squillionaire in the Punjab somewhere
Make no mistake about anything to do with Labour in Scotland, they represent Labour in England, they have to or they don’t survive, and Anas Sarwar is just another in the long line of Labour branch managers doing as he’s told in order to sit beside his predecessors in the big free money London restaurant where the streets of Westminster are paved with gold
If any of the opposition political parties in Holyrood were autonomous as they claim to be, with less than a tenth of the party members combined of the SNP where would and where does their finance come from
Tory Labour and Liberal Democrat couldn’t afford to hire a McDonalds for a kids party between them let alone finance an election campaign, their money comes from England as does their slimy wee jobs
Most folk don’t like George Galloway in Scotland, but there’s something he did get spot on when describing Anas Sarwar, he basically called him a privately educated silly wee boy that Nicola Sturgeon would chew up for breakfast, and George Galloway is no fan of Nicola Sturgeon, but you have to admit Georgie boy nailed it there
The steady downwards decline of Labour’s VI is there for all to see. Take away the variance wobble / ignore the post-mini budget artefactual spike, and still they have lost 5%. It’s a steady, solid march downwards. The same was happening to Blair at this stage; accelerated near the end to cost him a total of 13 points.
And this is with turnout favouring Labour due to Tory voters ‘staying at home’ with respect to both the polling booths, and agreeing to be polled.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#National_poll_results
A very unpopular party which is struggling to bring out the same number of voters it did when it suffered its ‘worst defeat since 1935’ in 2019 continues to go from weakness to weakness.
Meanwhile, the state propaganda channels tell us of ‘huge swings’ that have occurred, while allowing Starmer to freely lie that the results show people want change in the form of Labour. The polls show the opposite, as did the English council elections and all recent by-elections. These show a Labour party hated by most, and the UK heading for an unprecedented democratic / constitutional / economic / social crisis.
Losing 5,209 of your previous voters on your worst defeat in nearly a century, equivalent to 17.2% of these, is not people wanting you in power.
Good that the implications for Scotland are being realised.
https://archive.is/HC1Xw
Fears UK Government will block funding for pro-independence artists
THERE are concerns that musicians and artists who support Scottish independence could be blocked from UK Government-backed grants amid a culture compared to “McCarthyism 2.0”.
Artists have raised the alarm after the Tory government moved to overrule an independent panel and prevent the Belfast-based band Kneecap from receiving funding due to their anti-Unionist views.
We now have an English / British government withdrawing funding from artists on the basis of their national identity / nationality; their argument being that only those who identify as British / unionist should be given their own taxes back in the form of grants.
Out of interest, I took this plot back as far as I could on a Sunday morning. Found %TO data on wiki stopped at 1970.
This shows starkly the long term decline of unionism in Scotland. The combined unionist party share – i.e. for their own unionist parliament – has fallen from ~65% of the total eligible electorate, to as low as 33% in recent times (2015).
As can be seen, current polls indicate it will fall again in the coming GE, as part of the, erm ‘unionist revival’. This is why I am circumspect about this vote. Yes can’t actually lose it even if current polling panned out.
The variance around the dashed linear trend can be attributed to tactical voting with a specific aim in mind in many instances. It’s why the dead cat bounces of e.g. 1987, 2010 and 2017 were not the start of any long term revival, just waves on a falling tide.
This is driven by changes in the UK / world around Scotland, which in turn has been driving generational changes in national identity, namely the loss of Britishness in Scotland. This has has declined in every generation since the post-war baby boomers, with a particularly big fall when we enter generation devo. The under 34’s – the future – are ~75% Scottish (only) and ~75% Yes.
I should add a reminder that the 35.5% for unionists combined in current polls is quite likely an overestimate due to SNP under-sampling.
Don’t be surprised if the gradient of the 2017-2019 drop has continued, and we’re closer to 30% of the electorate planning to turn out and vote for unionist parties.
In Holyrood 2021, when the SNP, Greens and Alba stood on a pro-iref2 ticket, at the most 30% of the total Scots electorate turned out for unionist parties to stop this. So aye, the 35.5% in the graph is likely an overestimate.
Anas Sarwar caught lying on the Martin Geissler BBC Sunday show
Sarwar said “we are in talks with the SNP at this moment over the cease fire motion”
The SNP replied immediately by text to Geissler saying “This is completely untrue, no one from the Labour party has spoken to us, they have made no contact whatsoever about any of this”
An eel can exude its own bodyweight in slime in minutes, even Geissler couldn’t pin him down and he’s one of them
House of Lords says they will prevent the SNP spending the money we the members give them on what we want
More than 50% of Scotland at any one time supports independence, they can’t change our minds so they’ll legislate to make what we spend our money on illegal
It’s coming
This is definitely the direct of travel for the province and its new Irish FM.
https://archive.is/lfQzQ
Overwhelming majority of NI voters back rejoining EU
Freudian slip.
https://archive.is/0Sf2W
No discussion over Falklands, says Lord Cameron ahead of visit
The sovereignty of the Falkland Islands will not be up for discussion as long as they want to remain a British territory, Lord Cameron has said.
But if they no longer want to be British, they won’t have the right to self-determination, is what he means.
‘You are allowed to freely choose independence as long as you wish to be British’. That’s the English imperial way.
If Labour win 20 seats in Scotland at the general election that means Scotland no longer supports independence, Labour is a party of UK union, says Ian Murray, who remember will be Secretary of State for Scotland if Labour win in England
So Alister Jack 2.0 it is
The problem with that is there’s a Scottish election in 2026. So they can talk this sort of shite all they like. Labour winning titanic deckchairs on low turnout this year because Scots don’t want them, doesn’t change a thing. If England tries to use this to say the mandate another government has was overturned, all it does is ensure Scots will vote Yes to independence in 2026. The electorate knows exactly what it’s doing and how it sees the best way to achieve this.
The only way to stop indy is to stop Scots voting at all. But that at most would be very temporary. You could stretch it out a couple of years if you wanted to give Scots the Irish treatment, but you can’t stop it, not if it’s the settled will.
The truth is slipping out at times.
https://archive.is/GopGE
The conclusion Starmer apparently draws from all this, hardened by Labour’s traditional fear of the rightwing press, is that now is not the time for any high-flown rhetoric or ambitious plans. “Voters hate all of us,” one Wellingborough Labour activist recently told the Guardian…
I will keep saying it. Scotland is heading towards being ruled by an English Labour government that didn’t vote for, which Scots hate deeply, and which has no mandate to rule any UK nation never mind Scotland. No amount of spin will get around this if Labour pick up some seats as tumbleweeds roll past the ‘British union election’ polling stations.
This is what the polls say is the best case outcome for the union.
This looks like being the last UKGE that Scots take part in. They may do so by not bothering anymore. But that will only ensure they don’t take part in another.
The Scottish affairs committee will begin today stacked full of Labour and Tory ex FMs and Lords to decide the fate of devolution in Scotland and how it has worked and not worked in the way they want it
The conclusion will of course be that there is too much devolution
The BMA, sounds fancy and professional doesn’t it, but it’s really just the the doctors union, is deciding that although the NHS should be free at the point of need they will decide that there’s too much free at the point of need
In the words of their chairman “Too much free lunch” so free at the point of need will be less treatment free at the point of need if they get their way
It’s as clever a way as they could muster of saying they want privatisation by creeping stealth
How about this latest wheeze from the creeps in England
More Dentists will be brought to the UK but without having to qualify the training period required to meet UK standards
Anas Sarwar will be delighted to fill the ranks of his ever burgeoning new private dentistry practices that have been springing up in every town and village in the last two years
The House of Lords has no power. They can delay a Bill twice. Then it becomes Law. An expensive talking shop.
Starmer has made another VOW. To be reneged upon after election day.
Brexit. The healthcare workers left.
People need to vote for Independence. To stop the rot of corrupt Westminster.
If the Lords decide and agree on a bill they wish to send to the Commons and that bill is accepted by the Speaker of the House and passes in the Commons that bill receives automatic consent by the Lords when it returns, thus every single unelected peer has more authority and power than every elected MSP and FM of Scotland
Westminster already decide how 50%. £50Billion of Scottish revenues are spent.
Scotland raises £87Billion. UK raises £731Billion. Westminster spends £1090Billion. Scotland Block Grant £40Billion. Scotland pays £5Billion for Defence.Too much. 180,000 military personnel. 10,000 based in Scotland. Nuclear dumped. No Navy to patrol the shore.
Scotland has to pay £4Billion on loan repayments not borrowed or spent in Scotland. Trident, redundant weaponry, illegal wars. HS2, Hinkley Point all a total waste of monies. To improve rail times in Britain services should be improved in the North and Scotland. To cut journey times.
It is claimed Scotland spends £103Billion. Given all the debt by Westminster.
George Kerevan on the prospect of Grangemouth no more.
Grangemouth closure is one more repeat of huge mistakes of past
https://archive.is/pBjlM
Democracy UK-style :
Unelected Labour/Tory/LibDumb Peers will pressure UK Government to restrict
( cut ? ) funding to the Scottish Parliament if it continues to act as if it was freely elected with a clear majority to act in the best interests of the people of Scotland .
The Peers ( Scottish in name only – if even that in the case of FFS Foulkes !) -don’t like the way Scotland is being presented to the world as if it had ”the most powerful Devolved parliament in the World ”. Allowing these jumped-up Scots to act for themselves in the Big Bad World without the say-so of The Union can only have one outcome – and The Union doesn’t want to risk that !
Then there is the ”Champion of Scotland ” ( as the out-of-touch lead advocate in the Scottish Covid Inquiry labelled Alister Union Jack ! ) pretending to act in the best interests of Scotland , while representing a political party that hasn’t won an election in Scotland in over 70 years . And 70 years is also the time he would like to pass before another democratic Referendum on Independence .
This ”democrat ” is ably assisted in his desire to ”help” Scotland by the Shadow SSS , the Edinburgh Tory who sits for Labour , Ian Murray . The Man -in-the-Union-Suit has all the makings of a true Westminster democrat . He represents another political party which has less than 2% of Scottish MPs but never fails to demonstrate his democratic tendencies by insisting that he and his party will not ALLOW another Scottish Independence Referendum as it is not what the people want ! As he and his party leader ( that’s Starmer , not the Office boy , Sarwar ! ) never tire of telling us .
This democracy idea is a strange beast when applied to Scotland . We vote for the SNP overwhelmingly in UK and Scottish elections , during which the opposition continually talk about independence and urge the voters to reject those parties supporting it . When an Independence party/parties are elected the opposition deny that Independence was ever an issue !
When we were told in the 2014 referendum that Scotland would be an integral part of The Union and ”should lead us ( UK ) ” , we were subsequently totally ignored and dragged out of the EU despite a clear majority of Scots wishing to remain .
UK democracy stinks !
The parallels between Israel and Gaza and England and Scotland are similar (except for the killing) when you examine the fact that because Scotland votes in a way England doesn’t like, Scotland is punished by England using budget cuts to our own money
This is part of Starmer’s political pitch to Scotland, “The UK will be nicer to you if you vote for us”
Once again the National newspaper debunks the UK governments *facts* proving them to be liars
But here’s the problem with the National newspaper they refuse to print front page banner headlines that the UK are liars, why not? every unionist newspaper prints lies about Scotland and just simply gets away with it, so why can’t or won’t the National print the truth on the hard copies front page?
NMRN with another excellent article on Talking Up Scotland.
Journalists blocked from attending the event” (shurely not the same Journalists that currently are doing their very best for Labour to win in Scotland in the next GE
Oops, forgot it would embed. A good read anyway.
So, people are lying to you by saying ‘the link between SNP support and Yes has been broken’. That or they can’t make a simple cross plot.
Nope, the two still correlate beautifully. It would be nonsensical to suggest that support for parties which advocate independence would not correlate directly with support for independence. Only idiots would try to sell such nonsense.
Here you go:
Alive and well. Different methods cause a range (shaded), but no doubt about the correlation in both cases. All that’s happened is our respondent base changed after Sturgeon’s resignation. Where it used to be easy to reach SNP2019 and less so Labour 2019, that swapped around as one party’s voters felt they were on the back foot while the other felt they were in ascendency. All very normal.
So our correlation has gone nowhere, it’s just now reflecting a more unionist respondent pool. However, as these have been moving to indy in record numbers, so the trend means we need far lower SNP support in polls to get the same level of Yes.
Take 45% SNP as per 2019 as illustrated. Back in the day, this would equate to 49% Yes. However, as unionist have been moving to indy, if we do see polls shift back to 45% SNP ahead coming elections, then Yes is predicted to be 53% on average.
I really like polling at the moment. I have no idea why unionists like it too.
Oh, and if I am right and we have a lot of quiet SNP, then it wouldn’t be 53% Yes if SNP was 45%. That assumes our more unionist respondent pool remains the case, with some shifting to SNP.
Nope, if we have quiet SNP and these come out of the woodwork aka 2011, 2015/16 and 2019, then the correlation shifts even further left, meaning 45% SNP could be upper 50’s Yes.
Latest on the (non-existent) ‘Labour revival in Scotland’.
Funny to see a Tory paper attacking Labour, a nice wee change
Starmer’s attacks on Scottish labour are quite something to watch.
First GRR, then Gaza, now oil jobs and his plans to milk Scotland for every penny. This is a f’n disaster for Scottish Labour, hence Sarwar now telling voters to vote for him ‘to stand up against the coming hated English Labour government and it’s plans to harm Scotland’.
But then Starmer’s an English nationalist, so this clash has been coming for some time.
“Ousting Humza Yousaf is the goal of my Labour government” says Labour’s Sir Kier Starmer
One wonders if he’s told the population of England Wales and Northern Ireland that his sole concentration will be on the removal of the democratically elected FM in Scotland rather than all the non promises he’s made to make the entire UK wealthier
Do we think if Humza were white or maybe Jewish instead of Muslim, Starmer would be so energised about him at the moment? is Gaza getting to Starmer?
If Starmer had said he wanted to *oust the SNP” that might be a fair statement, but he didn’t, he made it personally about Humza Yousaf, Hmm?
While I’m fully supportive of the Scottish government doing it’s duty in housing people arriving in our country seeking asylum, hasn’t England been continuously arguing that asylum seekers ‘should remain and pursue their case in the first safe country they land in’?
https://archive.is/jmroP
Scotland urged to use cruise ship to house asylum seekers
So if they land at Edinburgh airport, the Scottish government houses them. If they land at Heathrow, Westminster takes care of this. Cardiff then the Welsh government and so forth. Same if they turn up in a small boat on the Ayrshire coast or something.
Seems to me that as usual, England is being totally hypocritical. Wants to offload its asylum seekers to another country, while telling other countries they should not offload to it.
Westminster want to offload more than just the asylum seekers themselves. They want to offload all of the negative headlines they have created in the first place by offering sub standard accommodation on barges of old decrepit military barracks and generally treating people very badly.
That’s the real aim, make sure the Scottish government take the some of that blame for failing to treat asylum seekers responsibly. It doesn’t matter that the responsibility for housing and processing asylum seekers lies with Westminster they will ensure that their pet media generate negative headlines anyway that are firmly aimed at the Scottish government.
There’s an excellent review of a new book in the London Review of Books. It’s the Cambridge Constitutional History of the United Kingdom by Peter Cane and Harshan Kumarasingham. Unfortunately, it costs £160 and is over a 1,000 pages long. Fortunately, we still have public libraries so anyone interested could order it from their library and make sure copies are made available. Sample:
https://archive.is/djkPq
That’s not how it works at all Skier . Practically all asylum seekers get into the UK via the South of England on a boat or lorry. They are then given accommodation by the Home Office in a hotel or flat and that accommodation is dispersed across the Uk including Scotland. Home Office do have agreements with some councils including Glasgow City Council regarding this A lot of the ones that are sent to Scotland end up in Glasgow I worked as a Homeless Officer for many years dealing with asylum seekers who had been recently granted refugee status so I know the process pretty well. It is exceedingly difficult for any asylum seeker to get into UK via an aircraft. Airlines are fined if they allow anyone onto an aircraft without correct authorisation to enter UK so are very strict re documentation and if they are caught by Border Control the illegal immigrant as Home Office call them is often put back on a return flight to where they have flown from. There are very few who try to claim asylum at a British Airport as so few are allowed on a plane by an airline.There is a Home Office Reporting Centre for Asylum Seekers on the South Side of Glasgow Often asylum seekers accommodated in Scotland are sent to England these days to a Home Office Centre there for their main interview regarding their asylum claim. They generally do not receive any financial support to get from Glasgow or wherever to that interview so they are treated horrendously. If course there is a Home Office detention centre in Scotland too
I was being deliberately obtuse, but the point stands; if they arrive in England, they’ve arrived in a safe country so should be housed there according to England’s own arguments re Europe.
Not our fault the north sea is wider than the channel. Nor that Westminster governments have never improved our links with the continent.
It’s just the hypocrisy I was pointing out.
I’m proud this is the case.
…and that Scotland is a far more welcoming country, hence e.g. our EU citizens per capita is up since Brexit, unlike England.
https://archive.ph/RSDyo
Expert debunks Home Office claim about Scottish asylum seeker figures
SCOTLAND is hosting more displaced people than England per capita despite the Home Secretary’s claims that it must do more, an expert has said.
Dr Peter Walsh, a lecturer in migration at the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory, said that Scotland is home to 50% more displaced people than England per capita.
Yeah I gathered you were being obtuse Skier but there is enough misinformation about asylum seekers in this country and too many people believe everything they read about them. A heck of a lot of folks would have thought every word you wrote was factually correct. My 80 year cousin believes all male asylum seekers are the devil incarnate and the female and children ones are not much better.
Can’t resist one more news item – SNP official defects to Labour. Might explain a few anomolies.
Former SNP official ditches independence and defects to Labour
https://archive.is/f9vvj
That’s a good one, *official* that practically makes me a *grandee* of the party
Another benefit of current nonsense polling!
The rats are abandoning the good ships SNP / independence as these sail soundly on towards their final destination.
What’s nice is how few rats we seem to have had in the ranks.
Or maybe rats climbing aboard the sinking ship Britannia?
Something like this anyway.
Who he ? Never heard of him. Sounds like another trougher to me.
He was rejected twice as a candidate for MSP and MP, just another careerist trying to advance himself, any party will do
He’s Mr Mandy Rhodes, arch critic of Nicola Sturgeon.
Starmer says he’s going to make Anas Sarwar the FM of Scotland
Starmer has misunderstood the rules in Holyrood, he only gets to pick the leader of the Labour branch office in Scotland
Polls consistency show Scots want Yousaf as FM over Sarwar and Ross. Yousaf’s ratings continue to creep up, while Sarwar’s and Ross’s head downwards.
That’s with sampling favouring unionists right now.
Scots see Starmer increasingly as right-wing. This is why nobody in Scotland has, net, moved to Labour, his ratings are falling fast in here, and Labour 19/21 voters are moving to indepdence at the prospect of him in No. 10.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/keir-starmer-alignment?crossBreak=scotland
Changes over the series:
Left = 39(-16)%
Centre = 13(+2)%
Right = 19(+15)%
Will graph if I have a moment.
So when 10’s of 1000’s of young Irishmen volunteered to be sent the front in WW1 to defeat the Kaiser, England’s thanks was to turn the guns on them and families in 1918 when they voted for the same freedom they’d just fought to give others.
Fast forward and nothing has changed.
Make them promises of their own self governance, democracy etc, then use them as cannon fodder for your own interests before abandoning them to the enemy when no longer useful. Hell, even shoot them yourself if they are getting uppity / complaining and you want what’s theirs.
Imperial England’s way was ever thus.
https://archive.is/s38ta
Special forces blocked UK resettlement applications from elite Afghan troops
UK Special Forces blocked Afghan troops they had fought alongside from relocating to the UK after the Taliban seized power, BBC Panorama can reveal.
Leaked documents show special forces rejected applications despite some containing compelling evidence of service alongside the British military.
Afghan commandos accompanied British special forces on some of the most dangerous missions of the conflict.
The best thing we can do for the world, including folks in England, is end the violent, drunken, racist, waster that is what’s left of the ‘British’ [sic English] empire.
Latest NoI border poll. 44% Yes ‘tomorrow’. This is accelerating.
https://archive.is/LzFcO
The actual article allows you to look at vs age, and a majority of the under 44’s back bringing down the Belfast wall. Support only gets bigger with decreasing age.
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/more-people-in-ni-would-vote-to-stay-part-of-uk-if-border-poll-was-called/a1750577562.html
The UK has no future. The young are not British thanks to…
England.
OT
I wonder how many people know that many hostages were kept down in London to force the co-operation of Scottish nobles, and even Kings and Queens? It was often the sons, but also at times the daughters as in Margaret and Isabella, the oldest daughters of William I (the Lion), King of Scots, and his wife, Ermengarde de Beaumont?
Can’t verify these articles, but in general it’s well-known.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Douglas,_4th_Earl_of_Morton
and
I don’t remember there ever being an apology but instead of that you get the hypocrisy that the UK Gov condemn others (and rightly) for taking hostages.
There’s plenty of incidents recorded in history of hostages being taken by England and used as leverage against Scotland.
A young boy was taken by an act of piracy on his way to France, he was the future King of Scots, James the 1st.
Golfnut.
As recently as the 1970’s, Britain/England was taking huge number of Irish people hostage and holding them without evidence nor trial.
https://archive.is/X8rOE
Internment explained: When was it introduced and why?
Internment without trial, called Operation Demetrius, was introduced in Northern Ireland by the Stormont unionist government early on the morning of August 9th 1971.
It involved mass British army arrests of more than 340 people from Catholic and nationalist backgrounds.
The then unionist prime minister Brian Faulkner said it was designed to smash the IRA. Approval for internment was given to Faulkner by the British Home Secretary Reginald Maudling who was said to be unenthusiastic about the move but feared a loyalist backlash if the did not act.
The intelligence used in making the arrests was seriously faulty and scores of people ended up detained who had no connections with the IRA.
While the British security forces and paramilitaries killed far more civilians than the IRA – ergo presented a much larger threat to society than their armed Irish opponents – the former we not interred, nor were walls built around British communities to pen these in like Gaza. Nope, this was reserved for Irish people.
Yup a partice that can be traced back from ancient history across the world and that carried on until the early 18th centuary, but was most common across medieval Europe. It was the ultimate security that the terms of a treaty would be kept – becasue if they weren’t then the hostages were forfit.
John Bailliol – Edward 1. Toom Tobard
Mary Queen of Scot. Dauphin France.
Royals intermarried. To combine land, wealth and power.
Robert Bruce had lands in England and Scotland. Aberdeen Common Good fund.
Plaid Cymru is telling the MOD to stay out of Wales schools, they don’t want their kids dragged into the *British* army
This is the way forward, and it is integrity, honesty and humanity will win us Independence. And inclusiveness. We’re all human. From the National:
“Kate Forbes said: “Really sorry to see two valued members of SNP resign recently – KarlRosie a well respected, hardworking local councillor and Doug Thomson, one of the first faces I saw when I moved to SNP branch in Edinburgh in 2011.
“Their skills, work ethic and experience are a loss to the SNP.”“
Yes, Kate has a gracious touch. I have a lot of time for her. I think she will return to a senior position in Government.
Shame about people leaving but to be honest when you consider the number that left Labour to join the SNP 10 years ago one might expect a little traffic the other way from time to time. I despise the Trump rhetoric that paints every person that leaves his camp as the worst person ever (X infinity)
People with principles do change parties. You can tell the ones that don’t have principles; they jump ship based on the latest polling. The weather vanes of the political world. The ones with principles join what look like lost causes… swap to a party on the back foot etc. Anyone joining the SNP right now must be for real. Those jumping to Labour in the main will be looking at polling and thinking of their pockets.
But just like those politicians that make up policy on the back of the latest polling, jumping ship to what looks like a party on the ascendency in polls generally comes back to bite them, as polling is not remotely scientific, and most of the time is absolute rubbish. To get some reliable data, you need to do a proper academic, fully random sample Scottish Social Attitudes Survey type study. It takes a long time and costs a lot of money though. 1000 person regular polls are cheap and nasty. Most of the time they are total guff as well, and only tend to show accuracy very close to the vote being asked about.
The media have created a total myth that Labour are on the up, are experiencing big swings to them… it’s 1997 all over again etc. This could not be further from the truth. They’ve not gained a single voter on 2019, and turnout projections are totally dire. UK is sleepwalking into a democratic, social, economic and constitutional crisis that will likely end it.
If you jump to Labour right now, you literally are a rat climbing aboard a sinking ship.
Which is why I think current polling is actually very helpful. It’s pressuring the SNP while completely fooling their opponents. Helping to weed out weather vanes in the former too; those that managed to sneak their way into the party in the hope of personal advancement.
Yes, there’s bound to be two-way traffic. People change their views – look at how many have switched from NO to YES.
It’s possible too he isn’t impressed by the way his wife was and is treated by the extremists in the SNP and Greens.
I think Mandy Rhodes is a very good interviewer and journalist, this is how she finds it in Holyrood these days.
https://archive.is/Byyhs
I cannot stand Mandy Rhodes. She is an abject Sturgeon hater. Her journalism is skewed with her right wing gender views and as a woman and a feminist I object to being told what to think by people like her. She lives in the Hollyrood bubble not in the real world and that interview with her you linked to was done by Kevin McKenna another pretendy Indy supporter when it suited him
Rhodes and Sturgeon were great friends before GRR tore them apart. It was that close friendship that gave this story to the world, and gave a lot of understanding about Sturgeon:
https://www.holyrood.com/inside-politics/view,profile-nicola-sturgeon-spoke-to-mandy-rhodes-about-her-miscarriage_12315.htm
My wife had 2 miscarriages, I along with many others, had some idea what she had gone through. Even though we have kids, you never forget the ones you lost.
Sorry I am not near as charitable as Kate re folk like Doug and I don’t like the votes of the electorate being misused by any elected politician. What actually did Doug accomplish for the Snp or Indy. Some no mark in the Snp jumped ship to Labour after trying and failing to get nomination to stand for the Snp at least twice and magically now he doesn’t support Indy. His credibility with me is zilch.
The credibility of anyone of who jumps ship from one party to another is zilch with me also. The truth of the matter is that to leave one party for another you have to say you believe that virtually everything you believed in was a lie and now you believe in some stuff that is the total opposite of the stuff you were telling everyone was your sincere beliefs before.
Sorry but that is just not credible. I can understand someone disagreeing with their party policies in certain areas and deciding that staying with that party was unacceptable to them. That’s fine, they can resign and would be standing up for their principles.
The rush to join another party though that has many totally opposite policies to your previous party reeks of hypocrisy and I have no time for anyone doing that.
Kate Forbes and Ivan McKee should be ministers or in the Cabinet. Kate Forbes refused a post. Thought it was a demotion. Pity.
People come and go but Independence is forever. Equality promised to Scotland 1707 did not happen.
Military not in Scotland. Scotland pays the bill.
Military personnel 180,000. 10,000 based in Scotland.
Yeah but we’ve got *the bomb*
Latest UK R&W poll. 46% turnout projected.
This is looking like a total disaster of an election for the UK as things stand.