Goodbye and good riddance Douglas Ross, you won’t be missed. Scotland’s leading political hypocrite and back stabber has announced that he is standing down as the leader of the Scottish Conservatives. He also announced, in a shameless instance of hedging his bets, that he will also stand down as an MSP, but only if he succeeds in winning the Aberdeenshire North and Moray East Westminster constituency that he half inched from a colleague lying ill in a hospital bed.
Ross had lost the confidence of his own party. Firstly the Scottish Tories had been angered by Ross U-turning on a previous commitment to step down as an MP at this general election in order to focus on Holyrood. They were then infuriated by the downright nasty and underhand way in which Ross had carpet bagged himself a potentially winnable seat at the expense of an ill colleague, sitting Tory MP David Duguid. Duguid strongly denied claims made by Ross that he was too unwell to campaign, reiterated his desire to remain the Conservative candidate, and damningly for Ross released a statement claiming that no one from the Scottish Conservative management board had visited him in hospital to inform him that they were considering deselecting him, and they had not sought medical advice about his supposed unfitness to stand.
There was such anger amongst the Scottish Tories that someone decided to give Ross a taste of his own back stabbing medicine and leaked highly damaging information about Ross’s Westminster expenses claims to the Sunday Mail. The Tory leaker alleged that on several occasions Ross abused his Westminster expenses to pay for travel expenses to and from his side gig as an assistant referee. Ross is alleged to have wrongly claimed expenses 28 times. That’s not an error, that’s a habit, and the Tories covered it up even as they were screaming for Michael Matheson’s head on a plate over a single instance of wrongly claimed expenses. Ross denies any wrong doing.
On Monday Ross bowed to the pressure from within his own party and announced that he will be standing down as leader of the Scottish Tories from the date of the general election. If he wins the seat he backstabbed David Duguid for, he’ll stand down as an MSP as well. It says a lot about the anger within the contingent of Scottish Conservative MSPs that they were prepared to scuttle their party’s Westminster General Election campaign just to get rid of Douglas Ross.
A party does not force its leader to resign in the middle of an election campaign unless there is something very seriously wrong indeed.
On the BBC UK lunchtime news there was no mention at all of Ross’s expenses scandal, even though the episode was assuredly instrumental in leading to his resignation. On BBC Scotland’s news where you are Ross’s expenses scandal was quickly glossed over in a single sentence. No representatives from the other parties were asked to comment on it. It’s reasonable to wonder what other dirty little secrets did Ross fear might be leaked by an angry Scottish Tory insider unless he fell on his sword and resigned as leader and gave an assurance that he would not simultaneously be an MP and an MSP. We will never know, certainly BBC Scotland has no interest in looking under that particular rock.
The contrast with how BBC Scotland handled the story of Michael Matheson’s expenses claim is stark and telling. Ross is alleged to have been a serial abuser of expenses and this has led to his own colleagues taking the drastic and desperate step of forcing him out in the middle of an election campaign. His own party is no longer prepared to cover up for him, yet BBC Scotland is curiously uninterested in digging deeper into the story.
This is markedly different from the Michael Matheson story, which BBC Scotland kept going for weeks by offering platforms to opposition representatives to attack Michael Matheson at every turn. The Corporation is signally not doing so with the scandal of Douglas Ross’s expenses even though the Scottish Tory leader’s offence is arguably far worse. Michael Matheson’s offence related to a one off incident. Douglas Ross is alleged to have made a habit of abusing his expenses on repeated and multiple occasions. Ross’s alleged offence is in addition compounded by hypocrisy. All the while that Douglas Ross was on BBC Scotland fulminating about Michael Matheson’s one off expenses claim, he was himself – allegedly – making repeated and habitual abuses of his Westminster expenses. Ross demands that Michael Matheson be held to a far higher standard than Ross wants to be held to himself, and BBC Scotland is complicit in allowing him to do so.
To be very clear, I am absolutely not saying that the BBC and the Scottish media should not have investigated and reported on the allegations made against Michael Matheson, of course they should have. But if the BBC really is the unbiased public service broadcaster that it claims to be, then it should be investigating and reporting on the allegations made against Douglas Ross with the same energy and vigour.
Ross remains the Tory candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. The question of Ross’s character is now central to the local campaign. This is a man who is alleged to have repeatedly and habitually abused his expenses in pursuit of his extra parliamentary career. He has stabbed a colleague in the back not once but twice, first Jackson Carlaw when Ross ousted him as Scottish Tory leader, then David Duguid in order to land himself a winnable Westminster seat. If someone is prepared to betray those who are supposed to be his friends for his own personal advancement, he would not hesitate to betray his constituents if he sees it as being in his own interests.
Ross’s bad character has been on display every week in Holyrood during First Minister’s Questions. He has encouraged Scottish Tory MSPs to behave in the same boorish and barracking manner which characterises the Conservative benches in Westminster. Here’s hoping that he will not be elected as an MP and then can languish in obscurity on the Tory back benches in Holyrood alongside that other Scottish Tory failure, Jackson Carlaw. He will not be missed. He comes across as a thoroughly unpleasant individual.
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Wee Ginger Dug 
DRoss falls on his sword … and misses !
A man of integrity – NOT ! We should have known from his background in Dairying that he would ”milk” the system for every penny he could get away with .
He will cling on to any and every opportunity to suck the marrow from the Public Purse – he has no shame , no honour , no idea of what Public Service is ACTUALLY about .
Total disaster for the unionists this. Just a few weeks before the election too. SNP could take a good few Con held seats here.
I’d propose an investigation into Sarwar’s expenses, but given he’s so far behind Swinney in leadership ratings there’s little point.
The infamous Douglas Ross
Made even Tories so cross
They sneaked to the Sunday Mail
Ross fouled the expenses Grail
That infamous doss Douglas Ross
“The contrast with how BBC Scotland handled the story of Michael Matheson’s expenses claim is stark and telling” – Absolutely…
At one stage I’d clocked 8 hours from the first comment on the exact same story in the National – The things James Cook will do for a precious gong to go with his precious suits whilst claiming impartiality have become an embarrassment….
That final sentence, ‘He comes across as a thoroughly unpleasant individual.’, clinches it.
It was supposed to be the SNP going into the election leaderless and in the midst of bitter infighting over the top job.
But life comes at you fast sometimes, eh Dougie?
what goes around comes around, like karma.
BREAKING: Scottish unemployment figures set to soar as Douglas Ross loses some of his jobs.
Lol, but word is that UK employment figures are out tomorrow and they don’t look good. Being part of a brexit UK is putting Scots out of work. Labour will be the government of unemployment. The brexit chicken is slowing coming home to roost.
Brexit chicken – As is Cameron’s baby – universal credit over tax credits. If you’re self employed but don’t earn £1500 + a month, but earn over £393 a month, then chances are, you’re not eligible for anything.
You’re treated as ‘unemployed’ and suppose to be searching and applying for jobs 39 hours a week (bearing in mind you still have to attend your regular self employed work of 18 years x 20 hours a week) alongside constant text messages to ‘sign in to your up account’, ‘complete your to do and journal’, ‘make an appointment at the centre’, only the job centre in Perthshire is in Perth which equates to a round trip of 48 miles for me, taking up either the whole afternoon or morning, plus fuel costs.
What a farce.
Bloody tories. Bloody brexit.
Curiously, there appears to be ‘loads of jobs’ advertised, but are they real? Or am I just useless with applying, with the silent ‘ism’ of age, after a lifetime of skills and experience.
The problem is that brexit has created a massive labour shortage, with a total imbalance in supply vs demand in terms of skill sets. So we have rising unemployment in the middle of an acute labour shortage.
As you allude to, skills and experience in one area cannot suddenly equip you to work in an other.
We have e.g. a dire shortage of chefs in Scotland caused by Brexit. This is closing restaurants left right and centre. They all went home with covid and the UK is not allowing them back now.
Training to be a chef that can run a restaurant kitchen takes many, many years. But people are not even attempting the training because they see the restaurant industry closing down. It does not look like a viable career path right now.
We are struggling to get tradesmen here as they can pick and chose. They don’t respond. Or they turn up, decide your job is less easy money than others they have in hand, so don’t quote you or price super high. There is zero competition because all the EU tradesmen are back in the EU where the economy is stronger and there are not walls keeping them out.
There is also oversupply in some areas due to rising unemployment. The brexit induced jobs losses we are witnessing will be creating excess supply of certain skill sets and that may be the problem you face, which I am sorry to hear about.
Defo a white, ageing Scotswoman theme.
Seems that the ‘cultural’ jobs are for the southerners only, I’m afraid to say.
It’s fine for English voters to say Britain isn’t great, but when Scots say it, we are ‘anti-English’.
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/just-one-five-would-describe-britain-today-doing-great
This is how voters feel at the ‘dead cert’ prospect of a Labour government. This is the ‘optimism’ he’s creating like Blair did. The party of low turnouts, of people giving up hope of any change, of despair and despondency. Starmer thrives when the UK is on the rocks and voters feel they can do nothing to stop it, so stay at home.
The Scottish subsample is:
12% A great deal (3%) / a fair amount (9%)
85% Not very much (34%) / not at all (50%)
You can see another reason why Yes is so high in younger age groups. Britain has taken away their future. Keir Starmer plans to do everything he can to keep things that way, making sure younger Scots don’t get back the European birth citizenship that England took from them.
This is what Starmer’s brexit will be delivering in Scotland.
https://archive.is/TcnC8
UK unemployment rising at fastest pace of OECD countries, analysis shows
Unemployment is rising in the UK at the fastest pace among 38 of the world’s richest countries, according to an analysis by the Trades Union Congress (TUC).
In a release a day before official labour market figures are expected to show another increase in joblessness in Britain, the union body looked at data from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) covering the first three months of this year.
It found that of its 38 member states, only Costa Rica suffered a similar rise in the number of people losing their jobs between the start of January and the end of March.
Here is the UK-wide turnout projection. It’s not complicated maths.
Take the average ‘certain to vote’ (CTV) in the final polls before the 2017 and 2019 elections. Compare to actual turnout. In both cases it’s turnout is 0.91 times certain to vote. Polls tend to attract voters more than non voters, so always see higher certain to vote number than reality.
Certain to vote levels in polls today are giving a turnout projection of ~51.4% average using the above correlation. Linear projection gives 52.4% on the day. More optimistic 2nd order polynomial curve gives 56.6%.
Either would equate to ‘Starmer only won because voters stayed at home‘… ‘Starmer only won because of worst turnout in the entire history of universal suffrage‘ headlines. Naff all English folks could do – they’d be feeling like the French have recently – but Scotland / Wales / N. Ireland are different. They can escape the rot.
And this would not be like France where the turnout has just kept edging down, so politicians argue ‘But the turnout is normal for recent times!’. No, it would have collapsed utterly on a reasonably healthy 67.3% in 2019.
But the data says Starmer needs turnout to stay low as any rise will likely eat into that lead of his.
So far that teeny rise appears to be going to the SNP (tentatively, touch wood) and Reform either side of the border respectively.
It’s barely possible, by the way, that the SNP’s campaign is quite clever. Either that or it’s moronic!
Time will tell …
OK. Casting my eye around I spied UKDJ:
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/would-uk-naval-shipbuilding-continue-in-scotland-if-it-left-the-uk/
First I wondered if this was a very old article due to quoting people from Indy Ref 1 – 10 or more years ago. No, it’s June 5, 2024. Then I thought WHY now? Well – because as far as they’re concerned, Indy is in the air and so it’s important to show how little Scotland can do on our very own lonesome. And the sheer desperation of asserting this:
“… and any ships that would be constructed would likely be a few Offshore Patrol Vessels.”
and quoting this:
“An independent Scotland will presumably have a minute Navy—it will be like Ireland’s, for example, with offshore patrol vessels.“
and this:
“It couldn’t afford them, anyhow [frigates]—the unit cost for a Type 31 frigate is £250 million at least.“
Wowsy, a whole £250 million. Well, it’s’ back to Alex Salmond in his rowboat riding shotgun I guess, sorry, John Swinney! So therefore this quote from the same dude:
“In short, no, I do not see a future for a Scottish warship building industry in an independent Scotland“
Well that’s that then, and according to George:
“would the industries that might potentially take their place be able to sustain as many high-end engineering jobs?”
Oh dear, we’re done for, better give up the quaint idea and stay under the LabaTories misruling governor-general.
But wait … is there a part 2 to this posting … ?
What, eh? Part 2 did somebody say? Oh aye.
I always use Denmark for my comparisons because Denmark is, and I quote the US department of state:
“Denmark is a strong NATO Ally and a reliable contributor to multinational stability operations, as well as to international assistance.”
Denmark has 5 frigates and 4 ocean patrol frigates (big OPVs).
UK defence budget £54.2 billion in 2023/24.
Scotland proportion at 1/12th of UK = £4.5 billion.
Denmark spent 1.65% of its GDP on defence in 2023 (around £5.3 billion), compared to around 1.3% in the preceding years. Which makes comparison easier.
Denmark GDP 400 billion USD, Scotland GDP 280 billion USD,
Scotland for same 1.65% of GDP therefore = 70% of Denmark = £3.7 billion.
Pro rata, Scotland could have 3.5 full fat frigates (somewhere between a Type 31 and a Type 26), and 3 big OPVs. Or perhaps 5 or 6 Type 31s, and 5 UK size OPVs.
FOR THE SAME PERCENTAGE OF OUR GPD AS DENMARK – less than the UK.
Verdict on that article: desperate, fact-free, amateur.
Which is a shame, he normally writes very good articles but even though Scottish and a GCal graduate – is a cringer.
Ah well, back to the film The Elite which thinks a Harpoon is a surface to air missile. Ho hum.
Your ” First I wondered if this was a very old article due to quoting people from Indy Ref 1 ” was entirely justifiable, given that it appears written from the same distorted perspective.
Yet curiously when I attempted to archive it, up popped a query to overwrite that from a year ago – I didn’t, and am now looking at an archived article by the same George Allison dated December 5th 2022, https://archive.ph/QXJbI from which I quote
” Nicola Sturgeon earlier insisted that it would be a betrayal to go back the promise to build the frigate fleet in Scotland. Sturgeon said:
“Promises were made about orders to these yards and promises were made about jobs at these yards, and I think it is absolutely vital now these contracts are delivered. These yards have been through some really difficult times with a reduction in the workforce, and they thought that that was all part of the process of getting themselves into shape for the Type 26 and securing a level of employment here. This is about jobs and securing jobs in an industry. It would be a complete betrayal of these yards if there was any U-turn or going back on on promises made.” “
Pardon my suspicion this is an attempt to bury the original article with an overwrite from “No, it’s June 5, 2024.”…..
Well spotted. I checked wayback
https://web.archive.org/web/20191201000000*/https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/would-uk-naval-shipbuilding-continue-in-scotland-if-it-left-the-uk/
and the first archive there was 21st December 2019, and the article then dated December 16, 2019 – with older comments. It would have been a courtesy for him to his regulars, to point out it’s a dated repost of the same article. Oh well.
I kindly archived the “new” version on wayback for him.
Nice one
I see there’s an indy supporter holding his own below the line. Good – keep a cool head Nick, they’ll be out to rattle you – or ban. I got effectively banned for pointing out that in an article, the claim that the promise was being kept for 13 warships on the Clyde was false.
The promise was for 13 Type 26 hulls, with 8 anti-sub frigates, and 5 general purpose frigates – all on the same hull.
A 2,000 tonne OPV is NOT the same as a 6,900 tonne type 26, nor even a type 31 at 5,700 tonnes. My posts afterwards never appeared, and I think that was deleted – same as one where I did the Danish navy and budget comparison.
Very sad.
The Type 31 by the way, is based on the Royal Danish Navy (RDN) Iver Huitfeldt Class – which wasn’t built in the UK!
So, latest English panel poll of the Scotch has Labour just 1% ahead of the SNP, ergo the former have lost 9% of the lead they supposedly had in ‘I heart Labour’ outlier Redfield and Wilton. Now we know one or both polls are wrong. It’s that or Labour have lost a massive lead. The MoE max difference is 6%.
Fact is that both polls appear to be wrong. 9% are going to vote ‘other’, including 5% reform. This would make history in Scotland. We’d be going all pro-Brexit while, at the same time, going off Brexit, with support for leave at all time lows like it is UK-wide. This says polling is still mid term nonsense with electorate not yet fully engaged. All normal for Scotland, where 2019 only saw some partial engagement in the last 2 weeks.
Nope, 9% other says that turnout levels remain very low, which is consistent with Scottish certain to vote levels in UK polls. This means our silent SNP is still silent.
Anyhoo, the poll shows 2/3 of Scots opposed to a hated labour government on a historic low turnout. Labour fail to win back Scotland spectacularly and we get a ‘the most unpopular incoming UK government in English history’ which is 10% more unpopular in Scotland.
As for the SNP. they just polled their best since 11 March when the Lab/SNP crossover was occurring, with the smallest Labour lead since 12th April. 4 % Green on top ready for tactical.
https://www.whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-be-likely-to-vote-in-a-uk-general-election-asked-since-2019-general-election/
This would tie in with UK wide polls, which all show the SNP share steadily rising. Also all Scottish polls bar clear outlier R&W; the only poll that finds Scots like Starmer a smidgen NET when everyone else’s numbers show they can’t stand the posh, rich, kid Starving English knight of the realm.
The interesting thing is that this has occurred with only the teeniest rise in turnout projection. 0.5% at best. This might suggest movement to SNP from unionist parties. Labour are down and SNP up without certain to vote up. It’s in all Scotch polls bar the outlier. This can only be good news, for if our silent SNP do turnout in numbers like they did in 2019, then they’ll be SNP on top of this apparent Lab to SNP movement.
The fact that Labour have slipped UK wide since the GE announcement, going up a bit then backwards, would add further support here.
Expect extreme changes if silent SNP do appear in any significant numbers. 3% stayed under the radar to the bitter end in 2019. If the same number are doing so again, the latest poll has the SNP already ahead.
I await the tables for details.
Oh and 14% Con is a good indicator that the Opinium poll is a bit closer to the truer picture. This is what Scottish IPSOS had back in January when times were better for Con, with them not leaderless etc.
Fieldwork was 5 days 5-10 June, so considerably above average, indicating they’re still struggling to reach silent SNP 2019. Again that’s a plus as we have level pegging even while they’re struggling for SNP 2019. That agrees with the main movement being Lab to SNP rather than increased turnout.
Also means the poll is rather old as fieldwork began on 5th June. Responses are always heavily front loaded, with the vast majority coming in within 24 hours of emails gong out. Then the chasing for the silent voters begins in earnest.
Bulk of responses on the 5th June means fieldwork is nearly a week old. That’s a long time right now.
Have you ever known the political class to be as feckless as this.
Tory candidate set to replace Douglas Ross as MSP lives in London
Wikipedia now has the SNP on 38.3% in Scotland (3.3% UK-wide using 2019 and per capita as references), in agreement with my own analyses, and within +/-3% of Opinium 5-6 days ago.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summaries
You can see the sudden appearance of 4 and 5%’s which have not been present in a long time. Low point reached just after the GE announcement, but rising from there as the 2%’s also decrease in frequency.
You can also see Labour’s UK-wide slippage. Dropped half a point or so. It’s not what you want going into a vote, as it becomes a question of what will the total drop be. For Blair 1997 it ended up being 10%, and he was really pretty popular, with very positive ratings, unlikely the deeply disliked Starmer.
The other emerging thing at would have Scots running for the UK exit door would be Reform making a big inroads, which is what polls suggest may be happening.
Reform actually replacing Con would shift the UK so far to the right Scots would be absolutely voting for indy in 2026.
Another possible planet aligning there.
Wiki’s calculated change is +5.8% SNP in Scotland, in agreement with my own numbers and full English polls of the Scotch colony.
This is based on their 3.3%* now vs 2.8%# UK-wide at the start of the campaign. You can switch between their graphs to show this.
—-
*LOESS regression of opinion polls for the 2024 UK general election with a 3 day polling average bar chart. The time period is from the calling of the election up to the election.
#Aggregation and distribution of polls from January 2024 to the calling of the election, with a comparison to the 2019 election result
Vote UKOK for unemployment!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2881jmwjlmo
Unemployment rate highest for more than two years
https://www.insider.co.uk/news/scottish-unemployment-rate-increases-47-33003157
Scottish unemployment rate increases to 4.7%
Higher unemployment historically correlates with higher SNP share in elections. Unsurprising given the economy and trade deals are a reserved matter.
The Tories haven’t cornered the market on tin ears though. Prof Robertson points out that Keir Starmer laughs at a little girl telling him her family can’t afford fuel. And no he won’t remove the 2 child benefit cap thus ensuring 1.5 million children remain in poverty.
https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2024/06/11/do-scotlands-labour-candidates-support-their-leaders-laughing-at-child-poverty-and-leav
He literally laughs at kids freezing at night due to fuel poverty.
And don’t miss stewartb – a long read with a long headline- on
When an independent, London-based, Anglo-centric, establishment-endorsed, centrist think tank concludes the UK state is failing, those in Scotland not yet convinced about ending the Union should take heed!
https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2024/06/11/an-expose-of-the-uks-failings-is-all-the-more-compelling-when-the-source-is-close-to-westminster/
👍 A most superbly informed and cogent article indeed…
Well worth saving for future reference. Quotes from the Institute for Government such as these are damning:
Aye Opinium still showing red flags of an unrepresentative sample. As it’s a non random sample that’s been targeted knowing what respondents voted last time, the unweighted base matches 2019 well. Labour are heavily oversampled though, requiring the most down-weighting, which has been the pattern since Q2 2023.
While the sample claim to have voted quite close to the 2019 result, they also claim to have voted 51(+6)% Yes in 2014 and 68(+6)% Remain in 2016, causing Yes/SNP down-weighting, with up-weighing of more pro-UK leavers.
This is a real problem right now in Scottish polling and 8-10 year old recall weighting needs dispensed with. Don’t be surprised if it causes SNP underestimation again. It part contributed to this in 2019.
People are lying and saying they voted Yes and/or Remain when they didn’t, presumably out of regret. It’s like the false recall of voters insisting the gave the SNP 35% in 2010 when they tactically voted Labour and lib, then bitterly regretted it, hence were so eager to vote SNP in 2011.
The expenses accusation levelled at Tory Douglas Ross are that he misused MP expenses 28 times purely to facilitate his refereeing occupation for which he also received expenses
If accurate, Douglas Ross cannot insist there was a mistake and that same mistake was made 28 times, this would be theft on a criminal scale and punishable by? well we’ll all have to wait and see, because as usual the news media will decide how long they can keep this under wraps before they receive instructions to give him up
If Ross is done for I reckon he’ll become ill by Wednesday night and unable to face FMQs on Thursday morning, or he’ll have to do it with a fresh ice pack on the back of his neck
That’s if it’s all true of course
Maybe some of us should join the Tory party so as members we can lodge complaints, well that’s how the usual characters did it to Nicola Sturgeon
BTW We know who they are now, the polis cannae haud thur watter
Forgot to mention Ross’s wife is a polis, so her job’s hanging by a thread also, if true that is
“The forces of separatism are in retreat” says man with no country, British Nationalist Rishi Sunak,
“The 2014 referendum was decisive” says the man from India who held a Green card for citizenship of the United States of America turned British nationalist Rishi Sunak
Be in no doubt Scotland, Sunak only got his British nationalism in before British nationalist and man with no country Sir Kier Starmer says the same words
The both might as well be saying let’s abolish Wales England and Scotland and make our invented country of British that doesn’t exist a real country, maybe they’ll call it the Father or Motherland because that wouldn’t be new would it?
If you’re thinking of not voting SNP for some reason that others have made up to put you off voting then you’re joining the ranks of British nationalism, because voting anything else but SNP to protect Scotland is voting for the invented country that doesn’t exist anywhere on a map but does exist in the minds of the same people that brought you World wars to mold and bend countries to their will and their will alone
You think you’re Scottish? Welsh? English? you’re only allowed to call yourself that, they’ve already issued you with documents they call legal that say British is your nationality, and they invented a flag and a smiling Royal family to prove it and make you feel better about not being who and where you come from
Vote SNP and tell them different, that is unless you welcome British national service, because it’s coming whichever British nationalist party is in power in London
Just remember this, if we’re in a union of four countries run by the *UK* government, where is and why is there no English parliament?
Get it? Got it? Good!!
Labour just got a 38% from Yougov UK-wide. Those kind of numbers have not been seen since pre-mini budget.
Could be an outlier, or could be movement starting to emerge. They’re down in Focaldata too while SNP are up.
Tories tanking too, but it’s how unpopular Labour are that’s central to everything / the end of the UK. Labour getting a low share of total electorate matters even more than the SNP winning seats in the big scheme of things.
That said, focaldata is another we swallow passing the windae like this morning’s Opinium for the SNP.
There’s a real spike developing for the English nationalists reform, with evidence of the SNP on the up here.
Don’t rule out wins for the nationalists on either side of the border. I think you can guess what that would mean for the UK.
[…] Source […]
Sharp drops developing for both cheeks of the erse in the wiki wobble trend.
Libs, Reform and SNP seem to be gaining.
Meanwhile English Sky news is telling me voters neither trust nor like either of the to two erse cheeks.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-69104430
But Labour are pivoting somewhat away from a hard anti-independence position – Anas Sarwar preferring to be slightly more agnostic of late, saying he doesn’t care how people feel on independence as long as they’re willing to go along with Labour for “this part of the journey”.
This is what you would expect as the smell of coffee drifts toward those waking up. If, from internal polling, doorstepping etc, Sarwar felt that unionism had the wind at it’s back, with SNP voters shifting to English Labour London rule, there’s no way this would be his weather vane position.
This guy does not know what to make of polling. He’s getting a total bollocking on the doorsteps, but London pollsters assure him he’s ahead.
When you hear audience members calling for Scotland to be fixed then we’ll talk about independence you know that STV and Sarwar have salted the place full of British nationalists
There’s going to be big trouble ahead within weeks if Labour wins in Scotland
People will find out very quickly how gullible they were to be hoodwinked by Slimy Sarwar
So Richy Sun-ache has promised a reduction in tax and a triple lock plus for pensioners. Let’s just think about that for a moment or two.
Yup as the cousins would say “You can kiss my rebel *!!* “
“You have to be employed, on sufficient pay to pay tax before you have any hope of benefiting from a tax reduction.”
I don’t think point A’s entirely correct, pogmothon. But I take your point that the major beneficiaries will be as you describe. However, more lower paid workers are now on “sufficient” (HA!) pay to take them over the personal allowance and so are many state pensioners who weren’t previously.
I’m semi-retired, taking occasional temp jobs with state pension and a (very) small private pension.
I don’t mind paying tax – and don’t see why I shouldn’t pay National Insurance for that matter – when I work. I never have minded.
Similarly I don’t mind paying tax on the part of the annuity that takes me over the tax free allowance. Although I do mind wealthier people getting around taxes on much larger unearned amounts.
My state pension, though? Due to when I retired I was eligible to receive the ‘old pension rate’, which is higher than the new rate. The difference was paid and called “protected”, which means they very generously allow me to keep it (/s). However, since the personal allowance wasn’t increased recently these payments now take the pension over the limit, so they get to claw back tax on it.
This affects many (older) pensioners and, if they don’t have any other form of income, they probably would benefit from the tax reduction as it forms a larger proportion of their income. (In the same way that the Scottish Child Payment doesn’t sound a lot – isn’t really – but makes a great difference to the families).
What really gets up my nose about it is (firstly) that they’re acting as if the rise is generous in the first place. Secondly, the number of people who area taken in by it.
The points you raise are of course entirely correct.
How ever we both know that these offers were never meant to benefit the groups which you highlighted, and instead are aimed squarely at higher income brackets of any age dynamic. And I do agree my addition above was clumsily worded on point ‘A’ but the fact remains it is for middle englandshire not the mass of the population whom they hope to slide some wool over the eyes of with the announcement.
Oh, I agree absolutely.
Sorry if my wording implies I didn’t. The perils of posting instead of speaking!
Looking back to 2019 in detail, certain to vote levels in panel polls started to edge up 3 weeks out, rising from a notably higher starting point of 64.7% to 67.0% by 9 days out. Then shot up to 71.4% by 1 day out, finally exceeding actual turnout.
The closest the English pollsters got to the real SNP result was 42% on 3rd Dec, 9 days before. They then predicted SNP falling back slightly. IPSOS Scotland concluded the opposite, and had them rising to 44%.
So it was a very static picture until 10 days or so before. Some English pollsters, as previously noted in other comments, never saw it coming. Panelbase put their money on 38% SNP on the 6th December; silent SNP to the end. 7% of them 5 years ago.
Certain to vote levels up in the latest UK Survation. Causes Labour to drop as per Yougov. Benefits SNP in Scotland.
Starmer should start worrying this does not accelerate. That and 10% vanishes on the day as happened to Blair.
Anas Sarwar’s pitch to Scotland:
“We can all agree that we need to get rid of the hated Tories”
And if you’re a member of the public in Scotland you probably agree with that, like Sarwar says, we can all agree on that, that’s when Sarwar begins to lie when he says Scotland’s vote is crucial in doing that, it’s not and never has been
What Sarwar is trying to sell Scotland is the notion that because his party has a different name, that makes him better than the other lot, well Herpes or Scabies, take yer pick, which do you want? because it makes no difference what Scotland votes in general elections because it’s England that decides by a factor vote of ten to one
So what’s Sarwar afraid of if he’s convinced he’s winning in England anyway?
Just 10% of English voters outvotes Scotland, and what’s Nigel Farage on now?
England will decide the future makeup of the UK government, Scotland must decide to help ourselves by voting SNP for Scotland
So who’s going to win? it doesn’t matter does it? because in five years time when nothing has changed the Tories will take over once again
Are you getting this yet Scotland?
Agreed with one slight tweak.
“Herpes or Scabies, take yer pick, which do you want?“
I’d go for Herpes or Cold Sore. Same genus, different locations!
Latest on Scots coming home to Labour and the union.
Voter confidence at record low, says report
Trust and confidence in the UK’s politics and election system has never been worse, according to analysis by the electoral expert, Sir John Curtice.
His report for the National Centre for Social Research finds record numbers of voters saying they “almost never” trust governments to put country before party or politicians to tell the truth when in a tight corner.
“The public is as doubtful as it has ever been about the trustworthiness and efficacy of the country’s system of government and the people who comprise it,” Sir John says.
The report suggests disillusionment over Brexit among leave voters is one of the main reasons for the collapse in trust.
Political scandal and the cost-of-living crisis are also to blame, according to the report.
“Those struggling financially are particularly disenchanted with the state of government and politics in Britain,” Sir John explains.
Sarwar is getting earfuls on the doorsteps with more people than ever saying to him they now back independence.
Which is why he’s saying this:
Oops. Link to the Curtice article.
https://archive.is/jg2VB
“Reset Devolution” is British Labour code for stripping Holyrood of any meaningful powers and handing them over to local councils instead where Labour (with the backing of their Tory allies) can outflank the SNP. That’s what Sarwar is saying a UK Labour Gov will deliver.
He’ll not be resetting anything at Holyrood based on at best at 3rd of the vote on super low turnout for England’s parliament. Polls consistently show Scots are about to overwhelmingly reject a Labour-led UK government. Starmer will lead a hated Labour government Scots didn’t vote for unless a miracle happens.
Even if Labour got 1/3 of the vote in Holyrood 2026, they’d still not be resetting anything, not with 2/3 opposed to their plans.
Didn’t spot this:
Half of voters sampled in England (49%) said they favoured more devolution to regional authorities or an English parliament.
Totally support this. English parliament for an English nation needed.
Douglas Ross banging on about highest taxes in Uk – it’s true for paye if you earn over £28900 but it is small in comparison to other taxes – someone on £55k pays approx £300 more tax but in England that same person has £1000 more council tax plus prescription fees and if we assume that they have a mortgage then the difference between average house prices between Scotland and England is around £100k so Scots house owners effectively have £8k more disposable income if staying in a comparable property.
Wonder how Douglas could put a positive spin on that differential.
as for cutting taxes to put more money in people’s pockets – that will mean less for public services leading to more privatisation, further increases in energy and council tax so giving a few quid with one hand and taking the shirt of your back with the other!
and 8 k plus in tuition fees if they have children who go to university.
If you cut taxes by cutting public services, people are less well off as they need to pay private companies to provide the services they no longer get from the government. As private companies seek to make a profit, so the services cost more.
Tory MP David Davis on GB news two minutes ago said “pensioners are becoming too wealthy that’s why we’re freezing the thresholds at which they pay tax so they have to pay a little more”
Now the pensioners he’s talking about are not the millionaire bracket bunch, these are recipients of the state pension who are lucky enough to maybe have a little job on the side earning them a couple of grand per year
Right now both English/British parties are using the DWP powers to investigate the bank accounts of recipients of pension credit to see if they have extra cash in their bank accounts, they’re getting ready to lower the threshold of what they call *savings* most pensioners might call it *funeral money” so they can lower the pension credit payment, they’re already finding ways of cutting disability allowance, mobility payments and remember universal credit?
The Labour party is signed up to this as John Swinney has said
Whoever wins this British general election has to find money, they won’t take it from the rich because they are themselves *the rich* they will make excuses about rich people and business running away and leaving the country and not investing and they’ll once again take the easy option and rip the general public off to pay for what they have done
Labour Tory Reform Liberal Democrat, it’s all one and the same great Britain global world beating war mongering showing off projecting their power flag waving imperial colonialist shower of Bastirts
Do not vote for British politics or you’re saying you agree with them and you want them to keep doing it
Vote Scotland to leave them and take our free leccy oil gas and water with us, rejoin the EU like Ireland did and have some pals in the world that don’t make us wait in queues at airports like unwanted Lepers, undo Brexit and bring back all the workers we used to have before England forced us out because Nigel Farage scared the Tories, remember that? well he’s doing it again, but this time he’s scaring the Labour lot as well and could even end up as the bloody Prime Minister
Well you can shove that into your dentist chair Sarwar, because you’re not pulling Scotland’s teeth out for England’s benefit without a fight
That money-grab was on the cards when ALL began calling pensions a “benefit” rather than a right because you had paid into a insurance scheme – Can you imagine the outcry if any insurer refused to pay a claim because you had too much savings ?
It’s miniscule savings to the Treasury on what is already one of the lowest pensions in Europe, but these charlatans don’t give two hoots…
The truth.
Two years of Labour will end the union.
Scots voted 74% for semi independence from a hated Labour UK government followed by the SNP 2007 last time, and that as with a growing economy.
You’d think that anybody even considering voting Labour in Scotland must never watch the TV considering every single broadcaster of each side is saying the same thing
*There’s no money the Tories have fuc*ed us* and every financial institution, that’s every single one of them is insisting there’s £££billions missing, gone, disappeared, vanished, and in order to pay for what Labour promises they’re going to do, the public will pay and pay big time
It makes no difference which political side you’re on the biggest losers are always Scotland, you know Scotland? the little place with only 5.4 million voters that don’t count in the big scheme of English/British politics
Stop the boats, fund Ukraine, fund Israel, claw back the furlough scheme cash, undo the Liz Truss damage to mortgages, except they’re not going to do that last one because she was just the sacrificial lamb served up as something they fully intended to do in the first place, they just needed a patsy or she wouldn’t be still hanging around earning ££millions from after dinner speaking to the people who made all the money out of what she did, Liz Truss is earning the big Tory thank you for the music money that Starmer Sunak and all made big lumps from
People’s jaws must be hanging open in other countries that these people are still walking around, they must think the population of the British isles IQ is in double figures putting up with this
And we’re laughing at America?
watching STV news talking about poll with labour and snp neck and neck omn 36%
interviewing voters in st andrews saying snp in power to long need a change so voting labour.
I give up on peoples intelligence, this is a westminster election, SNP will still be in power in Holyrood after July 4th, no matter who they vote.
Do the same people take out morgages based on if a house is a ceratin colour or think buying a house in Edinburgh will mean they live in Glasgow.
Or buy a used lada car, but think their getting a new Ferrari?
That IS what the media have been selling for weeks if not months, the conflation of Hoyrood with Westminster…
And come 2026 will think that Holyrood electio is another GE.
are there people who really are this thick, bordering on being cretins or does STV just give them an autocue with what to say?
sadly there are people who make no effort to seek out the truth and those are the people the MSM seek out to suit their SNP bad Scotland is Sh*** agenda
Connor will be getting his jotters:
https://x.com/i/status/1800885900391719035
Brilliant LOL
Obviously a breakdown at communication headquarters caused this one to get out.
£100 quid says he didnae expect that reaction from a couple of local pensioners that he couldnae cut off mid sentence
What a joy those folk are
Interesting as captured live, this is the ‘Nick Robinson’/official version – Compare and contrast… https://youtu.be/Q0NhpQb7bu0 🤣
The media in Scotland don’t like it when you make them the story so they hide it from the rest of us. That’s our biggest problem, people don’t know the truth because it’s hidden from them all the time.
So if there were to be a referendum tomorrow a new poll shows Scotland would vote for independence
The indication is that folk who may vote Labour believe they are doing it to get rid of the Tories, they’re wrong, Labour are the Tories and on reading this poll will immediately put their plan into action of making sure Scotland cannot vote on anything within their turn in Westminster
Voting Labour is voting for England/Britain dictatorship no matter which of the English/British parties wins
Voting SNP is telling England’s Britain we don’t want them no matter who they vote in at Westminster
I think we can now tentatively conclude that Labour have lost the apparent lead they seem to have had, if it existed at all in reality. Two polls in a row showing this now, with statistical level pegging.
In 2011, Leadership was a better judge when Labour were ahead:
Interesting, but this is with turnout levels remaining very low.
Certain to vote is just 68%, which implies a turnout of 57.9%, so would be the lowest in Scotland ever. Labour fail to win over Scots completely. Scotland gets a hated Labour government it didn’t vote for as 2/3 reject the party. The seats Labour gained would only be so with the headline caveat ‘Because Scots stayed at home but could not for for indy’.
Certain to vote was 80% in IPSOS just ahead of 2019. It was 71% mid term, to give you an idea how low this poll’s 68% is.
It suggests that silent SNP remain so; 10.2% of the electorate here. Even IPSOS cannot avoid these; they were heavily impacted, just less so than the English panel pollsters.
SNP are up compared to general recent polling because certain to vote has gone up a little bit. Or it may be SNP are still at the same level as their VI is a ‘no change’ statistically on January’s IPSOS. It’s hard to know because of the huge sampling gap. Data for other polls suggest the SNP apparently did take a hit late May, and if IPSOS had sampled then, they should have found SNP lower than they just have.
Labour have only taken from the Tories here, which has been a feature of late.
The silent SNP is also inflating others, which remains at a silly 9%. That just never happens, especially under FPTP. Once that drops in polls to a few%, then you know they’re approaching the outcome.
I note finally that these numbers are a bit old now. The bulk of the sampling would have been 3-5 June, so a week ago.
So, taking crossover polls from a week ago, and recent UK wide showing the SNP edging up, it’s quite possible the SNP are now back ahead again and climbing.
With Labour trending downwards UK-wide as turnout edges up, it might also make sense for the same to be happening here in Scotland too.
As for indyref vote; to have Yes so high in an IPSOS that is at face value better for the unionist than usual, is excellent news. You can see why Sarwar is deeply worried about this, and trying to appeal to Yes voters.
He knows they’re lost to the union, hence he’s not trying to turn them back to it, just hoping they might help get his mates on the London gravy train for few years before it ends.
Time for some SNP optimism. Bums should start squeaking in earnest for Labour. What if, like 1997, 10% of that lead is Scotch mist, and will vanish vs final polls? Similar happened in 2015.
I note Salmond 2011 and Sturgeon 2019 were both a couple of point net negative ahead of respective elections.
Nearest rivals were double digit negative.
Swinney leaving Sarwar for dust again in the best FM stakes.
49% Swinney
32% Sarwar
19% Ross
Ex DK
That’s with 10.4% of the electorate disengaged from pollsters still, and pretty much all of them SNP.
Well, in England at least, certain to vote levels are rising. This is starting to eating into Labour’s VI as they stand still on 22.7% of the total electorate, up 1% on 2019’s worst defeat since 1935.
It’s going to Reform mainly, who are up 1% of total electorate.
In Scotland, data continues to show the SNP up. Both Wiki and politico.eu showing the same.
How sad.
Man arrested in relation to Covid-era contracts for PPE Medpro
https://www.ft.com/content/98d3cdf0-f2bc-4038-9d6e-1e2b5c75f38a
So, the SNP main page always has the start of 8 articles and a link to each. snp.org – Starting with the oldest article, the last line or two are these:
I like it so far.
This suggest the SNP share is more likely to go up than down, as it’s the one that’s now the firmest of the campaign, even though it came from the furthest behind relatively speaking.
Labour vote is much weaker and wavering. Tory the weakest of all three.
I have a cure for BBC Twonk Nick Robinson’s sore throat
Has anyone ever seen Xander Elliards and Nick Robinson in a room at the same time? They seem to suffer from the same lack of understanding of the spooken word. Or even spoken one.
Anyways, I wonder if Quebec will come into play?
“In summary, the international law right to self-determination only generates, at best, a right to external self-determination in situations of former colonies; where a people is oppressed, as for example under foreign military occupation; or where a definable group is denied meaningful access to government to pursue their political, economic, social and cultural development. In all three situations, the people in question are entitled to a right to external self-determination because they have been denied the ability to exert internally their right to self-determination. Such exceptional circumstances are manifestly inapplicable to Quebec under existing conditions.”
In terms of “democratic effect to the rights of the people of Scotland to be independent”.
https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2022-0098-judgment.pdf
First stop – UK Government, who then deny Scotland “the ability to exert internally their right to self-determination“. And when that fails, where next …
Answer came there none!
“The people of Scotland would have the final say on their future in a referendum, no Scottish government would just declare independence without the co-operation of the electorate. Negotiations with the UK government are about an agreed process towards independence, not about permissions to have such a referendum, that power will be with the Scottish government should the SNP win the majority of seats at the general election”
For those who don’t know and the benefit of BBC Twonks like Nick Robinson who try to twist words to mean something else
Labour down again UK wide in the latest polls. Ties in with them potentially having lost any lead they might have had in Scotland, at least in English panel polls. IPSOS Scotland say they were never ahead, but there’s been too big a sampling gap to know this.
UK latest with recent changes:
39(-7)% People polling
41(-4)% More in Common
41(-4)% Norstat
38(-3)% YouGov
42(-2)% focaldata
41(-2)% Survation
Upper 30’s starting to appear, and you can see how the falls are growing in size. Squeaky bum time for Starmer. These are steep changes, as shown in the wiki wobble.
Blair saw this kind of last minute downturn. Until just a couple of days before the vote he was polling into the low 50’s. Only the very final ICM poll told the truth. 43%, not the 53% he’d been riding high on ‘due to the final demise of the Tories’.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election
Now Tory are going down here too of course, so Starmer is holding his lead. However, mandate ultimately comes from vote share, not seats. Starmer’s already weak mandate seems to be weakening ever more, and rapidly.
Another key nugget from IPSOS
In a better poll for the unionists, SNP doing very well.
Within MoE, people don’t think Labour could improve the NHS. They think the SNP are better when it comes to the economy, while thinking Labour could not do any better than the SNP are on education. They do understand that correctly, it is only Labour that can tackle the cost of living crisis as it’s a reserved matter, but clearly don’t hold out much expectation here, with just 31% rating them for tackling this. By contrast, folks know there is very little the SNP can do with their hands tied behind their backs. Some benefits top ups etc, but it’s treating the symptoms not the cause.
However, one factor trumps all. One where the SNP are miles head of the competition. Who people can trust to stand up for their country in very difficult times against a deeply disliked incoming UK government.
A whopping 4 in 10 people leaning to Labour right now openly believe Labour will not stand up for Scotland. Hence 36% VI falls to just 21% here.
The SNP win hands down here. 58% excluding the DKs.
If you want MPs that can and will stand up for Scotland. Who you believe will do just as good or a better job than Labour… you know who to vote for Scots.
So aye, UK-wide trends are as follows:
Certain to vote – slowly rising
Reform – rising sharply
SNP – rising steadily
Lib – beginning to trend up
Green – beginning to trend up
Labour – falling sharply
Conservative – falling sharply
The UK wide pattern holds in Scotland with the exception of Reform and Green, who are starting to trend down from silly mid term numbers as certain to vote creeps up. I note Farage openly states Reform are not going anywhere in Scotland.
If this keeps up, we may be heading towards an election where both cheeks of the same erse take a bruising. Would that really be a surprise given that, even in England, they are saying Labour would be ‘the most unpopular incoming government in history’?
34(-1)% labour in the locals just recently is where my current 2nd order poly fit meets election day, albeit we are projecting quite far, i.e. half the campaign period. If the reform rise did continue, they could overtaken Con before voting day. That would be very helpful for indy. ‘Reform to be the official opposition’ headlines would definitely help with the undecided in Scotland – they’d need to vote SNP to protect their country through independence.
The most important thing, as always for indy, is that Starmer does win the keys to number 10, while being rejected by 2/3 or more of Scots on on a low turnout (or worse for Labour). That is what gives us indy by 2026. SNP bouncing back from polling lows would simply be a bonus. Scotland’s future will be decided in Scotland, not London, England. Not in this election, although it seems it will set the scene, triggering the final demise of the UK.
Maybe we are looking at a 2010 type election, but with Labour winning a small majority or just shy of. That would give us a 2011 in 2026, but with Yes starting from majority, not from modest minority.
The problem the SNP have is they’re not perfect
When you see phrases like that written down it’s then you realise how the media deliberately screw people up every time they try to influence voters to swing certain ways, and if the media are so smart and give the appearance that they have all the answers to the questions the public have why don’t they stand for parliament with all this certainty and brilliant knowledge they tell us they possess
The media influence politics without accountability
They don’t ever have to answer for what they’ve done after they do it, they deliberately manipulate voters minds by asking and answering their own questions as though they themselves are the politicians, they create graphs polls then analyse their own work to make it appear that the answer they’ve come to is the right one
The great British media are the biggest secret yet public unaccountable political party there is, they lift us up and plonk us down at will, they stream banner headlines across the bottoms of their screens, they cover their newspapers in big writing full of ridicule or hate depending on which flavour of piece of paper you want to lie to you over your breakfast
The great British media are peddlers of shite wrapped up in tomorrows chip paper or sandwiched between episodes of what they call reality TV that bears no relation to any reality that any normal person will ever experience
They sell us shite lies and fantasy then have the cheek to tell us they know better than we do, they go to university to learn how to do this, and in Scotland what’s worse is we let them educate themselves in how to make an Arse of us for free
You want free and fair elections and the truth? there’s only one way to get it, stop funding the UK of England’s pretendy TV tax, there’s no license fee, there’s only a tax on owning a TV, then stop buying newspapers permanently
Put the Great British media out of business by ignoring them, then when they’re still operating ask yourself how they’re doing it with no money and who’s paying them to keep going, then you’ll have the truth about the Great British state of imperial England in which you happen to be a colonial
”The Great British Media ” of course , is anything but British ! Just like most of our Railways , Water Companies ( English ) , Banks , Telecommunications Companies , and many politicians … British ( sic ) Newspapers are mostly owned by furriners ! They have no stake in electing a Government at Westmonster which serves the people .
Ok, as per recent comments, the SNP are definitely up a bit since the GE campaign began. This is being seen in full Scotch / Scottish polls, and UK-wide polls. 5-6% or so.
But what has struck me, is that this has happened with only the teeniest change in certain to vote levels / turnout projection.
Our two most recent (just over 1 week ago now fieldwork wise) have the SNP on 35%. Based on 2015-2019 Scotland, that level of VI should need a 65% turnout projection as illustrated.
Yet look at the 2024 recent polling data. 35% is being achieved on a 57% TO projection. Those points are not on the pre-2019 trend, but very far from it. This very, very strongly implies things are extremely different now.
It suggests that not only is the SNP much stronger than ahead of 2019, being able to call upon a much higher level of support per unit turnout, but that any turnout rise should favour them far more than it has ever done. You can see what I mean in that an 0.5% rise has seen them jump 5 points or so (they were as low as 29% pre-GE announcement).
Now care should be taken in sticking a line through those points in terms of what’s TO is needed for e.g. 45% VI, but the data do very, very strongly indicate that it’s a hell of a lot lower than in the last 3 GEs. Could be done on less than 60%.
Now I warn that polling data is very weird right now, but this says to me me things are very volatile. Not just does it suggest that SNP could shoot up sharply, but the steep slope of that recent trend goes to explain how we have had such polling volatility in Scotland. A low response rate from SNP 2019 causing a small TO projection fall and suddenly Labour have a 10 point lead. It creeps up a fraction and suddenly they’re level pegging. Catch my drift? That’s that a steep trend creates.
The fact the SNP are up a big without TO climbing much means that they should be getting a net transfer of votes from unionist parties, mainly Labour, as thats where the churn has been.
If I were Labour I would be desperately praying that the TO projection for in Scotland stays a record low, because polls could literally change overnight if it goes up, and the data says it would not be in their favour. Of course such a low turnout would me zero Scottish mandate for Starmer, even if he did win a lot of titantic deck chairs.
Such a situation is not implausible given how mutually in unpopular Lab and Con are UK wide. Do people really think Scots are warming to one of two erse cheeks when English voters can’t stand them? This data agrees with such erse cheek unpopularity strengthening the SNP, but just not manifesting in VI due to very low engagement. It also agrees with the steady increase in Yes since 2019, even with the SNP’s woes.
Expect the unexpected. But this looks super volatile for me. And if you do get sudden rises in turnout, you will get massive changes in VI. The two come hand in hand.
As if he could not get more ridiculous, ‘el suito’ himself has posted yet another layer of distraction on the BBC Scotland website, ” How could global turmoil affect the election in Scotland? ” https://archive.ph/DzAHC – As is it was not bad enough James Cook’s propaganda outfit conflating a General Election in Scotland with a Holyrood one, he’s now extending the franchise ” Some may want to make a much wider point about the overall system within which the NHS is run, whether that is to support Scotland’s 317-year-old union with England, or to signal a desire for Scotland to become independent. “
I’m waiting to see an ” How a short arsed propagandist attempts to affect the election in Scotland ” article appear…
The media is working very hard at appearing unbiased in their exertions and contortions in getting Labour elected in Scotland
One wonders if there are still viewers at home who really believe the BBC employees take some sort of vow of political celibacy and never have any personal preference or instructions from their bosses
If that really were the case we wouldn’t need media at all and we could just employ artificial intelligence to disseminate dismember or distort the news at the press of a button, cheaper too
Never mind ”a vow of political celibacy ” for BBC pundits , I would prefer a political vasectomy ( if not full on castration !).
Meanwhile OT, I’d totally support this:
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24385420.new-aberdeen-railway-line-boost-economy-study-finds/
connecting (or re-connecting) Aberdeen to Peterhead and Fraserburgh by rail. See how they grow.
I’d also like to see a further plan at least, for continuing on round the coast to Inverness, though that would presumably be a lot more expensive.
I’ve done this on Railroad Tycoon 🙂
Agree totally ! A National Rail Network needs to reach ALL major population centres .
How will it be paid for ? Hmmm ! Scrap our Genocide Missiles and Subs and plough the money into making lives better NOT threatening mass slaughter .
A Novel idea , I know , one that many politicians with their fingers poised over The Button cannot understand !
Well, I think we can maybe do Fraserburgh within Devolution. But it would definitely need Independence to get to Inverness – and maybe later continue up the coast to Wick. Berriedale Braes might be a problem all the same …
There is a railway line from Inverness to Wick at the moment.
I’m meaning the coast and “direct” – Helmsdale to Wick. Wick’s a bit neglected with the A9 bypassing it these days.
The A9 splits at Latheron. A9 goes to Thurso and the A99 goes from Latheron to Wick which is a distance of 17 miles and a journey time of around 20 mins or so by car. So Wick not exactly cut off.
It may take 4 and a half hours to go from Inverness to Wick but at least there is a line there. Much better to upgrade the A9.
Hmm, it’s not just certain to vote levels rising that eating into Labour share UK-wide, but they do also seem to be losing real voters. There share of total electorate is slipping down based on all the data.
Started after the first two erse cheeks head to head debate on 4th June.
That seems to have triggered people to start thinking about who to vote for, and both are losing support.
Was reading this English paper reporting ‘Scotland fans involved in violence’ and though ‘that would be usual for tartan army.
Looked at the pics and the troublemakers were not wearing Scotland strips.
Then read below the headline. Then I realised the attempt to mislead.
https://archive.is/SB7cX
Euro 2024: Scotland fans involved in bar fight as chairs thrown and violence erupts
Scotland ‘s Euro 2024 preparations have been marred by fan violence after a bar fight broke out in Germany.
Supporters have travelled over to Munich ahead of Friday’s clash between the two nations but things took a sour turn on Wednesday evening. Two individuals appeared to get into an argument with supporters in Marienplatz, in the heart of the German city.
A scuffle broke out before the pair left. They then returned and started throwing chairs at a group of Scotland supporters.
As well as chairs, the two men were also spotted throwing stein glasses at the group. It has been suggested by the Daily Record that no one sustained injuries from the scenes.
What if the two assaulting Scotland fans were English? Not outwith the bounds of possibility.
The media shit stirrers as usual when it comes to Scotland are at it.
Reality today
Some will get drunk and have their ears felt, but the tartan army really do have such a good reputation for not causing trouble, but instead being very well behaved, even with a few too many bevvies.
Trust the North British Daily Labour to try and pretend otherwise.
A statement for Munich Police said: ” At around 9:40 p.m. there was an argument between several people in the area of Marienplatz. There were around 300 Scottish football fans there. Two heavily intoxicated men (Scottish fans) threw a beer mug and a chair into a group of bystanders (also Scottish fans). However, no one was injured in the argument. The two perpetrators have been provisionally arrested. They are now facing criminal proceedings for attempted grievous bodily harm.”
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/violence-erupts-munich-scotland-fans-33018252
Just sounds like some people had too much to drink and have a fight. Happens all the time. I’m sure there will be fans from many of the countries involved in the Euros doing the same over the next few weeks.
Thanks, as you allude to, the headline is misleading. It reads like there was some large scale rioting involving Scots fans attacking locals or something.
We don’t know the national identity of the trouble makers, but from the police reports, we know they were British (they’d have had to show passports with arrest). They should be described as such as a result in newspapers. From what I could see, they did not have Scotland tops on, so it’s not immediately obvious they are Scotland fans. However, the police seem to think this.
I note in Scotland we have British people who are not Scottish in any national sense. They see Scotland as a British footie team and support it in that way. Weird but true.
Sky news are showing how Labour are going to enforce crippling austerity on the UK / Scotland. Graph showing the spending commitments now vs 2019 is truly something. They are proposing to invest a fraction of what they proposed in previous elections into public services. Libs a third cheek of the erse.
The only party planning to seriously invest plus tax the rich in England is the Greens.
No wonder Labour are tanking in the polls it seems.
There’s an awful lot of heavy lifting going on in this story by the Daily Rancid.
How many “Scotland supporters” were involved and who started what?
I saw a chair on the ground and glasses being thrown from the people seated and then the guy in white retaliates by throwing the chair back at the group throwing the glasses. I could not identify any one of those involved as a “Scotland fan”.
Even if they were it’s hardly a big deal when some drunk has an argument with another in a pub and handbags at dawn come out. As I said earlier this is media shit stirring just for the sake of it, it’s what they do.
It seems the floor is very slippy and Starmer is losing grip of the Ming vase.
Little doubt about it now. Last few UK polls all showing the same.
The two cheeks are tanking, and if the pace this is happening keeps up, the picture may be a world away from the start of the campaign when we get to voting day in 3 weeks time.
The smaller parties, SNP included, are all variably gaining from it.
Here in the wiki wobble:
This is with turnout projections remaining desperately low.
The gold rule of elections is you want to be going up towards voting day, if you are going down, it is likely to accelerate, and you may score even worse than your final polling.
SNP knew all about this in 2017. Now it looks like it’s Labour’s turn.
Something is up.
https://archive.is/R4WzN
Reform overtakes Tories in poll for first time
YouGov survey for The Times finds backing for Nigel Farage’s party at 19%, one point above Rishi Sunak’s party
Not only that, but Labour are tanking. 37% here. Yougov had them mid to upper 40’s before the campaign.