You may have noticed that we are going to have a Westminster general election on 4 July. Yet despite the fact that after fourteen miserable years we are finally poised to get rid of the most right wing, mendacious, corrupt, cruel, and chaotic government in living memory, there’s no real widespread excitement and anticipation. That is entirely due to the dismal and disappointing nature of what is likely to replace the Tories. It’s hardly rocket science to know that populism, Brexit, privatisation and obeisance to corporate greed don’t work – just look at the past 14 years for evidence, but for all Keir Starmer’s talk of change, that is exactly what he is going to give us. Both Starmer and Sunak speak of radicalism and change but neither is proposing anything of the sort.
Turn on the radio or TV and although we’ll hear all about the election there’s hardly any mention of Brexit at all even though everyone knows it has failed, failed catastrophically. Even leavers know it, convincing themselves it was handled wrongly when the real reason it failed is because it could never have worked in the first place, it was never designed or intended to do what it was sold to the public as doing, despite the many billions of pounds and the political capital and international standing of the UK that have been wasted in trying to make it work. Yet when pinned down all that Starmer says is that we’ve got to make Brexit work. The very beginnings of change and radicalism are discarding what doesn’t work. Starmer is not willing to discard the hard right Brexit of the Tories even though it is a far more extreme form of Brexit than the Leave campaign promised during the 2016 EU referendum. He’s not even willing to rejoin the European Single Market or Customs Union, the absolute minimum that is required to “make Brexit work.”
Above all else Starmer needs money to rebuild and restore Britain from the wreckage the Tories are leaving. The obvious way to acquire these funds is to focus on the broadest shoulders, Starmer was right to say in 2020 when he was campaigning for the leadership of the Labour party that he would increase income tax for the top 5% of earners, reverse the Tories’ cuts in corporation tax and clamp down on tax avoidance, particularly that of large corporations. He vowed there would be no stepping back from the core principles of the Labour party but he has ditched all the promises that he made back then. As he constantly boasts, he has changed the Labour party. He has changed it into a more competent version of the Tories. That’s the only real change that Starmer is offering, the somewhat more competent delivery of the same right wing populist corporate pleasing policies which have brought public services in the UK to their knees. When you promise change but you are committed to Tory spending plans, you’re lying. Starmer lied in order to win the leadership of the Labour party, he’s lying again now.
Starmer said all the right things in 2020, when he was seeking the leadership of the Labour party, now he’s all, “There’s nowt I can do gov, it was like that when I found it.” All the promises he made in order to secure the leadership of the Labour party have been ditched. He never had the slightest intention of keeping his word. Once he got into office he ruthlessly purged the left of the party. Right wing Tory MPs like Natalie Elphicke are welcome in the Labour party, left wing stalwarts like Diane Abbott and Jeremy Corbyn are not.
Starmer, just like the Tories, has no interest in Scotland, he and Sunak are two peas in the same British nationalist pod. Both Starmer and Sunak are united in their determination to traduce democracy in Scotland. The only popular votes in Scotland which they respect are those which they happen to agree with. They only pay attention to Scotland when they fear that it is a political threat. The real reason that Starmer wants to defeat the SNP in Scotland is so that he can get back to what Anglo-British flag shagging nationalists like him believe to be the proper order of things – ignoring Scotland entirely except as an obedient province of a unitary British national state. If you vote Labour in Scotland you are voting to be ignored and marginalised.
Uninspired, unimaginative, unimpressive and unrealistic are what’s on offer and are exactly what we will get. When an MP as hard right as Natalie Elphicke can slip from party to party, and be welcomed by Starmer with open arms it’s hard to conclude there are any meaningful differences. No wonder this is the Meh-neral election, devoid of excitement and enthusiasm.
After introducing a series of vote suppressing measures, the Tories have decided to encourage young people to vote after all, with the weekend’s announcement of the right wing wet dream of a policy to reintroduce national service. If there’s one way to ensure that young people register to vote and motivate them to turn up at the ballot station with the correct ID, it’s to tell them that they’ll be conscripted and used as cannon fodder for the fever dreams of British nationalist imperialists if they don’t. The way to tackle knife crime amongst young people is to force them to join the army where they can learn more effective methods of killing and maiming people.
People who are too old and too rich to do national service have decided to impose it upon the young people whose futures they have stolen. Nobody born since October 1939 has undertaken National Service in the UK. Those people are now aged at least 85. This policy is aimed at winning the votes of people who never did National Service themselves but who want to force others to do it. Those who did do National Service, like my late husband Andy, almost universally agree that it was a brutalising waste of time.
The Tories have said national service would cost £2.5 billion a year, the money that apparently wasn’t available to pay for pay rises in the NHS and avoid strikes in the beleaguered health service. Yet all of a sudden the cash is magically available.
Remember that thanks to the Tories’ voter suppression laws you need photo ID in order vote, a driving licence or passport or another accepted form of ID. If you don’t have any you can apply for a voter authority certificate instead.
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I think it’s panic which is driving this election and its bizarre policy announcements. I thought Sunak might cut and run in May at the time of the English Local Elections. Things are clearly not going to get better. But the drubbing they got in May and the shocking triumph of George Galloway in Rochdale forced him out to the doorstep of No 10 with his podium warning of the scary future we face. Extremists are all around us.
Sir Keir is a safe pair of hands. Nothing will change. After a few years the Tories will be back.
Beam us up JS.
Not only is there no difference between Sunak and Starmer , they intend to prevent any other party leader from exposing this by refusing to accept any TV debates that include anyone who is not named Sunak or Starmer .
These two party ( sic ) debates would be so anodyne that anyone viewing for more than a nano second will be in such a deeply comatose state that they will likely miss the last few weeks of the campaign ( lucky them ! ).
A Sunak v Starmer debate would be a serious rival to Netflix’s ‘Fireplace for your Home ‘ , which is an hour long program watching a fire burning in the grate – though , on second thoughts , this would be far more stimulating than a Tory versus Labour debate.
Ooh! That sounds interesting. Can we have a link?
To the fireplace, not the debate…! 😀
The Labour party always reminds me of the 100 typing monkeys story
eventually one of the monkeys will type something somebody can read
………Eventually
But never today
His family firm won’t even pay the living wage in a cost of living crisis, all so he can have more money coming in to his household personally.
That’s Starmer’s new Conservatives for you. They’ve no need to visit the foodbank, that’s for sure.
https://archive.is/NMh1c
Sarwar accused of hypocrisy over Labour living wage plan
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has confirmed that not all workers at his family’s wholesale business are currently paid the real living wage.
Just donated to the SNP again. For Scotland, and for those less fortunate in our society, which Starmer’s Labour could not give a sh*t about.
It’s rancid, like their fake, shiny white teeth smiles
Interesting.
https://archive.is/8tkrZ
A COPFS spokesperson said: “A standard prosecution report has been received by the Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service from Police Scotland in relation to a 59-year-old man and incidents said to have occurred between 2016 and 2023.
So I am now supposed to believe that serious crimes that pre-date any complaints of this, openly continued to be committed during an ongoing and well publicised police investigating into said crimes, right up to the time the suspect stepped down?
Oki-doki. Righto. I am tempted to move a further decent part of my bet over to ‘will be dropped post-election’.
Even when the EBC are grudgingly forced to correct their Lies. They still spin it and conflated items in an effort to blur or completely hide the truth.
Example this sentence from their correction of a bare faced lie in the original article, refers to a standardised from of reporting that always gives X, Y, Z, & A, B, C in a constant format in order that the reader may make comparisons or access information in the same standard position within the report.
Last Thursday, police said in a statement: “Police Scotland has today submitted a standard prosecution report to the Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service in relation to a 59-year-old man who was charged on 18 April, 2024, in connection with the embezzlement of funds from the Scottish National Party.
The lack of the ending parentheses and or a full stop (see my bold Highlight) allows them to run two(2) possibly three(3) sentences together into one. Thereby conflating two entirely separate pieces of information. Implying that the report was a damming one and the individual in question is headed for the tower.
When in fact the report may just as easily state that after exhaustive investigation they have found no, or insufficient corroborated evidence to justify the original report of a crime.
And are at this time considering bringing charges against several individuals as well as the original complainants for false reporting and the waste of police time and resources.
This is how bad things had to be that the Prime Minister thought it was a good idea to introduce National Service in the UK.
No hesitation in providing something in Cymraeg/Welsh at the time (‘Gwasanaeth Cenedlaethol’) when the language had no status whatsoever … and yet now, when it has official status in Cymru, and HMG Departments are obliged to provide literature, materials etc. in the language of choice of the Welsh user, they drag their heels, they say it costs too much to produce etc etc.
So, when it’s a case of dying for ‘our [sic.] country’ the British will happily supply you the information required to help you do so.
But if you want a driving licence in your own language in your own country as you pootle about in your car, ‘Nah, it’ll take ages to produce, it will cost the earth, and you really are a troublemaker for asking for one’. (Perm any two out of three.)
Just watched this again, and noticed how carefully they presented those pamphlets.
– The first is aimed at the Jocks – (0.50) Clearly the Scottish Royal Arms
– The second is for the Welsh speaking Taffs* – (0.52) Gwasanaeth Cenedlaethol (as previously mentioned)
– The final one for the English – (0.53) The UK Royal Arms
*From the latest [1931] Census, out of a population of just over 2.5 million, the percentage of Welsh speakers in Wales was 36.8%.
Strange the Celts get priority over the English in the killing fields, isn’t it … but nowhere else!
”Ask not what your Government can do for you , but what you can do to maintain the fiction that this country ( sic )is actually still functioning !”
Was that Keir Starmer on Britain’s Got Talent, dressed as a goldfish?
As for Sunak and his brutal National Service, some will have read General Sir John Hackett’s The Third World War, and remember that in it the Soviets invaded West Germany from East Germany advancing on the Rhine, relying on a fast advance to reach the channel ports and also prevent the Yanks from reinforcing the West.
Reservists were slung into the front line to slow down the advance, giving the West time to bring in the regular armies and dig in. Casualties were 95% of these barely trained reservists, but they gave the West its 24 hours over their dead bodies.
Yes it was fiction, quite realistic fiction all the same – General Sir John Hackett was, on 14 April 1966, was appointed command of the British Army of the Rhine (BAOR) and the parallel command of NATO’s Northern Army Group. He knew a thing or two.
So imagine this as the 18 year old conscripts, then or later in their lives, thrown into the front line to buy time for the slimmed down regular armies to take their positions?
Sunak wouldn’t give a flying one if they all died.
Okey-doke. I finally read this:
https://archive.is/umVCl
“Tory minister rejected plans for national service days before pledge“
and it turns out it’s “Andrew Murrison said there were “no plans” to restore the policy, saying that it could damage morale if “potentially unwilling” recruits were forced to serve alongside armed forces personnel.”
Some may remember Murrison as the evasive defence minister who, under pressure and pinned down first by Simon Reevell and then by the Chair to tell the truth in an SAC 12 November 2013 was forced to say this:
“Q3853 Chair [Mr Ian Davidson MP]: But we have just heard in relation to article 346 and the Clyde shipyards that there is no reason why, with article 346, you cannot award them the order. Presumably, exactly the same would apply to Typhoon.
Dr Murrison: Yes.“
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmscotaf/140/140ii.pdf (EV 38)
Unionists had been using TFEU A346 to say that the rUK could NOT build the then planned 13 Type 26 frigates on the Clyde. They lied.
If people want to join a reserve military they can already. Like the TA. A bit of a waste of money.
They should be putting funds into the NHS. Not the military. Trident and redundant weaponry. Westminster, Johnston caused the war in Ukraine. Reneged on agreements and funded war in Ukraine.
Westminster would rather kill people than keep them well.
Austerity. Brexit. Wasting £Billions. HS2, Hickley Point.
They need to Britishify the young ‘uns. Specially the Scots.
Johnston did many stupid things. However he DID NOT cause the war in Ukraine so please stop spreading misinformation.
26Millions Russian died in WW2 saving the West. 1/2 million died in Britain and France.
Glasnost and Perestroika 150Million people got self governance and self determination. One of the reason for Devolution. East European states had more democracy than Scotland.
It’s like they read my comment.
https://archive.is/oZPNi
Why does Sinn Fein fight for Westminster seats its MPs won’t occupy?
The nationalist party is riding high, but even if it wins more seats in the upcoming General Election, its origins and identity mean they would not play any part in parliamentary affairs…
…Becoming the largest Northern Ireland party at Westminster would be yet another significant political moment.
More Northern Ireland seats would be empty than occupied in the UK parliament.
Which would be clearly unsustainable, and the International community would intervene again. The idea that the people of the NoI could vote, under British / English rules, to withdraw from Westminster, and England (it’s not Scotland or Wales doing this is it) could just move to direct rule (which it would be) is for the birds.
And with Starmer in No. 10, the union would be under more threat than ever. After all, Starmer is a plastic ‘I’ll be whatever you want me to be’ Tory, and Labour were the authors of the GFA. The pro-reunification SDLP are their sister party, and Labour is supposed to support reunification in principle.
A Labour government is what ends the union in all sorts of ways, not least because it is weak, indecisive, and wouldn’t send in the tanks like a Tory one might be tempted to.
Fingers cross for a pro-reunification majority in the North of Ireland, an SNP majority here, and Labour in number 10. That would be perfect. Come on Starmer, you can do this! We pro-indy / pro-reunification folks need you to be the hated London government we didn’t vote for, and a gutless one with it.
Another day, anther BBC reporting like there are only 2+1 parties standing. Lab / Con, and the party with loads of seats in the HoC etc, Reform.
I suppose this is good in that it reinforces to Scots that they can never get a government they desire / vote for as part of the UK. Not ever. Even if 45% voted Labour on a solid turnout, it would still be a government overwhelmingly opposed by 55% of the Scottish electorate. The only way for Scots to get what they vote for is independence.
I of course want Labour to win the UKGE, as I always do, as this helps independence. If we get the Tories, the story is sold that things will be better when Labour return, so we Scotch just need to hold out for that. Of course that’s shite, and when Labour are in No. 10, the independence movement accelerates. When the Tories are in power, we Scots take slow, steady steps. When Labour are in power, we start to run.
I wanted Labour to win in 1997 because I predicted it would deliver devolution as promised (this time!), and Blairism would give us our first pro-indy Scottish government, which it did. It was not the Tories that had Scots vote 74% for semi-independence, it was a Labour UK government that. the 1997 referendum was a vote to reduce London Labour’s rule over Scotland. It was not the Tories that put the SNP into power in 2007, leading to 2011, but Labour.
Which is why we should all hope Starmer can hold onto his weak, largely fake lead, and get the keys to No. 10. Blair delivered us an SNP government. Starmer will deliver us independence.
Everything says to me Britain is sleepwalking into its final UK election. It is like 1997 in the sense that delivered semi-independence. This time we’ll go the whole hog.
If ever proof were needed that the public do not vote for particular candidates in elections then this election shows that up starkly when you consider the Labour party are still almost 100 candidates short of their target yet amazingly pollsters are able to rate the chances of victory in a general election
People vote for parties and or leaders, they know their local MP is selected as drone fodder so that if they win their party can say they are excellent hard working candidates and will definitely make a fine MP for whichever area they now represent
If they lose? Oh dear how sad never mind
And once the election is over everybody who voted for them couldn’t remember their names under threat of torture
That’s the system successive English governments have created shoved onto us and pretend is democracy, what’s worse is people go right along with it as though this should be accepted as fine and dandy
I mean it’s really not is it?
Labour have two MPs in Scotland, if they win the general election guess how many of them nobody will have ever heard of, or even seen, or will ever see again unless they watch the house of commons TV shows to see their blank staring faces just sitting there doing nothing because that’s what they were hired to do
And you voted for that? people you don’t know, some not even from Scotland and never will be just so you can get a guy you dislike less than the other guy from the other country to be the Prime Minister you don’t really want anyway
That’s what England is selling Scotland, are you really going to buy that?
Another scoop from Prof Robertson – maybe. Anas Sarwar’s company has agreed to pay all workers above the living wage. This happy news was announced last night by an anonymous USDAW rep.
By a remarkable coincidence, one USDAW rep is now the Labour candidate for Edinburgh North and Leith.
Thank goodness there’s an election coming up restoring the power of the unions to negotiate a living wage.
https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2024/05/27/is-this-the-labour-candidate-who-leads-the-union-that-conveniently-covered-sarwars-poverty-wages-shame-at-the-last-minute/
This has been going on for a number of years with Sarwar, it began with cash and carry outlets to individual shops from years back that his father supplied workers from the Punjab to fill the jobs
In this current case the employees were not being paid the living wage in the morning then Sarwar was exposed by the BBC and everybody ran around like blue Arsed flies and by tea time they were all being paid and nothing to see here
I have mentioned a number of times about dentist practices springing up around Scotland that refuse NHS patients, there are now quite a few, and guess who owns shares in them? go on guess
Eeerrrm…
No. Sorry.
Can I phone a friend? 😀
I’ll give you 50:50
Is it, A: Anas Sarwar or B: A. Sarwar?
I nearly said Sarwar! 😀
Do these dentist practices have any connection with Manchester? Asking for a friend.
Well, according to the National:
“The Scottish Liberal Democrats have launched their General Election campaign in North Queensferry with a focus on dentistry, which is a devolved matter.“
So those who say they haven’t got their finger on the pulse must be being unfair to the poor souls…
They’ve coordinated this with their English HQ:
Welsh Lib Dems call for end to ‘dental drought’ (nation.cymru)
The Welsh Liberal Democrats have called for an end to what it calls “the dental drought” in Wales.
[…]
The Welsh Lib Dems are urging voters to send a “powerful message” to both the Welsh Labour Government and UK Conservative Government who it says have both failed to give dentistry the priority it deserves.
The party’s plans for solving the dental crisis in Wales include better recruitment and retention of dentists and more support for local services.
[…]
I see the unions had to force Sarwars family into finally paying all staff the real living wage. BBC spins this as some sort of vindication of him and family firm
You have to laugh at this *family business* that he doesn’t own shit, my wife owned my business for thirty years, I of course received no profit wages or any income whatsoever
Ya wanna buy a dentist practice? cash and carry? wholesale warehouse? nowt tae dae wae me big man says Sarwar, I’m just a rat catcher that gangs roon sticking the wee biters intae cooncil bins and hospitals afore the TV cameras that I phoned earlier arrive
It’s hard paintin the SNP logo on them mind
From Starmer’s speech this morning:
[…]
Like everyone, I imagine my character is shaped by where I started in life. I grew up in a small town, not a million miles away from here, a place called Oxted on the Surrey-Kent border.
Similar to Lancing, minus the sea. And should you go to Oxted, some of you could stop off if you’re travelling back to London, you will see a place that, in my opinion, is about as English as it gets. [My emphasis]
A mix of Victorian red bricks and pebble-dashed semis while all around you have rolling pastures and the beautiful chalk hills of the North Downs.
I loved growing up there. You could make easy pocket money clearing stones for the local farmers, that was actually my first job. And you could play football until the cows came home – literally. At my first football club, Boulthurst Athletic, we shared our home pitch with the local cows.
It’s part of why I love our country. Not just the beauty – or the football – also the sort of quiet, uncomplaining resilience. The togetherness of the countryside. That is the best of British. [My emphasis]
[…]
And you think he cares about Wales and Scotland?
You can just hear the bit they never say, *from our lands in the South to our holdings in the North, the East, the West, to our oceans and seas and the skies above our heads, wherever an Englishman sets his foot will be forever England, God save the King”
Careful with the blood pressure here, DrJim:
https://youtu.be/EGrES89AKz4
I near popped a vein
‘Our country’ = England.
Scotland / Wales = part of England, hence he doesn’t change to ‘your country’ when talking to the Scots / Welsh.
Question Skier? who are these pollsters called *more in common*?
Is this Jackie Baillies ma and her pals changing their name from *better together* ?
The multitude of new pollsters who’ve now appeared in recent years is testament to the cheap and nasty nature of modern panel polling.
It’s all about profits from those with deep pockets who believe they can ‘nudge’ public opinion…
In my opinion there should be no polling during election campaigns until exit poll on polling day. Polling these days is not about finding out opinions but influencing them.
I noticed that Alba now have a candidate listed on their website for my constituency Mid Dunbartonshire. A guy called Ray James. This is a new constituency after boundary changes but under its previous iteration Snp”s Amy Callaghan only won it by 145 votes. Splitting the Indy vote will really help us. NOT.The Alex Salmond spoiler party strikes again As of yesterday I could not find a Green Party candidate but chances are they will show up soon. Meanwhile the comments section on The National is becoming more vitriolic aka anti Snp by the day.
Scotland, know your enemies Number 39232 b:
Welcome to More in Common UK
320 Angel,
320 City Road,
London,
EC1V 2NZ
A pollster which has the sum total of zero experience of polling the Scotch. They’re polling a people in another country they’ve quite possibly never even been to.
However, it actually shows Labour down and SNP up compared to recent similar English panel polling. 4 point fall compared to Yougov on the 17 May, and half the lead (10 falls to 5 pts). Also Labour down on R&W’s poll before that (-2). It will therefore shift the PoP average in the SNP’s favour, with Labour falling measurably.
Also, if you believe the Tories are about to get 17% in Scotland, you button up the back. Likewise if you believe 8% are about to vote ‘other’ under FPTP, breaking all records by an incredible margin. Nope, both these numbers requires that turnout projection levels are still very low, causing over-inflation nonsense, but I don’t think MiC publish CTV levels.
UK-wide polls have shown the SNP rising too.
But don’t expect swings overnight, movement will be over the full campaign period. Could be quite late. In 2019, they only showed a shift in the final 2 weeks. Some pollsters never saw it, e.g. reliable (ahem) English Panelbase who predicted 38(-7)% SNP.
Interesting fact. Labour’s biggest lead over the SNP ahead of 2011 was 16 points in January. Yes, 16 points of a lead, and all oversampling.
They’re in a worse polling position this time. So far, they’ve managed just 10 points once.
Oh, and on average, Labour have never been in the lead this time. They were on average consistently ahead 2009-end Q2 2011.
Randomly came across this clown Luke Tryl on a Times Radio show segment waxing lyrical about the demise of the SNP and resurgence of Unionism in Scotland in two years time…
Yet another utterly clueless snake oil salesman/grifter…
“Tryl the shrill shill”, Bob?
Swinney topping the poll leadership ratings wise. Nice. Exactly what you want in a poll which is heavy unionist oversampling.
That’s quite something for a poll which Labour are supposed to be 5 points ahead in. Yet Swinney is net 8 points ahead of Starmer and net 9 ahead of Sarwar.
That can only come from unionists going off Labour and warming to Swinney and the SNP.
In 2011, Salmond was net neutral like this, with Gray falling behind, even if Labour were well out in front VI wise.
and a military blog run by people in the know, has said conscription would cost billions more and is totaly unworkable financialy and logistically.
not enough soldiers to train, accomodation, kit.
in their eyes its bonkers
https://thinpinstripedline.blogspot.com/2024/05/national-service-numbers-objective.html
but the annoucements keeps nhs, economy and other things torys dont want discussed off topic for the media today.
expect further non policies to be announced.
and they did not consult NI secretary will the obvious implications for the policy in NI.
Westminster doesn’t even look after veterans and hails charities for helping them – what will they do with these youngsters when they leave National Service – point them in the direction of the local food bank!
another ill thought out policy on the back of a fag packet
It could not be more bonkers to spend money on training people to be in the military who don’t want to be. It makes far more sense to spend the money on getting people who actually want to join up to do so.
And in a cost of living crisis to force people into voluntary work when they can’t even do enough paid hours to put food on the table? It’s nuts.
Maybe Scots started turning against Labour in 2007 because they thought Blairism was too left wing, but they like Starmer’s new conservatism as it’s much more right wing, ergo to their tastes?
This is what you need to believe if you think Scotland is coming home to Labour.
Sunak seems determined to move to Malibu and will say just about anything to ensure the poisoned chalice is in Starmer’s hand when the music stops.
it wasn’t so long ago the Tories were dishing out redundancy notices to serving soldiers as they cut troop numbers. Nothing they do seems to have any cohesion or planning.
Sums it up. This is how you get Swinney ahead consistently in poll that are at face value favouring Labour.
It means Labour voters don’t like what they are seeing in Labour, but do in the SNP leadership.
https://archive.is/bwis0
Big on Englishness, small on left-wing policies: key points from Starmer’s speech
Sir Keir Starmer sought to put “security” at the centre of Labour’s general election pitch as he accused Rishi Sunak of being “desperate” in his first big campaign speech.
The Leader of the Opposition used the speech in Lancing, West Sussex to try and introduce himself to voters, drawing on his upbringing to argue that he can be trusted to defend the public’s priorities.
And he admitted that totemic left-wing policies such as scrapping tuition fees and reversing voter ID laws would not be a priority for an incoming Labour government.
Starmer’s speech was delivered in the most English setting imaginable – a small parish council hall in the seaside town of Lancing, on the Sussex coast, with a war memorial outside next to a sign urging residents to help beautify their neighbourhood.
Told you he knows.
At his speech in Sussex, which has just ended, the Leader of the Opposition insisted: “Whatever the polls say, I know there are countless people who haven’t decided how they’ll vote in this election.”
And he frankly admitted something no party leader ever wants to – that his party just isn’t very popular.
As I said, he knows that he’s not riding some popular wave. He has the doorstepping data and it’s grim.
Starmer says he has changed the Labour Party permanently, which is quite a claim really. However, changed it into what? A clone of the US Democrats? Dr Owen’s SDP? A frog?
wurst
It’s very early days in the fake poll propaganda media blitz on Scotland and actually I think Sunak did us a favour by calling this election now, although my predictions were a mile out which I thought would be November but it does suit the SNP more than Labour as Sunak keeps trotting out his nonsense and the media focus on their priority which is England
The polls will have to begin to become more accurate shortly as proper data is analysed instead of all this makey uppy stuff they’ve been producing because the pollsters weren’t ready with anything factual about Scotland, a place none of them care about so don’t do the work
John Swinney is the perfect man for the job right now, quiet and steady, the closer we get to the more public stuff then he can unleash Kate Forbes upon the opposition, I don’t envy them that wee lass coming at them with her grasp of the facts and their grasp of their own incompetence
Send her out without her breakfast, she’ll eat them
‘Ingerlund 4ever’
Brilliant, wish I’d thought of it.
If Scotland was independent, we’d have polls looking like this over 2024 up to the announcement of the UKGE. Averages of UK wide polls converted to share of the Scottish vote based on population share; something that has served well in the past. I saw 2015 coming here before we had the evidence for it from very rare Scots polls.
48% Findoutnow
45% Peoplepolling
42% IPSOS
36% JL Partners
36% Yougov
35% More in Common
34% Opinium
34% Savanta
34% Survation
33% BMG
33% DeltaPoll
33% Techne
32% Redfield & Winton
29% We think
For good averages, you need a crap load of data. In UK polls, you have this. In Scottish only polls, you don’t. Even if there was no cherry picking going on – and there will be by the media – probability means you can get 3 polls in a row showing a party on 30% when it’s on 36%. The more you do, the more the mean converges.
I have put in bold the regular to semi regular pollster used by the British media in Scotland. Panelbase (now norstat) is so shite nobody even gets it to poll the UK these days, but the Times loves it finding the min SNP 7% below reality (2019) so keeps on using it for Scotland.
The most prolific headliner these days is R&W of London. They just popped out of nowhere to tell us Scots what we think very recently. Polling like once a month. Only We Think gets lower but is wholly England focussed.
For some reason, the media doesn’t want to use the only Scottish pollster that is IPSOS, Edinburgh office.
Why not use People polling or Findoutnow either? The truth is that might yield a more balanced picture.
What we can know is that nobody is cherry picking the above as it’s UK wide. As it’s not fully weighted to Scotland, some will be over egging, some under egging. But as noted, it’s served me well before, and analysis gives close current status.
As for More in Common – they have been factoring in 35% SNP to predict the election outcome in their UK polls on average. That’s quite a bit higher than they just suggested to us Scots. Even if innocent, it suggests that what they just reported is considerably worse for the SNP than what they’ve been regularly getting.
it is being reported that the SNP candidate in East Lothian has stood down. He has been replaced by another SNP Councillor
https://www.eastlothiancourier.com/news/24347305.councillor-lyn-jardine-confirmed-snp-candidate-lothian-east/
It was stated he stood down for medical reasons per article in The National yesterday.
Article was actually in the National
On Monday that is. Never buy a Google Pixel phone this one has a habit of posting when I am not even touching the keyboard.
From the National:
“Benny Higgins endorses Labour as ‘only credible option’ for Scotland“
Another turncoat viper the ScotGov nursed to its bosom.
‘Chairman of the Duke of Buccleuch’s estates company’ says it all.
My understanding is that Benny Higgins does support Scottish independence, but in the case of a UK general election where the choices are Labour or Tory being that government, his preference is Labour as the credible option
Answers to questions depend on how a question is framed
How many times a week do you beat your wife? I’ve never beaten my wife
“Politician denies beating his wife”
OK, I’ll keep an open mind.
Doesn’t seem very bright if he thinks indy can be secured by Scots voting Labour.
We need English folks to do that definitely. That delivers us indy, but Scots should vote SNP.
Righty. A wee note for activists. If you get someone who has a postal vote and intends to vote Labour (or anyone else), just ask them to leave it to the last week if possible.
And if they’re able, they can even take it to their normal polling station, or any in the constituency on the 4th July.
Reason? Remember after the Ref apparently some NOes would have changed their minds and voted YES but they’d posted their votes early.
BBC Scotland interviewer cuts off Irish correspondent talking about recognising Palestine as a state when he mentions that Israel is using starvation as a tactic of subjugation in the same way as the British did to Ireland
Its a British tactic used throughout history
Except at election time when they always promise not to do it again please vote for us
If the British didn’t keep populations poor they’d have nothing to offer them at every election that’s ever taken place, so when elections come round they vow they’ll make the population less poor than before so you’ll be grateful
So buy your British general election Lottery ticket now and choose which British government’s promises you believe and get stuck with that failed ticket for 5 years, or buy an actual Lottery ticket with a 44 million to 1 chance of the jackpot prize of £millions, but you’ll only have to be let down for a week before you get another try
So I’ll vote SNP and buy a £2.50 lottery ticket as backup, that way I get to keep my country a little safer from the British and with a bit of luck win a few quid into the bargain
Choose British, choose lose
And building the famine roads – the pretence, ‘to give the starving a sense of purpose with a useful job’ – the roads to nowhere. And the dykes on the Scottish hillsides, built by women with babes in arms as the menfolk were away doing their bidding with fighting.
Remember the YOP invention too?
Now there’s the push with apprenticeships for all ages and gender – my arse – that silent ‘ism’ of age and gender is prevalent there.
Then the recent plug for conscription.
Can people just get their heids oot o their arses and phones and listen to reason.
Like Swinney, Sturgeon was basically net neutral in Scottish pollsters just ahead of 2019. Slightly negative in English pollsters.
Corbyn was heavily negative like Starmer is now, as Leopold was for Sarwar. The main difference is the unionist vote was more split, so SNP heels were not getting nipped even though they had fallen to 36% at times apparently. That and support for independence was lower.
Also, CTV levels 2017-19 were low, but measurably higher than the past year or so. 66% on average compared to 63% now. This shot up in the final couple of weeks to 74(+8)% just ahead of the vote.
I try to avoid %’s of %’s, but CTV levels have been 15% down recently (63/74*100 = 85) on just ahead of 2019, and that explains the SNP VI. 11% of the electorate that voted last time have been silent, with these SNP. Labour have only gained from Con, immediately post mini-budget, then gradually since.
74% CTV produced a 68% turnout in 2019. Using the same factor, current 63% CTV numbers would deliver a 57% turnout; the lowest in Scotland ever. This would give unionist parties combined the support of just 33% of the total electorate, which is into threshold union collapse territory. Labour would have just 20% of the electorate backing them on less than 1/3 of the vote on a record low turnout. Starmer would have no mandate at all for Scotland. Less than many past Tory governments.
He needs Scots to turn out and vote for him. He admits he / Labour are unpopular and need to win people over. Problem is, if Scots do turn out, history says they’ll not do so for unionists, but for the SNP. And given Yes has never been this high entering a UK election, don’t be surprised if that pattern continues.
Our first poll of the campaign suggests Labour could have lost half it’s lead over the SNP, with Swinney definitely well out in front ratings-wise. Labour would have no mandate for Scotland, with less than 1/3 of the vote, on what would be expected to be a record low turnout. And that’s while sampling issues / low turnout projections are favouring unionists. It’s because Labour 2019 voters pretty highly rate Swinney while they move to independence. That’s not a great start for the union.
So far the polls continue to say that unionists will not win the election, not in any meaningful way. Instead, they may get more deckchairs on the titanic, but that’s it. Polls don’t say the SNP will win a mandate for indy either, but then they have 2026 for that when they are much more likely to get it.
But then we know polls can change markedly in just 2 weeks never mind 5.3!
Here we go. Latest data. Also made a proper correlation for polling certain to vote numbers vs actual turnout. CTV is 10% higher or so than real turnout in final polls. When you factor that in, polls show unionist are even lower than it looks from straight CTV levels, and clearly down on 2019. That ties in much better with Yes up a good few points over the same period.
Average 63% current CTV in Scotland would give you an embarrassing record low 32.3% rUK turnout equivalent, i.e. for unionist parties (Lab/Con/Lib/Ref).
SNP + Green + Alba pump that up to a historic low 55.8% total turnout, which would ruin any arguments about a labour revival never mind mandate. That would be way below the historic 63.5% high of Holyrood 2021.
Where do the unionist go from here? Starmer has a mountain to climb in 5 weeks if he’s to save the union somehow. How can he bring back voters to support the union through a vote for unionist parties for their union parliament?
Mistake in plot. Right number in label, not in plot. Current unionist support as a function of the electorate has, according to polls, fallen below the low of 2015.
Got my first attack on the SNP through the post today. From the Tories, but without any Tory markings / colours.
Not a single policy mentioned, just that I should vote them to ‘stop the SNP’ with accompanying personal attack on Swinney.
This is the hope and bright future the union offers Scotland. Absolutely nothing. Just relentless attacks on the Scots (not British), their country and democracy.
I don’t expect anything from Labour as they care so little about Scotland they won’t bother campaigning in my constituency, even if they could find some English person to parachute in over the border as a candidate.
The arrogance of this. Like re-entry is the UK choice lol.
Go ahead and vote all you like, but that doesn’t get the UK back into the EU. No chance. EU countries will block it simply because they are enjoying a Brexit boom at the UK’s expense, never mind the bridges burnt. I can say as an Irishman you are not wanted back Britain.
Now Scotland and Wales would be welcomed. England would be considered. N. of Ireland has already got a foot in the door. England ‘would be at the back of the queue though’ and Scotland might veto entry given England supressed Scottish democracy.
https://archive.is/qX28D
Starmer shouldn’t shy away from another EU referendum
I must have missed the news that the upcoming General Election is not just for Westminster but also for Holyrood . All I have heard from Unionist Party leaders ( and the local Office boy , Sarwar ) is that we are voting to rid Scotland of the Tory Government AND the SNP Government !
How does that work ? Do I get two votes in the Polling Booth ? Do I put both voting papers in the same ballot box ? Is this ‘The Change ‘ that Labour are promising ?
Confused !!!
Well, according to the LibDems over in Wales, the upcoming GE is for both Westminster and Senedd. Methinks the LabLibCon trio is awfully confused of late.
We have 4 countries full of English people Scottish people Welsh people and Northern Irish people in these islands all under the thumb of these people that call themselves the British, whose sole purpose is not to allow us to have our own identity and nationality and force us to belong to their imaginary country that doesn’t exist on a map
They repeat on shuffle that foreign countries are trying to take away and destroy our “British values” “British standards” “British way of life”
It’s these British people that are doing all of that to us Scots English Welsh and Northern Irish
So far around 65 countries have fought the British and driven them out of their countries for forcing Britishness on them
The British are parasites like ticks or lice, except they’re more dangerous with their ideology of ownership and consumption of what doesn’t belong to them
We can stop the British project by not voting for their political system
SNP in Scotland, Plaid Cymru in Wales, Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland
Sorry England, you folks will have to find a solution of your own to fight this infestation of the British parasite
…maybe Keir Starmer’s English Labour Party ?
Starmer = British= English= St. George’s Flag= Union Flag = Labour Party = Right-wing Elphicke = ….
Interesting that this perspective has gained momentum on forums in England also, only they have not quite joined the dots of ‘British’ by referring to it as Westminster… Time and again I’d read comments cite the Scots, Welsh and Irish as “at least having a meaningful choice”, everything before “choice” had been disappearing leading up to the drookit rat’s announcement, and has now vanished as the media desperately attempts to paper over the cracks of UK’s democratic disconnect collapsing…
Whilst the BBC’s chickens come home to roost in England, their Scotland ‘enterprise’ looked set to beat the record for incontinent pigeon juggling with “I was wrong about family firm not paying living wage – Sarwar” at a day old, only recently supplanted by “NHS Scotland waiting lists hit record high” at 3 hours old, https://archive.ph/amNuv – You only need scroll down to the final paragraph “Scottish Labour health spokesperson Jackie Baillie..” to recognise “impartial journalism” when you see it..
It pays for James’s bespoke suits, but he still thinks we button up the back…
Consistent with wider UK polls, in that English MoC poll of the northern colony, Labour 2019 voters are the most likely to say they may yet change their mind on who they vote for.
That is quite something given the party they were loyal too in its darkest hour since 1935, is apparently going to win a stonking victory. However, they’re not sure they’re going to vote for it.
Likewise consistent with UK polling, the most uncertain voters are SNP 2019.
Statistically, zero 2019 voters say they are ‘not going to vote’. This is physically impossible polls that are predicting historic low turnouts. Therefore, we are back to missing voters, with these all being SNP.
You might find this recent article interesting.
https://www.focaldata.com/blog/why-do-pollsters-disagree-on-the-size-of-labours-lead
The ‘forecasters’ (IPSOS Scotland) have historically a far better record in Scotland than the ‘nowcasters’ (Panelbase, Yougov, Survation, R&W). The British/English media favours the latter, the Scottish (STV, of sorts) media prefers the former for some reason.
Squeezing the DKs will not correct for sampling problems, but it at least removes part of the potential overestimation of Labour.
This doesn’t bode well for Labour. Most leaners are to Con. Just 19% of leaners leaning to Lab.
If you adjust that for population share, the SNP have the most leaners per capita in this ‘MEGA poll’. One of the worst pollsters for SNP too.
Re-weighting forecaster.
The most certain voters are SNP 2019. The least uncertain etc. D-oh.
If you’re a Tory strategist what you want is for SNP voters to come out in force to vote SNP in numbers, because if they don’t then the Tories are fighting an election against a virtual carbon copy of themselves in Labour, and that’s an awkward battle to win
Although the Tories are polar opposite to the SNP, the Tories can’t exist without that opposite to fight with, as will happen again over time as the people in Scotland realise that Starmer’s Labour is Starmer’s new Tory party, so where politically does the actual original Tory party fit in when they’ve been replaced by themselves with a different name
It’s Tony Blair all over again, don’t fight the enemy, become the enemy
Think of Starmers Labour party like an Aldi supermarket Titan bar of chocolate, it looks similar to a Mars bar, it tastes similar to a Mars bar, but it’s not a Mars bar, it’s just a cheap full fat copy full of bad shit even more unhealthy than the original Mars bar, and like all cheap copies you’ll need another one ten minutes later to fill you up
But you won’t have any money left to buy another one and you’ll wish you’d bought the real thing in the first place
See Ross is back to the “we are the Ruth Davidson Party, SNPOut a vote for us will end independence”
I suppose to be fair to him the Tory campaign so far has been an embarrassing bag of poo. What can he say without getting an absolute beamer?
“What can he say without getting an absolute beamer?”
We realise that we’ve been abysmal so we’re going to:
1 Pay all the money we’ve syphoned to our family and friends back. Or at least make them all pay tax on it. Penalty in either case is automatic jail time (with murder tents outside the family home, of course)
2 Introduce PR within the first month of parliament.
3 Call an immediate GE as soon as PR is law.
4 Actually do all the above
It might work. And, as me old mum used to say “We can live in hope if we die in despair”
Quite something that Labour’s favour pollster – who are at odds with everyone on Starmer – has him negative too.
Last other poll from Yougov had this:
How well or badly do you think Keir Starmer is doing as Leader of the Labour Party?
32% Well
53% Badly
Labour dropping sharply in their VI too. And this data is over egging the pudding for Labour I’d suggest as Yougov get had them dropping to low 40’s by last December.
As yourself, if Labour are doing poorly in Wales, with Starmer getting low ratings, what do you think the reality is here?
Polls look bad personally for Starmer in northern colony, really pretty naff. But that is quite likely because they are flattering him right now due to pre-2015 type oversampling.
I can’t see this on Nation.Cymru (yet).
May S_S should post it there, too …
Only a 1.7% increase in CTV levels so far UK-wide. 53.3 to 55.0. That’s not statistically significant, but might be the first signs of things happening in earnest.
No clear signs of any movement VI-wise outside of normal variance.
The Reform party want to send refugees to the Western Isles because “nobody lives there” says Lee Anderson
The folk who do live in the Western Isles will be unsurprised to hear the British deciding their future for them
Labour British Tory British Lib Dem British now Reform British, see what they all have in common? they’re British
I heard an interesting food for thought comment today about the consequences of a united Ireland
The last thing Scotland needs is a united Ireland because thousands of these British head case Bastirts will flood into Scotland wae their bands and guns and there’ll be nothing we can dae aboot it because they’re protected by the British security services and the Polis
I really hope that’s just a random misplaced comment from an ex soldier
If any move, it will be to England. They nationally identify as British, not Irish nor Scottish, much as they might sound very like they’re the former, while claiming to be ulster latter in culture.
[…] Source […]
Starmer at risk of losing the black vote in England amid accusations of racism and trying to force her out of Parliament following being caught out in a “brazen lie” about the Diane Abbot probe
He got rid of Corbyn, Raynor will be dumped first chance he gets, the wrong class of people for Labour now
Starmer is “movin on up” as “things can only get better” he hopes
So, here is why I said that first ‘Poll of the Scotch’ by the English of the GE campaign doesn’t look great for Labour.
In fact all recent polling doesn’t look good for them. On top of Starmer and Sarwar continuing to tank in rantings, being consistently well behind Swinney, Labour have been slipping over the course of 2024. Down from 35% to 32% by the time the BHA ended for Westminster VI, and on turnout projections that look to be the worst ever for the union.
What’s even worse for Labour, is that they were going down as CTV levels went down too. Given that’s what has been working in their favour for the past year, if correct, it’s really grim for them. It is consistent with their own voters going off them so much so that low turnout isn’t boosting them like it was before. That and the Lab to Yes movement polls show is very much happening.
Then the turmoil of the BHA end hit did seem to give them some sort of mini-boost at the expense of the SNP. Not a surprise; the electorate normally knee-jerks in such cases, if simply because they feel that’s expected of them. Swinney stands up and the bounce starts to taper off quickly.
Then the GE is announced, and if those numbers are anything close to reality, the bounce is unravelling rapidly, with CTV numbers still at record lows as earlier discussed.
So aye, quite likely a blip that, and Labour are going to lose the election with 7/10 rejecting them on a crushingly low turnout, unless something changes very quickly. And that’s the good news for them. If I was them, I’d be praying those CTV numbers do not rise.
Scotland’s young people do not want to be conscripted into anything British whether military or helpers for free to any service industry they don’t choose
Their answer is a resounding *Naw not a fuc*ing chance mate, who do I vote for to avoid any of that then*?
Easy answer if you live in Scotland Wales or Northern Ireland
Nuts.
Spot the right-wing Tory ? OK , you guessed it – they all are !
To paraphrase Orwell…
The creatures outside looked from Tory to Labour, and from Labour to Reform, and from Reform to Tory again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
And if you watch the BBC, you’d be forgiven for thinking these were your only choices.
Symbolism can be very powerful, which is why they are using it desperately. It’s all they’ve got. But this imagery would even be a turnoff to Scots who feel a bit British, never mind those that don’t at all.
To me this feels very like the last British GE. It would naturally be the one plastered in the union flag, with nothing on offer to the Scots / Welsh / Northern Irish but that, and whether they like it or not.
Imagery to brainwash…🤯
Yes, but it’s not like it will work.
If your flag is not the union jack, it’s not the union jack, end of.
Someone shoving one in your face will just have you rejecting it even more
Maybe nowadays, but some of the younger generations can still be susceptible to brainwashing I’m afraid.
Unprompted, on arriving home from School, my 16 year old daughter told me in no uncertain terms that there’s ‘no f**king way she nor any of her classmates are doing British national service’.
They’ve all been discussing it. These kids are Scots. They have no idea what British is. All they know is that its taken away their European citizenship and they hate Britain for that. It’s why they’re 75% Scottish (not British). They’d actually be open to a Scottish national service of some form, but not a British one forced on them by England.
They’ll all be voting in 2026, as will anyone 14 or older. And they won’t be voting unionist, that’s for sure.
Nor Alba either for that matter, as kids are very LGBT inclusive these days because they have friends that openly are this, rather than hiding it like they used to past conservative times.
Old poll out from Survation. Fieldwork would have been mostly on the 23rd/24th, same as MiC. Added in:
So far, change on pre-election final polls are Labour down, and possibly sharply. This seems to be actually movement back to Tory. SNP up a little as CTV has risen very marginally as you can see above. Turnout projection is 57.1%.
I had noticed movement from Tory to Labour of late as unionists scrabble for deckchairs on the titanic. This may be reversing now as they try to work out what everyone else is voting using tactical wheels etc.
It’s hard if you are a unionist tactical voter. If you vote Labour while your fellow unionists go Tory, you could ‘let the SNP in by the back door’. If you go Tory and they go Labour, the same applies.
Tory vote has collapsed though apparently, so best go Labour. But then in SNP-Tory marginals? And polls now show Labour to Tory movement! Oh dear.
Oh, and Survation took 4 days to get enough responses. A panel poll should take 2 days. They were struggling to get SNP and Tory 2019 respondents. Labour heavily oversampled; needed a 15% down-weighting. Which makes the above decline worse for them.
Och lol. Survation’s unweighted sample was 46% SNP 2019, exactly what you get when you target panel members based on what they voted in 2019. Except 21.5% Labour 2019 isn’t right. That’s oversampling.
What’s worse, is that these members say they voted 55% Yes in 2014, this causes big yes and SNP down-weighting. What it should be causing is someone to wave a huge red flag over sampling. It cannot possibly be representative when you have such a glaring problem. That’s a massive 10% difference from reality. A complete reversal. That says your more unionist party leaning sample is leaving heavily yes and you are desperately trying to weight that out as you are English and don’t understand Scotland.
SNP barred from TV debate
Jeremy Corbyn barred from Labour
Diane Abbot barred from standing for Labour
Scotland barred from asking and answering a question
Scotland barred from recycling
Everybody barred that doesn’t fit in with England’s version of DIMocracy dimockery dumbfuc*ery
Papers please no talking and keep your head bowed
Barring the SNP means more votes for them in the short and/or longer terms. It’s what we want.
In the latest UK Yougov.
And do you think the debates should just be between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, or should leaders of other parties be included?
UK
17% Should just be between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer
81% Should include other party leaders
Scotland
13% Should just be between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer
85% Should include other party leaders
As I said, this helps the SNP, hurts the unionists.
Yougov UK CTV dropped back a bit. Current turnout prediction = still ~50% UK-wide.
Sky news says SNP on 3% of the British vote yet says they will lose more than 50% of their Scottish seats to Labour
Given that the SNP only have Scottish seats and I’m no maths genius, but I’m thinking those numbers don’t seem like they work when you divide the eligible to vote population down
Labour are on 21.5% of the vote here in terms of the total electorate. It’s just not possible to get any sort of mandate with that no matter how many seats they might win because nobody wants these. The only way to save the union is to get the % of the electorate backing unionists back up to near 50%. Like the good old pre-1997 days. At the moment, it’s 32(-4)% compared to 2019.
Scottish poll changes so far (campaign vs final non campaign, all English panel type). Main movement is deckchairs on the titanic:
+5 Con
+2 SNP
-4 Lab
-1 CTV
SNP may be up, which would be good since CTV actually edged down.
Caveat is that we have very few polls to work with. However, UK-wide SNP numbers are on the up too in earnest it appears. Touch wood.
The Lab-Con switching thing is interesting, as we have tactical attempts to save the union here that are not going to occur in England. This could split the unionist vote more than mid term numbers has suggested. With the Tories collapsing, it’s a seriously hard call if you are unionist tactical voter. Do you opt for Labour who are supposedly on the up or Tory who might still be strong locally or might have collapsed too? Decisions, decisions.
UK Yougov, Scotland subsample:
On a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means you would never consider voting for them, and 10 means you would definitely consider voting for them, how likely are you to consider voting for the following parties at the next election?
% saying 10 = Definitely consider
10% Lab
10% Con
4% Lib
% saying 0 = Definitely never consider
24% Lab
27% Lib
57% Con
Shows real level of popularity, also the possible Lab-Con split tactically. No SNP data as it’s a UK poll.
Sunak V Starmer in TV debate ?
British (sic ) Democracy in action ! Which of these guys do you believe will be best for Engl…The UK ?
Is ‘Neither’ an option?
The Scottish Tory campaign is a joke.
After 14 years and numerous economic disasters, back stabbing and PMs chased from office by their own backbenchers the Tory campaign here is “Matheson got stung for roaming charges…Behead him!…Rishi who?”
There’s a certain amount of irony in this btl comment in the Herald:
“The bottom line on Sturgeon’s 8 years as First Minister in that she achieved nothing. Zero, zilch, zip, nada!! There’s no Sturgeon Legacy. All Scotland has to show for her tenure is 8 years of neglect and decay. Easily, and by far, the worst ever First Minister.“
says someone who is still alive after Coronavirus, and even according the dreaded BBC via ONS, if living in Scotland, was more likely to be so than in England.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67981188
I didn’t think DRoss knew big words like ”zilch, zip nada…”
DRoss has a degree in milk, seriously! he does,
Who does a degree in milk? and is DRoss not one of the people his own PM wants to stop going to university?
Crazy the variation in UK polls. 12 point lead or 27 pt? This is the problem when you have such low CTV numbers, it introduces huge errors / uncertainty.
Ignore Wikipedia’s poll average graph. It’s nonsense. Someone has just stick a wobbly curve through all the data.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summaries
This does not update as often, but is a far better averaging method.
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/
Reality is that nothing has measurably changed UK-wide so far. CTV remains desperately low. SNP maybe ~2-3% up in Scotland with Labour losing to Tory and SNP.
Labour all over the shop on the Diane Abbot ”story” . They can’t seem to agree on which line Starmer wants them to plough –
” Yes , she is allowed to stand – if she kisses the feet of the Messiah alias Sir Kid Starver .”
”No, she has too many bad Labour ideas and must be cast out into the outer darkness ”.
If only she was more like that nice Conserv … Labour MP , Natalie Elphicke .
Apparently the Labour NEC came to it’s decision some weeks ago but haven’t yet delivered their verdict to Starmer because he hasn’t told them which verdict he wants delivered to him until it’s just in time to be too late for her to stand
Reporting Scotland tonight led with the Matheson story but not once, not once did the reporters or presenter mention he had paid the £11,000 back!!!!
They are beyond the pale.
Ch4 with the smirking Kathryn Sampson was just as bad
Yes she was but I thought Mr Swinney was well up to dealing with her and at least with Ch4 the new railway got a mention although I don’t think Ch4 were aware that they should not report that however peripheral to their main report.
The leaders of the parties in Scotland will be debating on STV this Monday with Colin Mackay questioning each leader before they then get to cross examine each other. I think I might find this mildly amusing as I would expect Swinney to wipe the floor with all of them.
In other news, Starmer appears to be frantically back tracking once again, this time over the suspension of Diane Abbott after trade unions demanded she be allowed to stand for Labour. She is not barred from standing he says and that no decision has yet been made.
The so called leaders of the opposition parties are just branch managers for their London bosses, so if I were John Swinney I wouldn’t take part in this deputy leaders debate, and I’d send in Kate Forbes to strike terror into them
Three misogynist big heads versus the intelligent woman they daren’t try to bully or they come off looking like what they are after she swipes the legs from under them
John Swinney will be constantly interrupted by Colin MacKay and his Unionist colleagues. Ross will shout abuse and be allowed to do so whenever he likes. You don’t need to watch it, you already know the script. Stage managed propaganda. John Swinney will win the debate but the media will paint it as a victory for Sarwar…
As always totally agree with you Paul. Two points though –
1) there is another newspaper supporting Scottish Independence since 1926, The Scots Independent. I know its only monthly in printed version but the more support it gets the better. http://scotsindependent.scot
2( The SNP really needs to concentrate on going full tilt for independence. So much of Scotland’s ability to run a social democratic country requires that, without it we will always be overridden by Westminster when it suits them. I was really disappointed that that was not number one on John Swinney’s list of targets.
Best regards Chris
>
The National has gone the same way as the AUOB marches, infested by vile Alba thugs insulting everybody in sight or every article about the SNP and every MSP or MP in the party
There are about a dozen Alba trolls who comment on every article in the same abusive manner, and they do it ever single day
I don’t buy it and I don’t online subscribe to it anymore, just like I don’t go to AUOB marches like thousands of other independence supporters anymore
The Alba trolling is worse than the British nationalists
I wonder if many of them are even are indy supporters. However, they do important work keeping the indy vote from splitting by making sure people don’t vote Alba.
“Alba thugs insulting everybody in sight or every article about the SNP and every MSP or MP in the party” “The Alba trolling is worse than the British nationalists”
I’ve cancelled the subscription to the Nat on the grounds that it isn’t only ‘Alba thugs’ doing the trolling. There seems to be an increasing level of hostile language and negativity in many of the articles too. As for the headlines…
This absolutely does not including Paul, to be clear. Criticism is one thing, and where it’s constructive and necessary it should happen. There’s no place for sycophancy either IMNSHO. Downright BBC-style weaselling is something completely different.
Being charitable, I suppose it could be trying to inject drama into their ‘work’ to make the articles more interesting. For me accurate, well-researched information will do that. Although it can be interesting spotting all the, shall we say, ‘word choices’ and calculating their intended effect. I’m not paying for it though.
Maybe all articles should have a short para at the bottom saying “the writer has strong affiliations to [name of party]/Better Together/BiS/Scottish Office/[other]/None of the above. They/their families/etc also own/have shares in… (where applicable).
Also a disclaimer saying either “the views expressed in this article are the writer’s own (even the journalists) and not necessarily those of The Nat” or “this article has been fact checked for accuracy before publication. Any inaccuracies are, therefore, the responsibility of the paper.”
I know. It won’t happen.
I renewed my subscription very reluctantly for as a short a period as possible after Humza ended the BTA and every thing went a bit pear shaped. Finding a paper copy was too much of being involved in a mystery tour.I think the headlines are more of a problem than most articles because they often bear not much relevance to content of the article. Maybe their headline write used to write for the Daily Star or something. I think the paper is far too often promoting click bait than actual factual journalism these days. They allow the Alba and Unionist bullies free reign on the comment section and anyone considering voting Snp/ Supporting Indy for the first time would be horrified by the vitriol in these comments sometimes. In the long run they are losing people who have been long term subscribers that does not bode well for the future of the newspaper of the job of journalists.
Interestingly enough, if you mix up Sunak and Starmer which isn’t hard – they make the same sounds most of the time – you get runt arse mask.
I looked up 10 Downing Street London and got easy fans blast, so there you go – neither Starmer not Sunak are fit to be Prime Minister of our illustriarse Runtied Maskdom.
QED
Can you imagine a Labour Party without Diane Abbott as an MP?
I can imagine one without Starmer – he should resign immediately.
I think that now the whip’s been restored, she should resign and stand as an Independent. Or maybe even ‘cross the floor’ (or would that be move along the floor?) and stand in their constituencies as SNP! 🙂
So should Russell-Moyle, the newly-designated sacrificial goat.
That’d set a couple of cats among the feral pigeons.
No, he should absolutely stay, and Scotland should be excluded from English Labour like Abbot is being.
Scots exclusion from UK governance and UK election TV debates is a good thing.
After all, it is Scotland’s exclusion from the UK that is our goal. The more the brits exclude Scots, including those who still wish to be part of the union, the better.
They do our campaigning for us, and we should thank them for it.
The media’s total focus on right erse cheek vs other right erse cheek vs right erse hole… the butcher’s apron fest… It’s all good. It says to Scots ‘These are not your elections – yours are Scottish elections. The latter are for your own country, which Britain is not‘.
Euro footie St. George’s cross fest is coming next. Starmer will be wrapped in one, as will Starmer. They’ll both be singing ‘Football’s coming home’ etc. Meanwhile, Scots will be wrapped in the saltire and going home to Europe.
If 2019 is anything to go by, don’t expect anything much to necessarily happen polling until the final couple of weeks. It was the 25th November 2019 before the first couple of polls came in showing the SNP could get 44%, beginning with IPSOS. The average of final polls 2019 was 42%, with English panel pollster Panelbase predicting 38% on 6th December, like nothing was happening at all, and the SNP were still at mid-term lows of down to 36%.
SNP voters need to get out and vote.
In contrast, in Scotland and across the UK, Labour voters don’t need to bother given the huge size of their polling lead. The Labour victory is so certain there’s just no real need for people to vote Labour. That is the message getting out with current polling. And with Labour so unexciting, then especially why bother?
It was not too dissimilar for the SNP ahead of 2017. Their lead was just so commanding that lots of SNP not bothering to turn out would make no real difference right? 15 point lead and holding just about every seat in Scotland. And after all, the election was all about England (Brexit) and no change could be affected. So the turnout fell sharply and the rest is history.
It’s one aspect I had not really considered, i.e. that Labour might not even get that 22% of the electorate out, not if the polls say they’re going to win big anyway.
The fact that I said Starmer twice when I mean Sunak in one case is telling. No need to change it mods as they amount to the same thing.
English voters are just finding out what we Scots have known about since 2014.The Better Together party which pretends to be two separate political parties giving the electorate choices but in reality has the same political agenda.
The eradication of public services in pursuit of free market ideology and associated diminution of human rights.
The consequences of being up front on their plans for the NHS would be political oblivion so they go about dismantling it as a public service by stealthily privatising it bit by bit.
The only way to maintain quality public services is through increased public funding which in turn requires increased taxation.
Never going to happen under Better Together.
“….which in turn requires increased taxation” or bringing the advantages for the rich back into line with everybody else… Richard Murphy did a good analysis on this using existing tax rules etc….
QT has Farage and Piers Morgan tonight. Plus Wes Streeting and Damien Hinds as the two Tories.
And the Rt Rev’d Rose Hudson-Wilkin as the only honest one on the stage….
…don’t forget Fiona Bruce , the main Tory cheerleader !
It’s interesting, but the turnouts for Holyrood are actually much larger in Scotland when you take into account the fact that Scotland is 2 countries in 1.
Holyrood is not specifically Scotland’s parliament, but rather the Scottish Parliament. You can’t be a parliament of a land, only a people, in this case the Scots. Now of course British (first and foremost) people can vote in Holyrood elections, but to them, it’s not their parliament. Their parliament, the parliament of their British nation, is Westminster.
74.3% wanted Holyrood in 1997. The remainder did not, and it was first and foremost these that didn’t bother voting in Scottish elections because, well, they simply aren’t Scottish. This is what gave rise to higher total turnouts for UK elections over Scottish ones; Scots were voting in Scottish elections and British ones, but British folks tended to only vote in the latter.
If you take the 74.3% Yes value as ‘Scots’ vs the remainder brits, which agrees very closely with census national identity data, then your Scottish turnouts need to be compared to the former population equivalent, not the total population, i.e. how are Scots in Scotland turning out for Holyrood. Well, like so:
1999 – 78.6%
2003 – 66.9%
2007 – 72.6%
2011 – 68.0%
2016 – 75.1%
2021 – 85.5%
Then you see how incredibly popular the Scottish Parliament is with Scottish people, unionist and nationalist alike. That is what our turnouts should look more like if we were an independent nation. It’s much more in line with healthy European democracies where people have lots of choice under PR.
Upon independence, British voters in Scotland will start turning out for Scottish elections as these would control every aspect of life in Scotland. Right now they don’t need to bother as Westminster ultimately is in control, so they can just vote for that, which is their parliament. Hell, Westminster is now overruling Holyrood when it wants freely, so for Brits, why bother at all with Scottish elections.
Anyway, when you understand it that way, the picture is really something. The Scottish parliament is as popular with self-identified Scots as the British parliament used to be with UK folks before the advent of centre-right Blairism destroyed choice and set the UK on its final course for breakup, with us entering the final stage of this.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1050929/voter-turnout-in-the-uk/
An 85.5% turnout by the Scots for their parliament is about to be followed by a historic low turnout for the union one if polls hold true. And even if the turnout rises, it’s most likely to be those opposed to the UK parliament ruling Scotland turning out to do so.
In recent months Starmer has had the Union Flag factories working overtime to meet his demands for the new Labour replacement for The Red Flag .
Now it appears that he has urged the parachute makers to up their output as he desperately needs their product to get his own people into many former ( they don’t know it yet ! ) Left -wing Labour MPs seats .
Dianne Abbot and Jeremy Corbyn represent the kind of Labour with the best chance of tempting Scots home to it.
Scottish unionist Labour is centre-left. British nationalist Labour in Scotland is right-wing. A vicious battle between these will follow a Starmer victory.
“A vicious battle between these will follow a Starmer victory.” – I suggest a split in the UK Labour Party forming an entirely new centre left party will be first, adding to Sarwar’s woes if indeed he survives the embarrassment in Scotland of Labour’s much vaunted fireworks turning out to be a damp squib.
The anger among trad Labour voters and supporters over their party being hijacked again is off the scale in England – Their focus for now is putting Tory power back in it’s box, but be in no doubt that once done the Starmer regime is in the firing line.
Stock up on popcorn, it’s going to get bumpy…
If CTV levels were suggesting a turnout of over 60% UK-wide, I’d say no to this. But given they show a dire 50% turnout, and Labour only managed 34% in the locals, you can’t help but wonder.
https://archive.is/daIKs
Are the polls overstating Labour’s lead?
The key question is whether voters will behave differently at the general election to the recent local elections.
What if there are ‘shy Tories’ out there? Or ‘quiet SNP’ like polls suggest could be the case as per past Scottish elections?
On the 11th March 1997 Labour were on 53% average! The polls never saw that 10% fall coming.
In 2015 it was a dead heat:
Yet 33 vs 33 became 37 Con to 30 Lab. Again, the polls never saw that 7% lead.
In 2019 in Scotland, the English panel polls said the SNP lead was 14 pts at the end, the reality was 19. IPSOS Scotland said 18. That was caused by silent SNP. Even IPSOS slightly underestimated due to this.
Silent voters do exist and can make up a considerable proportion of voters. It’s impossible to know what they will do because they are silent, also how many their might be for the same reason.
They tend to belong to parties currently seen as in some degree of strife. It is human nature to not admit in public you support a cause that the media is insisting is a disaster / divided / incompetent / collapsing etc.
But when your cause is doing well, then you are happy to tell people you back it, like Labour voters are doing right now.
So how much of those dire turnout projection numbers are due to silent voters? Who knows, could be none, could be 10%, turning polls on their heads.
It’s so ironic that, to legitimise the result, Starmer needs there to be voters such as silent ones to come out so the turnout is reasonably high and the media can’t relentlessly tell him how he ‘only won because voters stayed at home in record numbers’. Yet if they turn out, it won’t be for him most likely.
Still no obvious pick up in potential turn-out UK-wide. 50% or so based on certain to vote numbers in final 2019 polls and the same now.
Stuff I was whatsapped today by friends and colleagues.
Erm … isn’t the didgeridoo reference more appropriate to Rolf Harris?
Ignore the previous … I get it now.
I’m brain dead after a long day. < Sigh >
🙂
Another right-wing rat jumps from a sinking ship to what they perceive as a passing right wing gravy train.
https://archive.is/jwcsv
Conservative Mark Logan defects to Labour – saying ‘we need a new government’
Sir Keir Starmer is celebrating the third defection by a Tory to Labour in just over a month.
Completely O/T but
Donald Trump’s been found guilty on all 34 felony charges.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/live/trump-verdict-live-updates-trump-found-guilty-of-falsifying-business-records-becoming-the-first-us-president-to-be-convicted-of-criminal-charges-205128485.html
EXTRA! EXTRA! Read all about it!
It wisnae me ! A big boy , Joe Biden , did it and ran away !
He’s guaranteed to win now.
So cynical, so young…
😀
Actually, old and realpolitik 🤓
Massive increase in DT donations
Kate Forbes interviewed on Sky news this AM, except half the conversation was drowned out in a split picture with the happy laughter of a Kier Starmer meeting and greeting campaign
This insulting behaviour would never happen when interviewing *important* British politicians and demonstrates ultra clearly the lengths the British broadcasters go to in order to dismiss Scotland’s representatives
I have absolutely no doubt how sincerely Sky news will apologise for this *error* if someone even bothers to complain about it
When it comes to all things Scottish, British broadcasters make a great many *errors* that they apologise for profusely, I’m sure they’ll rectify the situation in the middle of the night sometime when nobody’s watching so that everything is done very very fairly
It’s not just Scotland who Starver treats with contempt and appoints his own placemen from the Home Counties and London in ‘safe’ seats.
Row as Labour imposes general election candidate with no Welsh connection (nation.cymru)
A row has erupted after the chief executive of a London-based think tank was made the general election candidate for a safe Labour seat in Wales.
Torsten Bell runs the Resolution Foundation, which researches issues relating to poverty. A panel appointed by Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) has decided that he will be the party’s candidate in Swansea West on July 4.
[…]
____________
Are you Plaid Cymru/SNP yet?
Still no obvious change in turnout numbers UK-wide, nor Lab/Con etc. Based on 2017 and 2019, turnout is 0.91 x average poll certain to vote.
This gives a 50% TO continuing to be predicted, ergo Labour gets no democratic mandate to rule England never mind Scotland. They got the backing of 22% of the total electorate in 2019 and remain on, you guessed it, 22% now.
It just struck me that we might be about to watch England break the union for us. After all, it’s not just us Scots about to get a hated Labour government we didn’t want nor vote for, but the English too.
I can’t see how the union could survive the outcome that polls currently predict. The constitutional crisis would not be confined to the northern colony where a lid can be put on it, but it would be UK-wide. Throw in Sinn Fein winning in the North of Ireland then promptly withdrawing it from Westminster rule and… holy shit.
And we’d know the turnout before the results, so the news would already be breaking of the ‘worst turnout in history…. how voters have totally rejected Westminster rule… labour got the same number of votes as it did in its worst defeat since 1935‘ etc, robbing Labour of any mandate before the counting had really got underway.
In every interview, Starmer and co would be asked how on earth they think they have a mandate when they got the same number of votes as 2019. The Tory papers would hammer him relentlessly for this. ‘British democracy collapses‘.
Then in the midst of this total collapse in the UK system, we head to Holyrood 2026 where a record 86% of Scots (self-identifying) just turned out for their parliament.
Must admit it’s not an end to the UK that I’d envisaged. It’s always been us trying to break free. Instead, polls say that it’s all going to fall apart around us unless things change radically in the next 5 weeks, with one of the two cheeks of the same erse suddenly becoming super popular, including in Scotland.
Ok, turnout maybe climbed 1% with the announcement, but then it’s levelled out at 51.4%. It’s a little tricky to monitor as some pollsters didn’t put in CTV values and now they suddenly are. This creates changes that may not have happened. Also, some pollsters didn’t exist last time, so I can’t know if they over or under predicted turnout last time. Either way, it’s looking desperately low as things stand. And if the papers keep insisting Labour are set for a landslide, it could be even lower as reluctant Labour voters don’t even bother as they believe the result is a foregone conclusion anyway.
Where are the British going to live when they learn the English Scottish Welsh and Irish don’t want them?
The British Tory party in Scotland will, overnight, become Scottish with independence. Watch and see.
Both Lab and Con as parties were opposed to Brexit, now they’ve both embraced it in the search for power. They’ll do the same with Scottish indy here in Scotland. They have no principles, so it’s easy for them to switch like this.
Labour oversampling is happening in Scotland. No doubt about it. Latest numbers.
Scottish polls
Unweighted bases 2019 vote
Year %Lab %SNP
2024 22 45
2023 21 46
2022 20 47
Election
2019 19 45
Labour were being oversampled as early as 2022, but then so were the SNP. The latter should be the case as they won 2019/21 and represent the biggest party. However, SNP voters have increasingly stopped answering pollsters, while Labour voters have been ever more enthusiastically doing so. It doesn’t look like a lot, but it is very statistically significant.
These are not random samples, which makes the changes very significant. The pollsters are sending requests to people they know voted a certain way. People who have signed up to be regularly asked how they plan to vote. Ergo, it should not be hard to reach them. But it has been for SNP voters of late. Even the most responsive SNP 2019 voters have disengaged from the pollsters since the start of 2023.
These make up a whopping 10% or more of those that regularly vote. It’s a huge hole in the polls, and the sole reason the SNP appear to be down.
It why Survation took 4 days to get 1000 to answer them in their latest poll. They will be having to send out a much larger number of requests to get the same SNP2019 quota. Which means we cannot compare polls now to those that have come before. They’re not sampling the same people. This much is absolutely true. You can even see it in the iref1 data. These people say they voted Yes by 55% in 2014, but 46% SNP in 2019. That’s just not possible unless your sample is not representative at all. It causes you to heavily down weight Yes support when you should be asking what’s wrong with your sampling that you need to do that. You are supposed be finding more No’s than Yessers. How do you get such high Yes with unionist oversampling? Well, because they are moving to Yes.
And 2014 weighting is 10 years old now. It’s total nonsense that it’s still being used. Caused the pollsters to considerably underestimate SNP in 2019, and that was 5 years ago!
And naturally there is a strong correlation between labour oversampling and increased apparent Labour VI. Shall plot in due course.
Old poll from Savanta out. End data was 28th May, so it will be 5 days old at least since the main feildwork was done.
SNP up 4% points so far on that final poll from YouGov before the announcement. 29, 30, 32, 33%.
Lab down 3% on average.
17% Tory means don’t take the absolute numbers seriously, but keep an eye on trends.
So far if anything is happening at all, it’s Labour down, SNP up. Lab losing to Con. SNP up would come from CTV edging up.
The SNP have not lost any voters to Lab, so there are none to get back. If Lab go down it’s because they are losing to Con and turnout is rising towards SNP.
No tables for Savanta to check yet.
This looks really bad for another lying Tory.
Ha ha – guilty as charged – that is the same Luke Graham whose election address was an office in an industrial estate in Reading? but Liz Smith let him use her address in Perthshire for the purposes of getting elected. Looks like he’ll not have much success.
People in general everywhere in the world tend to like people who like them, this guy’s problem is it’s him and people like him who are the ones guilty of not liking or respecting others
In short, if you’re not one of them you’re bad
Luke Graham has been around for quite a long time spouting the same stuff
Didn’t know the SNP were anti-us. Since when have they – and they include me as a Member – been anti-Taff?
Methinks, that Unlucky Luke is more anti-Celt than we (collectively) are anti-English? But hey, when did projectionism actually stop a Tory from lying?
Calling Scots anti-English racists is how you get them to vote for you / support the union. I guess, somehow?
It should not come as shock to find that if you oversample Labour voters and leaners at the expense of these for SNP, you calculate a higher VI for Labour.
No doubt about it, Labour oversampled so ‘up’ in Scotland / biting the heels of the SNP even though no SNP have moved to them at all. 2024 polls are all up around the 22% UW2019 area.
But that’s what happens when instead of SNP->SNP responding to your poll, these go quiet and you get lots of Lab-Lab. That and the few SNP who have moved to Lab, but not enough Lab who have moved to SNP as they’re quiet too.
An SNP->Lab voter is not the same as an SNP->SNP one even if they are both SNP 2019. If you don’t have the correct number of both, you will seem to have movement to Lab even though no real voters have actually moved NET, which is what you see in % of total electorate data.
So folks, stop thinking SNP have moved to Labour. It just hasn’t happened.
However, I don’t know what the silent SNP will do. Maybe they will stay silent on voting day too. But even if they do, Labour will still lose the election on at best 1/3 of the vote on a crushingly low turnout. Starmer will have zero mandate for Scotland and likely not for England either.
This is going to be a weird general election with all three British Tory parties telling the same story and promising the same things as each other while frantically trying to find different words to use to sell the same lies to the public
Here in Scotland we have the Greens agreeing with the SNP on practically everything but in order to separate themselves from the SNP the Greens complaint is the SNP are not doing those things quickly enough
Then we have Alba, whose complaint is totally based in their obsessional hatred of Nicola Sturgeon no matter who the current leader of the SNP happens to be, so in a way Alba have become the Nigel Farage party in Scotland, not out to win anything for themselves because they know they have no chance of that, so they solely exist to disrupt and destroy the process of everything else, and that’s the ethos of Farage, destroy what exists to replace it with, well nothing, because Alba like Farage know they are not popular so will never be elected to anything
The SNP message is a simple one “without us saying NO to Westminster you’re agreeing with whatever Westminster decides to take from, and do to Scotland”
That message suits me just fine because it has been proven time after time to be correct
As it always has been throughout history England will decide who they are going to vote for, and that will determine who runs the UK, Scots must not be kidded by any other political party that Scotland has very much of anything to do with that process, because if we really did have an influence on who was the UK government you can bet your boots Westminster would change the rules to make damn sure we didn’t
Y’know like the way we are *allowed* by Westminster to have less MPs than we had before, because heaven forfend that Scotland would be *allowed* to have any influence over “The British”
There are no Scottish Welsh English or Irish people, there are only “The British” that live in *the country of Britishland* which try as I have, still can’t find on any map
Is British not a minority now? must be, surely?
Seen the UK Yougov tables. 51% turnout still projected for the UK, so Labour lose as they get no viable democratic mandate.
While I absolutely agree that turnout will be low (our first street stall didn’t find much antipathy towards the SNP it did find a lot of people were resigned, apathetic and indifferent) but I don’t think Starmer will care. If Labour have 500 seats on a 45% turnout they will, without a trace of a blush, claim the bigliest mandate in the history of the universe.
The sad fact is that the ‘did not votes’ are quickly forgotten so for those who are pro independence don’t be indifferent be in the polling place voting SNP.
It doesn’t matter what Starmer thinks. In fact it’s really important he doesn’t give a shit and is seen to plough on with ruling even though he lacks any sort of mandate.
He is going to be the most unpopular leader of the opposition ever to take office. Then the public will see he’s taking office even though the they didn’t want him too, just less so than Sunak.
All the time the Tory media will relentlessly remind him and the public that he only got into office because people stayed at home. That his victory was entirely due to the lowest turnout in history, not because voters backed him. The number of votes he got will be compared with 2019 – ‘Labour’s worst defeat since 1935’ – relentlessly.
Him ignoring all this and forcing himself on Scots is exactly what we want ahead of the far more important Holyrood 2026.
That’s when the turnout will be a record new high, surpassing 2021 as Scots totally abandon Westminster.
Scots can reject Westminster rule by either staying at home or voting SNP. Either works. I’d prefer the latter, but the former does the same fundamental damage deep down.
Our first street stall didn’t find much antipathy towards the SNP it did find a lot of people were resigned, apathetic and indifferent
No, you won’t. They’ve not done anything wrong. They’ve not forced horrible right wing policies on people. They’ve not stripped Scots of the right to vote. They don’t back Brexit. They’ve not ruined the UK economy. They’ve not caused a cost of living crisis. They’ve not backed genocide in Gaza etc.
However, the media are insisting indy / the SNP are busted flushes and the establishment is desperately trying to jail as many SNP as it can. The SNP have had a tough time with leaders etc and this all makes people worried and despondent. So they stop engaging with pollsters.
In 2019 they only began to engage in the last couple of weeks and even then the prediction was 42% SNP on average, so a large number of post-2017 despondent voters remained silent to the end. Some pollsters never heard from them (e.g. Panelbase 38% SNP final poll). They still turned out though.
So it seems the Labour apparent lead over SNP falling in our first campaign polls from 10 to 4 points is rising turnout related.
Savanta tables are out with CTV numbers.
Projected turnout had fallen to it’s lowest level of 56.4% following the BHA debacle and Yousaf’s resignation. Then Swinney took the helm and it started rising. Jumped a wee bit is seems with the GE announcement and is now at 56.7% on average.
That was all it took to half Labour’s apparent lead.
If you have very low certain to vote levels in polls, a relatively small increase in this causes big changes, especially if it goes to one party.
Early days and could be a fluke, but if you want SNP to you up then you want CTV to rise and that may be happening.
I note that Savanata still struggled to find SNP voters, particularly SNP2021 which had the highest ever turnout for them. They had to actually invent the views of some SNP2021 as they could not find enough willing to respond in in 4 days of sampling. A panel poll should need 2 days max to achieve quotas, but in Scotland they’ve been taking up to 4 days recently.
Savanta interviewed 1,067 Scottish adults aged 16+ online between 24-28 May 2024
Savanta interviewed 2,235 UK adults aged 18+ online between 24-26 May 2024.
Less than half the respondents yet twice as long for Scotland.
That says SNP19/21 are still are not interested in speaking to pollsters for now. Not since they tuned out early 2023.
In visual form.
In 2024, Labour had begun to lose the benefit of falling turnout*, presumably as their unpopularity has been growing so much it was starting to override the previously positive effect falling turnout was having on their VI. They steadily fell from ~35% to 32% to end April in line with falling Starmer/Sarwar leadership ratings and rising Yes in their Lab 2019/21 ranks.
A record low low turnout projection from CTV levels* was hit with the demise of the BHA and Yousaf, and with the SNP now leaderless, Labour could be the only knee jerk gainers. But that seems to have vanished very suddenly with the arrival of Swinney and the GE announcement. CTV edged up and Labour fell sharply. 3 polls in a row lower than the two before them says it’s probably movement.
That cut labour’s apparent lead from 10 to 4 points, and from a tiny change in turnout. We are sitting at 56.7% TO. The last election was 68%.
If that trend – which goes back to 2011 – holds true, any further rise in CTV / turnout will be to SNP.
—-
*2015/17/19 data gives turnout projection (TOP) = 0.89 x certain to vote (CTV) in final pre-election polls.
The Savanta poll showed no movement on it previous poll. So the rise in CTV has had no effect on its polling numbers
There have been three polls (Savanta, Survation & More in Common ) since the election was called (average across the three polls SNP 31.6 Lab 36 Con 17 LD 8.6)
Savanta is showing no movement from its pre election poll, MiC have not polled before and Survation’s shows SNP -6 Lab +3 and Con +2 on its previous poll.
The polls may move over the coming weeks – but there is no evidence that the Lab lead over SNP falling thus far.
The only pollster showing a 10pp Lab lead over the SNP was YouGov and we wont know if this lead has changed until they poll again.
You need to go complain to Prof C at what Scotland thinks. His graph shows a tightening.
‘No change in Labour lead’ 🙂
But it could be noise.
No it shows one poll (which looks like a outliner) much high than the polls around it. We don’t know if that pollster is showing any tightening because that pollster has not polled since.
You cant compare two pollsters figures and say there has been any tightening (or loosening).
No it shows one poll (which looks like a outliner)
So you are saying Labour are lower than polls are suggesting? That the Labour spike post BHA (below and above) isn’t real? R&W got 38% just before Yougov’s 39%. Both must therefore be outliers if you believe one to be. Given 39% is within MoE of 37, you are even throwing Savanta’s numbers into outlier territory. That does make sense as Labour have been in decline over 2024 and have never topped 36%. So maybe you are correct and that the 37,38,39 just before the GE are all outliers.
Have you therefore excluded these polls from your averages? If you consider such Labour levels outliers you must or it will heavily skew your answer.
Personally, I think you are wrong and these were a real knee-jerk response to the collapse of the BHA and resignation of Yousaf, especially since 3 polls saw a spike. We were looking at the SNP going into a GE leaderless and with a possible acrimonious leadership contest underway. Out of nowhere and I’d say outliers, but tied to a major event like that and no, they’re real.
But now the SNP are not leaderless, and in fact have someone who is topping the leadership ratings in Scotland comfortably, with his ratings on the up. So my thoughts are this should undo, at least in part, any knee jerk spike, bringing the two back to more level pegging as they were before.
People can decide for themselves, but I don’t buy your Labour 37-39% = outliers. These were within MoE, putting aside any issues with sampling in terms of whether the represent real support, and they did coincide with the lowest turnout projections I’ve seen in Scotland.
If Labour are in decline (as you are saying) Then the SNP must be too – after all they got 39% in January and 38% in February and only got 29, 30, 32,33 in the latest polls – a big drop.
After all if you are saying you can compare polls from different pollsters the you have to apply that logic to all parties.
You are cherry picking to compare a selected old polls with a single new one?
When that last poll was taken, we still had Yousaf as FM and there was no GE on the cards. We are a world away from there.
Also, individual CTV numbers are nonsense to work with. Too much noise. So you have to average out. Above you have the average graphed. It’s not just Savanta that saw a small rise. The pattern is UK wide of a wee initial uptick.
It’s abundantly clear Labour VI was falling over the course of 2024. All the pollsters agreed as per the plot. Then they absolutely got a boost according to 5 different polls. Now 3 in a row say that’s gone down from peak on average. Savanta does not disagree, even if it does show no change on it’s last one which data suggest was the other side of a peak. What if it had sampled in between? Would it not have found Labour even higher? Are you suggesting Yougov and R&W were oversampling Labour at that peak or something? That polls are wrong on Labour VI? Do I need to adjust Labour values down?
The fist lesson in polling life is never look at a pollster in isolation, especially when events occurring at a rate of knots, which is what you are doing here. We don’t have a lot of data to work with, but the above is my interpretation. As for SNP, its 29, 30, 32 33, with the last (Savanta) as of 26th May so nearly 1 week ago now.
Prof Curtice as the same trends on WST.
Incidentally, the Savanta from 3rd May took a f**king massive 5 whole days to get enough SNP respondents. That’s improved ever so slightly to 4 days in the most recent. It should be 2 max FHS. Savanta are supposed to have massive panel of 10’s of k’s of willing past voters signed up to be polled. They are having serious problems if it takes 5 who days to get enough voters from a party that took close to half the vote in the past two elections.
Oh and Yes is up too in Savanta. But just not enough to show in rounded numbers.