Nigel Farage is the herpes of British politics, annoying, nasty, and impossible to get rid of. After saying for weeks that he wouldn’t be contesting the general election for his Reform party vanity vehicle, and that Reform would not be doing any deals with the Tories, Farage announced on Monday morning that he and his mini-me Richard Tice would be appearing at 4pm for an “emergency general election announcement”, the emergency presumably being that apart from his besties in the panel booking team for BBC Question Time, he’s not been getting the attention that his massive ego and sense of entitlement feel he deserves.
Reform, the successor to Ukip, is a party that has caused more damage to the UK than any other. It’s party that has never won a parliamentary seat. Following May’s local elections in England It has just 10 councillors in England, and none at all in Wales or Scotland. Even the Cornish devolutionist party Mebyon Kernow has five councillors and it stands only in Cornwall. Yet Reform gets more coverage than many parties with greater support and sitting MPs. Its extreme anti-immigration scaremongering is regularly platformed by the BBC and the other broadcasters. Naturally his announcement was headline news on the BBC.
Last week Farage insisted that he still has “one more big card to play” and said that he’d stand for Westminster at some point in the future but ruled out standing this year claiming that he was “extremely disappointed by Sunak’s decision to call a General Election on July 4. Farage said said that he could not campaign both nationally for Reform and for one constituency in the six-week timeframe of the general election.
Of course what has changed since last week is that Nige’s best pal, Donald Trump, the Mango Mussolini himself, has been convicted in a New York court on 34 felony charges of falsifying business records. Farage had planned to spend October and November campaigning in the USA on behalf of an actual law breaking fascist, but following his multiple convictions Trump’s chances of taking the presidency again have felon considerably. Trump is predictably railing against the verdict claiming that the trial was “rigged” because the justice system had the temerity to prosecute him and find him guilty. What is the world coming to when you can’t even falsify business records in an attempt to swing an election any more, because of “woke”.
Farage recently received well deserved condemnation – but not from BBC Question Time – for saying during an interview on Sky News that the streets of British Cities are full of people who “undermine British values” remarks which were widely perceived as not so much a racist dog whistle as a racist fog horn. How dare some people be Muslim in public. The truth is that nobody has done more to undermine “British values” than Nigel Farage. Mind you, imperialism, racism, and the demonisation of minority groups are very much long established British political traditions.
The “emergency announcement” turned out to be Farage telling the press that he is taking over as leader of the right wing English nationalist Reform party and intends to fail to become an MP for the eighth time, which is disappointingly predictable, I had kind of hoped he was going to tell us he’s going to appear on Strictly. But then that would have led to him being judged by a black woman and an EU immigrant.
So it transpires that Farage is standing as a candidate in this election after all, and this is an “emergency”. For whom exactly?
The news is dire for the Tories, whose already tiny chances of saving their miserable behinds in this election have now plummeted even further. For all that Farage boasted about taking votes from Labour, it’s the Tories who will be seriously damaged by this development. The Tory vote will now be split in seats which they really need to win if they are to avoid their well deserved electoral oblivion. The Tories will now pivot even further to the right in an attempt to shore up their vote and minimise losses to Farage. Labour is bound to follow suit. The Ukipification of British politics is almost complete.
Farage and his English nationalist party have no chance of winning seats in Scotland, but they could reduce the Tory vote even more in the seats in which they do stand, which could be good news for the SNP.
Labour is even more of a dead cert to win this election now than it was this morning. Despite what Starmer and Sarwar claim, Labour absolutely does not need to win seats in Scotland in order to defeat the Tories. All voting Labour in Scotland will achieve will be to marginalise and sideline Scotland for five years and to empower and enable Starmer’s right wing agenda. If you vote Labour you will be voting for a party which says it can’t find the money to abolish the abhorrent two child cap on benefits, but which can find the money for four new nuclear submarines and upgrades to the Trident programme.
A poll for Sky News published on Monday found that Starmer is on course for a record Commons majority, a majority almost four times the number of Commons seats in Scotland. The result of the general election in Scotland will not even make a dent on that. Starmer wants to crush the SNP, not in order to defeat the Tories, but because he wants to neuter Scotland politically and remove the question of Scottish independence from the agenda. Voting for Labour is a vote to be ignored and to put the likes of Douglas Alexander back in the Commons.
Meanwhile the Tories are determined to weaponise the culture wars by threatening to take powers away from the Scottish Parliament, removing from Holyrood powers over gender identity. It would be the first time that Westminster has explicitly clawed back a devolved power, as opposed to by-passing Holyrood. It won’t happen, since the Tories are set to be devastated electorally at this general election, but it would set a dangerous precedent for a devolution settlement which is already under threat, both by the Tories, and by a Labour party which wants to strip powers from Holyrood in order to give them to local authorities which are more likely to be controlled by Labour, and less able to stand up against an overweening and centralising Westminster.
If we’ve learned one thing about Keir Starmer in recent years it’s that where the Tories go, he is sure to follow. British politics are becoming ever more right wing, ever more Anglo-British nationalist, and less and less tolerant of difference and minority groups, that includes Scots, the largest minority group in the UK. It’s not the SNP you are punishing if you vote for Starmer’s right wing Labour party, you’re punishing yourself.
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Wee Ginger Dug 
Clacton primarily
Relief for S. Thanet?
Scots to become an ethnic minority in Starmer’s new country of Britain
Scots already an ethnic minority in large swathes of rural Scotland.
Really interesting. Only Douglas Ross goes for the SNP jugular. Lab and Lib punt themselves.
This says Lab + Lab fear the SNP a lot in this election. Tory just hope to max their hardcore base. They are shitting bricks.
https://news.stv.tv/politics/uk-general-election-2024-john-swinney-anas-sarwar-douglas-ross-and-alex-cole-hamilton-face-off-in-stv-leaders-debate
There is no question that a vote in Scotland for the Better Together party is a vote to end Holyrood and a return to having no say over what happens in Scotland.
The Labour scam of devolution merely gave the impression of Scots having democratic accountability but as we are finding out, not very much.
As far as Westminster is concerned,now that we have had our referendum,there is no need to continue with the farce of devolution and they can return to completely ignoring us.
With the odious Farage standing for election you can bet the house on his oiliness being granted a place in any TV debates . In fact , he is likely to be present while a representative of the third largest Westminster Party ( guess who ? ) will be ignored !
In the jargon of TV execs, Farage is “good box office.”- like George Galloway and Alex Salmond.
Like them he will be given screen time out of all proportion to their political challenge.
In the old days, Channel 4’s self-regard as “a bit alternative” was as huge as the collective egos of the above trio. They might THEN have hosted a three way NON -prime ministerial debate with them.
Speaking of odious the so called leaders debate on STV revealed something that most of us who follow politics quite closely already know, and it’s that Anas Sarwar is by far the most ill mannered obnoxious person in politics in Scotland, his tactics of talking over each of the other leaders and Colin McKay were as objectionable as he himself is
Sarwar had no interest in one word anybody tried to say in reply to anything because he wouldn’t allow them to reply, and the reason? Sarwar hasn’t a leg to stand on in terms of policy proof of a single word he and his boss Starmer utter, he is as big a fraud as Tory Douglas Ross but with even less conscience than Ross
If the people of Scotland intend to vote for this style of Labour bulldozer politics then they’ll get exactly what they deserve, a Massey Ferguson road roller driving right over the top of Scotland and flattening it just like they used to do when I was a younger man
I am soon to be 76 years old and I vote SNP for the damn good reason that I know what this Labour is now, because I remember it from then
They have not changed from left wing to right, they’ve always been right wing, and they are not filled with humility either, they’ve just become more confident of winning England and they know that entitles them to plant their boot on Scotland’s neck, and that is where Sarwar’s smirk is coming from, he cannot hide it
We either vote SNP to show them we don’t want them or we accept what they’re about to do in the name of their enforced union
Well the first comment nailed it, the people of Clacton….
Yet Farage’s choice of Clacton is pretty shrewd – They previously elected UKIP’s Douglas Carswell before turning to the Tories, who are now certain to lose the seat…
He’s still playing the same old game of portraying himself as the outsider with “there is a rejection of the political class going on in this country in a way that has not been seen in modern times”, but given the alternatives on offer to that electorate, selling the ‘new broom’ concept could well win him his first seat ever, even if it’s only for 5 years….
who are now certain to lose the seat
As Carswell said last night – he could win it but he will have to put the leg work in – a few visits with the press pack in tow won’t cut the mustard.
To be fair to Carswell despite his politics he did the right thing and triggered a by election when he switched to UKIP – something that no other MP has had the decency to do when they have switched parties.
Farague is disgusting.
Clacton is an area of England best avoided.
Au contraire – it’s a very nice part of the world. It’s warm, sunny, nice beaches, continental feel to it. My uncle lived near there, retired RAF.
Indeed it is went there a fair bit with my grandparents when is was a kid. Sadly like most of the seaside towns has just been left to rot when tourism dropped as package holidays abroad became more popular and affordable and what investment there has been has always gone to the more ‘fashionable’ towns along the south coast.
That’ll be why they voted BREXIT then, the tourist competition from abroad. Harwich for the continent, Clacton for the incontinent 🙂
Clacton for the incontinent
lol, we used to call there and Eastbourne ‘gods waiting room’ people would retire to the coast to get some clean air and sea views in their retirement years before they popped their cloggs. If you were middle class / had a bit of money you went to Eastbourne working class / less money Clacton
My uncle wasn’t poor as a retired Squadron Leader. But he was a life long Labour voter when Labour at least pretended to be socialist. He retied to St Osyth which was a bit posher perhaps than Clacton.
However, Clacton did get a £20m levelling up grant last year so the pier will have been lit up like a Xmas tree and a statue erected to Michael Gove.
As a European with a European wife, I prefer to travel to places I know my European family is welcome. This was not the message I got from Clacton voters in 2016.
And I could never feel at home in a place that votes 72% Tory. Culturally, I could not be further from them. Not only that, but these people vote to deny me my right to chose the government of my own country. I don’t have a lot in common culturally with Scots Tories never mind English ones!
Otherwise, I’m sure the scenery and historical sites are nice, but it’s the people that make a place.
I note there are areas of all countries which I’d avoid, including parts of Scotland!
That amusing Labour Yougov MRP poll from 1 week ago fieldwork wise should be ‘Labour emergency’. As per the last thread, the numbers look like so, with changes on their mid-May poll:
11(-1)% Con
34(-5)% Lab
5(-2)% Lib
33(+4)% SNP
7(-)% Green
4(-)% Reform
≤2(-)% Alba
3(+1)% Other
Labour’s lead over SNP fallen from 10 points to 1 following the announcement of the UKGE as voters begin to engage in earnest. This is consistent with other polling and not an outlier.
17% small party under FPTP comical silliness tells you we still have a lot of silent SNP, and no wonder, this was a week ago. When you remove a large section of regular voters, the voters of smaller parties become over sampled, giving you 4% Reform nonsense. Also, Greens are saying who they support, not necessarily what they’ll vote under FPTP. Tactical voting intention is only ever last minute if it appears at all in polls. We had high other and green in past mid term polls and it never materialises. Greens know that they only way they can get Greenish governments is by voting SNP / independence under FPTP. The UK will never let them have Green MPs; FPTP is designed to stop this.
42% for yes parties is just 4% down on 2019 and is due to silent SNP.
SNP+most of the Green/Alba vote, leaving a couple of % for them as normal here combined would land the SNP 37 seats. That’s the kind of massive majority that Sky are predicting for Labour in England. Just 4% more from silent voters and they’re back to 2019. There are as much as 10% silent.
So this does not say disaster for Yes / SNP at all. It says all to play for and should worry Labour a lot.
MRP polling for 2024 gives the SNP 32 seats on average, or a whopping 56% majority.
That is with silent SNP, dire low turnout projections favouring unionists, and silly Green numbers.
I don’t know if you saw it but More In Common also had an MRP poll released yesterday that was a bit overshadowed by the Yougov poll.
This MRP poll projects the SNP winning 35 seats and puts Labour on 14.
https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/general-election-2024/mrp/
When the media fawn all over Nigel Farage and includes him in everything I hope parties like the Greens start spitting feathers at the great British con artist Murdoch media for excluding them because they’re not *interesting enough* to make *good television*
Current UK wide turnout prediction update = 50.8%. Falls again with the latest JLP numbers.
No popular mandate for Labour if polls came true as things stand. On 23% of the total electorate, up 1% from 22% in 2019, but that could be just error.
No offence Skier but a lot of polling stuff bores me rigid and I actually have a qualification in statistics. The frequent use of acronyms doesn’t help either . What does JLP as quoted in your previous post actually mean. I have just read up on how the methodology of MRP polls actually works and I am even more convinced a lot of it is BS. It is not ordinary people on the street who are asked to take part in these polls but people who are politically engaged enough to register to do so. I am however curious to know what was the size of the Scottish sub sample of the YouGov poll that was done for Sky and published yesterday that determines the Snp will only win 17 seats and Labour will have 192 seats majority. Furthermore, what evidence is there that the polling was done equally across all 57 Scottish constituencies. To me recent polling results for Tories and Snp are getting more ridiculous by the minute. Guess we will find out how accurate they were after General Election.
Polling companies work inordinately hard to convince the public to prove them right
They’re just pre internet TikTok influencers for hire
JLP was the pollster sorry. JL Partners.
I’d not pay much attention to the Yougov MRP poll other than it’s a very bad picture for the union as it shows Yes combined on 42% of the vote, and that’s with huge swath of 2019 SNP still disengaged.
It’s nonsense for the reasons you touch upon; mainly because it’s not representative, not does it factor in tactical, which any prediction for FPTP should. 10% Green in many seats is just utter silliness.
Even if silent SNP stayed at home, Greens going tactical would shift tens of seats where Labour are just a point or two ahead.
It’s why More in Common just predicted 35 seats for the SNP by MRP.
How long before the Starmer Party suggests that Farage coud be welcome in to HIS Party ?
Is Farage anymore right-wing than other defectors – like Elphicke ? Or Labour (sic ) diehards – like Union Jack suited Murray ? Or the authoritarian Lisa Nandy who wants the SNP nationalists suppressed , like the Catalans , with violence ?
Such a parcel of rogues in the same party …
So, there’s a far right conference in Edinburgh, thousands of students protest, and the police pick 3 different empty pubs to lock in Sunak, Starmer and Farage for an hour. For some odd reason you too have to be locked in to one of them – which one do you reluctantly choose?
Starmer, so I can tell him I see right through the smile.
The others are straight up about being nasty right-wing bell ends. The slime ball kid starver / nuker pretends to be your friend.
My current Scotland average, which would have underestimated Yes party share in 2019, giving 50% weight as it does to English panel polls.
36% SNP
34% Lab
15% Con
5% Grn
2% Alba
= 43% Yes
Combined Yes vote is just 3% lower than 2019.
SNP 2019 still very much disengaged.
Turnout projection = 56.7% compared to 68.1% 2019. The missing should all SNP 2019 given it’s only them that have suffered as a result of the turnout projection fall.
The fact that the total Yes share is 43% in the circumstances says there may have been significant unionist to pro-indy party movement. There is some there in the cross breaks, and it would agree with the fact Yes went up amongst unionist 2019.
But without a representative sample, we can’t know.
I don’t watch TV so missed the “leaders” debate last night. But I’ve seen clips and there’s an article in The National.
TBH the whole thing is immensely boring. Why are we even having a “leaders” debate with Anas Sarwar, Douglas Ross and Cole Hamilton? It’s a General Election. The leaders of the British Parties are Keir Starmer, Rishi Sunak and the other one. John Swinney should be debating them as leader of the SNP which is fielding candidates for Westminster.
What a travesty of a democracy. Banana Republic with no bananas.
I don’t even have a choice over what I see of BBC (and particularly HMS Cook’s) internet output as I’m a ‘furrner’, but there are always kind people filling in the gaps in the ‘answer was there none’ propaganda war going on over on Youtube – Haven’t watched it yet as it may trigger yet another Tourettes-like episode, but it was STV’s first attempt at filling an hour whilst half of Scotland developed a sudden interest in films, sorting the washing, and doing pretty much anything to avoid the tedium of https://youtu.be/CJUpQvltMyM I gather there was a spike in chlorine levels at sewage treatment works as viewers discovered cludgies needed maintenance…
I note HMS James Cook leapt at the opportunity to outdo STV by including the Greens in the forth-or-fifthcoming debase sorry debate night, so I expect Scottish water can expect a further chlorine spike, whilst the Scottish public are again being showered with shite…
😂 you’re lucky! I’ve developed a severe allergy to MSM output. Not all the chlorine in Sainsburys will get rid of the nasty stain it leaves.
Meditation helps though 🙏
I find it difficult to believe you shop at Sainsburys.
I have had a few shopping rules laid out for me by the Boss and the bairns.
Anywhere that fits any of these
They don’t get any o’ wur bawbees.
We need to poke them where it hurts
Remember it was not the Greenpeace protesters on the brent spar that change Shell’s position on disposal.
It was all the people in Europe and here who bought their petrol somewhere else.
The tenderest, instantaneous rection spot for any company or politician is their wallet.
True. I used to shop at the Co-op. Then came lock down. They don’t deliver to these high pastures. Mr Sainsbury does. So does Mr Amazon (even obscure items can be delivered next day) with his reprehensible tax and employment policies.
Sometimes we don’t have the luxury of choice.
Sorry sometimes I forget that the spam belt is not an honest representation of the situation on the bulk of our land mass.
However as you point out it is all down to the right to choose. Something that we are denied in so many ways.
🙏
Brilliant Bob 😂 particularly ‘…as it may trigger yet another Tourettes-like episode,’
That’s actually got me thinking.
Starmer Sunak and Farage walk into a bar full of immigrants, and the barman says: “Welcome to Alicante”.
Sunak, Farage and Starmer walk into a bar, and the barmaid says: “…
Sunak, Starmer and Farage are having private talks on how to abolish Holyrood …
Sarwar, Ross and Cole-Hamilton walk into a telephone box and say “Right, let’s have a party conference”.
The idea being by the way, that the 3 of them are just lumped together without comment, and it’s the joke, comment or second part that is emphasised. I think it’s called “subliminal”.
Yeah, well, can’t be bothered spending time but this will do as a starmer:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subliminal_messages_in_popular_culture
I agree. The message is that the SNP is a minor regional party at the same level as “Scottish” Labour etc. so not fit to debate with the big important boys from London.
Well then. If we’re not fit for Westminster let’s quit asap.
But, but Cole Scuttle says he’s going to win it Aawll, the doorsteps have told him so
He is unlikely to come round my way but I’ve warned my doorstep to say nothing to him.
A Scottish flag in the gairden is an excellent deterrent. They’ll never approach if they see one.
Union Jack attracts right wing unsavoury types by contrast.
Must remember to put my saltire up what with an election and the euros coming. Just had too many other DIY jobs to do in the new hoose.
BBCs Nick Eardley is tonight going to tell us all who’s telling the truth and who’s lying during and following the Biiig important debate, he’s going to correct the numbers figures and financial claims of both Titans of English plotitricks, which makes you think well why bother with the debate at all then? just tell us the truth like the BBC don’t normally do, there’s really no need for politicians at all if the BBC are going to do this job, I suppose after all we do pay them the most ginormous amounts of money for denying us the truth so it’d make a nice change for us all to hear Rupert Murdoch’s real truth, sorry not Rupert Murdoch, jings, got my names wrong there, Nick somebody from the BBC or whatever, wasn’t it?
“Answer was there none” Robinson…
There’s a lot of fuss about “the nuclear deterrent” do we want it, does it deter, will we fire it, will we not, should we spend spend spend on it, should we scrap it? and the whole debate rumbles on for the benefit of a terrified England, because I can’t think of anybody I’ve ever spoken to in my entire life in Scotland who’s terrified of a nuclear attack, so much so that we marched along to Holyrood and demanded something be done about the thing
And there’s a reason for that, Scotland doesn’t get a choice in the matter, it’s that simple, a country, a nation equal to all others in the UK we’re told continuously where this thing is kept has nothing, zip, sod all to do with one single person in the whole of Scotland, we do not count, we are nothing except for the unwilling bin that England parks this thing
Deterrent! shout the English British politicians, well no it isn’t is it, the nuclear weapon is the weapon of two purposes and none of them is defence, because those two purposes are murder and revenge, there’s absolutely no other use for them, so ask the question do you want to murder entire races in countries? the answer I’m quite sure will probably be no we don’t, so do we want to take revenge after the event following some state murdering all of us, the answer is highly likely to be what’s the point if we’re all dead?
Given that England’s nuclear weapons are parked here in Scotland do we care whether England takes revenge on the folks who killed us all in Scotland so they could blow England’s nuclear shit up, or do we think England would do a deal with whoever killed the nation of Scotland to avoid themselves further damage?
They’ll do a deal won’t they, which means Scotland is paying £billions to be the target for somebody else’s nuclear weapons, the country of Scotland is the bargaining chip deterrent, not the weapons, so that England can negotiate their own avoidance later as a result of our possible untimely deaths from a bad guy firing death stuff at us to demonstrate to England how nasty they can be
They can take our oil, our gas, our electricity, but they’ll never take our lives, Oh yes they will
BTW vote Labour for a quick and certain death
There is a third purpose……
Permanent seat on the UN security council. And the empire mentality.
Angela Raynor falling in to line with Sir ”Nuke ’em ” Starmer as she burns her principles over Trident . Perhaps she will be able to explain Starmer’s statement that you can’t build services like the NHS without having a secure Nuclear Deterrent !
She, like him , has said that they will be ”fighting for peace ”- ( like f*cking for virginity ) – that’ll work !
Note : Starmer has stated that he will have a Triple-Lock on Trident – and will not suffer ANY debate in the Party about this .
Where is his similar commitment to – The NHS or the Eradication of Poverty ? Where is the triple-Lock on these issues which most voters would probably value ahead of Trident ?
Why no Triple-Lock on erasing the punitive Two Child Welfare Cap ? Is Trident more important than lifting some kids out of poverty , Sir Kid Starver ?
That’s England Labour and Tory eh? I double dare you bad people to destroy and murder the nation of Scotland, because then you’ll see us British negotiate hard
I see Nigel Farage has totally adopted the Liberal Democrat stunt campaigning and continued with the milk shake throwing, well it was great publicity last time and the public are thick aren’t they Nige old boy
It’s like he’s never been away
…but the Milk curdled on contact with Farage !
I wondering if I should take back what I said about people in Clacton.
I assume BBC Scotland is reporting this as the ‘ugly side of UK politics’ and hinting how Scots should go for independence to escape it?
No I think attacking politicians in England is considered OK, but pantomime boos for a crass question from a journalist in Scotland is pretty much on par with Russians using Polonium to silence critics.
It is a relativity thing… said some Einstein chap.
Indeed.
Nice touch and publicity. Anything that puts Scotland on the map is great, especially with England trying to take Scotland off the map.
https://archive.is/FR6jV
How Dior put Scotland at the heart of its Drummond Castle show
Aye, and it’s a doorstep one for us in the Strath ☺️
A caviate for the next YouGov Poll:
Change in methodology means ‘we don’t think our current method is giving the correct answer‘. 🙂
Their MRPs had an 17-18 point Labour lead compared to 25-27 in the most recent two regular polls. That’s a huge difference. One – or both – is a pile of Dung as both can’t be right! Both can be wrong, but both can’t be right.
Maybe in the middle, maybe MRP, maybe even MRP is wrong? It gives unfeasible comical silliness in Scotland for example. We know its in all probability wrong here by a healthy margin, but we don’t know what’s right.
No way of knowing until the ballots are counted!
The problem is, for their reputations, they need to start getting it right soon. Low potential turnouts, low response rates from key voters (SNP 2019, maybe Con 2019 too), high share for parties unlikely to win seats so may lose to tactical on the day all make for big potential errors.
They’ll be praying for response rates / certain to vote levels to rise, as this is what helps them become accurate close to voting day. So far, these have remained stubbornly low.
Lol. Read the Yougov twitter (I’m never calling it X) method change thread. Translates as:
‘We are going to reduce Labour’s lead in our polls from tomorrow as we think they are notably lower than we’ve been saying‘.
This is base covering.
Their regular polls have Labour on 23% of the total electorate ready to go out and vote for them based on certain to vote levels now vs those in final 2017 & 19 polls.
Their latest MPR says 21.8% of the total electorate would vote Labour tomorrow using the same factoring. In the 2019, Labour got the support of 21.6%. So MRP is saying ‘Labour has not gained any support NET on 2019’s disaster, it’s all turnout collapse‘.
Which is why if this happened, the UK political system would be in a whole heap of trouble. Number of votes that created ‘Worst defeat since 1935‘ cannot become ‘Glorious win riding popular wave for change‘. No, it creates a constitutional crisis of epic proportions.
It would begin over the course of the day as the news reported the desperately low turnouts. How voters had stayed at home, turned off as they were by Westminster. A Labour win would be completely delegitimised before votes were even counted. Winning candidates would be questioned as to where their mandate was given the collapse in turnout. From day 1 Labour would be having to say they need to win over voters to give them a mandate, and after they were supposed to have won!
This can be brushed off in by-elections, but not in a general election.
Plenty of time left for changes yet, but that’s where we are. Expect surprises whatever happens!
Just watched a Party Political Broadcast by DRoss for …eh .. well, not too sure as he mentioned the SNP 17 times in three minutes . I think he meant that we were to vote for the Scottish Conservatives .. but I could be wrong !
“No, it creates a constitutional crisis of epic proportions.”
Get what you’re saying but I reckon any fuss about this will be over in a week or so after the result, and they’ll simply carry on regardless.
Them just carrying on is what would compounds such a crisis.
By contrast, them – i.e. Labour – responding to such a desperately low turnout with genuine attempts to resolve this (introducing PR and closing the HoL for a start) could help to begin to fix the crisis, but we can be totally confident they won’t do this.
And the hard right wing press would never let Starmer forget he has no mandate. They want their favoured bought and sold politicians in power.
[…] Source […]
I hope undecided Scots tune into the two cheeks of the erse debate tonight. We need them to know Starmer.
Another MRP poll surfaces, this time from Survation and once again it is very different from the two yesterday as far as Scotland goes forecasting 26 seats for the SNP.
That makes it 17, 26 or 35 seats just one day apart, personally I think they’re all wrong and are over estimating Labours chances here, so far on this evidence 2 out of 3 must be wrong and it is not a stretch to see it being all 3 that are wrong.
https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-labour-set-for-record-breaking-majority/
MRP is about as sh*te as a regular poll while voters are not engaged, which is where we remain.
“Mass disillusionment in Britain kills millions” might as well be the headline as people look like they probably won’t go to the polls to elect anybody at the next election
The choice of being hanged by the neck until you are dead or hanged by the neck for longer, not being a choice any nations anywhere on earth would relish, we must remember that in many countries around the world there are people far more despondent than we, with not a shred of hope of any future because their countries are run by even worse people than ours is
Even though British politics has done this to us all we cannot and must not allow the British to crush Scotland using this ultimate tool of apathetic damnation of our spirit so as we do nothing because it appears we’re doomed beyond hope
Vote Scotland, vote SNP and let’s tell them it’s over now go away and leave us in peace to get on
If we don’t we allow them to gloat and revel in what they will call a victory with the least votes cast for the most unwanted PM probably in British history
Police Scotland have dropped their investigation into the second complaint against Michael Matheson. Well at least they didn’t spin this one out until the election. Perhaps they could look into charging someone with wasting police time.
Link
No further police action over new Matheson iPad bill complaint
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c899e7ywd0do
On the anniversary of D-day, we should remember all the Scots – and those of every nation – that fought and died in wars to ensure their fellow countryfolk – and those of other countries – could freely vote for the government of their choosing for their nation.
Like my grandparents, great grandparents… great great grandparents…
The government of England now spits on the graves of these brave Scots as they deny iref2. They attempt to do to Scotland what e.g. Hitler never managed.
Lest we forget.
From the Herald:
“Police Scotland drops probe into Michael Matheson expenses“
It wasn’t a probe, the Herald is illiterate. The Police received a couple of complaints, obviously they quickly found there were no grounds for continuing so they stopped.
“probe” implies that the Police originated the investigation – they didn’t.
There is no ‘probe into SNP finances‘.
There is only a ‘probe into at most 3 individuals in charge of SNP finances several years ago who no longer are in charge‘.
The SNP are not being investigated and neither are their finances. But England / Britain is not a friend of Scotland, so that is what the headlines will say.
OMG it’s awful.
So good for the Yes movement.
Hope Scots are watching.
#Englishleadersdebate
There were no Union Flags on display at this ”debate ”- how do we know who is the most patriotic and best PM for ”the country ” ?
A poll for sioness.
Wow! Brilliant for Plaid. Just a few more votes to oust unionists for good.
Thank you, Alex.
Note also that the FM is facing a vote of no confidence today when, Labour have 30 seats and the combined opposition have 30 seats in the Senedd.
Interesting times, indeed. Pass the popcorn!
According to the snap poll Sunak edged Starmer 51% to 49%. Bit of a misstep from Starmer. Although I doubt it will save Sunak.
Och lol, and with Labout being oversampled right now according to pollsters.
I stuck it on for 15 mins before I could take no more. It was two posh right wing English bullies squealing at each other in an English playground.
Both showed themselves as wholly unfit to be PM of England never mind Scotland.
My overwhelming feeling was one of complete detachment. That this was an English debate about England’s election. I was watching foreign TV. The fact that Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish leaders were excluded, was presumably designed to nurture this feeling in respective populations. That and to hold separate ‘Scottish’ debates, as we’ll have with independence. Both combine to create a feeling that Scotland is not British, but Scottish only. Like the census shows.
They were both useless and as far as we are concerned you wouldn’t have known that Scotland actually existed especially at the end when they talked about England at the Euro’s and ignored the fact another country from the UK was also going there.
It won’t have done either party any favours in Scotland, they don’t deserve the support of any Scots, to them we don’t even exist and/or are irrelevant.
Interesting. I responded above before reading on to this post.
Seems what I felt would have been felt by all Scots.
it’s a strange approach if saving the union is your goal.
As for MRP vs regular polls…
The former find Labour lower while the latter have been oversampling Labour voters.
In Scotland, similar is seen. MRP has the SNP ahead of Labour in a period where regular polls had the latter building a lead, again due to oversampling.
MRP also shows total Yes party share just a few points shy of 2019, with 11% of the 2019 electorate still disengaged, pretty much all of which seem to be SNP2019 & Yes.
When pollsters apply tactical factoring, SNP shoot up. And thud will be generalised British tactical factoring not designed for Scots.
On the subject of polls. I see that the polls in India got it wrong. They predicted a landslide for Modi but in the only poll that counted he did not get enough seats to form a Government on his own therefore will require a coalition partner.
Thanks for saving me the effort of noting that! 😀
Modi supporters were likely being heavily oversampled due to the narrative that he was on for a massive landslide. Caused opposition voters to disengage.
These silent opposition voters just went about their business and when it came to voting day, voted.
Yes / SNP up overall and Swinney gone positive in the latest heavy Labour oversampling English Redfield and Wilton poll. Very like Salmond 2011. Way behind on VI, but surging on leadership.
Amazing how they can get all their fieldwork done in 2 days when all the pollsters that have been polling Scotland for years are taking over 4 days right now. Truly miraculous!
Building a massive lead over Sarwar. 39% to 26%. People thinking Ross would be a better FM than Sarwar is more comical hilarity from an English pollster.
SNP go ahead for Holyrood as a result, and that’s with more unionist 2019 oversampling as certain to vote / turnout levels have fallen again. Or rather they’re bouncing around the same low level still on average, but down notably in this poll (54% turnout predicted). The Missing 11% on 2019 on average are all SNP2019 or Unionist 2019 to SNP. Still disengaged – watching English TV debates and totally turned off like the GE is for another country. Labour down as a share of the total electorate on R&W’s last poll. So all good.
Of interest maybe is Green falling on the regional list. That bodes well for Green to SNP tactical in the UKGE and maybe an SNP majority 2026. Something to watch.
As for nonsense Westminster VI. Tories surging while collapsing! Reform going to take 4%! A record 9% about to vote for small parties under FPTP! Och lol. Bless the wee English pollsters and their Scotch surveys.
Tory is much lower in MRP polls too in Scotland.
As per yougov and other pollster’s advice, don’t take the headline VI seriously. Golden rule is when leadership ratings don’t match VI a poll is dung. Pollsters are going to now start working to try and address the UK-wide Labour oversampling problem. Advanced MRP has Labour 10 points lower than regular approaches UK wide. This has implications for us too as we count as UK still! We are part of the same UK wide panels they’re using. Labour could be 10 points lower here too, and its pollsters now saying this, not lonely voice in the wilderness me.
Nothing they nor I can do to predict what silent SNP2019 will do.
Look at Labour 2019 and their opinion on Swinney vs Sarwar. That is really something and very important, as we likely have silent Lab 2019 -> SNP too.
Statistically, they are split down the middle, with almost half of those giving a view preferring a pro-indy SNP FM to their own party leader!
O/T but relevant to the election – am getting really hacked off with the Scotland being highest taxed in the Uk narrative which is stopping people from moving here – just interviewed a lad from England who reckoned he couldn’t move here because he would be taxed so heavily.
Pointed out to him that Scotland taxes people earning over £28906 more than the rest of the UK, at £28906 it’s parity and anything under it’s less
on the salary we were offering he would pay £90 more in tax per annum!
Council tax averages £1k more in England
he had a mortgage on a 3 bed house – he could have the same property in Scotland for £150k less saving him over £8k per year
overall he would have an increase in disposable income of almost £750 pcm he is off to consider his options!
Has he never watched “homes under the hammer”?
In Scotland you can buy a mansion with acres of land for what it would cost for a mousehole in London
Yet he agreed to the interview ? More likely he was playing ‘the thicko’ hoping to squeeze an improved salary….
I do however agree the propaganda is wearing….
he was trying it on for more money we just called his bluff but still the propaganda is real and present and there will be a lot of people who accept it at face value
Media complain about themselves
They call it *head to head* they use terms like *clash* *hit back* then the next day they complain that the viewers or listeners want a more consensual tone
The media take the public for mugs, they set up a boxing match then complain that two folk punched each other
It’s bad enough having to listen to lying politicians, but it’s much worse listening to manipulative lying journalists twisting the populations melons until they can’t think straight
Best just to switch it all off then vote for whoever the BBC tells us eh
We need a *head to head* with all the broadcasters, then remove their heads
Lab on 34% on a 56.8% record low turnout is what polls are saying at face value. And falling recently. All the swing / churn occurring is Lab-Con, or unionist to Yes/SNP None NET unionist to SNP/Yes. SNP / Yes rise and fall with engagement, as reflected in certain to vote numbers.
So Scotland continues to barrel towards a hated Labour government it neither wanted nor voted for.
It remains very much the case that polls say Labour / the union cannot win this election, even if the SNP/Yes don’t either.
But still plenty of time for change. As noted previously, polls never saw movement ahead of 2019 until the final two weeks. Even then silent SNP saw them underestimate SNP support.
TV news broadcaster asks Stephen Flynn why he hates the English
Well OK she didn’t use those words, she did what they all do when the football comes around, they ask why Scots don’t support England because the English support Scotland, yadda yadda yadda anti English much
Will we list the reasons for them or will we leave space on the internet and just not bother?
Why is it never the Welsh or N. Irish we supposed hate? There’s 4 home nations in the union.
Arrogance is why.
Arrogance + Ignorance = Racism
After so much football related trauma with the Scotland team when I was much younger I don’t support any football team at all. A big problem for Scotland is there are far too many 90 minute patriots in this country. With football there are also far too many knuckle dragger supporters particularly of the Rangers and Celtic kind who beat up their partners when their team gets gubbed.
It’s truly remarkable that Swinney is getting positive / climbing ratings and Yes keeps on creeping up even with such heavy labour oversampling.
Unionists are steadily warming to both. It’s the only way such apparently contradictory polling is possible.
I cannot say the same will happen, but the last time I saw such contradictions was ahead of 2011 and 2015. Both had VI showing Labour winning, but leadership showing SNP.
I cannot say the same will happen, but the last time I saw such contradictions was ahead of 2011 and 2015. Both had VI showing Labour winning, but leadership showing SNP.
Was VI showing Labour in 2015? Assuming Wikipedia is accurate, the SNP were polling ahead of Labour in every single poll between the referendum and the general election. By the time there was a month to go to the GE the SNP were on about twice Labour’s VI.
Savanta UK shows no certain to vote change. So my current UK turnout prediction remains a desperately low 50.8%. That’s crazy low.
No mandate for Starmer. Seats maybe, but no democratic mandate.
Massive constitutional crisis gets ever closer. 29 days until it seems the sh*t will hit the fan.
I’ve no idea how Westminster parties can turn this around.
Survation’s MRP poll has SNP ahead of Lab. On average, that’s what MRP is giving while regular cheapo English panel polls suggest the reverse.
This is why pollsters are concerned that polling is overestimating Labour.
Further anecdotal evidence that my feelings about the debate were in general shared by Scots as a whole.
According to the BBC Nigel Farage is the leader of a major political party but Scottish FM and SNP party leader John Swinney is not
England is Britain is UK once again, but what’s worse, Nigel Farage is the leader of what now?
“Nigel Farage is the leader of what now?” – ‘The Establishment’ who hire “The management” who make everyfink undesiwireable dishappear…
As you may know, the new Bank of England banknotes (which I helped to promote are coming out today.)
All change as King Charles banknotes enter circulation (nation.cymru)
[…]
Ross Borkett, banking director at the Post Office, said: “This historic launch of the new banknotes featuring King Charles III comes as we experience the highest costs of living in British history
levels of cash withdrawals and deposits in Post Office branches.[…]
There. Fixed it for him.
In case you wanted the link:
All change as King Charles banknotes enter circulation (nation.cymru)
Does this mean that the ”Lizzie” ones are worthless ?
Apparently not. These will eventually be replaced by the Charlie ones over time, but it’s not an immediate thing. (I haven’t seen any Carlo coins, yet.)
[…]
In line with guidance from the Royal Household, the new notes will only be printed to replace those that are worn, and to meet any overall increase in demand.
The approach aims to minimise the environmental and financial impact of the change.
[…]
While banknotes featuring Queen Elizabeth II remain legal tender and there is no need to exchange them, people who are interested to see the new banknotes can now get their hands on them.
Facilities
The Bank of England has put temporary facilities in place to allow people to obtain a limited amount of the King Charles III banknotes.
It has set up a postal exchange service, running from June 5 to 30, up to a limit of £300 per customer. An application form and further details are on the Bank of England’s website.
The Bank of England counter at Threadneedle Street in central London will also be issuing new notes featuring the King from June 5 to 11 and the same limit of £300 per customer applies.
[…]
So, like the pollsters, I have adopted MRP from the GE announcement. These are much bigger samples with what should be more reliable predictions. They cannot remove silent SNP, but they can take the noise out so reducing silliness.
For example, in the 4 so far, Labour in Scotland range from 33.7 to 35.0% with a slight edging down suggested. For SNP range is 30 to 34; with an upwards trend indicated. Trends agree with regular polling, but there is less noise.
My method would have under-predicted SNP in 2019 by a decent few points, so is conservative. It is a long time since we had a telephone poll, but since panel polls have basically identical SNP numbers to when the last one was, and IPSOS have never got below what they got for the SNP in many, many years, we can make an assumption that it would not have changed much, so keep it in. Not ideal, and hopefully they’ll jump in to provide one soon. It will be our only Scottish poll if they do.
You can see how desperately low the predicted turnout is; just 56.7%. Down 11.4% on 2019 and these are all silent SNP. Hence it’s only the SNP that suffer from them going silent. No swing as the SNP goes down; every gets a proportional share of the missing pie. No SNP come home to Labour NET. Not one.
Labour are behind narrowly, but being flattered by a turnout that would render their 33% no real gain at all. Starmer would have have taken Labour to Thatcher levels of support in Scotland; she got 21% of the total electorate in Scotland in 1983. That’s how bad things are for Labour. And he has actually won over a few Tories.
There’d be no hiding the mass boycott of Scots of union parliament elections in protest against the regime if these numbers came off. 2026 would be the end of the UK.
Only the teeniest indicating in an uptick in turnout projections so far. But then in 2019 this only happened in the last 2 weeks. We are 4 weeks out.
And now we wait.
From the National about a poll:
“The poll surveyed 2660 Scottish adults, 1136 of whom voted for the SNP in the 2019 General Election.“
1136 is 42.7% of 2660 which at first glance seems to reasonably represent the 45.0% the SNP got back in 2019.
HOWEVER current polling shows around 29% or even less are currenlty intending to vote SNP, which means 1/3rd or more of the 2019 voters aren’t currently intending to vote SNP.
And THAT means that if a poll, as this one, is seeking to explore whether oil and gas licences policy should be changed, then this poll is NOT competent to do so. It would need to separately explore those who did and will vote SNP, from those who did and won’t.
Sorry Mark Diffley, this seems to have been a badly organised poll. It is not fit to determine policy for the forthcoming GE. In fact it would be very misleading and dangerous to do so.
That’s if the National article is a fair representation.
https://archive.is/krOmw#selection-1817.3-1817.104
In fact it would be very misleading and dangerous to do so
Not all 2019 voters are the same. Silent ones are not the same as vocal ones. Those leaning to Lab are not the same as e.g. those who decided SNP long ago and are are totally disengaged as they’ll never change their minds, but will go out and vote.
So just because you reach your quota of people who claim to have voted for party X in 2019, does not mean you have a representative sample of voters.
This is 101 polling, and pollsters do admit this, that panel members are ‘more engaged’ than the general public, ergo may not represent them, particularly outside of election time. Yougov even used to break down SNP into more than one type to try and better predict their behaviour.
We know SNP 2019 are massively disengaged, so polls cannot be representative because we know we don’t have sufficient ‘Disengaged 2019 SNP‘ in the sample. These make up 11% of the 68% that voted in 2019. It’s huge. If they come out and vote, things could be turned on their head completely.
2019 had 45% SNP on a 68% turnout. If you take away that 11% SNP, SNP share becomes, yes, you guessed it, 34% on a 57% turnout. That’s what polls are seeing. It’s that simple. No PhD need for this. It’s simple mass balance.
MRP is hinting a little here about silent SNP. These are massive samples, so a massive number of requests are sent out. This might help just a little. It would do so by increasing the probability of the pollster reaching more silent SNP types who are just that bit more willing to engage.
When pollster puts out thousands of fishing lines instead of 100’s, more quiet 2019 SNP swimming around are caught and SNP share goes up, Lab down. The SNP ignoring the bait cannot be caught, but still helps a little.
We tell our clients to do the same thing. When fluids are being variably diluted, you just need to take many more samples. That will increase the probability of you getting lucky and capturing a sample which is more representative.
What it needs is to make the current Voting Intention a gateway question. So if it was SNP in 2019 and in 2024, then they get asked if more oil and gas licences would make them change their mind. Same for SNP in 2019 but not in 2024. They could probably do similar with people who didn’t vote SNP in 2019, making that a gateway question also.
It would cost more money. And probably need twice as many respondents. But if the SNP are going to determine policy on the questions, it’s what’s needed.
It’s pretty basic stuff.
BREAKING NEWS:
A vote of no confidence is passed into Vaughan Gething in the Senedd.
It is passed 29 votes to 27.
He is now on his way to Normandy. He is not obliged to resign but does put the FM in an awkward/dangerous position.
Enjoy the popcorn!
Unlike the SNP, Labour lack principles, so he’s not stepping down.
Good for PC.
I read earlier that he has no intention of standing down, I suspect that might change as the pressure on him mounts.
One remembers the words of Thatcher, who coincedentally was also in France as her days became numbered …
I expect people might be getting sick reading about polls as there seems to one along every 5 minutes but I had to post this one from Yougov as it shows Reform neck and neck with the Tories since Farage says he would lead them.
Their new methodology also shows Labour down from 45% to 40% and the SNP up 1% to 3%. I still take every one of these polls with a big pinch of salt but get a kick out of imagining how panicked the Tories are now that Farage is back LOL
Disturbing that 17% would vote for a pretty far right party. A few more points from the Tories and they could cause a bit of an identity crisis in English politics.
It’s half that on a 50% odd turnout, but that’s what’s particularly scary. We are used to elected dictatorships in the UK. The polls say an unelected one is coming. A massive Labour majority with just 20 odd % support amongst the total electorate is a dark day for the UK. It won’t survive it.
There already is an identity crisis in English politics with some at least.
https://x.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1798382291103686727
Wrong link.
The contrasting view.
Good for her – an interesting contrast and she’s spot on about voting for someone local who cares about local issues.
But they are both saying the same thing i.e. the political class ignores them and they feel powerless and miserable. Dangerous times.
She should stand because she obviously cares. And she’s a million times nicer than farage
Good to see them attempting to correct for Labour oversampling.
Can’t fix silent SNP, but should make things a bit more representative.
Based on a 51% turnout projection, this poll would have Labour on less support amongst the total electorate than in 2019.
Yet on for a big majority.
UK over.
Also, Reform making serious inroads would absolutely push Scots to independence. Hopefully that message is heard in these parts.
It’s funny really. This being an election you can bet the GTories will say it’s as a result of their questions in Holyrood last week. I daresay Labour will accuse the SNP of electioneering by suddenly announcing the Tomatin to Moy dualling will go ahead.
https://archive.is/rU5JB
But the thing is, the roots of this were last November, and February, and because this time there were 3 tenders for the contract, rather than one which apparently was overpriced.
What would be interesting is a bit of insight into how the road construction industry has been affected by Brexit, Coronavirus – and perhaps competition for new builds. I look forward to the program on BBC real soon now.
On the subject of standards of reporting by the way, you’d think someone would have told us whether this is connecting two already dualled parts of the A9. Or will there be very small gaps at either end!!!
O/T Good to see The King at the commemoration ceremony to mark the 80th anniversary of D Day .
I am sure that military veterans , displaying their hard-earned medals , will have been chuffed to see Chic weighed down with medals and other assorted decorations as if he was the most decorated soldier in History .
At such a ceremony , remembering as it does the many , many service personnel who died on the beaches of Normandy , it would have been more fitting if The King , who never served in any conflict , would show some humility and eschew the many trinkets that he perennially wears on his uniform (s) in order to respect those who actually earned theirs .
Prince William said in his speech that areas where Scots/Welsh/Irish from the north soldiers were buried on the continent will be ‘forever England’.
The English were just 1 of 4 peoples from the UKoGB&NI that stormed the beaches of Normandy.
https://www.scotlandspeople.gov.uk/article/scottish-soldiers-wills-d-day-1944
Our Records: Scottish soldiers’ wills from D-Day 1944
The Soldiers’ Wills available through ScotlandsPeople can provide fascinating insights for family historians: the whereabouts of parents or wives, precious clues about who the soldiers served with and died alongside, and the direct connection of seeing a document in the soldier’s own handwriting. Among almost 5,000 Soldiers’ Wills from the Second World War are many written by men who fought and fell in the Normandy invasion that began on D-Day, 6 June 1944.
Those who pin ‘British’ on these people without their consent besmirch their memories.
My grandparents that served did so as Scottish and Irish, not British.
What?! This from the Prince of Wales [sic. and sick.] no less!
#NotMyPrince
ITV news broadcaster has decided to tell us the truth about when politicians lie, so much so they tell us tonight that they knew all the garbage the Tories talked about Brexit was lies, the side of the bus, all lies
But here’s the bit that bothers me, ITV news seems to want congratulations for informing us that they were and are as big a bunch of liars as the Tories and Labour for not telling the morons that voted for Brexit they were being lied to the first time around, they want congratulations for at long last coming clean on their own silence
So all is forgiven Broadcasters now that you’ve admitted you’ve been lying on behalf of English governments for years, thanks a lot you lovely Bastirts, the damn nerve and cheek of this is beyond fantasy, and you know what, there are morons who’ll still say Brexit was the truth and the media is only lying now
here’s Jon Stewart’s take on that very point.
Jon Stewart nails it there.
Four constituent parts of The Great British union but only one part controls the power of the media and refuses to *allow* other parts their own media
The legal system in one part of The Great British union can override the legal systems of the other three on the instructions of the same part that controls the media
One part of the four constituent parts of The Great British union can make laws that apply to the other three parts without consultation or agreement and can also strike down laws of the other three parts of the union
And through it all the Great British media report all of this as normality
Nobody in the media ever mentions that this does not resemble any other union on the face of planet earth, but when it appears in exactly the same fashion in other countries The Great British media scream dictatorship
British dictatorship good ( we’re all in it together keep your chin up) foreign dictatorship (bad despotic evil when will it end)
Though not for viewers in Scotland.
More boring polling stuff. Regarding this:
https://archive.is/ofw2R
Why are we doing this?
In recent months our MRP model and our traditional voting intention figures have tended to show a slightly different picture. Our MRP model gives Labour a marginally lower vote share and the Liberal Democrats a slightly higher share. In the run up to the polling day, we want to put out clear and consistent data, using the method that we think is the most accurate. That is MRP.
This is how MRP (we’ve had 3 UK-wide since the GE was announced, with he smallest sample in Scotland larger than a standard poll) compares to cheapo inaccurate regular English panel polling in Scotland. Brackets shows the changes when you use MRP vs regular polling.
33.4(+2.0)% SNP
32.6(-4.4)% Lab
14.8(-2.3)% Con
8.1(+0.1)% Lib
3.8(+0.8)% Grn
3.8(-0.2)% Ref
2.0(+1)% Alb
SNP Lead over Lab
0.8(+5.7)%
It’s a similar change to what happens UK wide in terms of Labour, who are being oversampled. SNP go up a little, but it’s the heavy oversampling of Labour that is most curtailed.
This does not mean MRP is giving the correct numbers for Scotland. No, it is still not getting representative samples. Not if even a modest proportion of the massive 11% silent SNP are actually planning to vote. MRP is at best reaching a few more of these, but in generally they will be silent to it as well. Silent SNP did turn out last time, with 3% even remaining completely silent to the end, taking SNP to 45% rather than the final pollster average of 42%. For panelbase, the silence was even more deafening, hence their 38% SNP final poll.
What MRP is doing is giving more realistic numbers which tie in better with more accurate telephone polling, leadership ratings etc. SNP are ahead in leadership, so they should be ahead in VI. This is the golden rule. It applies in England, and with MRP, it does in Scotland too, unlike in the case of regular cheapo panel polls.
Silent SNP mean ‘others’ are still unrealistically high, but the e.g. mirage of Tory ‘surges’ when they are in collapse seen in regular polls is tempered.
Also, these MRPs will not be fully weighted to the Scottish electorate, so they will tend to give more ‘English’ results, hence reform on 4% lol. That won’t happen, just as mid term silly values for Brexit and UKIP in the past never materialised. That’s just your vocal agitators being oversampled when the silent majority are so.
But SNP are ahead according to the method pollsters believe is the most accurate. They also appear to be up since the GE was announced, in agreement with cheapo regular polls. That’s with silent SNP still at 11%, making for a record low current turnout projection.
If we factored in an IPSOS telephone with its always higher SNP than panel, SNP are on 36 to Labour’s 32. SNP + Grn + Alba are on 42%, just 4% shy of 2019’s 46%. That is, again, without the 11% silent SNP 2019. You do the math about what happens if these start to turn out.
What silent SNP 2019 do will decide the outcome. They stay at home, union loses, SNP loses (seats). They turnout, union loses, SNP wins; seats and maybe indy earlier than expected.
Just completed a YouGov survey on GE politicians, parties, leaders etc. Expect it is going to be published at the weekend in one of the newspapers.
Did you tell them you were voting Reform 😁
Must admit I’m silent SNP these days. I was in 2019 too. One of the people that caused pollsters to under-predict SNP.
I am engaged, but not with pollsters like I used to be. I was signed up to them all, but gradually lost interest. I mean I’m Yes, SNP, and not going to change my mind. Ever. I’m not a swing / floating voter. I am vote in such a way to get Scotland closer to independence every time I can. People speaking to pollsters / polling results do nothing to change election outcomes too, which is why I’ve not bothered.
It seems a huge number of voters were like me in 2019, causing the surprise SNP bounce back the pollsters only caught a little of the wind of in the final two weeks.
If ISPOS call me, I’ll happily answer like I’ve done before. They can reach me, the English panel pollsters can’t.
Interesting. SNP 5% UK-wide in the latest IPSOS telephone poll. Not seen a 5% in a good while. 47% SNP + Green + Alba in the subsample.
As noted, telephone does not have the same reach issue of panel polls. Less silent voters. IPSOS have not found the SNP to fall below the levels they predicted for 2019.
Hugh uncertainty remains UK-wide:
Starmer keeps on creeping up negative ratings wise if you smooth out.
28% sat to 58% diss in the Scottish sample. Most unpopular new PM in waiting ever.
Certain to vote has falling a little in IPSOS, so my UK turnout prediction is now 50.7(-0.1)%
Ergo no mandate for Starmer.
‘Labour: winning when you stay at home!’
Last couple of polls show certain to vote Labour of total electorate levels are sitting at their 2019 to data average, and exactly the same as for their worst defeat since 1935 at the last election.
Starmer has won over nobody. Nobody. Not a sod.
Understand that and you understand that Scots have not gone home to Labour. It has not happened.
It is all turnout projection related.
You can see in 2019, Labour got something of a last minute boost. No sign of that so far this time.
47% Yes parties based on 76% certain to vote in the Scots subsample. By a country mile the highest level of voting certainty of any region.
When CTV goes up, SNP goes up…
“Douglas Ross denies ‘stitch up’ as he announces shock General Election bid“
In fairness he’s putting himself on the line for his Party, and if he loses it will be abjectly, devastatingly, disgracefully, humiliatingly, embarrassing for him.
He should be clapped.
If he loses he will get a big fat severance package and have to fall back on his £72,000 Holyrood pay plus expenses plus his £6,5000 referee income and whatever else he is up to.
Also, what an outrageous carve up of Moray, cut in half with Elgin going north and the rest lumped in with Banff/Buchan. The destruction of ancient Scottish counties continues.
Still – I do hope he loses.
…in irons?
the Tories deselected the sitting MP for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East to allow Ross to stand in a safer constituency,
it was all done in the best possible taste, they say.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c977x2ldv7eo
I’d be surprised if he wins, the Tories are collapsing UK-wide and English polls have been heavily over-egging them, suggesting surges while they collapse silliness. IPSOS have had 14(-9)% Con since the mini-budget, and that’s with quiet SNP still something of an issue for them, so 14% helped by a low turnout if they lucky. Or rather unlucky as a super low turnout would be a disaster for the union.
I have them on 9% of the total electorate. If turnout edges up even a bit, they will go down, and fast. If con is going to get wiped out in Con loving England, they’re absolutely f**ked here.
Indeed 🙂
Future FM DFM Kate Forbes took FMQs today and dealt with the opposition like she was the ultimate school headmistress, so much so that Labour’s Jackie Baillie, unable to score questionable points, launched herself into a Labour campaign speech at such a volume the Presiding officer could not be heard three times instructing her to ask a question, Baillie ignored her instructions as all of the opposition parties always do
Apart from being the worst performing Presiding officer yet, Allison Johnson’s hair has become so long she’s disappearing underneath it and appears more and more like the Addams Family’s *THING* perhaps invisibility is what she’s going for to match her complete incompetence as the adjudicating umpire of proceedings
Although I did hear once rage with anger when she whispered that she was *disappointed* the opposition wouldn’t shut up and obey the rules (forceful eh)
Or was it “Cousin IT” ? something from a comedy anyway
I thought Kate Forbes handled FMQs very well. Competent, measured, well informed and confident. Not shouty like the demented opposition. Well done.
We have not had a true Scottish poll – specifically IPSOS telephone – since January, but one of the reasons I have for imagining it won’t look different, with a healthy SNP lead, is this:
IPSOS saw ‘the drop’ too, but they still have the SNP at the same level UK-wide as just ahead of 2019’s 45%.
They are as a rule more accurate as they use fully random sampling, actively contacting voters, not asking these to come to them like panel polls do. Also squeeze the don’t knows.
3.8% based on population share is 45%. They were spot on for Scotland 2019 even in their UK wide polls. Saw it coming through the whole term when English pollsters were consistently saying as low as 36%.
From all UK polls, I have these change so far since the GE announcement:
+4.1% SNP (Scotland)
+0.5% Lab
+0.4% Ref
-0.1% Lib
-0.3% Con
% SNP change comes from correcting for population share. So all regular UK polls do agree with MRP on SNP trend. And there is a good match with the few Scots polls we had, outliers aside.
A little uptick in certain to vote levels in the newest UK polls out is favouring SNP and has taken Labour down 0.4% UK-wide.
However, the only movement I am picking up that may not be noise is to the SNP.
If Starmer becomes PM on an unprecedented low turnout he’ll simply claim that more voters voted for him than ever voted for Sunak (or Truss). And carry on regardless. Move on – nothing to see here.
As previously noted, that is exactly what wins us our independence in 2026, so we should all hope he reacts this way if he wins on a really low turnout and ‘just carries on’.
Remember, the public will know all about the mass boycott to delegitimise regime, as it would be them behind it.
England having soldiers play the pipes at the Normandy remembrance events while telling everyone how ‘soldiers from the UK died to give us the free democracy we enjoy’.
What they don’t say is ‘except if you are Scots / Welsh / Irish N. Irish‘. Then John Bull says England owns your countries and no you don’t get the democracy we promise when we force to the front to preserve our empire.
Labour are going to cut £40billion, there’s no getting around it, all the financial commentators say the same thing
The question is when will they start and who will they start with? they can’t keep lying their way out of this
Can anyone even imagine a reason Ross would want to stand for election as an MP anyway since he is already guaranteed a position at every election as an MSP through the list vote system?
Does he just want to hang on to the income from two jobs as well as his third job as a referee? I think everyone should be banned from being both an MP and MSP, they should be made to choose between one and the other no exceptions.
Man, too many polls too quickly!
Was ‘oh!’ at a 5% SNP UK-wide from IPSOS, now BMG has followed up with 4%. These have been very rare since ‘the drop’. Straws in the wind? If they keep coming then aye. But two swallows etc…
Also, hmm, Labour going backwards maybe post debate? Add in the flurry tonight and well maybe…
Changes on pre-election. Labour did seem to go up a point, but that’s gone.
+4.8% SNP (Scotland)
+1.0% Ref
-0.1% Lab
-0.1% Lib
-0.1% Grn
-0.4% Con
UK turnout projection has hit a new high of 51.5%, and it seems to the benefit of SNP and Reform on respective sides of the border.
We shall see.
But maybe some green shoots.
‘Forecaster’ polls have the SNP up 6 pts in Scotland since the GE was announced. 38% as of last night, with Green and Alba on top. 44% combined, so now 2% shy of 2019.
Due to a small rise in certain to vote, notably in Scotland.
I don’t keep a close track on these things and just presumed Douglas Ross had won the selection over some other candidate. But in fact the Tories sacked David Duguid, the incumbent of the predecesspr constituency on medical grounds (recovering from a spinal infection), just to install Ross.
1). The Tories are absolutely vile
2). So is Ross to actually take the candidacy, if he had even the slightest decency as a human being he’d have turned it down with disgust.
Vile.
what can you expect he is after all a Scottish Conservative Unionist Member or SCUM for the shortened version
I always have to laugh at both BBC Scotland and STV news when they interview the ordinary people in the street and present them to the viewer as though the three or so people interviewed were the first few folk knocking around the street and here’s what they said, instead of being truthful and saying the broadcasters have been there all day asking umpteen folk to speak to them, being turned down by most of them then editing the only ones they could use to make their point
Most ordinary normal folk when approached in the street by journalists sticking microphones in their faces immediately say “No thanks” some will say “Effoff” some just scuttle past as quickly as possible, and guess what’s left ? the really *not* ordinary folk or people who have sod all else to do
Ordinary people on TV eh, the news broadcasters mini reality shows
Watching QT, which is not something I do often. I get the vibe that the audience are a fed up with politicians. The Tory is being chuckled at, he looks like he has lost the will to live, the Labour spokesperson has only a couple of messages, Tories are awful and we won’t tax anyone. The question on what are my Brexit bonuses left Labour floundering and the Tory leaping down a Brexiteer bunker.
The Green and Plaid peeps are a lot more forthright about the problems facing people.
My gut feeling is that Labour will either disappoint in power badly or will have to raise taxes. The PM may have made his numbers up and flew by the seat of his pants on the instinct that Labour will need dosh to deliver. Of course growth and borrowing will play a part it isn’t all taxation but money will be required…”a whole lotta a spending money, it’s gonna take plenty of money, to do it right child”
The Labour policy of raising cash to fund 6,500 teachers by putting VAT on private schools is interesting. What if lots of the just about affording private education decide to put their kids in a state school? Thus not paying VAT but increasing teacher requirement? They must be very confident in their demand elasticity curve for private education.
PS Fiona Bruce said John Swinney, Starmer, Sunak and Davey will be on a QT special in two weeks and next week will be from Edinburgh. I wonder if the Larkhall Loyal chap has been sent his ticket yet.
Wonder if dear old Nigel will be invited back after last week when it seems he was very upset that Fiona B had the gall, the nerve, to interrupt him with ‘incorrect facts’. He was demanding an apology from both her and the BBC. Who does she think she is interrupting him when she wouldn’t dare do it to anyone else? It’s not as if he’s thon Essempee. My heart fair goes out to him, so it does.
I might even watch that one.
Although I have to ask, if the other 3 are all WM ‘leaders’, why John Swinney and not Stephen Flynn?
I suspect they think Mr Swinney’s mild, non-confrontational manner means he’ll be a pushover, whereas they’re (to use an inelegant expression!) bricking it at Stephen Flynn’s more… direct style.
I admit that, at one time, I might have wondered if they were right. Since I’ve seen more of JS’s interactions I’m increasingly impressed.
It’ll be interesting to see how he deals the interruptions.
And they can’t borrow it from George Harrison either
I’m not the greatest fan of Richard Murphy- I think from a very sound beginning he got into left-wing stuff, like land tax, which has no place in an impartial view over the likes of GERS where he made his name. But I recommend this article, if you ignore his political election meanderings, the bit which goes back to those basics:
https://archive.is/5j0vJ
for instance:
“However, as I have long argued, this relies on the assumptions made by those compiling these statistics as to the expenditure made “for” Scotland which is included in GERS, as opposed to that actually spent “in” Scotland.
The expenditure “for” Scotland is added to that spent “in” Scotland, with the tax paid on that expenditure “for” but not “in” Scotland being ignored when estimating the supposedly matching revenue figure for Scotland.
This has always inevitably, and I suggest deliberately, produced a figure for the supposed subsidy provided to Scotland that is overstated in terms of the deficit.“
It’s “accruals” I think, and I remember being very pleased someone had at last come up with this. And expecting it would be seized on and carried forward.
The Unionist argument against is that the UK spends money in Scotland that is for the benefit of the UK but where taxation is credited to Scotland. Like the HMRC offices in East Kilbride, ummm, and that empty building in Edinburgh. But if that were all true, why would the treasury not work out and provide data that the GERS team could use to improve their offering? Answers on a postcard to “It’s the UK, stupid, we’re all one country”. Mmmmm.
Anyways, Forbes showed an interest in modelling sample finances for iScotland. and I hope she manages to get this done as soon as possible.
Scotland pays for the military £1Billion too much. Trident and redundant weaponry. Contracts never completed. Redundant. New contracts started up. Never completed. 180,000 military personnel. 10,000 based in Scotland. 8,000 short. Illegal wars, financial fraud and tax evasion.
Scotland has to make repayments on debts not borrowed or spent in Scotland. Hinkley Point, HS2, Brexit a waste of £Billions. Scotland has to pay for Westminster bureaucracy. All the highly paid jobs based in London. Along the Mall vast Gov offices. Scotland has to pay for London subsidised transport. Total congestion.
Scotland raises £87Billion. Gets £40Billion block Grant. Scotland spends £54Billion. + Pension/benefits?
Westminster Gov raises £731Billion in UK revenues/taxes. Spends £1090Billion. Westminster spends £13Billion a year decommissioning nuclear. Over ten years £130Billion. Increasing all the time.
Westminster supports tax evasion. Loses £Billions. Scotland in surplus in fuel and energy pays more. VAT raised in Scotland is under estimated.
UK EU contribution was £2Billion.
£12Billion but most of it came back. Nearest biggest, market. Shared Defence costs, CAP payments. Grants and loans for renewables etc. Cost Scotland nothing. Gained benefits.
UK Gov whole Accounts. 2020/21. New Accounts soon.
£270Billion spent funding Covid over two years. Much of it was wasted. Mone etc.
Here are a people that have true respect for the Scots and the sacrifice they made to bring freedom and democracy to Europe; something that England did not do even if its soldiers thought that was what they were fighting for.
England did not bring freedom and democracy to Ireland with WW1 just like it resisted freedom and democracy across its empire. Hilter’s imperialism was a threat to England’s, so that’s why Scots were sent to die in foreign fields that will be forever Scotland, not ‘England’ as the Prince of England said.
Freedom and democracy was only partially restored in Scotland, N. Ireland and Wales in 1997. Now England is rolling all that back, denying Scots – including those that that fought in WWII – the right to freely choose the best form of government that suits them.
https://electricscotland.com/france/degaulle.htm
Speech delivered by General de Gaulle at Edinburgh, 23rd June 1942
I do not think that a Frenchman could have come to Scotland at any time without being sensible of a special emotion. Scarcely can he set foot in this ancient and glorious land before he finds countless natural affinities between your country and ours dating from the very earliest times. In the same moment, awareness of the thousand links, still living and cherished, of the Franco-Scottish Alliance, the oldest alliance in the world, leaps to his mind...
…We live at a time when every friendship counts, especially those which have lasted longest. That which you extend to us in the difficult task my comrades and I have undertaken affords comforting proof that, like your forefathers, you know where the real France stands and you have kept your faith in her future. We, like our forefathers, will know how to repay.
And that is why, in thanking you for the truly touching reception which you have given me here, I close by quoting the old motto of the Compagnie écossaise: Omni modo fidelis.
While the la Marseillaise is rather imperialist itself, France has moved on, unlike England. It moves on when Scotland, Wales and the North of Ireland come home to the world.
Stirring:
https://x.com/AlexTaylorNews/status/1798763086054359387
Far more my anthem through my wife than GSTK ever will be. The latter is the anthem of the crumbling empire that subjugates my people while pretending to believe in freedom and democracy.
The Wiki wobble picking up the Labour downturn.
As you can see, the NET loss is to Reform. Con are holding steady.
It’s small so far, but it seems Labour went up to around 23% of the total electorate, up 1% on 2019, bosting them by similar VI wise, but then stalled. Now certain to vote / turnout projection is starting to edge up, but they’re not gaining from it, so going behind by standing still on the same number of absolute voters.
As previously noted, early days, but it’s the SNP and Reform who seem to be gaining from the certain to vote rise that’s emerging. Fingers cross for the SNP.
This would hardly be a surprise if it does happen. The two cheeks of the same erse are very unappealing, and this would push voters to alternatives on both sides of the border. Voters know an SNP vote isn’t wasted under FPTP these days. In England, if Reform surges, it may be voters figure the same could be apply to them too.
English nationalism is on the rise, and there’d be no saving the union in the face of that. Lids can be kept on Scottish, Welsh, Irish N. Irish nationalism to varying extents. Not possible with English nationalism. When the St. George’s cross is raised, the UK’s over. Roll on the Euros.
If you wanted to save the union, making the leader’s debate an entirely English affair was a really stupid thing to do, particularly with this reemphasised through a Scottish leaders debate, i.e. Scotland is a separate country. Our GE debate is separate… Scottish not British etc. The SNP want Scotland excluded from the union, and England excluded it here. Sweet.
It may have marked a symbolic turning point in campaigns.
The UK offers nothing to Scots / Welsh / N. Irish voters; it’s all about England, was the message conveyed to respective electorates. Great way to KO campaigns.
Personally, I still am off the belief that the UKSC case fatally wounded the union. When England did the same to Ireland, overruling their election vote for indy, the union with Ireland died.
Yes has risen steadily since the UKSC case and Sturgeon being forced from office, even with the SNP ‘drop’. I believe these events set something in motion that we are yet to see the full impact of. They suddenly created polling that is full of contradictions and clear nonsense, and, as continually emphasised, a massive swath of silent Yes + SNP 2011/15/16/19/21.
We may soon see what the events of late 2022 / early 2023 truly did. It has not had Scots come home to Labour / the union, that is for sure, much as polling has fooled the naïve into believing so. It seems to have pushed Scots notably to Yes though. So what about the vehicle for that? We shall see.
Having been reading Richard Murphy’s blog and the comments which the led to revising this article for publication in the National https://archive.ph/N0aY0 ” One key question should dominate the General Election in Scotland ” is timely….
Rishi Sunak apologises for skipping the D day events, and if anyone took a look at his wife’s face they’d know why
Mrs Sunak was as bored and annoyed at having to be somewhere she clearly had no interest in being as could be, her face was painted on as stiff as a board in as fake a smile as ever I’ve seen on any woman who would rather be anywhere else on the planet than stuck there at that moment
Not Mrs Sunak’s idea of a good time at all
No profit to be made.
im thinking sunak is an agent planted in the tory party to scupper them at the election.
surely no one is really that gaffe prone and after all the previous gaffes would be extra special careful.
no edit
or he is like a disgruntled employee who has decided to sabotage his employer. By doing as much as he can to ruin the tory partys chances.
rumour was before election they (1922 comittee) were getting close to enough letters for a leadership challenge.
is sunak being spiteful to his party, perhaps?
No, hes just not very good a politics
Yet he beat Starmer in the TV debate lol. Says it all.
That’s not politics that’s being able to spout sound bites for 45 seconds. Politics is not getting your main attack line debunked and turned on you within less than a day. Or leaving D Day events for an interview, or making such a hash of the apology for leaving D Day event that it makes it worse, or screwing up your campaign to such an extent that you will probably end up 3rd in a poll over the upcoming poll, all with in less of a week.
No, you are right, it’s not politics.
Politics is winning people to your cause; one you deeply believe in. This is something Starmer has utterly failed to do if polls are correct, and that’s because he has no principles nor clear cause, other than winning.
It’s just while Starmer stood still, holding Labour’s 2019 absolute voter numbers, Sunak has haemorrhaged Tory 2019. Well not so much him but all the Tory broken promises around brexit etc.
I sense you don’t want to believe me about the low turnouts, but polls do say a turnout of 51% right now, which would mean Labour having not won anyone over since 2019 net.
However, turnout projections normally rise ahead of elections, often very sharply. Can shoot up 10% in a week or so. Maybe labour will gain with this. I am not calling Scotland, so won’t even try to call a foreign country that is England!
It’s just risen 0.5% UK-wide after the debate, which is sharp even if still dismal, so we may have now entered the true campaign period where the electorate know they must now start to decide what they are going to do. As part of this, you see them engage with pollsters in a way they don’t do mid term. That previously ignored email from Yougov starts to get a response etc.
I have seen similar polling situations before, and they tend to produce large changes very quickly.
I think he just wants to hasten the day when he can jet off to California for good.
He’s not in it to make himself super rich, unlike Starmer.
No, Sunak wants to make himself mega rich.
Unrepresentative sampling polling contradiction fun of the day.
While Scots have been supposedly ‘coming home to Labour’ in a pollster that’s favouring them considerably due to oversampling as a result of silent SNP, the considerably more pro-union sample has been increasingly saying the prospect of a Labour government will make the more likely to vote for independence.
Try to digest the comical contradiction this is. Scotland coming home to Labour while being increasingly repulsed by them at the same time. It seems like nonsense because t is. No SNP have come home to Labour at all NET. That we know for sure.
The pattern is perfectly possible to explain by a simple combination of Labour oversampling, causing them to appear to being doing better, albeit it on desperately low turnout projections, while English right-wing Labour is pushing more traditionally unionist Scots to indy. Job done. The pattern is real. Labour is not growing in popularity, it is pushing Scots to yes, hence Yes hitting record levels in Lab 2019/21.
You can see how post early 2023 SNP drop, Labour was really putting Scots off the union. This then lessened because the Labour oversampling began to peaked, with turnouts hitting a record low. So the fall back late 2023 isn’t real, it’s cause by the heaviest SNP under sampling of the series. But even that was not enough to stop the downward spiral for the union though. Hence Yes up in polls over the period even with everything possible against it sampling wise.
If SNP were not being undersampled, that ‘more likely’ number would probably be upper 20’s not lower. The less likely would be smaller by contrast.
So the polling picture looks bad for the unionists right now, but it may be far, far worse. We will only know if our 11% silent, but previously regularly voted SNP voters, stop being silent and start speaking to pollsters and/or turning out to vote.
Schrodinger’s polling.
Scotland coming home to labour and the union while leaving them at the same time.
Aye, solid positive correlation with Labour VI and Scots saying they are more likely to vote for indy if Labour wins.
Tie yourself in knots or just smile as this is simply Labour not having won anyone over, and in fact driving Scots away from the union.
But silent SNP inflates their VI on a low turnout.
Polling is a disaster for the union. Total disaster in all but one factor, VI. And that is a turnout mirage.
Again, I cannot predict what will happen, but the evidence says if the silent SNP turnout, even in modest numbers, it will not be good for the union.
The unionists are pushing their own voters away, causing them to warm to Swinney and Yes. So what might be happening to silent SNP as they get on with things in the background?
Looking closely and doing some smoothing, the small rise in certain to vote / turnout levels UK-wide does seem to have been triggered by the English leader’s debate. Turnout projection up 0.5% to 51.3% on average.
I suppose this would be an event which might get people to go ‘ok, need to start making a decision and I will maybe tune in or catch the highlights etc‘.
You only needed 5 mins to decide whether you liked the look of either. For Scots, instantly you see Scotland completely excluded from English poltics. ‘Scots not wanted – shut up and by ruled by the English’ was the clear message.
As noted, this rise is going to SNP and Reform so far, on respective sides of the border.
Could you clarify your assertion upthread that Labour were leading the polls in Scotland in the run-up to the 2015 GE? According to Wikipedia the SNP were well ahead of Labour in every poll throughout 2015
The were leading most of the term.
For 4 years, Labour were going to win the 2015 election, quite possibly by a landslide. 2011 was a fluke. Scots were coming home to Labour.
Only the iref campaign caused polls to start being representative as the electorate engaged. They did not disengage after like they have for the past year+.
If you want to suggest Scots voted 45% SNP in 2011, then went back to the union / Labour, then came back to the SNP and indy in 2014, I’m all ears as to why they did this yo-yoing.
Rather, I think UKGE polling was completely wrong for 4 years – which it was as you can see – and the outcome of the 2011 result foretold 2015.
SNP and yes steadily gained support throughout the 2011-2014 period, and there was no retreat in actual support. It’s just folks went back to normal life, ignoring pollster emails. Then when they reengaged, reality showed up.
This isn’t radical thinking, it’s totally normal in polling.
We will only get representative samples when the electorate engages. That is when turnout projections shoot up.
Right now in Scotland, we have 57% predicted, with 11% of the 2019 turnout disengaged. All SNP voters.
see the 7 way debate includes farage..why?
if he is on should Salmond not be on, as Alba gained seats similarly by defeftions as reforms single seat
The two biggest stories of today are Sunak’s stupidity in consciously making a decision not to attend the memorial service for the 80th anniversary of the D-day landings in France. It’s hard to believe that he was unaware of the stushie this would cause when even the President of the US decided it was important enough that he should be there to represent those that died that day who were US citizens.
There is no excuse for this despite what you may think about the event itself, in fact there are millions of voters who would say that it is the Prime Minister of the UK’s responsibility to attend such events whether they care or not.
I do not believe this action could possibly be a mistake by someone tired or distracted by other important events such as the election. I think it’s simply that he doesn’t give a f**k, he’s had it as PM and knows he is beaten so why not move it along. Sunak has just cost the Tories any sympathy vote that might have remained in Scotland for his party.
The next biggest story is Ross throwing sitting MP Duguid under a bus while he lies ill in a hospital bed. He has obviously become accustomed to the good life on the three salaries he earns as an MSP, MP and referee which must bring in close to £200,000 a year plus expenses as well of course. It’s obvious to me that he too doesn’t give a f**k about the people he is supposed to be representing either, just like his boss.
Both these events are unsurprising because that’s how these people always behave, it’s built into their DNA to care for nothing other than their own self interest and bank balance.
I’m glad they have done this as nobody could fail to have noticed just exactly what these people actually represent and that is all that is wrong not just in the UK but around the world. These people are leeches and parasites literally sucking the blood of those they are supposed to represent. It will be good riddance and I just wish that neither of them will be an MP after the coming election.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-69098963
Posted at 18:21 BREAKING
Labour’s biggest union backer refuses to endorse manifesto
Iain Watson, Political correspondent
Unite, Labour’s biggest trade union backer, has refused to endorse the party’s general election manifesto, saying it does not go far enough on protecting workers’ rights and jobs in the oil and gas industry.
Union leaders were at a meeting on Friday to finalise the party’s 2024 election platform ahead of its launch next week.
The BBC understands that at the meeting Unite announced they would not endorse Labour’s plans.