We’re only just over a week into the Westminster general election campaign and it is already unfolding in a drearily predictable way with the SNP being marginalised, Labour spouting hollow promises of ‘change’ that it has no intention of realising and the Tories losing what little plot they once possessed. The Scottish Tories are being the cynical morally bankrupt opportunists that we’ve come to know and loathe, basing their campaign for a Westminster general election on trying to get an SNP MSP evicted from the Scottish Parliament. This is of course not unrelated to the fact that the Tories have only one policy for Scotland, “we’ll do whatever we are told by a Conservative government in Westminster.”
Despite, or more precisely because of, this the Tories have campaigned on the sole issues of trying to get Michael Matheson to resign from Holyrood and hating on the SNP. Precisely how voting for a Conservative MP to represent a Scottish constituency at Westminster is going to get Michael Matheson to resign the Tories have not explained. That’s because they know the issue of Michael Matheson is utterly irrelevant to a Westminster government and they are insulting the intelligence of the voters by pretending otherwise.
Their willing accomplices in this deceit is the anti-independence media in Scotland, which reports on the Scottish Tory anti-Matheson campaign without ever calling it out for the cynical opportunism and performative SNP bad that it really is.
The truth is that the Tories are a busted flush, their UK campaign has been even more dire and dismal than that of Douglas Ross and his girning band of we’re not nationalists we’re British. Ross intends to marshal the diehard opponents of Scottish independence to rescue the Conservatives in Scotland from the well deserved electoral decimation which assuredly awaits them in the rest of the UK. With the connivance of the anti-independence media in Scotland and tactical voting from the staunch brigade, Ross may very well succeed in saving some seats for Scottish Tory MPs which would otherwise have been lost, and deservedly so.
The SNP is struggling to get its voice heard in this election campaign and is faced with two British nationalist parties which shamelessly conflate Holyrood and Westminster issues and are aided and abetted by the Scottish media in doing so. Already the SNP has been excluded from the first televised leaders’ debate due to be broadcast on ITV on 4 June. The debate will be a head to head between Starmer and Sunak with no other parties present. The debate will also be broadcast on STV, even though in Scotland this election is not primarily a contest between Labour and the Conservatives.
This is a presidential style debate but the UK does not have a presidential system. The UK is – in theory at least – a parliamentary democracy. However when it suits them the leaders of the Labour and Conservative parties like to pretend that Britain does have a presidential system even as they vigorously resist any attempt to reform the House of Commons and place the checks, balances, and restrictions on the power of the head of government that a real presidential system entails.
As such this debate is another step in the debasement of politics under the Westminster system and a signal that for all his talk of ‘change’ Keir Starmer represents nothing of the sort. The announcement of the debate comes after report in The Guardian newspaper last week which said Labour had “demanded” that the other parties be excluded from TV debates. There’s respect for democracy for you. Respecting democracy is a change that would be very welcome in the UK, but it’s not a change that Keir Starmer is interested in delivering.
Labour is very keen to frame this election as a straight fight between Sunak and Starmer as they see this as being to their electoral benefit. It allows Starmer to concentrate on winning over former Tory voters in Leave supporting seats in England while avoiding attacks from the left from the SNP on topics like the two child benefit cap or renationalisation, as well as having the additional benefit of ensuring that there is no risk of criticism over Starmer’s stance on Gaza.
It also has the ‘benefit’ of ignoring half of Scotland, don’t expect either Sunak or Starmer to lose any sleep over that.
The SNP can still turn this election around, the way to do that is to focus on the lies and mendacity of the Labour party, not by trying to use this election in order to turn Scotland into a Tory free zone in terms of Westminster representation. The Tories are not going to win this election, the real threat to Scotland and the powers of Holyrood comes from Starmer’s Anglo-British nationalist Labour party.
Labour’s promise of change is hollow. It is the latest and greatest of Starmer’s many lies. The SNP can still turn this election in their favour by attacking Labour from the left and by highlighting that left wing and socially progressive policies are only possible with independence, Labour’s pivot to the right proves that Westminster has been captured by Conservative policies.
Labour has no plans to change the undemocratic and unfair Westminster Parliament. The very last thing Starmer wants is for MPs to have real power to hold him to account. A Starmer government will not undo Brexit or the worst excesses of the past fourteen years of Conservative rule. Starmer will open the NHS in England up to private healthcare companies, which risks knock on effects on the NHS in Scotland.
Starmer’s flagship energy policy, unveiled in Glasgow on Friday, was quickly revealed as yet another of his many lies. The publicly owned Great British Energy he has vowed to set up is not in fact an energy company. It will not produce or sell energy. It is an ‘investment vehicle’ which will channel public money to the private sector.
Earlier this week, Anas Sarwar was promising us that GB Energy would be a publicly owned company that would generate and sell renewable energy – like the publicly owned energy companies that are common throughout Europe – and would create 70,000 jobs in Scotland. But Starmer has now torpedoed these plans with yet another right wing U turn, once again confirming the irrelevance of the Labour branch office in Scotland to Labour decision-making in London.
Labour is a party which is a natural home for disaffected Conservative MPs, yet another Tory jumped ship to Labour on Thursday even as veteran left wingers like Diane Abbott were marginalised and excluded. All that Labour really promises is the more competent delivery of Tory nastiness and it is the Labour party and Starmer’s many lies and right wing pivots which should be the prime target for the SNP. Starmer lies about everything. Lying is not ‘change’.
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Is it even legal for broadcasting companies to run election debates that exclude the main party? I can understand it being broadcast in England. But surely beaming into Scottish and Welsh and NI homes must be breaking electoral law? A complaint to OFCOM and the Electoral Commission is in order.
I would like someone to complain to the polling council as well about Yougov who have a Party leaders favourability poll out today which does not include the SNP or Plaid Cymru.
This is totally out of order as both Green Party leaders in England are in the poll despite neither of them even being an MP.
Where this goes badly wrong is that the Yougov poll canvasses Scottish and Welsh voters as well who do not have the choice to pick an SNP or Plaid leader so are forced to choose a English party leader or answer don’t know which distorts the result for the Scottish and Welsh sub-samples.
This is not an issue for Sein Fein or the DUP as Yougov are NOT polling there so the result cannot be distorted as it does not apply to Northern Ireland.
We’re at Banana Republic levels now. Witch hunt the most popular party through media smears and police investigations, hold TV debates which exclude them and run opinion polls as if they didn’t exist.
Not a democracy.
This is all very typical of British nationalism, one minute they declare the UK as a union of countries the next they insist it’s all one country, depending on the message of the day and towards whom that message is directed
When both Labour and Tory are in England they proclaim that we are all one great country, because they know that in England very few folk think any differently about that one way or the other, they’re used to the titles of UK GB British Britain England all being the same place and are overall quite comfortable with the many iterations of their identity as all of these groups meaning one thing, such propaganda over time having been so effective as to have even bled into the psyche of the rest of the world that being UK British means all of us in this one country made easier to think about, or not to have to think about
When the British politicians *travel* to Scotland and Wales (notice they travel) in special campaign transport vehicles they carry the British media with them, and when they arrive at their destinations in our countries of Wales and Scotland they are to be met with a fanfare of welcome by the *locals* and the *local media* who are the same media that they bring along with them (British media because there is no other kind available and if there were they wouldn’t talk to them anyway because they don’t have to)
And then when in Scotland and Wales these British politicians who the day before would speak about their one great country while in England, change tactics and talk about our countries as being *part* of their one great country of UK GB Britain, y’see we aren’t actual British in Wales and Scotland, we are a part of this great state
What British politicians never ever say while in England is that England is a part of the UK, because to say that in England would be tantamount to a crime, as those folk believe as previously referenced that England is the UK GB and Britain therefore cannot under any circumstances just be a *part* of the whole
Scotland and Wales are the *parts*
This is where the opposition and media come in when they accuse everyone else of being anti English, when in fact it’s more likely that more folk in Scotland Wales and Ireland are anti British, but the English in their ignorance prosecute this as an insult to them because they believe in all of the above that England holds all the titles and identity to this wee tiny collection of islands in the middle of the sea and that Wales Scotland and Ireland are *parts* of their domain
Mention the word ignorance and the offence begins, because the offended has redefined the meaning of the word ignorance to mean outrageous insult, and not just a comment on the lack of knowledge of a certain subject
Perhaps the title of a book? How to teach ignorance to the British by every UK British government since time began
best thing everyone can do in Scotland is ignore the TV debates and dont watch them.
Ratings will show that the 2 parties are irrelevant to Scotland.
At least 20% of households in Scotland will be ignoring them since they no longer have a TV licence. This year only 1.9 million from 2.4 million have a licence to watch live TV.
This year saw the biggest drop yet in a single year since 2014 with 50,000 choosing not to renew funding of the BBC which works on the behalf of Westminster for only half of Scotland. That’s 1000 households every week in Scotland who are choosing dumping the BBC tax.
Don’t pay to be lied to by the mouthpiece of those that deny the people of Scotland democracy in this so called Union. Instead join the 20% of households in Scotland that no longer pay for the propaganda to be beamed into their living rooms.
If you do decide to dump your license then do it properly by going online and telling the BBC you no longer need a licence as you do not watch live TV or BBC iplayer. Just search Google for ” cancelling your TV licence”.
That way you will get no hassle or nasty letters through the post later and for at least 2 years. I cancelled mine in 2015 and have never had a single letter, just the one email asking me if my circumstances were still the same, that was it.
Corbyn knows what is going on in Starmer’s New Tory party.
Our ( sic ) media are doing their bit for the UK unionist parties by conflating the UK GE with a Holyrood election .
We are bombarded with the mantra that the Tories have been in Government for 14 years and that the SNP have been in power for 17 years – as if the two were somehow relevant .
The Scottish debate between the party leaders -JohnSwinney is the ONLY party leader who will be present – will be focused on the SNP’s time in Holyrood as the Scottish Government – totally irrelevant to a UK GE , but Colin MacKay and STV will not be pointing this out to the viewers .
I hope that the blowback from the Starmer Politburo antics over Diane Abbott and those other ‘dangerous ‘ left-wingers who are being eradicated from what passes as The Labour Party will cause enough real Labour supporters to question their voting intentions .
Starmer supported Jeremy Corbyn to the hilt during his time as leader , ‘though you couldn’t get him to admit that he even knows the man today ;
he ”pledged” a Wishlist of Labour Policies ( that Corbyn would have supported ) in order to get elected leader of the party – then ditched all except , perhaps , one ;
surrounded himself with a Shadow Cabinet that you could get from a Tory Poundshop , most of whom were supportive of Corbyn – until told by Starmer that he was persona non grata ;
he supported the Israeli War crime of cutting off water , fuel , food etc at the beginning (sic ) of the conflict in Gaza , live on LBC radio , then lied about doing so after seeing how public opinion was against him ;
he lied recently ( and repeatedly ) to the Press about the Dianne Abbott situation , implying that the ”NEC inquiry ” was on-going when it had been concluded in December 2023 …
One can only conclude from his public utterances that he is a man to be trusted – just like Boris Johnson or Donald Trump .
You won’t be surprised to hear that Starmer said today he would work with Trump as President even if he was convicted and his appeal fails whereas Sunak wouldn’t answer the question.
I think Starmer would work with anyone, even the most despicable right-wing dictator if he thought doing so would help him become PM and give him the power he craves.
I really don’t want to see such a man in power, he will say and do anything and has already shown that by U-turning on every commitment he has ever made.
People in Scotland voting Labour “for change” will have cause to regret it, I am certain of that.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-conviction-election-2024-keir-starmer-mel-stride-b1161251.html
I really don’t want to see such a man in power, he will say and do anything and has already shown that by U-turning on every commitment he has ever made.
If you want Scottish independence, then him in power is how you get it.
Starmer is the final nail in the union coffin. You should wish polls to stay exactly as they are. Would be nice for turnout in Scotland to pick up aiding the SNP, but it’s not particularly important. Our date with destiny will be through our own parliament in 2026. If turnout for the coming UK election is notably lower than for the historic record high of Holyrood 2021, then we know the Rubicon has definitely been crossed and which Parliament Scots now wish to rule them completely. When Holyrood voting takes precedent over Westminster, that’s it, union over. The people have chosen.
At the moment, polls predict a dire 55% total turnout in in Scotland for the UKGE, down to 1/3 of the electorate when you make a correct comparison with the rUK by excluding pro-indy voters.
Another day. Another Labour stitch up. Sigh.
New Labour stitch-up as top Starmer aide is imposed on Cardiff West (nation.cymru)
A key aide to Keir Starmer who led the drive to discipline party members accused of antisemitism has been imposed as Labour’s general election candidate in Cardiff West.
The decision to select Alex Barros-Curtis as the replacement for retiring MP Kevin Brennan has been greeted with anger by a member of the constituency Labour party who tipped off NationCymru about the imposition. They described it as “the latest stitch-up”.
Mr Barros-Curtis, who has no known connection to Cardiff or Wales, is UK Labour’s executive director of legal affairs.
[…]
Hope this sets off a stampede to vote Plaid
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/31/starmer-admits-he-flew-by-private-jet-to-clean-energy-jobs-rally-in-scotland
so no change from sunak, just private jet, instead of private helicopter.
if anything jet is likely more damaging than the helicopter.
He can’t wait to get his hands of on the Daimlers, private jets and all the other rich trappings that comes with the keys to No. 10.
His aim to is become a multi-millionaire like Blair before him.
The fundamental problem that Labour have in Scotland is their pretence that the UK is a single polity under Westminster.
Scotland and England have separate histories and cultures which can only be resolved into a single entity by one of these cultures and histories being ignored and subsumed by the other.
This election has exposed the reality of power in the UK where the party in Scotland which is supposed to represent working people has been subverted by England’s right wing culture and turned into just another neoliberal cabal in hock to the City.
Lies,deceit,secrecy and stealth the modus operandi of London based political parties.
The Labour or Conservative leader will *travel* to Scotland, Wales, OK then, from where? the UK?
British branch of the Scotch media: The Labour Tory leader will be *coming* to Scotland, Wow! are we all grateful that such men have spared us their time away from the big country of UK British London without their hats wae the Ostrich feathers in them to lecture us in the ways of the big world
You know, the one they voted in England to remove us from
Five years between general elections and *travelling* to Scotland or Wales for a couple of days out of five years is a big deal from their one country
An Englishman in a suit has always been far more important than a Scotsman in a suit, from the days when every manager, every regional manager of every company in Scotland was an Englishman in a suit
I once worked for Cuthbertsons the music company in Glasgow, then Littlewoods bought it over and promoted a security man from an English warehouse in Liverpool to the post of General Manager of a music company, within two years of that appointment Cuthbertsons closed
The man didn’t know the difference between a banjo and a piano, but he knew how to lock a door
England has always been good at closing stuff in Scotland, and if they build anything they do it with PFI cheap brick designed to fall down before we’ve paid the interest on the debt they borrowed
Starmer is one of those men in a suit coming to sell us his cheap brick and take our money then close us down
David Cameron another Englishman in a suit paid Youngs fish processors from Annan to relocate to Grimsby then blamed the SNP for failing to retain Scottish businesses
Any vote for a so called British political party is utter madness, England has little choice, Scotland and Wales do
As far as I’m concerned, the SNP’s target should be Independence Independence Independence. But it is possible I’m not the typical voter these weird days.
Meanwhile, a comment btl on the Diane Abbott article:
“If she doesn’t stand as an independent socialist candidate then she is just a sell out, …“
Nonsense, she IS the Labour party.
What the rest of it is these right wing days days I don’t know, nobody does.
OT – I’ve been reading the report of the Scottish Parliament Corporate Body into the complaint against Michael Matheson. It reads like a complete witch hunt riddled with bias and spite. Some of the letters of complaint in the annexe are despicable though they do not say who wrote them. Demented lunar modules fuelled by hate and venom perhaps.
Anyway – off to rinse out my mind with something more wholesome.
Here’s the link in case you’re not yet angry enough at the unionist trolls circling the wagons.
https://digitalpublications.parliament.scot/Committees/Report/SPPAC/2024/5/23/0af09f4e-f347-4b31-8b31-46023eb3bc59?utm_campaign=eBulletin+31+May+2024&utm_content=news.parliament.scot&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Scottish+Parliament+Corporate+Body&wp-linkindex=14#Introduction
Ooch.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2024/05/with-five-weeks-to-go-less-than-half-of-voters-have-made-up-their-minds/
Asked to choose from a list of words that much describe the main party leaders, voters were most likely to select “out of touch” for Sunak, followed by “out of his depth” and “doesn’t listen”. For Starmer, the most popular choices were “dull”, “indecisive” and “out of touch”. The most positive choices were “determined” for Sunak (chosen by 12%) and “competent” for Starmer (21%).
Do we get a choice of “Don’t know”
“Don’t know” would be rather damning, wouldn’t it? So close to the GE it would be quite the judgement.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2024/05/it-may-feel-like-a-foregone-conclusion-but-the-result-could-yet-be-closer-than-many-expect/
It may feel like a foregone conclusion, but the result could yet be closer than many expect
…But with only 8% of 2019 Tories (let alone anyone else) saying they are satisfied with the current government, it’s hardly surprising that we find Labour with a 23-point lead. Does that mean Starmer has a huge majority in the bag? Not necessarily.
I found only 42% of people saying they had definitely decided how to vote. Those leaning towards Labour were the most likely to be sure of their intentions, but only two thirds of them said they were certain. Crucially, only just over half of those minded to switch from the Tories to Labour said they had reached a firm decision, and fully one in three of those who backed Boris in 2019 said they didn’t know how to vote or whether to vote at all.
In other words, though it may feel like a foregone conclusion, the next few weeks will make the difference between a Labour landslide and a result that is much closer than many expect.
Apparently Starmer paid £35 for the stock logo he flipped for the so-called British Energy Rich Dude Investment Company Gimme Gimme Gimme Taxpayers you Numpty Numbnums. He wiz robbed! He could have got this one for just £14.70:
https://www.vectorstock.com/royalty-free-vector/im-against-vector-25659616
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Energy
British Energy was established and registered in Scotland in 1995 to operate the eight most modern nuclear power plants in the UK. It took the two Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor (AGR) plants from Scottish Nuclear and five AGR and a sole pressurised water reactor (PWR) plant from Nuclear Electric.[5][6] The residual Magnox power stations from these two companies were transferred to Magnox Electric which later became the generation division of British Nuclear Fuels Ltd. The company was privatised in 1996.
Opened it closed it relocated it privatised it, the British English way
Meanwhile Sunak, in his determination to get the better of his identical twin Starmer, has promised to use Concorde 001 for his planned campaign flit from London to far north wasteland Hull up and under. When asked about the expected £1.2 billion recommissioning costs, Sunak ruefully said he’d have to do without his pocket money in June.
Macron was heard to giggle.
4-1 tae Scotland against Israel, Nice. Well done the ladies!
Another iñvestigation for Police Scotland
BBC News – Police ‘assessing’ new Michael Matheson iPad bill complaint
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c844gn9xwkjo
One wonders who made the complaint Douglas Ross or Anal Sarwar.
Both of them. Neither on their own is capable of filling out the complaint form.
Whoever made the complaint it is likely to backfire on them quite spectacularly. The man paid back the money, resigned as a Minister and has been disciplined via the Scottish Parliament’s own procedures thus there is no public interest being served by pursuing the matter. This is sheer vindictiveness and the majority of people will see it for that.
Same team that complained about Nicola Sturgeon, and guess who’s behind all that?
Wasting police time to grab a headline has Dross’s fingerprints all over it…….
It’s worth reading the SPCB report (I’ve linked above), tedious though it is, specially Michael Matheson’s own submission detailing events as he knew them.
For example, the SP’s tech support lied about getting in touch with EE to find out how the roaming charges had been accrued. They told him that EE didn’t respond but in fact it became clear that they hadn’t asked EE. So MM had no idea how he had clocked up those charges.
He was told to update the SIM card but the appointment to do that was cancelled. IT didn’t get back in touch for the next 13 months.
Someone from the investigation leaked it to the press causing MM and his family to be harassed by journalists outside his family home for months. This was why he hesitated for a week to tell parliament that it had been his sons who had used the data. Who leaked the information to the press?
This whole farrago needs to be investigated and probably MM is due an apology and the restoration of his salary. He already paid the £11,000 as soon as he realised what had happened.
I hadn’t read it but have now in regard to the SIM, which sheds an entirely different light to that the media have been shining on it – Granted that he could have pushed for the swap to be done, but given the apparent tardy approach of the IT department, there is no guarantee whatever it would have been done and the same situation would have developed..
It stinks, all of it..
majority of it departments in government from holyrood to councils to nhs are understaffed and over worked.
why blame them for this when they are under resourced.
I’m not, but do accept ‘tardiness’ was a poor choice of wording.
Yet your point does raise the interesting possibility of a stitchup before the instance even arose – All it takes is a nudge to a task here, or a re-prioritisation there, and the hapless victim is left holding the can for allowing his device to be used as a hotspot.
I’m not trying to exonerate Mathieson in the least, but it’s pretty damned clear there was very much more to it than the media pile-on portrayed.
I think your reading too much into it there.
IT tasks are all done from calls logged on the helpdesk system, everything is traceable now if anyone changes anything in or about the call.
Its like people who say moon landings were a hoax filmed by Kubrik.
as predator said shit happens…
It shows the crass shallowness of the opposition election campaigns that in seeking to elect Westminster MPs to deal with Westminster issues all they have to offer and talk about is a fairly minor mistake by a Holyrood MSP. Vindictive and unpleasant people.
However, they have set a very low bar for serious sanctions against MSPs, a bar that in future will topple some of their own.
Fact of the day. There will be no Alba MPs in 5 weeks according to polls. Nor will they split the vote. Current opposition oversampling means their 1% is likely an overestimating.
Expect Ash Regan to try and rejoin the SNP, voicing support for the hate crime bill and GRR.
All of the ship jumpers will now be kicking themselves that Salmond talked them into his “project SNP destructo”
AR only defected about six months ago when it was already clear Alba was going nowhere so she’s hardly a bandwagon jumper
BBC don’t have any Scottish newspaper front pages today. I wonder why. So here’s the National front page. The rest will likely be about Donald Trump.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd11dwpd9wwo
The article hints at it,but it is undeniable that the SNP has had shambolic start to the campaign. I am totally unclear what their message is and it bizarre that Swinney has spent so much political capital on defending (in a crack handed manner) the embarrassment of Mathison.
I would cut John Swinney some slack. He was elected leader on 7th May after a shock resignation by Humza Yousaf. Rishi Sunak announced election on 22nd May, out of the blue. Today is June 1st.
As for standing up for Michael Matheson, I think it shows he is a man of principle. Politicians should not be enabled to use the law to get rid of political opponents. It’s called “lawfare” in the US. It’s anti-democratic and it destroys public confidence in the judicial process. It’s Banana Republic territory.
Very true. Bias in any shape or form should never go unchallenged and there was one member of the standards committee who was clearly biased in regard to the Michael Matheson matter. Paul’s article is pointing out that Labour are the biggest threat to the election of Snp Mps and he is largely correct. However the amount of tactical voting that is being encouraged by unionists makes them really all a threat.Up here in Mid Dunbartonshire unionists are being encouraged to vote Lib Dem in an attempt to defeat the Snp candidate Amy Callaghan. The fact that Alba and the Greens are running in certain constituencies does not help situation for the Snp either. It will be interesting to see how the Snp campaign progresses
It was totally obvious at the beginning that Mathieson had been messed around AND give duff advice. But I guess he didn’t want to throw civil servants under the bus so took the fall. You’d think that the other MSPs would have understood that and been more reasonable, but they’re a load of asswipes.
And that’s all I have to say about that.
And as they say – BTDTGTTS
Current UK-wide turnout projection* is 51.7%, ergo zero popular democratic mandate for Starmer’s Labour.
There has been the teeniest of rises since the GE announcement, but it’s so gentle a linear projection only gives 55% on the day.
That means ‘Starmer most unpopular new PM in history with no mandate from the people‘ headlines, not least because any rise would likely go to Con.
If you plot CTV vs Con/Lab gap, the higher the turnout, the smaller the gap.
—
*UK Turnout = 0.91 x final poll Certain to Vote average based on recent elections. It’s a higher number for the rUK as these elections are England’s, so Scots less likely to turn out for them nowadays.
Similar pattern in England. The higher the certain to vote level, the lower Labour’s lead. More subdued though as the Tories are unpopular, unlike the SNP who are very popular, hence consistently topping leadership rankings even in polls heavily oversampling unionists.
This why Starmer openly admits ‘he and Labour are unpopular’, and that ‘he needs to win voters over’.
As you can see, your ‘Labour has massive 25 point lead over Con’ headlines are not mentioning the elephant in the room caveat that comes with that, i.e. it means no Labour mandate as turnout would be desperately low, possibly down to 45%.
Aaron Bastani of Novara Media discussing why the Great British Energy Company won’t work. But hey! It’ll be based in Scotland.
Labour and Tory both committed to building lots of small toxic nuclear power stations in Scotland too. What have we done to deserve such bounty?
https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2024/06/01/alister-jack-and-labours-commitment-to-building-new-small-modular-reactors-in-scotland-ignores-research-revealing-their-greater-toxic-waste-production-and-thus-cancer-risk/
Aye, Starmer is right, we could not be further from 1997. Back then the turnout was 71% and Labour were actually quite popular, with Blair’s ratings comfortably positive to Starmer’s strongly negative. Blair still lost 10 points compared to polls on the day.
I’m completely underwhelmed by the lack of fight coming from the SNP leadership. This GB Energy is the biggest sham going, yet Labour are getting a totally free ride presenting it as a “publically owned energy provider”, when it’s nothing of the sort.
It’s a private investment vehicle siphoning taxpayer money into “research” while providing private equity firms with a copper-bottomed return on their “investment” and it should be getting called out as such loudly by the SNP.
Perhaps you missed this from yesterday?
John Swinney issues warning over Keir Starmer’s GB Energy plans
FIRST Minister John Swinney expressed confusion over Keir Starmer’s Great British Energy plans as he warned Labour’s proposals will lead to a “significant” loss of jobs in the north east of Scotland.
The Labour leader appeared to dramatically scale back plans for a “home-grown energy company” in Scotland as he admitted it would only be an “investment vehicle” to pump money into the private sector.
https://archive.ph/vE3Ri
And this:
Business confidence in Scotland rises to become highest in UK
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24359870.business-confidence-scotland-rises-become-highest-uk/
It’s PFI scheme to use Scots taxes to subsidies the private sector in England and English domestic bills.
Bluntly it’s yet another smokescreen on top of all the others to the UK’s underlying problem over energy, the greed of the Treasury and keeping energy providers onside.
I’d posted comment to John Robertson’s article ” Alister Jack and Labour’s commitment to building new small modular reactors in Scotland ignores research revealing their greater toxic waste production and thus cancer risk ” earlier – ” Note that yet again, energy generation and energy security are the preferred narrative with energy efficiency being shoved into a dark corner – I know I keep banging on about this but with annual leccy at 300 quid and gas at 300 quid and -16 winters, I’ve good reason to look at UK energy policy as totally bass ackward…
Even were a meagre 50% saving to be made on power consumption, the ripple effect would be enormous – Lower consumer bills, grid bottlenecks removed, energy imports slashed, etc., etc..
This bizarre obsession of both UK political parties to create SMRs and farm them all over the country advances absolutely nothing…”
You only need at european interconnects from Scotland to realise what London has been engineering, England the power gateway to Europe…
Then when they theatrically “bow to public pressure” and invoke a ‘national energy conservation strategy’, they are quids in with SMRs all over the shop in competitive maintenance contracts, and the Treasury makes a bundle on export taxes whilst the electorate are simply happy their bills have dropped…
I refer you to the video clip posted by Capella upthread for a glimpse on the total absurdity of what Labour are proposing from a business perspective, what’s missing is the overview.
I’ve long been opposed to ‘marketisation’ of monopoly utilities, and even EU have finally woken up after the ‘energy crisis’ to the dangers they didn’t consider, Thatcher’s concept was a trap, dependency and market manipulation are inevitable…
Hardly surprising Starmer proposes a Queen Elizabeth House emulation given it worked for the Tories, for a while, at huge cost to the tight ‘public purse’, rinse, repeat..
Within an hour of Starmer giving the game away as to the GB Energy sham, Stephen Flynn was tweeting this.
I really don’t know what you think the SNP can do before even a day has passed but you can be sure that this sham has not gone unnoticed and has been attacked by both the Westminster and Holyrood leaders of the SNP.
The fact that the BBC doesn’t give them a platform to get the message out to more people is a problem not of their making. They’re doing the best they can with the cards they have got but that will never be good enough for some.
So if we’re both agreed the BBC is part of the problem, then the BBC needs pulled into the argument, publically.
I haven’t agreed anything with you, this is the first time you have mentioned the BBC. You were wrong so now change the topic haha.
The last time Turnouts hit historic lows in Scotland was under Labour, the party of no hope of change. Of despondency. Of stay at home because nothing will get better no matter the song.
Holyrood 2021 exceeded and or matched (63.5%) these, marking the crossing of the Rubicon; Holyrood overtaking Westminster as the most important parliament to all in Scotland, not just the (self-identifying) Scots.
58.2% 2001
60.6% 2005
63.8% 2007
2001/2005 lead to the SNP winning holyrood in 2007. The Yes parties already were doing well by 2003, but the SNP got less of the share of Yes votes in the rainbow parliament.
2010 was an outlier. Wiki doesn’t have a graph for opinion poll data, but 2011 will suffice.
When you asked Scots in 2011-2015 how they voted in 2010, they tell you they gave the SNP a win of around 35%, with Labour 30%, exactly as per 2009 polls. Of course that didn’t happen, the SNP got 20% and Labour 40%. It totally messed up iref polling until pollsters listened to me (I’d love to think) and corrected, using 2011 weighing instead. 2011 was correctly recalled.
You see people don’t tell the truth to pollsters. It may be false recall, confusion about what election is being asked about or, most commonly, porkie pies.
In 2010, a lot of SNP voters voted Labour or Lib in a desperate attempt to stop the Tories. It was a last minute hold their nose decision, and one they bitterly regretted as it failed. So they told pollsters who they’d supported, not who they voted. That was SNP.
Now here we are in 2014 and people are lying to pollsters again. They are either lying in that they voted SNP2019 and not unionist, or that they voted Yes in 2014 when they did not. The latter is the total mismatch, so it must be that.
That is how e.g. Survation sends out emails to people they know voted 45% SNP in 2019 and 45% Yes in 2014, yet when these re-answer questions to confirm, they say they voted 46% SNP and 55% Yes.
That causes Survation to down-weight SNP/Yes heavily. The reality is that people must be lying to Survation and saying they voted Yes because they wished they had etc. Maybe they chickened out in the ballot box and are ashamed now, but they are telling pollsters lies. They are Yes now but because they say they were Yes then in what they think is a white lie, they cause Yes to be down-weighted.
So if that’s you, be honest.
Things can only get worse for Starmers new Labouring Tories as the unravelling of his character and methods begin in earnest
The media up till now has denied knowledge of his actions, hence deliberately not reporting them, but it’s beginning to gather pace
Don’t expect the media to change sides and begin reporting what the SNP say is in any way true until they cannot conceal it any longer, week upon week Starmer will drop points in Scotland and the SNP will gain them
Slowly slowly catchee monkey
John Swinney is doing it his way, looking and sounding like the adult in the room while the other lot begin to show their deparation
I hope I’m wrong about Starmer but I have a gut feeling the UK is about to elect one of the most authoritarian PMs in years. He is courting the Mail and Express demographic (although those papers loathe him ..having lurched to the very far right). To attend the launch of a green initiative in Scotland by jumping on a private jet…for the love of God can you imagine the headlines if Swinney did that? Even Sunak would get pelters. To be fair to HIGNFY last night they were very balanced in their distaste for both Sunak and Starmer.
We live in interesting times.
I could barely believe that he was not yet PM and here he was spending money on private jets, no doubt at least some of that money came from the subs of ordinary trade union members struggling with the cost of living.
The man is an absolute fraud, socialist my arse.
This is why I keep saying he’s key to delivering Scottish independence. The planets are aligning. We must hope he retains a sufficient lead to win England on a desperately low turnout. That would be perfect for the SNP / Yes. Everyone rejects Labour / Westminster rule, even England.
It’s weird how the SNP keep saying they want Labour to win general elections not the Tories, yet their opponents insist on thinking the opposite, that somehow another Tory government helps Yes and its what the SNP want. It doesn’t and they don’t. That source of votes has been maxed out. The other source of votes that has not been tapped into in 14 years is an English right-wing Labour government. That’s what delivered the SNP wins in 2007-11 and takes yes into solid majority.
Polls that favour Labour ever have respondents saying a Labour government will push them towards indy and still people don’t believe me on this:
In that 8th May Savanta, Labour supposedly lead the SNP by 4 points Yet once again 23% Labour in No 10 pushed them to indy compared to just 15% who say it pushes them to the union. If the SNP were being oversampled you might dismiss it, but Labour are.
It’s why the SNP are being completely honest when they say it’s preferrable to them that Labour is in No. 10. It accelerates independence when under the Tories, we we’ve been largely relying on age demographic changes after we got as many votes as we could out of them in No 10 earlier in their tenure.
Starmer is also weak and indecisive. It’s exactly who we need in No 10 when we declare independence.
Ok, so those who prefer smoothed averages, here is my standard PoP.
As we know, Scottish pollsters based in Scotland using active, fully random sampling telephone methods, have a far better record than English pollsters using passive panels approaches to poll Scotland from London. So I conservatively weight equally, which disadvantages Yes/SNP. But better to err on the side of caution.
Using this method, based on final poll data for 2019, I’d have come up with:
27(+2)% Con
17(-2)% Lab
11(+1)% Lib
43(-2)% Con
So overestimated unionist and underestimated SNP. SNP final 2019 lead was as follows:
14 pts English panel
18 pts Scottish telephone
20 pts reality
So expect that the gap above is likely wider than I have it by a couple of points, say 36% SNP to 33% Lab.
So nobody can argue I’m being over friendly to the SNP. Nope, I am doing my best to be accurate and conservative.
You can see that while the UKSC boosted Yes, SNP and turnout, England taking out Sturgeon had the opposite effect. Complete collapse in Turnout as regular SNP voters withdrew from the political sphere and stopped answering pollsters. Labour and the small number of Lab to SNP that do exist did not; they are easy to find for pollsters, but SNP voters are not. Polls taking 2 days now take up to 5 to get enough SNP2019 respondents, with the views of these being invented in 20% of polls.
Turnout hit record lows when Yousaf stepped down with the BHA ending. Then the GE announcement happened and this started to tick up just a little it seems.
At the same time, Lab have dropped a smidgen, losing to Con and Lib. Green have dropped a touch, back to SNP it looks like.
Lab and SNP seem to have just gone truly level with that little BHA boost I posted about before, but that may have faded quickly as the far more popular (than Sarwar and Starmer) Swinney took the SNP helm. Then of course SNP voters need to start re-engaging.
Our last poll fieldwork was completed nearly 1 week ago now.
Oh, and the last time the SNP polled this badly / Labour this well was ahead of the 2015 GE. Prior to that it was 2011 when the SNP were polling way worse than this; 15 point Labour lead as campaigns kicked off with 6 weeks to go.
Pants, forgot to update the right scale. I changed poll CTV to turnout projection based on data for 2015,17 and 19.
Pants, two Con results….
Correct here with annotations on key events which I forgot to add in my haste to post before the dug walk.
Nobody could possible argue that Labour are not the party of despondency. Of people giving up hope and staying at home. Of voters believing no change is possible so ‘why bother, they’re all the same’. They made steady progress as a result of turnout projections collapsing in Scotland and England, eagerly feeding on the diseased body of UK democracy, trying to turn it into a corpse.
And Starmer doesn’t give a shit as all he wants is power, money and private jets.
Anyway, if TOP rises back to around 59%, SNP should go back up to 45%. Just 2.3% needed for this to happen based on historical data. SNP head towards 50% when TOP tops 60%. 70% TO and well, it would be over 50% like 2015.
If it does not, Labour lose, and badly anyway, getting 1/3 of the vote on a record low turnout and so no mandate.
This election really isn’t about how the SNP do. It’s about how Labour do. That decides the future of the UK. And it looks dire for them on both sides of the border, which is exactly what leads to the breakup of the UK.
As Starmer says ‘this is no 1997’ and ‘He knows he / labour are unpopular’.
To put things in perspective, Starmer’s Labour currently command the same support amongst the total electorate as Major’s Tories did in the 1997 election. It’s that bad.
But for Scots, things can only get better with independence.
Not a ‘no change’ poll.
To what extent do you feel favourably or unfavourably about each of the following?
John Swinney
33(+5)% Favourable
27(-3)% Neutral
37(+2)% Unfavourable
Swinney rising fast with Savanta too. This is being seen across the board. Neutrals moving towards him. Hardcore britnats starting to dislike more too, which is a good sign.
Starmer falls 1 point NET, inline with the wider picture of his continued decline ratings-wise.
And this is in a poll where even with 4 days of sampling – twice the normal – Savanta still could not find enough SNP 2021 willing to respond, so had heavy labour oversampling.
Is there any truth to the rumour Eylon Aslan-Levy is being parachuted into a safe Labour seat in Shetland ?
Literally…
Is this a joke? There isn’t a safe Labour seat in Shetland. I doubt Mr Aslan-Levy would be interested in Shetland.
Wikipedia
Hmm, let me think on that 🤣
The New Conservatives. Ready to replace the old conservatives as the latter collapse in on themselves.
To rule a Greater England forever and a day. The ‘natural party’ of conservative Englandshire.
https://archive.is/Q4OtW
Keir Starmer says wealth creation is his ‘number one mission’
Starmer said the ‘“only way our country can go forward” was if people and businesses make money. “I think it’s a good thing that people are aspirational. When I say our number one mission is economic growth, you could say our number one mission is wealth creation. Now that’s an odd thing for the Labour party to say. It might have been in the past.”
Asked whether he was relaxed about people making money, he said: “Very. I’m not just relaxed, I’m relaxed as well as being doggedly determined.”
This is so Blairism on speed. Or cocaine I suppose is more appropriate for England’s parliament.
I note wealth cannot be ‘created’. That defies the laws of physics. Wealth (energy / resources) can neither be created nor destroyed, only changed from one form to another. England is e.g. not ‘creating wealth’ from the Scottish seabed, it’s stealing Scottish wealth and taking it to England.
In Starmer’s case, wealth creation is him taking the donations of Labour members struggling to feed their families, and using it to pay for private jets for himself like Sunak does.
Meanwhile, the SNP buys a small campervan for the purpose of campaigning, which the British/English state confiscates so they can’t use it for the election.
Wealth creation is his aim … but NOT Wealth Taxes !
Meanwhile in the country’s capital if you are British.
These are the voters Starmer is courting.
https://archive.is/v9HL1
Heavy police presence in London as protests heat up and Champions League final draws closer
Met Police officers are out in numbers. Tommy Robinson led a controversial protest, counter-protesters reacted, and football fans are gearing up for the Champions League final at Wembley.
Absolute Zoomers…..
Pretty certain the worst Prime Minister we’ve had in recent years is Liz Truss.
Look at those lazy eyelids. Is she on something?
Mandies?
well, when she was in chequers traces of columbian marching powder was found. And gove hadnt visited there.
We’re all born equal, but some are born more equal than others, my Daddy used to say
Starmer has offered Diane Abbott a seat in the Lords if she doesn’t stand as a Labour candidate. I hope she tells him where to shove his offer.
Back to the theme of postal votes, and how campaigns have to be aware of the timings (a statement of the b obvious I guess):
“After the deadline to become a candidate has passed (approximately three weeks before polling day), ballot papers are produced and printed. Yours will then be sent to you, in your postal voting pack.“
which means about 2 weeks before, people will start to send them back. So any change in strategy will need to be done before that.
The converse of that, is that even if a strategy seems to be wrong there’s many a rabbit pulled out of a hat – but more than 2 weeks before the date of the election.
Remind me how long was left to IR1 when the vow was signed and printed.
And how long to renege on it.
More importantly. Last week I delivered correctly completed postal vote forms to the local electoral registration office, kindly checked by a nice lady.
Was also advised due to our holiday dates we should have perhaps considered proxy votes, because they don’t expect to send anything out before 24-Jun-24. On face value possibly good advise considering the election is on 04-Jul-24 and the reliability of the second class mail system. Thought about it for a nano second but decided that the vagaries of photo ID could mean two or more votes lost. So decided to stick with postal.
Although 24-Jun-24 to holiday departure date does not give you a big window of operchancity.
Saw this link to an article posted in a comment on the TuS blog, https://blog.ucsusa.org/edwin-lyman/five-things-the-nuclear-bros-dont-want-you-to-know-about-small-modular-reactors/ and read it – A refreshing dose of reality from an expert in the field rather than the claptrap being peddled by politicians and never challenged by the media on the “Great British Energy” and SMR scam…
Who knew 3 times the cost of wind/solar per kWh was cheaper, Labour and Tory that’s who…
I’m still seething about Stephen Salter’s ducks which was kyboshed by the nuclear industry in cahoots with the government of the day. We’ll never run out of waves and they’ll never stop waving.
I think there were technical problems some of which related to the harsh environment in which the machinery had to operate in. The system was tried in Portugal but eventually after quite a few years and several attempts to get it going it was shelved.
https://www.power-technology.com/projects/pelamis/?cf-view
I knew someone who worked on it in Edinburgh in the 70s.
Also see:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Salter
I think the reference I gave gives a more up to date picture of how the story developed and ended.
The technology was developed and put into a real life setting off Portuguese coast and lots of problems developed but it was not totally abandoned but limped on for a few more years. I remember seeing a report on TV of the system being deployed off the coast of Portugal.
There is a world of difference between something working in a lab setting and then being scaled up to work in a real life setting. Many technologies don’t make that transition
I agree. But see the comment in the wiki article above:
So someone has successfully deployed the technology.
Don’t forget the similar tidal technology which is even more effective.
It wasn’t only nuclear who had interest in scuppering tidal stream generation development, it was oil, gas and HMG.
They’re still trying to this day…
Exactly. Not only one hand tied behind our backs but a massive ball and chain attached to our ankles.
At it’s root lies limiting anything which might change the energy stitchup. As per my hobbyhorse, thermal insulation, they have fought it for years as it would seriously dent income streams and exchequer revenues… The customer must continue to pay….
Stephen Salter died in February RIP
https://www.eng.ed.ac.uk/about/news/20240301/announcing-death-professor-stephen-salter
Pollster covering his bases.
He’s saying this because he knows what I can see, i.e. that pollsters are reaching Labour voters easily but struggling for SNP. 4-5 days to get enough respondents in a f**king panel poll? FFS that’s a serious sampling problem. 2 days is the norm.
If we were in a post election honeymoon where polls had 60% SNP, as has been the case in the past, he’d be saying the opposite.
60% SNP and 30% SNP are over engaged and totally disengaged SNP voters respectively. Both silliness in recent years to likely the same now.
I note he mentions things have improved for the SNP in recent polls no matter how desperately some wish to deny this.
https://archive.is/mKNfG
General Election: How accurate are the polls in Scotland?
Pollster Mark McGeoghegan said that the polling over the last month or so should “certainly” be taken seriously.
He added, however, that it doesn’t mean any one poll should be taken at face value.
“There’s all sorts of sources of error. Not just statistical error. Usually we say that’s plus or minus 3%,” he said.
“You may have a sample that is more politically engaged than the general public are. And people who are politically engaged are structurally different from the general public.
“Maybe people who are more politically engaged are more likely to support Labour or more likely to be swing voters. And if that’s true, then you might get some error in your final voting intention totals.”
Actually it was Ballot Box Scotland saying this:
An average of the most recent polls does make for better viewing for the SNP, with just a slight lead for Labour.
If you think English panel polls with their sh*te record in Scotland are correct then aye. If you trust gold standard Scottish telephone better, then no, other way around. Not been one in a while, but since SNP and Lab numbers in panel polls are identical to what they were when the last one was taken, we can assume it will look the same. Averaging it with crappy cheapo English polls of the Scotch makes this assumption conservative and would underestimate SNP as it did ahead of 2019.
The swing voters he’s talking about are SNP -> Lab, who are engaged like Lab -> Lab are. Lab -> SNP are disengaged like SNP -> SNP are.
Disengaged does not mean won’t vote as 2019 showed. SNP voters never fully reengaged with pollsters then, hence the consistent underestimation of their VI. A lot of SNP just stayed quiet then quietly went out and voted SNP.
Red Tories.
Diane Abbott”s face says it all 😂
If the Times story is true then that is a pretty damning indictment of “Change Labour”.
Unless of course the awkward squad take the ermine and then Starmer immediately abolished the HoL with an accompanying Heh Heh Heh.
What was it again? “Don’t believe it until it’s been officially denied.”
Labour denies promising peerages to get MPs to stand down (nation.cymru)
Labour denies promising peerages to get MPs to stand down
02 Jun 2024 5 minute read
The Sunday Times has claimed a number of former Labour MPs including Diane Abbott have been offered peerages to quit and open up seats for allies of party leader Sir Keir Starmer.
Amid the ongoing speculation as to whether Britain’s first black woman MP would be permitted to stand for Labour in the election, the party have also faced allegations of a “cull” against left-wing members in its candidate selection.
Shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper has distanced the party from the peerage accusations, stating: “No party can do that, it’s not the way the system works.”
[…]
Shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper has distanced the party from the peerage accusations, stating: “No party can do that, it’s not the way the system works.”
That is the way the system works, though. For years individuals have donated to Labour or the Conservatives one week and been fitted for ermine the next. I
So, for Yougov and Savanta, which are the two I’ve looked at so far, average time to get enough respondents was 3.5 days before ‘the drop’ at end Q1 2023 and 4.7 days after it.
That’s massive. A 33% increase in the time taken to get enough responses as pollsters struggle to reach SNP 2019/21.
That folks, is the mass SNP voter disengagement showing up again. It’s there in unweighted bases and survey times. Some surveys took 8 f’n days to get 1000 people. That’s nuts for a panel poll where people have put themselves forward to be polled previously, and YouGov / Savanta know what they voted before, so are targeting them.
This is why the polling expert in the National article is warning about potential Labour / Labour leaner oversampling.
Anyway, we can be 100% sure that these two pollsters have have not been getting representative samples since early 2023. What we can’t know, is what the picture would look like if they did have representative samples. We might speculate based on the fact the SNP are comfortably out in front in leadership ratings, with these on the rise for Swinney while they tank for Starmer / Sarwar, that the SNP might look better than they do right now. That and the fact Yes climbed even with Labour oversampling.
So aye, it’s the same across the board apart from the mysterious Labour loving R&W who are always, magically, just 2 days needed. Or at least the always say it took 2 days. That seems a bit suspicious to me given everyone else has 2-5 days, sometimes 6 even 8 post turnout collapse.
Would not change the overall picture anyway as it’s 2 days either side consistently.
4.42 days to sample post drop, so May 2023 onwards
3.23 in 2022 right up to end April 2023.
33% more time needed to reach sufficient respondents ties in perfectly with the turnout projection drop. Also the heavy Labour oversampling seen in unweighted bases.
It is silent SNP2019/21. That doesn’t mean they’ll silently vote SNP again. Nobody knows what they’ll do as they’re silent for now.
Before the drop, 29% of polls conducted took just 2 days.
This fell to 4% after the sharp drop in SNP2019/21 responses per request early 2023.
Polls are not sampling the same people as 2021 into Q1 2023. This is without doubt.
There is silent SNP.
What will they do? Another 2011? Another 2015? Another 2019? All examples where they went silent for a good while before the election, sometimes with some SNP never answering the pollsters, not even at the end (2019).
It does not look like 2017 in that back then the SNP were riding high in advance; into the low 50’s at times. That slipped away in the final weeks and the turnout fell sharply on 2015.
‘Scottish jobs for British / English workers. Not your furriner wife S_S. We don’t want her sort here. Scotland is our lebensraum. It is our country’.
Told you. Starmer’s building the new British National Party.
https://archive.is/3wDxE
Starmer promises cut to net migration under Labour
Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to cut levels of net migration to the UK if his party wins the general election.
The Labour leader said he would introduce new laws to train British workers to plug skills gaps in the job market and strengthen anti-exploitation laws.
He did not put a timeframe or a target figure on his promise, but told the Sun on Sunday, external: “Mark my words, a future Labour government will bring down net migration.”
The Conservatives, who recently introduced measures designed to cut the number of arrivals to the UK, said “no one believes Keir Starmer is serious about tackling immigration”.
Announcing the new policy to the paper, Sir Keir declared: “If you trust me with the keys to No10 I will make you this promise: I will control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first.”
The aim would be for the country to be “less reliant on migration by training more UK workers”, Sir Keir added.
Will Scots have to wear a Saltire to be easily identified?
You can reduce net migration by driving loads of people out of the country.
🙃
The number of non-Brits in Britain can be reduced by millions overnight.
Scottish / Welsh indy plus Irish reunification. Job done.
”Sir Keir Starmer has PLEDGED …” Oh Dear !
@ Bob Lamont above – the thread was getting thin.
If you watch Scotonomics videos you will enjoy their interview with Grace Blakeley who wrote Vulture Capitalism. Free markets aren’t free, corporate profits don’t trickle down and we don’t have any choice – decision are made for us but against our interests.
That’s why we can’t have nice things like wave power and insulation.
The book is excellent too – perfect Sunday reading. Vulture Capitalism.
Yep, will watch – Haven’t read her book, but have read similar expositions which were equally ignored by the media…
On your ” That’s why we can’t have nice things like wave power and insulation. ” I’d include ‘an absence of energy crises’ ..
There were absolutely no shortages in the last crisis to justify what arose, but the the vulture capitalists saw opportunity to fleece the consumer in a “free market”, the only thing that trickled down were high bills to trapped consumers, and IOUs to those who had assisted the scam…
BBC polling guru Mark Diffley says (paraphrasing) all the polls are based on the 2019 polls that would have been the polls had the boundary changes been made at that time
Kinda like saying we invented some rules to apply to something we don’t know
Mark Diffley also with confidence stated “the SNP vote is going down” Now that’s a funny thing to say before a vote has even been cast is it not? It’s a prediction as accurately based on the woman on Telly that chucks bits of Asparagus onto a tablecloth
Martin Geissler the BBCs British man on the Telly asks Alex Cole Scuttle about the constitution and given that at least 50% of Scots want to leave the enforced English British union, and Cole Scuttle replies “nobody’s talking about that” Geissler presses the question “is the union voluntary” Cole Scuttle replies “yes” Geissler presses “then how does Scotland leave the union”
Cole Scuttle replies “water sewage worse than England might be doorsteps not in the EU love it to bits must accept where we are water slides are great we’re winning everywhere”
Concise isn’t he
It’s a week since the fieldwork of our more recent poll was undertaken.
Mark Diffley isn’t a pollster anymore, so he won’t necessarily know that surveys are taking a lot longer because they are struggling to reach sufficient SNP2019/21, and instead are getting too many Labour 2019/21.
I had to do some hand counting and make a logical inference to corroborate other data (changes in targeted unweighted bases), but the pollsters will have data for actual response rates. They will know it is much harder to hit their 2019/21 SNP quota, but cannot correct for it. They will also not say they think they may be very far off the mark as that will kill their business. What’s the point of them if this were the case, nor just for politics, but for all their market research?
So they occasionally caveat like the pollster in the National article. That and when they see their response rates climb ahead of an election they tell clients that it is ‘swing’ due to campaigning etc. Ian Gray in the subway shop did not have people swinging to SNP. That had been developing for many years, only speeding up a bit as libs moved 2010-11. It did not happen in six weeks ahead of the vote. That was simply response rates rising.
Pollsters only have to be right on the day. English pollsters can’t even manage that in Scotland. Not in 2019 anyway. Nor any time previously SNP voters have gone silent.
UK-wide polls agree with the few Scottish we have. They show the SNP up 3% from a low just before the election.
At face value SNP share has fallen. But polls show it rising at the last count, not falling.
Swinney said he wanted to bring the SNP back to the centre-left, so how’s he doing – and how quickly? Here’s another couple of headlines:
“Scottish Government quietly axes national recycling target“
and
“Swinney considers U turn on new oil and gas licences“
I should have kept a track because there’s been a good few like this since he took over. The Greens were good in opposition, and were good negotiating budget concessions. But they’ve been a total economic disaster for Scotland; far left student politics have no interest in economic reality.
Swinney had a lot of nonsense to undo, and goodness gracious, he’s doing that just as fast as his legs can run. So I’d say he’s on schedule to completely turn around the SNP’s popularity by 4th July, taking account of the 2 weeks before that that postal votes can be returned.
Swinney – he the man. Ably supported by Forbes I expect.
Some have accused Sir Keir Starmer of being authoritarian ,mendacious , anti-left-wing , Tory-lite ,etc…and some have even branded him a Labour man ; but that is NOT the real Keir .
A few revelations have emerged from a new Biography of Sir Keir , which has not yet been published , which show the man in a new light .
Sir Keir – how he hates that title ! He fought tooth and nail to avoid having this forced on him by people who didn’t know his aversion to trinkets handed out by faceless people to those they wished to flatter . He has been , unsuccessfully , attempting to hand this hated title back for years and is frustrated at the lack of response from the faceless bureaucrats at the Department for Useless Titles . He likes to avoid using the title and encourages his friends not to call him Sir Keir – ” Sir is just fine ! !”
Ever since he was ”a nipper running about in bare feet collecting rubbish ” ( Sir ) Keir has had an environmental conscience and has tried to bring those principles in to his everyday life . Which , he claims , is why he was attracted to The Law , where he could ”get rid of the rubbish from Society” . As PM he is confident that he can extend this mission to those who don’t support his ”Progressive Socialism ” – like Diane Abbott and her ilk !
(Sir) Keir has been castigated for ”pledges” that he made to the Labour Party in order to become leader and later ( ten minutes later ) reneged on . He has mounted a stiff and intelligent response to these baseless charges : ” I didn’t make any such pledges – and if I did , I was misquoted ! ” he stated , through his PR agent Mr B. Johnson .
As a ”Progressive Socialist ” ( Sir ) Keir has been particularly moved by the Two-Child Cap on Welfare . ”This has to go . We in the Party ( checks notes ) …The Labour Party , will not make unfunded promises , so we will address this reprehensible situation . I have instructed our policy makers to prioritise this – along with the Abolition of the House of Lords and the phasing out of Nuclear Power .”
To all the Jocks hoping for a renewed and fairer vision of the Union , (Sir ) Keir has stressed his feelings for that distant land . And admitted the stress it has caused him with that SNPeeee adopting policies that have made his Party look like a Tory Tribute Band . He regretted the appointment of the Millionaire Dentist to lead the Branch Office but was convinced he was the man for the job when no one else wanted it , not even Damn Jackie as she claimed this would restrict her time for TV interviews on dead pigeons .
(Sir ) Keir has a track record on Humanitarian Issues and has been wounded by the furore over his ”alleged” comments on Gaza . He and Labour Friends of Israel have been calling for a Ceasefire since October the 5th , a whole two days before the conflict began ! The Gutter Press ( except those whose support he wants for the election ) have given the impression that he was calling for Water , Power and Food to be cut off by Israel when in fact he was warning against such actions by the terrorist Hamas organisation .
(Sir) Keir is confident that this new Biography will exonerate him in the eyes of the people whom he really respects …Tony Blair , The editors of the Mail and Express and the Tory MPs who are defecting to his Party ( checks notes )…the Real Conservative Party .
🤣
SNP campaign starts today. Nice to be on the up before this has even happened according to polls.
https://archive.is/bEa96
Swinney to urge voters ‘to put Scotland’s interests first’
John Swinney will urge people to “vote SNP to put Scotland’s interests first” as he formally launches the party’s general election campaign.
Mr Swinney will tell activists and candidates at a rally in Glasgow later that Westminster decision-making has meant “austerity, Brexit and a cost of living crisis being imposed on Scotland”.
Scotland’s first minister will stress his belief in independence as a way to ensure decisions about Scotland are made in Scotland.
I just read a statement from some climate change experts who said that LEZ do absolutely nothing to alter climate change, they only thing these zones achieve is to *help* increase the air quality within cities
And OK we kinda knew that but in the case of Glasgow which has the busiest motorway in Scotland running right through the centre of it and the wind blows a lot, how much more clean air can a city in this position ever actually get to, and can the fines which so far only total £1 million quid make it any better?
Asking for someone who drives only 3.000 miles per year in a banned diesel car and uses that road once every three or four months but is disallowed entering Glasgow ever where company reps and more wealthy people that I subsidise with my excessive road tax do 30.000 miles per year because their vehicles are two years newer?
Just who and what are these rules actually for and who are the real polluters? it can’t be me, but I’m paying for being one even though I’m not there
If anybody has seen a cyclist on the double snail trail of road restrictions on Cumbernauld road I’d really like to hear about it, send photos of the miles of road that cyclists rarely ever used and still rarely use despite the £millions spent encouraging them to use it
I have seen some children cyclists, they use the pavements then cross the road to the other pavement when the pavement on one side runs out, btw I don’t hate cyclists, I used to be one when people cycled for tourism and leisure, now they cycle for a few hundred yards to the shops and back and it’s costing us £millions, slowing down the traffic and creating higher emissions
And don’t get me started on the *family SUV* to save one kid from walking a mile to school in a country with the lowest crime rate ever recorded when the poorer ones walk or cycle to school on the pavement anyway, Aaargh!
Rant over
And here it is. SNP not wanting to respond mean it takes a lot longer to get your SNP quota. Pollsters send out batch emails. If they don’t get enough responses, they send another batch to different people. Then another and so forth as needs be. They want to limit the responses to exactly the 1k they want as they have to pay each respondent who does complete. Over time they know their response rates, so they adjust the number of requests to optimise. They will know they have problem in Scotland.
They absolutely 100% no doubt about it have been struggling to reach SNP in particular, and con a little bit too. Lab and Lib have been no problem. Lab can’t wait to answer as they are told their party is riding high.
And the more they struggle to reach SNP 2019/21, the more their polls show SNP down. This is because pollsters only manage to reach more Lab leaning SNP, and not SNP leaning Lab who are quiet too.
So again, if you compare polls pre- and post- SNP drop, you are comparing applies and pears. End of. The people responding are not the same. You have silent SNP and Con 19/21 now. No doubt about it.
And the pollsters will know this as noted. But like me, they cannot know what these silent people will do because they are not saying; they’re silent.
I note the SNP ‘real value’ isn’t 42%. The averages will vary with the sampling period. Here it is ~50/50 post and pre-drop in terms of time and poll total numbers. If I’d extended back to 2021 the pattern would show higher SNP at lower days. All we can know is samples are not representative. They have much less SNP2019 then they should, and are oversampling Labour 2019/21.
Reporter just asked Swinney why Labour are doing so well in Scotland.
There is no evidence Labour is doing well in Scotland. In Rutherglen and Hamilton West they went backwards. Independence voters didn’t want the shitty seat as they could do nothing useful with it, but Brits should as its for their parliament. They could have used it to bash the SNP and show what the future was bringing. But they stayed at home and the Labour vote went down sharply. They warned of a dark future for the union and nobody listened.
And polls say Labour is only ahead because they are being heavily oversampled, something even pollsters are saying could be true because they are pretty sure it is. That and union breaking turnouts are being predicted.
Maybe in England / Britain failure = success, but in Scotland, Labour doing well would be them winning seats on a majority of the vote on healthy turnouts. We are not delusional fantasists in Scotland.
Which is why I keep saying only what I know or what all the evidence points to, and I won’t be making predictions of the future when I don’t know what a huge chunk of silent voters are going to do. I only know what they’ve done before after being silent, and that was go out and vote SNP. But who knows, maybe they’ve silently come home to labour.
I’ll just say if they do turn out, the balance of probability would be for SNP again, especially as SNP leadership ratings have them well out in front here. Starmer’s ratings are dire and Sunaks disastrous. Sarwar is like his puppet master. Swinney wins hands down.
For those wondering about the £450 million EU money that SG is ‘returning’ here is a short thread by Alyn Smith explaining what is going on
https//x.com/AlynSmith/status/1797210911729406241?t=mBE67Oced3kHPmJl1D35qg&s=19
Cant read the posts as not had an X account for months. Is there an archive version domewhe?
Had English sky news on earlier.
Watched the bizarre spectacle of Sir Trevor Phillips, knight of the English realm, telling Scot Stephen Flynn that the SNP winning a majority of seats would not be them winning an election.
It seems if you are a Scottish party, you can’t win by winning a majority of seats. That rule only applies to English parties. If Scottish parties win a majority of seats, they’ve lost and have no mandate.
Philips actually asked Flynn to explain, twice, how ‘winning a majority of seats could possibly be considered winning’. For real. I kid you not. Right there on live TV.
Flynn, with a huge smile, had to carefully explain the basic principles of elections and how these work, namely that the party with the most seats ‘has won’, and particularly if they get a majority of these*.
England truly is delusional since brexit. Establishment people there seem to live in fantasy world.
—
Assuming a healthy turnout at least. Low turnouts delegitimise results.
It is amusing that *Sir* Trevor Phillips, a black man, cannot seem to comprehend colonialism, but then again when you become a born again white colonialist with your very own British honours and titles some things will indeed passeth all previous understanding
I hear Diane Abbot has been bribed with an Imperial title of Baroness, one wonders if she’ll forget her ancestry as well once she thinks she’s become white
They never learn it’s not just about the colour of anybody’s skin, if you’re not one of them you never will be no matter what they pin on your shirt
I see all the Scottish journalists on twitter are complaining about the “absolute outrage” that some SNP members at the launch of the election campaign mocked and laughed at James Cook of the BBC when he tried to ask a question of John Swinney.
It’s absolutely fine for them to attack the SNP in print and on TV for everything under the sun whether it is true or not. Criticise the media though and well that’s just not cricket. “We were only doing our job” is never an excuse and I can think of a great many reasons that Scottish media should be criticised every day.
The simple truth is they are NOT “just doing their job” unless that job is to attack the SNP and belittle their record at every oppertunity.
James Cook will get no sympathy from me and neither will the rest of them who are complaining loudly about the “unfairness of it all”.
BBCs James Cook who swore live on TV he’d read an email that proved FFM Nicola Sturgeon was a liar
An email that was proven never to have existed, then the BBC sent him to America for two years till enough time had passed in the hope that we’d all forget he was the liar
There’s another one of his kind there at this moment, Sarah Smith who’s as truthful and unbiased as Cook
Aye, they don’t like it when the worms turn, pretty sure Swinney will have smiled inwardly as he shushed the hecklers…. eg Just look at he first 6 paragraphs of BBC Scotland’s ” Swinney urges voters ‘to put Scotland’s interests first’ ” –
” John Swinney has urged people to “vote SNP to put Scotland’s interests first” as he formally launched the party’s general election campaign.
Mr Swinney told activists and candidates at a rally in Glasgow that Westminster decision-making had meant “austerity, Brexit and a cost of living crisis being imposed on Scotland”.
Scotland’s first minister stressed his belief in independence as a way to ensure decisions about Scotland are made in Scotland.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said John Swinney’s “relaunch of a shambolic campaign” proved he was more interested in his party than the people.
Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross accused Mr Swinney of “pandering to his Nationalist base and pitting Scot against Scot in a bid to break up the UK”.
Meanwhile, Scottish Lib Dems leader Alex Cole-Hamilton also criticised the SNP’s continued push for a second independence referendum – insisting voters simply “don’t care”.”
James Cook’s impartiality and balance is pretty damned obvious, 50% given over over to Sarwar, DRoss and Cole-Scuttle for the launch of the SNP campaign…..🙄
They’re not really journalists though. They are more like propagandists. Cheerleaders for the Tory/Labour coalition. They are offended by any resistance to their line of attack.
Dianne Abbott is denying she has ever been offered a peerage and sau she would refuse one if it was offered. She is calling Starmer’s bluff by announcing she intends to stand for the Hackney North & Stoke Newington seat at the election.
My money would be on the NEC of the Labour party refusing to endorse her nomination so she can’t stand, it will be interesting either way.
THIS is one of the things that is radically wrong with some YESsers:
https://archive.is/9qqOJ
‘”Now, before we go any further. I just said I believe in open debate and respectful disagreement,” the SNP leader said. “So for this bit of the gathering, no questions are to be applauded or heckled. And none of my answers are to be applauded or heckled.”‘
But looking at the comments below the line of the article shows that they have not the slightest interest in open debate or respectful disagreement.
James Cook of the BBC is a journalist, he is entitled to ask questions – IT IS HIS JOB – and entitled to receive answers in a respectful fashion. It is the extremists of the YES movement who are holding us all back.
Unionist journalists getting themselves into a lather over this.
He had no problem in asking his question and was rightly laughed at for how pathetic the question was. I never knew these journalists were such sensitive souls that their poor feelings got hurt and every other journalist had to say how upset all this has made them.
It is the journalists reporting in Scotland who are the truly pathetic ones and greeting faced wee weans into the bargain.
QED
Oh dear LOL
It’s no laughing matter. Extremists are the ugly face of Independence, and it’s that ugly face that the media will present to the general public time and time again, given half a chance.
Clearly there were some at Swinney’s campaign launch, and the good thing is that he tackled it straight away. THAT took guts and commitment, and mature wisdom.
Absolute rubbish, Cook asked his infantile question without interruption. This is being blown out of all proportion by the media because it is just another attack on the SNP AND their support.
Are journalists to be immune from scrutiny? Are we not to question their motives or their political beliefs?
You need to get real and decide who’s side you are really on. It is NOT extreme to laugh at the pathetic questions that has been answered a million times and we all know why that question was asked AGAIN.
It was to illicit exactly the type of response that you have given and once again fallen for their propaganda. James Cook in particular has form for inciting an audience to “attack” him so as that he becomes the story.
There was no “attack” he was mocked for being a poor excuse for a serious journalist, that’s about the sum of it. The state of the rest of his colleagues falling over themselves to condemn such “absolutely terribly bad behaviours by the nasty Nationalists” is the most pathetic stunt of all.
Here’s you too, joining in with the attacks on their behalf, not that this surprises me in the slightest. It’s what you do.
How do you know these ‘extremists’ are independence supporters? Do you know them personally and well? If not, then the answer is no, and they could well be British nationalists.
At the SNP campaign launch, the question booed was the most inanely stupid British nationalist one ever. The person who asked it knew this. It was a deliberate provocation.
Swinney responded immaculately. But then so did the crowd.
Thanks for posting that Sky clip, it puts the bullshit perfectly in perspective…
In England, failure = success.
People no longer wanting to come to pay to study at a UK university, and key workers no longer wishing to work in the UK, is now seen as ‘success’.
England is so, so f**ked, and Scotland too if we stay in the UK.
https://archive.is/NxAdJ
Labour’s pledge to cut work visas worries business
…Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative government has already introduced measures, which Labour has supported, that appear to be reducing immigration to the UK. These include a ban on masters students and care workers bringing relatives to the UK and a sharp increase in the salaries employers must pay to sponsor visas for skilled workers.
Recent Home Office data suggests applications to study in the UK and to work in care homes have already fallen sharply as a result of the changes.
Another straw in the wind that we’re past the utter stupidity of the “Make Scotland Tory Free” blinkered false start. From the Herald:
“Swinney steps up attack on Labour as he launches the SNP’s election campaign“
At this rate I might have to change my avatar back again.
But the SNP need to be careful; it’s not just “soft YES” they’re after – it’s the very hard YES who lost faith in the SNP to bring about Independence.
Put the two together and there’s no reason the SNP can’t get 50% or even more of the GE vote.
Starmer loses another one …
Prominent Welsh left-winger denounces Starmer as he quits Labour after 35 years (nation.cymru)
Prominent Welsh left-winger denounces Starmer as he quits Labour after 35 years
02 Jun 2024 7 minute read
One of the most prominent left-wing members of Welsh Labour has resigned from the party after 35 years, denouncing the direction it has taken under the leadership of Keir Starmer.
Darren Williams, who heads the PCS union in Wales and co-founded the Welsh Labour Grassroots group, said in a letter to Sir Keir: “After 35 years’ continuous, active Labour membership – including time spent on the National Executive Committee, the Welsh Executive Committee, the National Policy Forum and as a Cardiff councillor – I have cancelled my direct debit today, as I can no longer bear to remain in a party that treats its members, representatives and voters with such contempt.
[…]
___________
Success as failure, failure as success. Pace Skier.
I greatly look forward to Cole Skuttle turning up on my doorstep here in Mid Dunbartonshire a seat allegedly hotly contested by the Lib Dums so that I can put him right about support for Indy. Then again when wee Willie Winkie aka Willie Rennie Msp came calling here a few months back so I already told him I supported Indy and the Snp. Guess I am on their list of subhumans now so doubtful they will visit again
Above was in reply to Bob Lamont’s post at 7.12pm. How it ended up down here I have no clue
Not that I am aware of. Sorry. Thought you could get through to link as a one off.
Point of order:
Punters are not politicians therefore do not have to be politically correct, and if we are to understand any kind of democracy the part that includes freedom of speech applies to we punters who have no TV news organisation supporting us when we speak, so we I me and uncle Tom Cobley and all can conduct ourselves any which way we like as long as we do not break the law
Respect is lovely innit, but has to be somewhat earned, and James Cook of the BBC like his employers is a lying wee toe rag, so has earned the contempt of everyone who knows what he did
Just one more thing about this
Extremists is it, after over 300 years of these people they’re damn lucky that a bit of mockery and laughter is all that’s happening to them, most other enforced colonised countries dealt with these people in an entirely different manner
I really hope it’s not just me. But “extremists” (not you Dr Jim) again really???
It’s becoming just too common place to label anyone in Scotland who is not them “extremist”, seams like we’re definitely on the road to being labelled terrorist. Under StarWars proposed new laws.
And his intended support for the construction industry, that’ll be building new ‘H’ blocks as well as his super dooper new mini nuclear reactors that he intends to gift us, you know the ones that don’t even work properly in the subs they were originally designed for. Why do you think their new aircraft carriers are diesel powered instead of the super dooper new mini nuclear power plants with the free for life energy, Duh!!!!
Would any supporter of Independence be surprised to know that many of these propaganda techniques are being used repeatedly to stop support of Independence from rising any further?
Do you recognise any of them yourself that you might have seen being used?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda_techniques
And this is what Libby Brooks described as an “ugly moment” ? FFS….
A stupid question was posed by a British nationalist for the purpose of demeaning the independence argument and some people snorted with derision at the questioner, so what
John Swinney very skillfully manipulated the situation to turn the stupidity of the question onto the questioners argument and made him repeat his stupidity over again for the purpose of enlightening the people who support independence as to the slimy tactics of the British nationalists and give a clear and concise answer to it
That’s John Swinney’s method and style it does not mean it’s everyone else’s, nor should it be
People like James Cook know exactly what they’re doing, and he in particular has used his presence to provoke many times in the past, he does it deliberately to instigate argument then reports it in his Daily Mail BBC style
How many times have you beaten your wife Mr Swinney
I have never beaten my wife
John Swinney denies beating his wife
This is what James Cook is, a slimy wee passive aggressive British Nationalist that *deserves* no respect from anyone except those that choose to give it
He’s a punch me in the face provocateur so he can print the picture of someone punching him then name them as the bad aggressor to prove his slimy point that he’s just a journalist *doing his job*
Which of us should just forget BBC James Cook’s live squealings on TV of “I’ve seen the email First Minister” right into Nicola Sturgeon’s face with a microphone, that was proven to be a total fabrication and a lie by him
I seem to remember another BBC journalist who did a similar thing to Salmond and I don’t remember a single soul being respectful to that guy
“Answer came there none” was the phrase at that time, another blatant lie from BBC *journalists*
I believe I would be correct in understanding that the people who booed the journalist are those who pay his wages?
Or rather, are forced to pay his wages on pain of fines / jail. His employer is course the English state broadcaster; England being an aggressive country that is currently subjugating those in the room / their fellow countryfolk by denying them right to vote on the basis of their national identity and/or ethnicity. And all so it can plunder the resources of their country while ruining it economically.
Booing is a pretty mild response in the situation I’d suggest.
Genuine question, but when it comes to the Euros etc, what team do British people support?
I don’t mean e.g. those unionists who ticked ‘Scottish’ and ‘British’, but those who just ticked ‘British’ only.
Do they have no team because Britain isn’t a country?
Academics are suggesting the drop in Scottish & British in favour of a rise in Scottish only and British only say the latter is a hardening of identity.
So what team to these 13.9% of people in Scotland support? They didn’t tick Scottish nor English nor Welsh nor N. of Ireland, so they have no team? No country? No sense of national identity associated with this?
Is this where the insecurity comes from?
Meanwhile, cannae wait for the coming sea of saltires. Just 11 days until Scotland comes home to Europe!
Voters across the country will be draped in saltires, hanging these from their windows, sticking them on their cars…
Meanwhile Starmer will be putting a giant St George’s cross on his battle bus. If he doesn’t max out on English flags, he’s just not patriotic enough to be PM.
Vote SNP to bring Scotland home to Europe
That’s the union that is dear to our hearts and key to our prosperity. One where we are liked and respected, not disliked and abused.
Some SNP members laughed at this journalists question, it was horrific to watch and it could be a long time before he recovers from such a savage attack, he was only doing his job.
Keep that clip bookmarked for when the GE results come in – Even Alex knows opinion polling this far out from election day is notoriously flaky, WHAT SEEMS TO BE is not a result.
It’s nuts. The whole Labour doing well in Scotland is entirely manufactured based on cherry picking from flaky polls. Polls are not real. They can be completely wrong. They also show Starmer and Sarwar to be very unpopular, with this getting worse, and in polls favouring labour due to oversampling.
Elections are real. National elections. Sometimes by-elections can be straws in the wind. Rutherglen and Hamilton West suggests the Labour vote will fall on a desperately low turnout. It would be a disaster fort the union if R&HW was replicated on the 4th of July. It would signal the end of the UK. The result supported the tanking leadership ratings of Starmer / Sarwar and the Yes polls showing Scots no longer wish to send MPs to London, but want indy instead.
Now maybe turnout will shoot up and this will all benefit Labour, allowing them to take a load of seats from the SNP on a wave of popular support. That would be ‘Scots coming home to Labour’.
However, polls so far say that is not what would happen if they were replicated at the ballot box tomorrow. They paint a R&HW picture of the lowest turnout ever in a UK election, with the SNP still wining even though lots of their voters didn’t turn out.
It’s not just polling they are misreading, it’s propaganda – The media are punting a surge in Labour favourability in Scotland whilst knowing it’s tanking in England amongst Labour’s own members and supporters ? Eh ?
The anger in England is very real, with many openly expressing envy for the Scots having a left-leaning choice – Were such an alternative available in England, Labour would crash and burn at the next GE.
Yet Labour is on the up in Scotland ? Bridge for sale….
And now for something completely different:
“The presence of Douglas Alexander convinced me to run for Alba
By George Kerevan“
Who knew?
Starmer has confirmed that in true Tory style, he’s going to force Scotland to host England’s nuclear weapons and make us Scots pay for the privilege.
https://archive.is/aSFVq
Keir Starmer unveils Labour’s Trident ‘triple lock’ commitment
Out with the Tories and in with New British National Party.
Bombs and British nationalism, not Bairns. That’s Starmer’s BNP for you.
BBC Election briefing :
”Remember the message : Labour is doing well , SNP failing ! Labour is doing well , SNP failing ! Repeat ad nauseum ! ”
”Oh , and James ? Don’t mention any fictitious emails . We got away with it once – but don’t push it !”
Comment below was meant to be here. However, the more the media pushes the line that Labour are going to romp home the better. The natural effect of this is to subdue the Labour vote, many of whom were planning to hold their nose when voting Labour.
If they don’t need to turn out and do that because Labour are guaranteed a massive win, they probably won’t. The SNP’s commanding lead ahead of 2017 while they held almost every seat in Scotland dented their voter turnout hard. That and because the election was a turnoff as nothing could be realistically achieved. Too soon after 2014 for indy and Brexit could not be undone.
What the ‘Labour doing well’ message won’t do is have people change from SNP to Lab. That would be nonsense. People don’t vote based on how others are voting, the vote to achieve their own personal aims.
If the media was sensible, it would big up the SNP, saying they were likely to win again big style. That would encourage hardcore unionists out to vote while suppressing SNP possibly.
‘Labour voters can stay at home because they’re going to win, but SNP voters should turn out to save the cause’.
Is what that message says to an electorate turned off by both erse cheeks.
Human nature being a fickle and fractious thing dictates that under constant influence most people prefer to be on the side of what they believe is the winner in any contest and not *the loser* hence the use of propaganda, they know it has an effect, and in most instances is successful
The difficulty the proponents of propaganda have is that they cannot reuse the same style of propaganda on repeat once it has been disproven or that can work against the propagandist in opposite effect
It’s the degree of its success they can never predict
300 years of telling Scotland we’re a bunch of useless tosser no marks one minute and a great country the next when they demand our vote that keeps giving them the power to say that has worn increasingly thin
Human nature being a fickle and fractious thing dictates that under constant influence most people prefer to be on the side of what they believe is the winner in any contest and not *the loser* hence the use of propaganda
Not in Scotland. Labour were e.g. on for a majority in 2011. Polls had them winning for 2 years and on for a majority in some to end march 2011.
It was relentless. ‘SNP were a one term minority wonder. It was over. 2010 proved it; Scotland had come home to Labour. Salmond was finished; would need to stand down following the scale of the coming defeat. Gray was to be FM, independence was at best 30% and in retreat’.
I remember being really despondent after being so buoyant post 2007. Why had the SNP lead in polls for both Westminster and Holyrood gone? It made no sense as Salmond’s ratings were far better than Labour’s leaders. They had good policies and a very unpopular Labour had just ruined the economy.
Voters totally ignored all the propaganda and just kept steadily moving to SNP. They bitterly regretted the failed tactical vote for Lab/Lib in 2010, so much so they lied to pollsters about having done that, instead telling these they gave the SNP 35% vs the actual 20%. Very much like how voters are lying right now, saying they voted 55% Yes when the reality was 45%. And that’s in heavy pro-unionist samples. It’s another problem for pollsters; respondents lie, often due to regret. They think it might help their cause when it does the opposite.
Then the 2011 campaign began and voters steadily started responding, saying exactly what they planned to pollsters. As a result, the polls slowly became ever more representative. It was the 21st of April before the first one came within error of the final SNP lead over Labour. Just two weeks before. As usual, the English pollsters had the SNP notably lower than reality on 42% on average in final polls. Labour too high as well.
You can add 3% min to the SNP share right now as English polls are never right. Not unless they know the answer because the electorate are engaged. That and they’re watching what Scottish pollsters are getting and adjusting to suit.
At 5 PM today YouGuv are set to release what they claim is an accurate prediction of who and how many seats each party will achieve in the general election
Two words that don’t belong in the same sentence *accurate* and *prediction*
They must have consulted the wummin that chucks the Asparagus again
Do they have the lottery numbers?
I’m guessing it’s an MRP poll?
They had a bit of a clanger with the MRP approach in Scotland 2019. Just days before the vote too.
Silent SNP got them.
14 point SNP lead. Reality was 20 points. That’s sh*t just days before. Scottish polling (IPSOS) had an 18 point lead on the 25th November. English panel polling = cheapo crap.
The only way you can fight against silent voters is to try phoning them. That will improve your reach somewhat. It’s why IPSOS do it this way. Doesn’t fix it, but can help. Costs much more and takes a lot longer though as it is proper fully random sampling.
Accurate as of when? Not in five weeks time I wouldn’t have thought.
The caveat is always ‘if the election was held today’ so they can never be wrong!
Then as the election approaches and they see their samples becoming more representative, they call it ‘swings’ to cover their tracks when it’s just a particular party’s voters beginning to engage and they know it.
They’ve never found a solution for silent voters and never will. I don’t have one either. I can only say they are present and who they are / most likely are. Nobody can predict what they’ll do.
But it is bad for Labour if the electorate keep being told it’s a dead cert victory for them. That will, in all probability, reduce turnout for them, particularly as we know there’s a lot of noses being held with a vote for them.
Opposition party voters may be motivated to try and counter as best they can. Exactly what the SNP fell foul of in 2017. They only dropped below 40% in the final poll, which had 39%.
SNP win was a dead cert and well, it wouldn’t change anything, so no need to vote…
Nice to see someone keeping the MRP tradition alive, Manufacturer’s Recommend Price…
As a rule, if turnouts look low, polls are the most inaccurate they can be.
If a pollster finds 80% are about to go out and vote, they should be damn near spot on.
50% turnout with huge levels of ‘may change mind / not sure I’ll vote / I am going to vote, but have no idea yet who for’ – which is where we are now – can change very rapidly. That or look nothing like what happened on the day.
Blair went into 1997 on 53%. Final polls were 50%. Got 43%. Silent voters.
Same for 2015 when the dead heat turned into a 7 point Tory lead. Labour oversampling. Silent Tories strike back.
From the National:
“Greens urge STV to ‘do the right thing’ and include them in leaders debate“
so they can attack the SNP all night long.
Doggone it, now they’ll defo be invited 😦
Farage has announced that he is taking over as leader of Reform from today, Starmer will be going even more right wing now to keep his new supporters on board lol
and he is standing to be MP for Clacton. He is nothing but a snake oil salesman
He’s also taking over the Leadership from Tice it seems:
Nigel Farage enters election race as he announces he will stand in Clacton for Reform UK (nation.cymru)
Tory Mk2 are in trouble, thus the return of the Mirage….
Clacton ? 230 odd miles from ‘the dreaded French”… Who said English farce was dead…
The BBC will be happy. He is one of their favourites!
The problem with this so called leaders debate in Scotland is there are actually only two party leaders in Scotland, John Swinney SNP and Patrick Harvie co leader Green party, the rest are branch managers for London’s British parties , not party leaders in their own right whatsoever
No matter how many times they repeat this nonsense about Scottish Labour or Tory or Lib Dem, there is no separation of parties from their British bosses
If there was a British band called Union they’d be the roadies
Latest R&W UK poll sees my turnout projection fall a little. 51% turnout currently predicted, down from 52%, rounded.
No mandate for Starmer remains the case.
Absolutely sweet FA has happened since the election announcement, apart from the SNP seem to have gone up a bit and Labour down in Scotland.
This election seems to be a total turnoff across the UK. Understandable when the outcome is just two different shades of sh*te.
Be prepared for weirdness on the day if this continues. We don’t know what our silent voters will do and they may never tell us. If they have decided and are not going to change their minds, they may not engage at all, but still go out to vote.
Interesting. That’s a 10k poll from R&W, who are one of the most pro-Labour going.
But it drops labour support as a function of the total electorate. They’d been creeping up a teeny bit with each poll so far.
Could just be noise, but after going up a little, my turnout prediction has been basically static for a week. That or it went up, and is now going back down.
https://archive.is/RQeS0
Yougov predicting the end of the union as the most undemocratic result ever is produced, giving Scotland, N. Ireland and Wales hated English governments they didn’t vote for which annihilate any opposition UK-wide on the lowest turnout in history.
The collapse of the UK system and the UK with it is what that poll says.
If you want to see the union continue, you’d better pray that doesn’t come off.
It’s amazing how the UK is walking into into this completely oblivious to it. I cannot believe the elephant in the room is being totally overlooked. Turnout. Only prof C has mentioned it a couple of times.
Every single number in every single poll says Labour are hated and deeply unpopular, except the only one the blind cannot help but see; headline VI. 1997 was miles away from where we are polling wise. Hell, even I was kinda optimistic what with devo coming!
Sky are right a massive change is coming. The end of the UK. And it’s not Scotland in constitutional crisis, but the whole UK. It’s all going to come crashing down.
Labour winning 65% of seats on 22% of the electorate – exactly what the same number of voters they got in 2019 – could not cause anything but the end of the UK. To suffer your worst defeat since 1935 then win the biggest majority in like a century without having won over anyone new means the whole edifice is coming crashing down. It’s broken and cannot be fixed. It needs burned to the ground and rebuilt.
What Scots now are seeing is that they can never get a UK government they voted for. 2/3 are planning to vote to oppose Labour, and that’s without any quiet SNP appearing out of the woodwork.
If they all vote SNP, they still get a hated English government they didn’t vote for. You want to know why they are silent. It will be this. They need to make a massive decision soon. A final one. If not in the next few weeks, then by 2026.
The only option is independence. Scots must now choose. Never get a government you want, but only one you hate which destroys your country. Or grasp the thistle. Take a leap of faith in your nation. Stand up and be one again. You have 2 chances in a row to do this.
The choice is yours.
Starmer ( and Lickspittle Sarwar ) happy to endorse the mind-numbingly expensive but totally useless UK Nuclear arsenal ( as long as it is kept as far from Westminster as pos.).
Starmer willing to ”push the button” to demonstrate that he doesn’t give a f*ck about human life . This we already knew by his behaviour over Gaza !
In 2 mins you can show how yougov’s MRP is just a lot of shite.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49606-first-yougov-mrp-of-2024-general-election-shows-labour-on-track-to-beat-1997-landslide
SNP collapsing in Scotland, but with a chance of taking Orkney and Shetland due to a massive Yes surge. Jeez, even in 2015 they couldn’t do it.
Greens going to take 10% of the vote under FPTP! Woo-Hoo! Patrick will be click his heels at this. Reform surging! 8% in Orkney and Shetland!
God help the uk if this poll is true and SNP + Green is well into the low 40’s 5 weeks out. Vs labour that’s 40 to 33, 37 to 28, 42 to 35, 44 to 36 and so on in what they are saying are marginals. Labour destroyed, and that’s assuming Greens get more than usual.
Maybe the SNP will take Orkney and Shetland when the FPTP tactical kicks in. 🙂
VI calc from the table looks like this with changes on 17th.
11(-1)% Con
34(-5)% Lab
5(-2)% Lib
33(+4)% SNP
7(-)% Green
4(-)% Reform
≤2(-)% Alba
42% Yes while Yessers are totally disengaged from pollsters and unionists are being heavily oversampled. That’s quite promising. 11% Con is far more sensible than some of the silliness we’ve been seeing. Con should be just over half in Scotland what it is UK-wide.
17% ‘other’ (Green, Alba, reform etc) is really funny. People taking this seriously on the English news. Bless. They really don’t know what a shitstorm is coming their way.
Supports a sharp gap closure suggested by other polls.
Time wise, it’s about a week ago in terms of main fieldwork, so same timeframe as polls showing the same rise gap closure. Silent SNP still very much silent.