Voters in most of the UK have a very clear choice at the next Westminster general election, they can vote for the British flag shagging party, or they can vote for the British flag shagging party. Keir Starmer constantly boasts about how he has changed the Labour party, it is not an idle boast, he has indeed changed the Labour party, he has changed it into what the Tories used to be before the narrow victory for leave in 2016’s EU referendum drove them over the edge into the insanity of further and further right wing anti-foreigner English nationalist populism.
The Tories are now full on deranged. It’s a party which is all consumed by its internal power struggles and which has lost all sight of political reality. Many Tory MPs are now so far down the G Beebies rabbit hole that they genuinely believe that all they need to do in order to restore their party’s fortunes is to stick a few asylum seekers on a one way flight to Rwanda, preferably after a fight with the European Court of Human Rights, or to have yet another leadership change and replace the hopeless and unpopular Rishi Sunak with some other leader who will quickly reveal themselves to be equally as hopeless and unpopular.
It’s easy, and let’s be honest, highly enjoyable, to take pleasure in the misfortunes of a deeply nasty and unpleasant Conservative party, but it is dangerous to pretend that the threat from right wing English nationalist authoritarian populism will be gone once the Tories receive their well deserved drubbing at the polls.
British politics are uniquely and dangerously susceptible to being taken over by the forces of right wing populism. In no small measure this is due to the characteristics of British nationalism, a nationalism which has at its core the unshakeable belief that it is better than the nationalism of lesser nations by virtue of not being nationalist at all. British nationalism is functionally indistinguishable from English nationalism but the structure of the UK, comprised as it is by three entire nations and a part of a fourth enables the dominant English nationalist driving force of British politics to cloak itself in a false internationalism which disguises the true nature of Anglo-British nationalist populism.
This makes it easy for far right authoritarian forces to become influential in British politics while hiding their true nature as populist nationalists. This is precisely what has been the trajectory of British politics over the past few years, a process which has accelerated rapidly since the narrow victory of the leave campaign in the 2016 EU referendum. Since then, both the Labour and Conservative parties have shifted sharply to the right.
British politics are now more unstable and faster moving than they have been in living memory, the current drooling rage-fest that is the Tory party, trundling along 20 points behind in the polls and facing a likely electoral collapse was riding high just five years ago and won a landslide victory in 2019. With the volatile state of British politics it could easily do so again at the general election after the next one, a task which will be facilitated by a new Labour government which is likely to become unpopular very rapidly as the promise of ‘change’ upon which it was elected turns out to be as threadbare as the promises which Starmer made to secure the leadership of the Labour party and then trashed as soon as he got his feet under the desk.
Out of power the Tories are likely to pivot even further to the right, fully embracing an intolerant authoritarian right wing Anglo-British nationalism. Over the weekend, the Sunday Telegraph reported that an internal poll of the Conservative party found that almost half of all Tory councillors think the current government is “too left-wing”. Meanwhile the Conservative Post website, funded by the billionaire Conservative donor Peter Cruddas, who was controversially given a peerage by Boris Johnson in 2020, has published a hit list of so called ‘liberal centrists’ whom it wants to see deselected as Tory candidates for not being sufficiently right wing and Thatcherite. The website has asked its readers to contact the local Conservative associations of the named MPs to urge their deselection as candidates and their replacement by candidates on the right of the party.
Those named include Victoria Atkins, the Health Secretary, and Alicia Kearns and Caroline Nokes, who chair select committees, as well as Laura Trott, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Tobias Ellwood, the former defence select committee chairman, Alan Mak, the business minister, Bim Afolami, and MPs, Roger Gale, Simon Hoare and Alberto Costa.
Following what increasingly looks like an inevitable general election defeat the Tory right will be in the ascendant and Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch will both fancy their chances of seizing the leadership while Boris Johnson will be eyeing his chances of making a come back. The Tory party will complete its conversion into an anti-immigration authoritarian right wing populist party in the mould of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party in Hungary of the woefully misnamed Truth and Justice Party in Poland.
The rightward shift of the Conservatives has a similar effect on the Labour party, which itself triangulates to the right as it attempts to prevent support from haemorrhaging on its right and to forestall criticism from an increasingly right wing media. This is already happening. Just this weekend shadow foreign secretary David Lammy published a piece in The Sun defending the use of the Union flag on Labour campaign flyers Lammy said anyone complaining about the Union flag on Labour material had it “wrong”.
Lammy defended the use of the flag by appealing to that other favourite trope of right wing British nationalists, WW2. He wrote: It was the flag that went to battle against Hitler’s racism. I’ve always felt abandoning it to racists was a betrayal of its anti-fascist heritage.”
Further proof of the Torification of the Labour party comes from shadow health secretary Wes Streeting, who in an article in The Sun over the weekend – The Sun is seemingly the go-to publication for Starmer’s Labour party, has written that as Health Secretary in a future Labour government he would force NHS England to use services from the private health sector. During his campaign for the leadership of the Labour party, Starmer insisted that he would not talk to The Sun. Chalk that up as yet another of his many lies.
Using language which would not be out of place on GB News, Streeting claimed that people complaining about increased use of private services in the NHS were “middle-class lefties” – and tried to draw a dividing line between them and “working families”. Apparently in the eyes of the modern Labour party you cannot be left wing and part of a “working family”. Who knew?
Meanwhile Josh Simons, the director of the very influential Labour thinktank Labour Together, published a piece in the Telegraph chock full of the same right wing tropes so beloved by the Tory right in which he claimed that the government “have not made the average working family better off, just increased our population”. Adding that “migrants should contribute to the pot before they take from it”, and “homes should be built for British citizens before those who live here temporarily”. This is the same guy who recently suggested that asylum seekers should be sent to a “remote” Scottish island, prompting Labour’s Scottish branch office to claim disingenuously that the director of a Labour think tank that was influential in Starmer’s victory in the Labour leadership campaign in 2020 and which remains highly influential with the Labour leadership is a “fringe” figure.
British politics is on a dangerously right wing and intolerant trajectory, the flag shagging is the least of our worries.
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Indeed.
Well, looks like Starmer’s Labour is aiming to give freebies to their mates, same as the Tories right now in power. Why else would Streeting vow to force NHS England to use private sector services? I’m pretty sure Starmer is counting on the left-leaning voters feeling they have no choice but Labour because the more it goes, the more his campaign looks like a very uninspiring “welcome the new guy, same as the old guy”.
OT – CalMac ferry Glen Rosa is successfully launched. Even the BBC have had to admit it and make it their top story.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-68765167
Second top on the live news to Celtic football club
No they have promoted it to first slot. They do have nice footage of the boat going into the water.
However, the disappointment from unionist quarters is palpable and the pithy comments on other sites rather sad. When did wishing to see the death of an industry become a political expedient?
I have no doubt that they will pick themselves up and focus intensive greeting about something else. My bet is on duelling the A9 but I’m sure there will be other things jostling for position for the BBC to give almost daily whines about.
I still will never understand why folk in Scotland still want to vote for a political party and system run and controlled by weight of population numbers by another country (England) to control Scotland
If America asked them to vote for a political party in their elections would they want to do that only to be outnumbered hundreds to one by that population? because that’s what happens in general elections in the UK, Scotland is outnumbered ten to one by the population of England
The UK is treated as one country by England when it comes to votes that matter to them because they know they will win every single time
Are they interested in local elections? not in the slightest really, because they know that all the power lies in England, that’s why only their dummies are *appointed* to sit in our Scottish parliament to do nothing more than bang the drum on behalf of England to disrupt delay and demean all and every piece of work attempted by the Scottish Executive Government
If everybody voted SNP in Scotland we’d soon have an actual powerful government with real authority like normal countries do
A vote not for the SNP is just a vote for more England control, and I rather like my drinking water minus shit and cocaine, and my free prescriptions and travel, and my granddaughter going to University because she’s quite clever and not just because she can afford to pay for it
If we’d done this in 2014 we’d be in the EU by now keeping our own money to spend here in our own country, Scotland wouldn’t be a Russian nuclear target and we’d have as big a say on world forums as any other country regardless of population
Scotland would be a country instead of an English property that their fit up Supreme Court can tell us we can’t ask ourselves questions if or when we want to
One country when it suits England, nobodies the rest of the time, how is that even remotely close to being a union?
Please please please please please use those butcher’s apron leaflets in Scotland Labour. Please. Will love you forever!
Do you think Sarwar would dare to point out to his master that the apron is toxic here? Would be a massive own goal if they went for the same image as in England. Don’t think our Welsh friends would like it either.
they should use the butchers apron as they are an English party with a Scottish sub office
Is that a flyer for an Orange Order march or Labour leaflet hen?
Of course not.
We don’t even figure on the damn thing in the first place although we belong to “a family of nations” in “a precious union” dontcha know?
I’m sticking to the draig goch.
Was a reply to @McElroy Art Studio.
[…] Source […]
I’m compiling a list of political parties / organisations / groups whose publicity materials feature the union jack heavily. Here is what I’ve got so far:
Brexit Party
Britain First
British National Party
Conservative & Unionist Party
Democratic Unionist Party
Labour Party
National Front
Orange Order
Reform UK
Traditional Unionist Voice
UKIP
Ulster Defence Association
Ulster Volunteer Force
Vanguard Bears (Rangers FC)
Any to add?
Oh, and don’t be surprised if Labour do use those Union Jack leaflets in Scotland. After all, they are only on 32% (of a record low certain to vote / turnout projection) – their best polling since the prior to the 2015 SNP landslide – because 1/3 of that has come from Tory 2019. If Labour is to win some seats here, on top of a historic low turnout, it needs the British loyalist vote, as it has lost a lot of it’s traditional centre-left voters to the SNP / Greens and, recently, Yes + not sure yet.
Why?
Why what?
Why make a list? What for?
Are you serious?
For the benefit of the doubt, the first part of my post had <sarcasm> tags. I obviously don’t have such a pet project, and am not seeking contributions to the list. 🙂
However, on the them of the blog post, a few minutes of list building with tongue in cheek shows the company the former left of centre British Labour party is now keeping. Lovely.
Remember, it was the post-war social-democratic consensus driven by the Labour party that, for the first time ever, created a sense of British identity in Scotland. This helped hold the UK together as the age of empires came to a close, and the sun began to set on the British one, with countries leaving it to become independent one after another.
British identity peaks in those born in 1944, and declines either side of this. Thatcher started that work, Blair continued it, but at a slightly slower pace, before Cameron et al sped things up again, with Brexit added as an accelerant. Scots born into a devolved Scotland are the least British in identity of any generation. They – the future – are Scottish and European. Hence they are 3/4 Yes.
New One Nation Conservative Labour – which there is absolutely no doubt is Starmer’s goal, i.e. to replace the Tories as the ‘natural party of England’ ergo rule forever and a day – is gearing up to destroy what’s left of the post-war social-democratic Britain the Labour party originally built.
It will be the end of the UK as a result. The first PM of a united ‘British’ Britain was a Labour one. The last will be too it seems.
FYI there are no <sarcasm> tags on your comment that I can see. Perhaps it’s my browser. Also, you do invite additions to your list.
What I think Paul is writing about here is the jingoism of the current Tory and Labour parties and others who use aggressive nationalism to stir up hatred of foreigners, benefit scroungers and other enemies of the state.
I wouldn’t apply that to e.g. the British Heart Foundation or the RNLI if they put a union jack on a leaflet.
Today’s Daily Mail front page is a perfect example of the toxic language the Tories and aspiring Labour use.
The actual narrative is confined to a small rectangle, dwarfed by photos and large headlines. Such is the literary quality of tabloid newspapers. It goes some way to explaining why Boris Johnson became Prime Minister.
Must be a problem with WordPress coding on the sarcasm tags. It’s a new feature, so maybe not working on all browsers yet. I’m using the tags again for this paragraph. Is it working?
I had a look and don’t see any union jacks on the website of the British Heart Foundation website nor that of the RNLI. A google image search on both comes up with nothing either.
I guess that’s because they are apolitical charities. My list was of jingoistic nationalist groups / parties / organisations in the UK, as per Paul’s article.
I note the RNLI was recently on the receiving end of abuse from racist jingoistic union jack wavers because it rescues non-British people in danger of drowning from La Manche. I donated to it in response.
No – there are no sarcasm tags here either. I use the Opera browser.
Charities might well produce leaflets with union jacks on them, which is what you were originally talking about.
Also our local Co-op (HQ in Manchester)has fruit and veg in bags with union jacks on them too. I would prefer Saltires if they must have a flag but most supermarkets are “British”.
I take it from your first line you have discovered how to use the tags in question.
If you can find charity flyers emblazed with union jacks, then you’ll have found a jingoistic nationalistic charity. I had a look and even Help for Heroes doesn’t go down this route. One or two jacks, but within real life images. Unavoidable given who the charity supports.
A flag indicating country of origin of a food isn’t by default jingoistic. I used to buy Wensleydale from Tesco which had a little St. Georges cross in the corner. That’s not jingoistic nationalism.
But yes, some supermarkets do stray into jingoism when they have union flag packaging, bunting, labelling… flags hanging from the ceiling etc.
Yes I use the formatting tags in the text box. But there are no “sarcasm” tags and your reply had no formatting to indicate you intended to be sarcastic.
You were talking about leaflets and not websites. The Lib Dems don’t have union jacks on their website but may well put one on a leaflet.
People in Scotland can vote SNP. Keep the unionists out. A higher turnout. Vote for Independence. Self determination and self governance. UN principles.
Starmer is only doing what his backers have told him to do. He is a tool of big business and the right wing media barons just as much as the Tories are.
They will put him into power and they expect their pound of flesh once he gets the keys to No 10. Privitisation of the NHS IN, support for those looking for a pay rise due to inflation eroding their wages OUT.
I doubt we have seen the true Starmer yet and have only scratched the surface, I have no doubt he will “crack down” on the very people his party once fought for and the same people who literally built the party up from nothing.
If you are thinking of voting for Starmer’s Labour party in order to get rid of the Tories” then I have bad news for you. You are electing a Tory every bit as right wing as Thatcher ever was, and that’s a fact. Just wait and see.
Again why do millionaires and multi millionaires try so hard to be elected to the position of UK government PM when the only certainty is five years in that position?
Nobody can change the fortunes or culture of any country in five years so why do folk believe these people when they say they can but never do, and usually leave their position ignominiously?
Point out any British PM who didn’t accrue many more personal £millions during and following their premiership, and yet the job only pays around £150 grand per year
Why do they do it? Duh !
If you were FFM of Scotland, prior to Alex Salmond Nicola Sturgeon and currently Humza Yousaf you get rewarded by England’s PM a Lordship or Baroness and your personal wealth increases for life, if you were or are SNP FFM you can expect being hounded while in and out of the office of FM and be rewarded by zero wealth increase except for the wages you received for the job because there are no big corporations and businesses going to bung SNP FMs for the simple reason they can’t hand out honours and multi million £ contracts that are not scrutinised to the last red penny
The PM of the UK can piss £billions up against a wall and it’s a 30 second news item that disappears from view overnight
Lose one penny in Scotland, make one mistake, one wrong step, one out of the norm decision and your life is made not worth living by every media broadcaster for the entire tenure of your career
So which politicians don’t do the job for the money? Which politicians are more likely to be working for their country? the SNP or Labour Tory and Liberal Democrat?
Answer that and you know what to vote
OT – Just 4 days more to get to see free the People’s Palace until 2027. Winter gardens not open.
https://www.glasgowlife.org.uk/museums/venues/peoples-palace
“The People’s Palace will close on Sunday 14 April for a major refurbishment.“
Flags and those who wave them :
” I don’t get all choked up about flags . I see them as symbols , and I leave them to the symbol-minded .”( George Carlin )
”Nationalism is just racism with a flag .” ( Peter Joseph )
”The man who is always waving the flag usually waives what it stands for .”
( Laurence J Peter )
”Don’t waive your rights with your flags .” ( Sage Francis )
”There are those who wrap themselves in flags and blow the tinny trumpet of patriotism as a means of fooling the people . ” ( George ‘the hat’ Galloway )
”The less a statesman amounts to , the more he loves the flag .” ( Kin Hubbard )
”Even Pirates , before they attack a ship , raise a flag !” ( Bela Kiraly )
”They’re counting on your patriotism to distract you from their plunder ; they’re counting on you standing to attention , hand on heart , pledging allegiance to the flag while they pick your pocket .” ( Bill Moyers )
At least our kids don’t have to salute the flag in class as in the USA.
Yet…?
People can wave the Saltire and many do. People can vote SNP and vote for Independence. Many do. Increasing all the time.
Yes, but Scotland isn’t an independent country, but the UK is.
Scots wave the saltire in support of freedom and democracy. UK parties wrap themselves in the union jack in the pursuit of small minded, right-wing nationalism.
It’s not the Scots Welsh or Irish that pretend to the world they’re more than they are by reinventing all of us as one national identity and country and creating a flag to represent that
I do think many in Scotland wave their Saltire to demonstrate that they exist, what they don’t want to be a part of, and what they’re against, whereas the people who wave the union flag are demonstrating a confirmation of colonial authority over others even if many of them don’t understand that they’re doing that, because they think the union flag is the flag of the reinvented country of *Britain*
The only time England seems unashamed of their own St George’s flag is at sporting occasions they feel they can win, the Olympics or Eurovision for example which they know they can’t win requires them to envelop other nations and name them *Team UK* in order to look more powerful, or their military all slapped with the one reinvented nationality, so when you think about it England needs us to look good to themselves and others, whereas most of the rest of us are quite happy to be who we are and join in with the world as opposed to overpower or impress anybody else, so it’s England that has the identity problem, not Scotland Wales or even indeed Northern Ireland, most of us are quite happy being who we are
What is the famous *British* phrase?
“Project our power around the world”
There’s an awfy lot that England *isn’t* without Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland, and it makes their politicians very afraid
The marchers with saltires…. the flag backgrounds of SNP materials etc will vanish like snaw aff a dyke when Scots for vote independence*…
…only to reappear on Scottish centre-right party paraphernalia.
Two very different uses of our national flag. The latter usage is jingoistic nationalism, the former is not, but in relation to a civil rights / democracy movement.
—-
*Apart from once a year, when they’ll come out again in commemoration of the day Scotland became a free democracy.
They’re attracted to Starmer’s New Conservatives like flies are to sh*t.
https://archive.is/OSE6U
Scottish Labour candidate Wilma Brown called out for ‘racist’ tweets
A SCOTTISH Labour candidate has been called out for liking and sharing “dozens and dozens” of “racist, Islamophobic and transphobic” posts on social media.
Wilma Brown, who is running in the Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy constituency where Alba’s Neale Hanvey is MP, has been accused of spreading “conspiracy nonsense” by a resident of the area, Adam le Grice, who has compiled a thread of offensive posts she has liked and retweeted on Twitter/X...
…It comes after Scottish Labour suspended Glasgow councillor Audrey Dempsey, who is at the centre of a storm over her offensive social media posts and her intense focus on “anti-white racism”, which she claims is on the rise.
As I said above, Starmer needs the votes of these people, and on a record low turnout, if he’s to make gains in Scotland / UK-wide. If these don’t vote Labour, i.e. the folks that moved to Lab from Con 2019, most markedly post mini-budget, Labour would struggle to win any additional seats here.
Which is why I believe there’s a very good chance he will use the union jack bumph in Scotland, even of ‘Scottish’ labour protest against this. Which they should, as they know this will cost them seats by encouraging Scots to come out and vote SNP.
I see Sarwar is silent on Labour’s plans to force privatisation on the NHS. Another English Labour attack on it’s Scottish branch office / Scottish unionism. This is what is sending Labour voters to Yes in record numbers. Starmer is who put Yes in majority over the past year. He ‘delivered’ this.
New yougov poll, Labour ahead SNP, SNP on 18 seats:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?type=scotland&SCOTCON=14&SCOTLAB=33&SCOTLIB=7&SCOTNAT=31&SCOTReform=7&SCOTGreen=5.03&display=AllChanged®orseat=%28none%29&boundary=2019nbbase
It’s not too late to go back to a de facto referendum and win not lose.
Another very bad poll for the unionists for their own union parliament.
Labour lose the election in Scotland badly, with 7/10 rejecting London rule by a Starmer labour government. Like the Tories before them, Labour would have no mandate for Scotland. This is a thatcher level of unpopularity, and the last time they were looking better than this in polls was ahead of 2015.
Statistically, it’s a no change (within MoE) poll on their last one in October 2013. Certain to vote is lower, hence labour gain a fraction within MoE. They have not gained any voters since October, being stuck on 19% of the total electorate sure to vote for them.
From my records, this is the lowest level of CTV I’ve ever seen in a Yougov; a testament to Scots now wanting independence, and not seats in Westminster.
Just 36% of the eligible electorate saying they are sure they’ll go out and vote for a unionist party. Like other polls, this is down on the 36.2% that did this in 2019.
The nonsense nature of the poll is shown by the 7% for reform. Yougov had Brexit Party on 6% at this stage ahead of 2019, as an accuracy reference. They got 0%.
So all going well for Yes. Not for the SNP if they just want seats in Westminster for another parliamentary term though. If they want votes in this election, they need to put that ‘For Scottish independence‘ on the ballot. That would make it a defacto iref.
What is brilliant about these polls, is Starmer will be emboldened to keep moving right, even though he’s losing Scotland because of is. The polls are misleading people into believing unionism is making a comeback, when they actually say this is not the case if you look just beyond the headline VI.
Oh, and Yes is also unchanged at 47%, consistent with absolutely nothing having measurably happened in the past 6 months.
This means on average, Yes has been in majority for 4.5 months now, officially.
And that’s with polls seemingly overrepresenting No voters.
This poll gives all the unionist newspapers something to print that looks bad for the SNP, plus the usual internet trolls and misery guts love filling up the reply columns with their portents of doom while they blame the SNP for the rain falling from the sky
Just take a look at the supposedly independence friendly National newspaper, full of Alba and anti independence angry people lying through their teeth
They always give the game away though, they can’t help themselves, it always ends up Nicola Sturgeon’s fault even though she was the single biggest vote winner Scotland and the SNP have ever had, poor Humza Yousaf just gets the latest invented rhetoric insulting name calling by the Alba and Unionist nut jobs
Propaganda folks, it’s all it is because even if they do manage to convince some folk that Labour would be better, they’ll be changing their minds big time in a matter of months and never admitting it was them that voted Labour out of shame
Only those that voted Brexit will vote Labour because they have no shame and very little brains, so unionists
A vote not for the SNP is a vote for England rule, it doesn’t matter which party it is, they’re all the same, not Scottish
There – is – no – Independence – without – the – SNP.
Not in our lifetime anyway.
“Another very bad poll for the unionists for their own union parliament.“
No – it – is – not
It is not a good poll for the SNP unless they stop listening to daft spinners.
I quote myself:
<i>So all going well for Yes. Not for the SNP if they just want seats in Westminster for</i>
Yes has not fallen, so all going well there. Not good for the SNP if their aim is just seats, as I said.
Sorry, but can you explain how unionist parties combined having less support in terms of real, physical voters, compared to 2019 is good for the union? I thought good meant more support?
In 2019, in Yougov’s final poll, they had 67% certain to vote in Scotland, which was almost spot on (68% turned out). This has 59%, which is a record low. So Lab/Con/Lib/Reform just look up. They are not actually up, but down slightly in terms of real voters. Or at best they have stood still. Checking calc:
Now: 0.61*59 CTV = 36% of electorate sure to vote unionist
2019: 0.54*68 TO = 37% of electorate did vote unionist
The missing CTV share are Yes voters, as it’s only the SNP impacted by the CTV drop. And it’s not SNP 2019 saying they won’t vote. Nope, they’re some of the most certain. So we are missing 12% of 2019 ‘always vote’ voters who supported SNP before. Pollsters are unable to reach them. We don’t know what they’ll do, which means our VI numbers are super uncertain.
It’s not like this is confined to Scotland. It’s the same in England. Labour have gained no voters there net. It’s just turnouts below 50% are favouring them.
What makes you think the poll is remotely accurate? Do you really believe that 5% will vote Green and 7% Reform in Scotland? On what are you basing this? certainly not historical precedent. If you believe SNP vs Lab numbers, you need to believe the whole poll. If you put silliness into seat predictors, you’ll get them to output silliness, as you did. You actually posted seat predictions with 7% reform and 5% Green. 🙂
Polls were predicting 6% Brexit party at this time ahead of 2019. The were also predicting SNP less than 40%. How’d that go?
You can spin all you like, but the poll is good for indy, bad for the union and not good for the SNP if their interest is seats in Westminster. It’s also naff all change in 6 months.
If the SNP put ‘For Scottish indy’ on the ballot, I want them to do well as it makes it a defacto ref. If they don’t, which is the case right now, I’m not personally that interested as nothing will change, so I’ll be looking to 2026. I don’t know if those missing SNP are thinking the same. They might be. All we know is we don’t know what they are planning to do.
That poll shows that 9% absolutely would not vote, that is they give 0 out of 10 for intention to vote. There are also 17% saying they don’t know how they will vote and 3% refusing to even answer.
I think these figures are much higher than typically would be expected or am I just wrong and these are about normal?
Also could you do one of your graphs showing the % who say they will vote SNP and Labour from both Ipsos and Yougov in a UK general elecction from the past year or so? I think the comparison will be interesting as at least one of them have to be wrong.
That’s something I’d not thought to check, i.e. the level of ‘0/10’. These will be people who never ever vote. If that has increased, it suggest we are missing regular voters, with the respondent pool being diluted by non-voters.
Thanks!
Meanwhile:
Support for ‘others’, UK election Scotland:
2024 15.0% Yougov April 2024
2019 1.7%
2017 0.7%
2015 3.3%
2010 2.0%
Oki doki Yougov! Righto!
This is normal mid-term silliness. 15% ‘other’ under FPTP on a super low CTV level means you need to take polls with a barrel of salt.
Ok, the big drop in certain to vote ties in with a sharp rise in the ‘certain not to vote’ (CNTV).
That suggests we do have oversampling of people who never vote, rather than SNP 2019 saying ‘Not sure I’ll vote’, which isn’t the case, and would cause people to move to e.g. 5, not 0. This former is seen in Tory 2019 in England. These are not totally silent, they are saying they are not sure they’ll vote. In Scotland, we seem to have complete silence from a key group.
So aye, tied with the clear data showing SNP 2019 became harder to reach as their VI went down, so we have lots more ‘never vote’ folks being sampled. That’s what happens if you can’t reach regular voters, your sample becomes diluted by non-voters.
So polls are oversampling unionists and non-voters, hence nonsense numbers like 15% other. If you remove SNP, everyone else goes up, including ‘other’, which is at just comically stupid levels
Nobody should seriously enter 15% ‘other’ (Green etc) into an FPTP seat predictor and expect sense to come out. That will just cause havoc with marginals. Imaginary havoc.
Do people really believe polls 6 months out from elections? What kind of madness is this? Are folks smoking Amsterdam’s finest?
Polls are basically never correct this far out. I mean F**k me. How many times to polls have to be completely wrong before people thing ‘well, we should take polls with a pinch of salt’? FHS, polls told us for the first 3 months of 2011 that Ian Grey was to be our FM, and was heading for a possible historic majority. They told us all the way to late 2014 than Scots were absolutely going to come home to Labour post iref1. They told us the SNP would romp home in 2017, then that they’d have another bad 2017-type result in 2019. Most recently they had the SNP on 55% for Holyrood 2021 as we entered election year.
It was all mid term sh*te.
This is why parties should never, ever base policy on opinion polls, because they are highly unreliable.
That said, if the SNP don’t give folks a reason to turn out, they may not do so. Seats in Westminster are something Scots don’t want anymore, so the SNP need to offer more. A clear way to progress indy I venture will get people out.
There’s a kind of pre-emptive delight of some commentators to hopefully predict doom just so they can crow that they were right if it turns out they might be, and I think that says more about the personality and intentions of the people who engage in that type of commentary when they post their portents of doom on websites that are intended to boost the confidence of supporters of independence
Online blogs really don’t influence the outcomes of elections because most regular folk don’t engage in reading these things, it’s only we more engaged or involved geeky types that follow political machinations more closely that have any interest in the minutiae, so our opinions tend to be pretty much set before we comment on political proceedings, and why I am always suspicious in the extreme of those commentators who constantly raise questions of doubt and pedantry in which the general public have no interest, or to point out predictions of failures with a kind of angry joy that no one else will listen to or support
In a general election in the United Kingdom England decides who will be the winner, that’s an arithmetical fact and has been for the entirety of my life, it’s one of the reasons why England’s government invented the notion that each country of the UK becomes one country on these occasions, just simply so that by weight of numbers England wins every single time
We are not one country, it’s an indisputable fact, and yet we tolerate England claiming that we are when it comes to whatever it is they want to politically achieve in the form of a general election that Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland have less chance of ever winning than the £100 million jackpot Lottery
It’s a farce and a nonsense to take part in it, but if we do not then the forces of darkness that is English politics would immediately claim that all three other countries of the UK are delighted with England’s decision over which English political party England elects, and definite proof that we no longer wish to have parliaments or executives of our own
The great British empire would not have been created if England thought for one second that they would not profit from every country that they conquered, in what universe do some folk still believe the humungous lie that England holds on to Scotland out of some benign fondness for it’s inhabitants
At one time Scotland was held on to for land sheep soldiers workers trees, then it became coal steel ships engineering, then oil and gas and now electricity and fresh water, and all that is apart from our world class food and drink production and sales and many many other things
England is not Scotland’s friend and benign neighbour that we share things with in a union in gratitude for them ruling us, England is a vile thieving landlord that puts up our rent in perpetuity to subsidise themselves
If Scotland were a barren wasteland that could produce nothing of value and was of no strategic assistance to England does anyone really believe they would continue with this fake union? of course they would not
Full Stem Ahead!
The iceberg will give way.
To be fair 6 months out leaves a lot of space for events to overtake any of the parties or indeed the whole country.
One would anticipate that Labour will walk the election in England but there is many a slip twixt cup and lip. The Tories could have even worse calamities and get totally wiped out or the tabloids find a Labour bone to worry and chew on eating away at any soft Tory vote that might have gone their way.
Or the Excess might finally be proved right and we will all be marching off to WW3.
As the saying goes, 6 months is a very short time in politics!
No wait, that’s not it…
Indeed H&S.
At the moment it’s a case of which of the 3 main parties in Scotland are doing the best at self-destruction.
Perhaps some kind person should warn them of the perils ahead? They have 8 months max to change their course, and hopefully it’s the SNP take heed.
7% Reform, 5% Green and 2% other here we come! 🙂
M’on ‘others’. No more 2% on average for you! It’s time for 15%! Woo-hoo!
Iceberg examples:
Mon Ian Gray!
Mon SNP!
What incredible foresight pollsters!
I don’t know what’s going to happen other that we can put a lot of money on the result looking nothing like current polls, as usual. 15% other. Oki doki. Righto. At least the above outcomes seemed totally credible at the time. Only an idiot spends £5k on something that predicts utter guff like 15% other.
If you believe polls are accurate this time, finally, after decades of being wrong this far out, I’m all ears as to how you came to this conclusion? Me, I’m not certain at all. I have no crystal ball like you have?
However, if polls are showing total contradictions (e.g. SNP down, Yes moving to majority, Lab up but Starmer / Sarwar heading down…), historic low CTVs and other nonsense (15% other), then salt pinching definitely needed. Most likely problem is mid-term sampling issues.
Oh, and you do realise we are not the SNP?
We can’t go ‘full steam ahead’ as we are not sailing a ship.
We are some members of the public watching several ships from afar, discussing their manoeuvres.
We have no hotline to the SS SNP Bridge to demand Yousaf change direction because we saw someone had erm, ‘reliably’ predicted a dangerous storm at port he’s heading for six months before arrival.
We could all angrily demand the SNP get a new leader / change direction etc all we wanted. That would be a gigantic waste of time. Only idiots waste their time on Yes blogs / National articles making such totally pointless demands of the SNP day in and day out.
As I’ve personally said multiple times, I think the SNP need to have ‘For Scottish indy’ on the ballot and get that message – i.e. it’s a defacto vote for indy if you vote for them – out there if they want to get Yes people out to vote. However, strategically I would organise the first part with zero fanfare, and only announce the second part once the campaign starts. No point giving the game away to your opponents early. They are underway on the first part I understand.
That said, I could be totally wrong here. I can only speculate.
Oh der, wht pity, never mind…
Flounce doesn’t have an A in it…
My thoughts on polls are that the ones that use exclusively as their sample members of the public that have signed up to be be a paid member of their polling pool. It is doubtful that any polling poll can be a truly random sample which even though the polls are weighted to be representative they have an inbuilt bias as being representative of people who sign up to be polled.
So, this is true for Yougov, Survation and Panelbase among others who right now are generally showing lower voting intention for the SNP than Ipsos who use random telephone polling from which to weight their polls.
There is something else that bugs me too, it does seem that the polls I actually get to see are nearly always favourable for the group that commissioned them, I guess if they weren’t then they would likely never see the light of day.
This is correct. IPSOS is phone fully random sampling, but they still need the person to pick up and agree to be polled. They are not immune if certain groups are being hard to reach.
However, panel polling needs the respondent to take the initiative. If you are disengaged, you won’t do this. You’ll just not sign up or ignore that email.
However, if your phone is ringing, you pick up and the polite person from IPSOS asks if you mind a few questions, well then why say no? It’s not like you object to being polled, it’s more a lack of motivation that’s stopped you with Yougov etc.
I see there is a R&W poll out too. It shows absolutely no change as well.
Ok that’s not true. That just applies to VI within MOE,
It has Yes now in majority. A decent wee swing too, which might indicate some real movement and not variance. Nice. Unionists keep moving to indy at a steady pace.
51(+3)% Yes
49(-3%) No
Unionists – can you not see that iceberg? Or are you too busy attacking at the ships?
Yousaf’s approval has shot up 11% too. Scottish government approval jumped up as well post hate-crime bill.
Doing well here:
38% approve of the Scottish Government’s performance on Scottish independence, compared to 33% who disapprove.
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/scottish-independence-referendum-westminster-voting-intention-6-7-april-2024/
No has been losing support since Yousaf took over. ~10% fall. Jeezo.
It’s gone mostly to don’t know. As I keep saying, it is the unionists driving their own supporters away. Yes parties need to go say hello to these.
Haha that was very timely, check out the state of the “don’t knows”, unprecedented rise from around 5% to 14%!
This is the ‘most recent’ one too. That yougov is coming on a week old. 🙂
Holy sh*t. Yes 49% among 2019 Labour. 39% for the hardest of hardcore Labour 2021.
These are some of the highest levels of Yes for Lab I’ve ever seen.
Oh dear, they have a big disappointment coming once they find out that Starmer is a Tory and as right wing as Thatcher!
2% of the Scottish pop is Muslim. They are not taking over. 7% of the UK pop. 40% live in deprived areas.
Unionist propaganda.
Labour illegal wars, tax evasion, financial fraud. Killing and maiming millions. Illegal wars causing migration. Bombing and killing people. Destroying homes.
Tory Brexit putting up prices. Low growth. Lost the nearest, largest market, Now tariffs. Less trade and bad balance of payments. Tory austerity. More people in hardship and debt. Standard of living fallen. Cost of living increased. More people struggling to pay bills. Increased poverty.
The ferries are afloat. Saving £Billions in fuel. Innovative technology.
Racist British Labour candidate has been suspended.
You can feel BBC North Britain’s pain at having to report this.
They need to watch out for the racist Labour iceberg looming large. It’s sending Labour voters to Yes.
https://archive.is/mOyIC
Labour suspends candidate accused of liking racist posts
A Scottish Labour candidate has been suspended after she was accused of liking racist and Islamophobic social media posts, the BBC understands.
Wilma Brown, the candidate for Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy appears to have deleted her Twitter/X account after local activist Adam Le Grice highlighted the issue...
…Ms Brown was previously pictured campaigning with the Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer in Kirkcaldy in May last year.
And Anas Sarwar said in a statement? Oops can’t find him, again
Sadly I think the racist angle is going to feature in the next election. I’ve seen Unionist types on Facebook trying to spread the Humza supports Hamas lie (which a couple of Labour people have bow fallen foul of) and I think both Sarwar and Sunak will encounter issues too. There is a nasty undercurrent brewing and I would urge all SNP supporters (actually all parties come to think of it) to keep that sort of thing at arms length. Unfortunately a small number of people can spread a lot of bile on social media.
Even the BBC are at it with their Humza’s brother in law “sins of the relatives” story
I know, not even a blood relative.
Poor King Charles, I’m surprised the BBC are not demanding an immediate abdication.
The Redfield and Wilton blanket poll shows the same picture for the GE – SNP on 18 seats.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?type=scotland&SCOTCON=17&SCOTLAB=33&SCOTLIB=8&SCOTNAT=32&SCOTReform=5&SCOTGreen=2&display=AllChanged®orseat=%28none%29&boundary=2019nbbase
Good news for YES, bad news for the SNP without whom for the foreseeable future, there IS no Indy.
I wonder what the SNP can do to turn things around?
I wonder what the SNP can do to turn things around?
They don’t need to do anything at all for now. We don’t even know if they need to turn things around. I appreciate you don’t get the idea that data can be totally wrong, but you need to accept that. I spend my days having to explain to clients who’ve spend 10s of 1000s of £’s dutifully measuring stuff for decades and it’s all shite. Sampling issues mainly.
Polls show such low electorate engagement that there’s no point in making rash, weather vane, knee jerks. Let the unionist parties believe in the mirage of advantage, and go down the right-wing path so far there’s no plausible getting out of that.
When campaigns begin is when the SNP need to make their moves.
If I was SNP strategy team, that’s what I’d advise. That and get ‘for Scottish indy’ on the ballots as planned. Then front and centre that just as things kick off.
As things stand, English Labour are campaigning hard for indy in Scotland and it’s working according to polls. Let that run. It’s totally producing results, so don’t interrupt.
Wrong again. My icon was Walker on the Grun way back.
Wrong? Don’t think so LOL
Sad innit when you can’t even get an ad hominem right LOL
Never mind, better luck next time.
I wasn’t attacking you, I was laughing at you.
We’re doomed!
And you wonder why SNP support is dropping.
Alex Clark: “Mirror mirror on the wall, why does thepnr act the fool?“
You obviously have no self awareness whatsoever. You are the fool.
Glad to see your mirror did its job.
And now for something completely different. From the Herald:
“It’s called the People’s Palace for a reason. With only a few days left to visit the attraction before it closes for three years, bosses behind its restoration say local input will be crucial in bringing it into the 21st century.
The People’s Palace in Glasgow Green will close its doors for the final time on Sunday, April 14, ahead of a major £36million investment that is set to reimagine and restore the museum and glasshouse by 2027.“
Just 4 days to see it as it is now. We’ll (hopefully) be going back in 2027 to see it how it is THEN.
And one more, reopened on Good Friday after renovation.
https://www.glasgowlife.org.uk/museums/venues/provands-lordship
Not going to do any spoilers, but there are photos of Glasgow as well, and it made me look up this:
“The tram system was gradually phased out between 1949 and 1962 (in favour of trolley and diesel-powered buses), with the final trams operating on 4 September 1962. By that time only one route remained in operation, the number 9 which ran from Auchenshuggle to Dalmuir.“
I think, the more history people take an interest, the more likely they are to move to YES.
Which of course made me look up this:
“The Glasgow trolleybus system only lasted a total of 18 years and TB78 was less than 10 years old when withdrawn from service following the last day of trolleybus operation on 27 May 1967.“
Before my time, sadly.
Last word
This blog is to support Independence not unionists.
Those two new polls added in to the average shows the lowest level of certain to vote (CTV) I have on recent record for Scotland, mirroring the UK-wide picture.
Turnouts in England are dropping below 50% now based on CTV levels. If it wasn’t for SNP voters making the union parliament elections look good, we’d have a turnout of upper 30’s projected in Scotland. That’s crazy, and shows you why Yes is now in majority. Scots are sick of the UK. They’ve had enough. Yes is also likely at a notably higher level than polls suggest, given these are so pro-unionist party due to the very low CTV levels.
Error margins are much bigger than usual due to the low number of actual voters planning to vote in samples. That and missing ‘always vote’ voters.
‘Others’ share now at 10% supposedly for FPTP, including 4% Green, 2% Alba and the remaining 4% Reform. It’s like the silly mid-term level of 6% predicted for Brexit party ahead of 2019. They got 0%. Since the SNP took power the highest ever ‘others’ on the day in a GE is 3% (2015), with the average 2%. In the past 20 years, the best others have got is 4% (2005). This means seat predictors will give you wildly varying nonsense if you plug in headline VIs. They are designed around uniform swing and can’t cope with high ‘others’. By putting others in even though these will never win a seat, you dilute your numbers yet further, making your error even larger still. That’s before the fact if you are not considering tactical, as this won’t show in polls until the last few weeks, yet is key to major party final shares (e.g. Green tend to vote SNP under FPTP).
This is why MRP polling is all over the place. When you have such huge disagreement, it means your sampling must be very poor with uncertainly very high, and aye, that is exactly the case. The most recent 3, all for 2024, give 40, 41 and 19 SNP seats, with an average of 33. that would be 58% of seats for the SNP. This will not be taking into account Green -> SNP tactical, nor a rise in CTV, nor any missing voters coming out of the woodwork. Numbers are in reasonable agreement with what you get if you average all Scots polls and stick this into a seat predictor.
Therefore do not trust anyone that claims to know what the outcome of the election will be, especially when they are cherry picking single polls to suit their narrative.
As things stand, I understand the SNP do intend to make the iref a defacto vote for indy. That is what it will become if they put ‘SNP – for Scottish independence‘ or a similarly unambiguous message on the ballot. They don’t have to announce that it’s a defacto iref, it simple will be one because of ballots. However, you’d imagine they would say this once the campaign begins.
As things stand, polls show the unionists have at best the same number of real flesh and blood voters planning to turn out for them as happened in 2019. That’s being generous as it’s actually a bit lower on average, in line with the multi-decadal trend. It’s the same in England with Labour – they are no further forward on 2019 in terms of actual people saying they’re defo going out to vote Labour.
The SNP could lose seats and even not get a majority of these. However, polls conclusively show that their closest rival – Labour – is projected to lose the election, and badly. I’m puzzled as to why people are not talking about this as it’s key to whether the UK can survive while how well the SNP do isn’t really.
Winning means a majority of seats on a share ideally well into the 40’s on a good turnout; a 2010 type result in Labour’s case. In polls favouring Labour due to low turnout projections, 7/10 of those actually planning to vote say they do not want a hated English Labour government slashing Scotland’s block grant, privatising the NHS, stealing Scotland’s oil money for spending on England, and pushing on with Brexit. And all that ahead of the far more important Scottish national election in 2026. Sarwar should really, really not want a Labour win as that will be a serious problem for Scottish Labour. They will become what the Tories currently are to Scots – the cause of all the country’s problems.
So aye, Scots no longer seem to see any point in UK elections. They want out of the UK instead. So it remains quite possible that unless they can affect change by voting – namely by voting for independence – they will boycott instead. Even with this, polls show Labour losing the election badly, giving Scotland it’s first hated Labour government that Scots overwhelmingly rejected at the ballot.
However, unlike those who want to deliberately mislead you, I will not claim to know what will happen. I can only speculate. If CTV levels are very low, the rule is they rise ahead of elections. If they are overly high, they fall. So we might wager on them rising, which would most likely cause a large apparent swing, and historical trends would say this would be to the SNP.
In terms of possible outcomes, we must remember we are comparing applies and pears when it comes to the SNP and Labour. Labour desperately need to get a mandate for Starmer to rule Scotland. The SNP already have a mandate for iref2 and can’t lose that here as it’s for a different parliament. Unlike Labour, they do not need a mandate to ‘govern Scotland’ here as they cannot form the party of UK government. So the number of seats they win doesn’t really change anything at all. The only reason more votes are good for them from a Yes supporter perspective is if this wins indy in a defacto iref. But then if this falls short, our next bit at the cherry is 2026. Then the next election, then the one after that.
So the pressure is not on the SNP, it’s all on Labour. Don’t let the British media fool you here, and they will. They will try to pretend any labour gains are it ‘winning’. No 30% odd is Labour losing and badly.
Here are current possible outcomes based on polling which not as good as it was ahead of 2015 when they got their assess handed to them on a plate:
This is why I’m not wailing about current polling. The union loses even if the polls are spot on. They currently suggest outcome 2, with Labour’s campaign well underway, but the SNP’s not due to start until a few months ahead of the vote.
Stewart Hosie has just been appointed to lead the next SNP GE campaign. The National publishes the list of candidates.
https://archive.is/ROGSO
Yes, the SNP have not started campaigning yet.
Labour have been campaigning increasingly for months now, with no counter campaign from the SNP, yet the former are still projected to lose the election in Scotland badly.
I think that’s a very good choice. He has taken a bit of a back seat since announcing he would be stepping down at this election,
He’s a very good speaker and I’d like to see him putting himself out there and getting the message across that if people want Independence then they need a strong SNP vote in this election.
Westminster only ever pay attention when we stop voting for Unionists and making them MP’s, send only Independence supporting MP’s to Westminster to represent our voices if you want to be heard.
Westminster doesn’t pay any attention whether we vote for unionist or nationalist. The former gives us no voice, the latter a loud voice, but one that is ignored.
Hence Scots now agree it’s time for independence.
Westminster ignoring Scots voting SNP was a very stupid thing to do, as it has driven the former to support leaving the UK.
If we vote for independence, such as via a defacto vote for this in the UKGE, then our voice will be heard. If it’s just for the SNP, it won’t be, again.
Unfortunately we live in a world where the news decides what the news is, will be, and how it’s presented, worded, phrased, and all of that decided by who owns the news
Like eating half a dozen Mars bars a day is bad for you, consuming the same amount of news is no different, except the news has the advantage of living in your house right alongside you, and you don’t even have to go to the shop to pay them for being bad for your health
Ok, so if I plug my poll of poll averages (no pollster bias, no panel approach vs telephone bias), then give 4% of the combined Alba + Green 6% to SNP tactical, while handing most of the Reform vote to Con, I get this:
Which matches 2/3 recent MRP polls for Scotland. It matches because it’s not cherry picking and attempts to account for likely tactical based on historic precedent.
Do any current SNP members know what the election strategy is? I thought it was going to be a vote for the SNP is a vote for independence, no ifs no buts, page one line one etc. Now it appears to be to get rid of the Tories. Is this a change of policy after the conference or is it “strategic ambiguity” designed to confuse the opposition? It certainly confuses me.
I would of course vote SNP anyway because I want independence and there is no credible alternative.
How would we know what the SNP’s strategy is? I’m not aware of any senior cabinet posting on here.
And it’s really unwise to tell your opponents your strategy well in advance, which is what you’d do if you let the wider membership in on this.
If they do plan a defacto iref, then that should be kept quiet until as late as possible to minimise time for it to be countered.
So that’s a “no” then. Pity, because the unionists, with all the black arts at their disposal, will be well informed already and have their counter measures planned.
Ok, let’s say I was in on the SNP strategy, and the unionists were too, what exactly would you have me / other posters do in response?
State it openly and unequivocally to leave no room for the rumour mongers to spread uncertainty and doubt.
In 2017 Independence supporters around these parts stayed at home. Independence wasn’t in the manifesto and people lost heart.
There just still wasn’t support for independence in 2017. It was only 3 years on.
Putting it in the manifesto might have helped gain the SNP a few more seats, but it would not have progressed independence at all.
2017 had no effect on things. It was a dead cat bounce for unionists in terms of seats, but did nothing to reverse the rising tide. Baseline Yes just continued its slow, long term creep upwards.
If 2017 repeats in 2024, the same will apply. The difference now is that maybe, if the vote is a defacto referendum, Yes has the support there. But will it take priority?
In 2015 the SNP got 50% of the Scottish vote, 4.7% of the UK vote, and 59 seats.
In 2017 the SNP got 36.9% of the Scottish vote, 3% of the UK vote and 35 seats.
In 2019 the SNP got 45% of the Scottish vote, 3.9% of the UK vote and 48 seats.
What made the difference in 2017 IMO was the decision not to put independence in the forefront of the campaign but to focus on the bread and butter issues the electorate are always supposed to care about.
That was m observation from these high pastures anyway.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_National_Party_election_results
They should not have ‘lost heart’ if they had applied even a modicum of thought to the GE in 2017. The Tories’ only message shouted loud and long was ‘No to a 2nd Referendum’ and it was more or less the same message from the other Unionist parties. That should have galvanised indybsupporters to turn out in force to vote for the SNP and thus effectively send the message ‘Yes to a 2nd referendum’. But that response does not seem to occur to the voters or the party.
What also has to be considered is voter and party fatigue. Theresa May called the 2017 GE during the run up to the Scottish Council elections so voters and Party, particularly party, were fighting on two fronts simultaneously. Perhaps not surprising that there was a low turnout.
Remember too that from 2014 to 2017 there were elections and referendum in each year.
2014 Indy ref
2015 GE Westminster
2016 EU Ref
2016 Holyrood elections
2017 Scottish local elections
2017 GE Westminster
String theory is much over-rated…
It is only a few weeks until the English Local Council elections. The results while not covering all Local Cuncils in England they will cover enough to give a useful snapshot of where things stand with the various parties in England. And yes I know people may be voting on Local issues to some extent yet national issues will still play a part in how people vote.
It will be interesting to see how Labour does.
Notice that in an election year the news media always reports that all the public services are way waay worse than they have ever been before, all the unions worker conditions are at breaking point or in crisis if they don’t get more money and get it now or the country will collapse
Every form of pestilence to be visited upon us multiplies in election years
Amazing coincidence isn’t it
This post may have been deleted by mistake? If so, here it is again:
This is your reminder that the purpose of this blog is to promote Scottish independence. If the comment you want to make will not assist with that goal then don’t post it.
MODS – POSTS NOT MEETING BLOG RULES WILL BE REMOVED
I see Michele Donelan UK Minister spent £34k of taxpayers money defending the wrongful claim she made about a Scottish academic’s support for Hamas (higher than the £19k first thought) Is the Beeb all over it like they were regarding Matheson’s £11k phone bill….what do you think?
Anybody know anything about this?
The UK rail regulator has blocked the famous Highland Harry Potter train from running, stating the door locks, which have been in use for twenty years are inadequate and must all be upgraded to an electronic central locking system which would cost £millions on this period train
This train brings countless £millions in tourism to Scotland
This train has also been exempt from this for the entirety of its use and apparently no one has ever leapt to their demise
If true it would appear that once again nothing is actually devolved to the Scottish government that someone in England cannot overturn on the grounds of whim
I should point out that both England and Wales have puffer trains in service all over the place that do not have electronic central locking, they have a wee man with a cap and a flag who walks along closing the doors before the train sets off
I believe they call them tourist attractions in England and Wales, in Scotland the same trains are apparently death traps
I noticed Kate Forbes was urging them to fix this a couple of days ago. The National has the story:
Kate Forbes calls for urgent solution to ‘Harry Potter’ train suspension
I replied before seeing your post, looks like a bureaucratic balls up.
It sounds iffy to me, to do this the regulation would have to apply to all trains without central locking, if it doesn’t then it’s not a regulation. Old cars without seatbelts weren’t required to fit them which is sensible, so it would be odd to force old trains to have to do expensive refits.
I’ve just had a bit of a read of this and it appears this legislation was known by all train operators but the cost is so prohibitive in some cases that it would mean the demise of many of these train services including the Harry Potter train
Apparently it’s due to a *near* accident in Wooten Basset England in 2015
The Harry Potter train has guards onboard who lock the doors manually from the inside says the bumff on this particular train, I’ve never been on it so cannot confirm whether folk have been trying to leap to their deaths or throwing their children out in the hope of seeing the magical excitement of a Ford Anglia rescuing them in the sky
It just all seems very sad indeed
I was on a train in India once that had only some doors
I have been on that train from Fort William to Mallaig twice. Granted last time was nearly 12 years ago. No one did anything dumb to try to open the carriage door from the inside although it was possible to do so. This company runs steam trains in Yorkshire and has had the same problem with rail regulatory authority in England It seems it has ignored multiple deadlines to fit central locking to its trains in England and their train here. The Jacobite train comes up here every Spring for the Summer season but it’s base is in England. I guess the reason is the company can’t afford the money it would cost to fit it Going on that steam train is good fun and the kids love it particularly because of the Harry Potter connection. However it is a pretty expensive day out and you get just as good a view from a ScotRail Sprinter train going over the Glenfinnan viaduct as the steam train and the ScotRail train is often much cheaper too.
But it would only take one child or adult to fall out of the train for all hell to break loose.
You also have to remember that many of the tourists on the train will be from overseas and unfamiliar with these type of doors. Even British people will not be too familiar with them since the carriages were phased out in the 1970s.
Staffing levels are another issue. Is there enough staff to ‘police’ each carriage? I was on the train in 2007 and unless things have changed dramatically the answer to that is No.
The company has had several extensions in order to complete the work but seem to have spent the time fighting the proposals through the courts which is not cheap.
https://www.trains.com/trn/news-reviews/news-wire/scotlands-famed-harry-potter-steam-train-faces-regulatory-threat/
Wholeheartedly agree. I don’t get why they have fought this so long. Maybe J K Rowling could give them a wee donation to pay for it(sarcasm mode engaged)
My thoughts too…
Yea this is not a service run by a Heritage Train company that is struggling to make ends meets. The company is both cash rich and profitable. The reason for making the required modifications appears to be financial – they don’t want to hurt their healthy bottom line by using up capital/taking on debt to get the work done.
It may end up being a case of cutting their nose of to spite their face; as the article says there are other companies who have made the modifications and could take over, if this happens they will loose a lucrative revenue stream.
Just saw in the Herald online that the Harry Potter train will start running again next week. Could not read rest of the story because it is behind paywall so don’t know if they have fixed the doors or got another exemption.
They are using carriages that have the required systems:
However, a fleet of carriages which complies with the safety rules has now been prepared to allow the service to resume on Monday – although it will run at a “reduced capacity”, which could affect passengers who previously booked.
https://news.sky.com/story/harry-potter-steam-train-back-on-track-but-booked-passengers-at-risk-of-losing-seats-13113567
Inverness is the latest target of the Orange Lodge I see
Aberdeenshire Council blocked their planned march in Stonehaven recently. They may think they will have better luck in Highland.
If they are ‘The Apprentice Boys of Londonderry ‘ , why are they marching/parading in The Highlands of Scotland ?
Are they lost ?
Do they think that they will be able to recruit other bigots to their ”cause” in Inverness ?
Have Inverness councillors never heard of the new Hate Law which was introduced in April . ( It was mentioned a few times in the media ! )
Does it not apply to these 17thC bigots ?
There is a special exemption for people who want to ridicule or insult or offend other people because of their religious beliefs or lack of them. It’s the only characteristic which enjoys this privilege.
I assume this is to allow for Old Firm matches and Orange marches to carry on bigoting.
There was a law specifically aimed at tackling the sectarianism that existed from 2012 until 2018 when James Kelly the Labour MSP managed to get the support of every other opposition MSP in Holyrood to have it repealed.
Where is James Kelly now and where is the act he promised to introduce that would replace the “Offensive Behaviour at Football and Threatening Communications (Scotland) Act 2012”?
I forgot, Labour might promise much but delivering on their promises is a different story.
See S 9 b Protection of Freedom of Expression
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2021/14/section/9
The Apprentice Boys of Derry (not Londonderry) is a separate organization from the Orange Order, you can be a member and not be in the OO. Bit strange that they are planning to march in Inverness, as the presence of these organizations has historically been regarded as a marker of Irish Protestant migration to Scotland and, as far as I know, there has never been such migration to Inverness or Aberdeen.
I have commented on the Homeless Sleeping rough act in England a few times and mentioned that it has as part of the law a smelling unpleasant component, this law is indeed in force in England right now, and at last the news where they are is reporting it, and if you are found rough sleeping not only can or will you be arrested but if you smell unpleasantly it also attracts a fine of up to £2.500
Now if you fall *foul* of this law it’s not terribly likely you’d have access to £2.500 or you would have nipped into pound stretchers for the odd squirty anti smelly
So for those who still think the hate crime legislation is onerous, pop down to England where you can by lifted and fined for being not odour free if you happen to fall asleep in a doorway
As mentioned in the last thread this is not law in England and Wales as the Conservatives have completely screwed it up. There talk of homelessness being a ‘choice’ and fining people for smelling (up to £2500 as you say) has gone down like a lead balloon with everyone apart from the right of the Conservative party that they have had to stop its progress through Parliament . Currently stuck at the report page:
https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3511
Had a look at that Yougov UK MRP poll. The one that is totally out of kilter with the other two from FON and Survation. Also with Scottish polling averages.
Some glorious highlights:
Others (Grn, Ref, Alb etc) are to take a record 11% of the vote. The highest in the last 20 years was 4% in 2005. The average is 2%. We are dealing with FPTP here.
Lib Dems are going to ‘gain Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross from the SNP’. So between now and October, there’s going to be a by-election where the SNP gain the seat only to lose it to the Libs in the GE. Oki doki Yougov.
Ian Murray is going to take 69% of the vote in Edinburgh South.
Labour are going to get 56% of the vote in East Lothian, up from 29.5%
Reform are goting to get 6% on average, with these their top seats:
14% Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
10% Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
10% Gordon and Buchan
10% Dumfries and Galloway
8% West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
8% Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
8% Na h-Eileanan an Iar
These areas of couse have a strong record of voting UKIP and brexit!
It’s just total dung. It’s an embarrassment. You can see its trying to apply a uniform swing from SNP to Lab when there hasn’t been any swing from SNP to Lab at all. It’s also coming up with magic numbers for Brexit. This used to happen with UKIP and Brexit mid term, and it all amounted to sweet FA on voting day. UKIP couldn’t even manage a Holyrood seat under PR. The only time they managed to get someone elected was when nobody turned out for an EU election apart from their own voters.
A Scotland-wide MRP poll weighted to our demographics would be interesting. However, it will still be unreliable due to a lack of respondents. An IPSOS one would be the best bet.
It’s also coming up with magic numbers for ‘Reform’, obvs. All the same of course.
I mentioned on here when the poll came out that the 69% for Murray was utterly ridiculous. Just 31% for the SNP, Cons, Lib Dems and Green between them!
Nah, I don’t think so.
Here is why you will get total garbage if you try to predict a uniform swing from SNP to Lab. It hasn’t happened. You cannot model something that hasn’t happened accurately.
Unionism is exactly where it was at the start of 2023, i.e. before the SNP VI drop in terms of real people walking around. As Prof C says, there has been no net SNP to Lab. Reform adds like 1-2% to the unionist total across the whole time period, but I only started tracking that lately.
You can see that big drop in voting voters, which has brought down SNP VI. However, the fact that SNP 2019 are saying they are just as likely to vote, if not more so than anyone else, means we must have non-responding people who must be SNP. If I was Labour I’d be really worried. If responding SNP 2019 are very certain to vote, then we might wonder are the non-responding just like them in that respect, but it’s just they’re not responding?
This is why polls cannot give us an accurate picture. We have no idea what that 1/10 of those that voted last time, who voted SNP, are going to do.
It’s like we have 690 people who normally vote, but only 636 will tell us what they plan when we ask. The quiet ones are previous SNP.
Oh, and this is why the real turnout projection in Scotland is just 36% or so, adding reform to Lab/Con/Lib. SNP voters don’t want to be voting in UK elections, so they don’t count in the same way. That’s the state of Westminster popularity in Scotland.
Actually, we do have some info on what they plan to do, and it’s from IPSOS, who are not getting such low CTV numbers when the phone people rather than send out a bulk email. Notably lower Yes, so some quiet people, but not like the panel pollsters.
In their most recent poll, they found 45% plan to vote for a Yes party. That’s 1% down on 2019. So basically no change.
There’s so much mud sticking to both the big English political parties that by the time the election comes around the two of them will have damaged each other so badly that Scottish voters won’t dare take the chance on either of them
I really have no worries at all about the SNP doing just fine, why would Scotland vote for the England shit show that is Labour and Tory, there’s just no difference
How many racists are standing for Labour? It’s clear they are not vetting candidates for this.
Good to see the hate crime law working very well from the start.
While the British media wanted the racists and bigots to run free, they are now being caught, even as they fail to overwhelm the well organised system. The idea the frontline police would be answer the phones is comical. What kind of thicko thinks that. Trained call handlers will check all reports at break neck speed, weeding out any vexatious e.g. far right brits trying to overwhelm the system by reporting our FM. The frontline police only deal with the actual hate crimes, obviously.
https://archive.ph/FL3Xr
Scottish police received more than 7,000 online reports of hate crimes in the first week after a controversial new law came into effect.
The force said this was a “substantial increase” – but that the impact on frontline policing had been minimal.
Police Scotland said the “vast majority” of the reports were anonymous and that no action was taken after they were assessed against the new legislation.
A total of 240 hate crimes and 30 non-crime hate incidents were recorded during the seven-day period.
240 hate crimes that would have been gotten away with in just a week. Brilliant.
I normally have a good deal of sympathy for the police but when I hear their union representative complaining about them “sitting in court for long periods of time and that can make them anxious and tired” my sympathy for their plight begins to ebb rather quickly
English Labour Leader Starmer’s approval continues to decline in Scotland. Redfield and Winton are a loner in having unusually high ratings for Starmer here and UK wide. A very pro-labour pollster for some reason. Likely a reflection on their panel. It’s why they should be very worried by Starmer increasingly negative UK-wide and in Scotland, Labour 2019&21 increasingly pro-Yes.
The past couple of polls have had record negative ratings for Starmer and record Yes support amongst past Labour voters. There is a lot of variance; this you can attribute to the larger error as a result of the poor sampling. You see this in R&W’s Tory VI numbers; the variance is well outside +/-3% precision (not accuracy). That’s because they are missing a variable number of SNP voters, causing sample dilution by non-voters. The more diluted, the bigger the variance.
Remember, the SNP have not started their GE campaign. Labour have been at theirs for some time now. Basically it began in earnest post-mini budget when the media started talking up a Starmer PM, and has been steadily ramping up since. The more the media talk of a coming Starmer government, the more Labour VI slips and Starmer’s ratings fall. And here this is with a pool of people more favourable to him.
Today, Starmer has announced his New Conservatives are a true Tory ‘Bombs not Bairns‘ party. Think of the number of kids he could kill with a nuke! There’d not be enough room on the street outside his house for all the empty kid’s shoes that would create.
And of course he’s planning to store his nukes in Scotland, against our will, while refusing us the right to vote to stop this on the basis of a protected characteristic (Scottish ethnic / national identity).
Yousaf’s approval level continues to slowly rise, consistent with the wider polling picture.
https://archive.ph/wip/gOcRX
Keir Starmer slammed over staunch defence of nuclear weapons
KEIR Starmer has said Trident is the “bedrock” of Labour’s defence policy – despite growing concern over the state of the ageing nuclear fleet critics that say is a “grotesque” waste of money.
The Labour leader launched a full-throated defence of Britain’s nuclear weapons in an attempt to stress the distance he has taken the party since its leadership under Jeremy Corbyn – who voted against the renewal of Trident while in charge.
During a visit to Barrow today, where nuclear submarines are being built, Starmer is expected to focus on increasing jobs and skills in defence.
I understand in the Labour leadership campaign he said he’d never court the Sun.
https://archive.is/TdmDv
Starmer is courting Tory voters so hard it’s almost as though he wants to lose his own
Labour is cosying up to the Sun. Getting its backing could end up looking like a political coup, or the ultimate act of selling out
Last summer Starmer and Anas Sarwar had a nice day out when they were invited to Rupert Murdoch’s garden party. Red Tories.
A right motely crew, blue and red Tories wined and dined by Murdoch tells you all you need to know. You couldn’t put a fag paper between them
https://skwawkbox.org/2023/06/24/starmer-reeves-streeting-khan-sarwar-party-with-murdoch/
When he was campaigning for leader, Starmer told a hustings in Liverpool in January 2020 that he would never speak to the Sun.
Keir Starmer vows not to speak to the S*n in heated Labour leadership debate
He has since had a change of heart as he told ITV news in 2023.
Keir Starmer ‘happy’ to continue to write for The Sun despite Liverpool boycott
Imagine that, Starmer doing a U-turn and breaking promises in order to be elected as leader of Labour. He literally will say and do anything to get his hands on the keys to number 10. No lie is too big and no pledge can be believed if it comes from his mouth. Just like the liar Johnson couldn’t be trusted neither can Starmer, two peas in a pod that pair.
To be fair , most Sun ”readers” have difficulty with any other publication which does not publish in crayon !
And another one bites the dust. He has to copy the Tories. They water down, he waters down.
There is no doubt that is goal is to turn Labour into the New [One Nation] Conservatives, from policy to union jackery. He’s happy to leave the Labour left to form their own party which will never be in power, while his New Tories become the ‘natural party of England’.
https://archive.ph/7Cifm
Labour drops pledge to abolish leasehold within 100 days – but says commitment to reform ‘hasn’t changed’
Labour has dropped its pledge to introduce legislation to abolish leasehold within the first 100 days of government if it wins the general election.
The party is still committed to getting rid of the system, but those working on the policy believe they need more time to enact such a radical measure after the Tories watered down their own promises on reform.
”The ( Labour ) Party is still committed to getting rid of …
( insert any from : House of Lords , Leasehold , Two-child cap , Private Schools , Devolution , Socialism , NHS , Corbyn , ….)
Scotland – Definitely Smart Enough:
Sky News banging on about the 2 Calmac ferries being built by Ferguson’s yet again Nice wee unionist distraction from the Post Office inquiry and wholesale scandal about what happened there. Additionally it diverts attention from HS2 overspend, aircraft carriers that keep breaking down etc and wholesale corruption by Tory MPs and their mates during pandemic. Usual stuff from Sky re this I lasted about a minute before turning it off lest I threw a brick at my TV. Hypocrisy of Sky News and BBC knows no bounds.
The Liberal Democrats or to give them their real name *the transparent Tory or Labour party* show their nasty vindictive side again by losing their own council held by election in Inverness to an Independent candidate, yet celebrate enthusiastically about coming second and beating the SNP into third
And it’s odd how this immediately sets off a chain reaction of SNP bad because they didn’t win, and screams and demands for a new leader of the SNP from the Alba party who basically didn’t come anywhere at all
One would think if your party didn’t come anywhere in an election of any kind you might be thinking of replacing the leader of your own party rather than screaming about replacing somebody else’s leader
It appears in this case that the Liberal Democrats and Alba share the same ethos, the characteristic of culture that demands the hatred of the SNP no matter what they say or do, I understand Labour and Tory embrace this ethos also
There’s loyalty and there’s mental irregularity
I wonder long the police investigation into Angela Raynor will take? Few days? Few weeks? Couple of months?
Bet you it’s not 3 years.
I’m sure that Police Scotland will not be loaning out their Blue Tent . One never knows when it will be urgently required for a forensic investigation into SNP malfeasance at a raffle during a Jumble Sale 37 years ago when a bar of Cadbury’s Daily Milk was mistakenly given to the wrong ticket holder . The Police have been gathering data about said incident and are liaising with The Crown Office to decide future action . But the Blue Tent has been told to stand by …
Sources in BBC Scotland News are claiming it was a Milky Bar. And apparently some cola cubes too.
Rebranded as Ni Cola cubes sold to swell the coffers of house Murrell and a fancier coffee machine
Starmer now getting off on the prospect of him having his finger on the nuke button.
Not content with Starving kids, he say’s he’d not hesitate to nuke them in their millions if he becomes PM.
I’ve often thought about the purpose of nuclear weapons and I always come back to the conclusion that if you don’t have them then why on earth would another country waste the £billions of cost involved firing one at us
An independent Scotland in any circumstances would not be a target for any country to attack with such things as we’re too small to make a military difference to any conflict, so the only reason to target and attack Scotland would be because the English British want these weapons in our country as opposed to their own, because if attacked only the small population of Scotland would be wiped out and England is perfectly fine with that
Not only is Scotland treated as a territorial colony belonging to England, we’re also a nuclear bomb decoy for England, we might as well all stand up waving at Russia and shouting “over here over here, bomb us please”
The upcoming general election is giving the British nationalists hope of an overwhelming victory against Scottish independence, so Labour and Tory will all come out and vote Labour, not because they want them, but because they hope it will end the SNP
It’s up to independence supporters to put that right by not letting them put their “better together” club back together again
Remember 2014, do we want to see them crowing ever again
There will be fewer Tories partying. Murdoch is on the last legs. Signed the assets over to evade tax?
in Scotland 50+, and increasing, people support Independence. Voting unionist will not get Independence. It needs a higher turnout. To out vote unionists. People need to get out and vote.
Millions do what Rayner did. They all cannot be wrong. Millions of investigations going on? By the Polis?
Prosecution of carers and being cheated by the DWP. Made to pay back the whole of the allowance for mis claiming a few quid. Another scandal. Like the Post Office. By Westminster Gov. Prosecution of innocent people. An absolute scandal. The DWP are the criminals.
If people only own one house capital gains does not have to be paid. Lawyers advice. No matter where they live.
Being “blue tented” seems to be a new political term to indicate putting political opponents under police pressure.
Understandable given the ongoing fiasco of Sturgeon/Caravanette-gate..
Contrary to the view some took on the ‘crime scene’ aspect of the actual blue tent, I looked at it as a very clever way of PS introducing a massive screen to afford some degree of privacy to the residents in full expectation of a media pile-on – You only need look at how they pegged it so close to the house to realise someone in PS thought it through.
Rumours that a a stylish ‘bedouin’ tent has been commissioned in the ‘investigation’ of Angela Rayner by Tameside Police has been completely denied….
‘This is not HMS James Cook’s playground’ said none….
Never thought about the ‘blue tent saga’ this way Bob. Do you think PS were really being that sensitive? Maybe…
Given the media’s frenzied interest and availability of long range lenses, drones and snooping kit, possibly sensitivity but more likely operational security – The tent was pitched so ridiculously close to the front window it put the room in permanent shade…
Remember the story of digging up the garden ? All because a journo had spotted a copper shifting a spade out of the garden shed – Long after the story had been debunked, Jeremy Vile was still repeating that nonsense, ditto the luxury motorhome instead of a camper van…
In England Vladimir Putin is a nut case that would destroy the world (Scotland first) with nuclear weapons but Sir Keir Starmer is a hero when he promises to do exactly the same thing (destroy Scotland)
There are no nuclear weapons in England, Starmer’s first name should be Jack, because he’s alright, Scotland’s not
Ashcroft the tax evader. Evading £Millions. Writes a book about Angela Raynor intruding into her private life. A stalker claiming she is owe £1000 in capital gains. She does not owe anything.
People can sell the only house they have, with mortgage, without capital gains. Where ever they live. Millions do it every year. A total smoke screen. To try and hide the £Billions the Tories are wasting and evading. Including on Trident.
There have been nuclear weapons trained on Russia by the West for years. That is why the Russians want to protect their borders. UN members have threatened Russia for years.
26Million Russians died protecting the West WW2. Russia defeated Germany to save the West.
Fact of the day, in IPSOS telephone polling, the combined share for Yes parties (SNP, Green, Alba) has remained consistently higher (48%) than it was mid term 2017-2019 (44%). It is also unchanged on pre-UKSC / Sturgeon resignation.
2017-2019 mid term = 41% SNP + Grn
2017-2019 average (inc final poll) = 44% SNP + Green
2019 Final poll = 46% SNP + Grn
Outcome = 46% SNP + Grn
2020-2024 pre-UKSC = 46% SNP + Grn + Alb
2020-2024 post-UKSC spike = 55% SNP + Grn + Alb
2020-2024 post Sturgeon = 45% SNP + Grn + Alb
Combined yes party drop on pre-UKSC mid term = -1% (due to lower CTV)
There was definitely a reaction to the UKSC case. It caused certain to vote (CTV) levels to shoot up, support for Yes parties to shoot up, and Yes to shoot up. That happened for all pollsters. It was a bullet right through the heat of the union. Then Sturgeon was forced from office by the English media and Scots went quiet, particularly in terms of answering emails from panel pollsters.
IPSOS saw the spike wane too, but it’s seen no drop in combined Yes support compared to 2022, and this is up on 2017-2019 when on the day Yes parties got 46%.
This is why in their most recent poll, they seem a bit puzzled. ‘Scots want change, but it’s not Labour‘ was their conclusion. They have not released VI numbers from this wave, but my guess is that, presuming they asked about this, once again they’ve found Yes parties just as high as they have been, and as strong as 2019 or better compared to pre-election polling for that. They must be asking themselves – why do we find no change, when the other panel pollsters do?
If you are the lone voice, you’ll wonder it is you that’s maybe getting it wrong. However, it’s not a case of ‘most polls are saying Yes parties down, so they must be right’ as it’s actually a case of panel vs telephone. Which is giving the more reliable sampling of Scots who are not engaged, notably Yes Scots?
Well, the certain to vote levels of IPSOS remain consistently higher than panel polls. That says they have a better reach in terms of voting voters. As I’ve said before, the most accurate poll would be one made up of 1000 people who were representative of those who actually were going to vote on the day. People who are not going to vote are no use to pollsters. So if all the pollster’s basic weighting methods etc are sound enough, the one that reaches more voters is the one that will be more accurate.
In our case, that would be IPSOS.
I note IPSOS also predicts sensible numbers for the Tories at 14%, and Reform at 1%. Yougov had reform at 7% FFS. That’s just comically stupid and says their sample is not representative. Same for R&W with their 5% and Con riding high (for Scotland) on 17%. Righto!
So polls do not show Yes parties on the back foot. Half of them on a key methodological basis – namely those based on telephone polling which has better reach – show no change here. Just some mid term ‘I support Green (but will likely vote SNP tactically again)’ Yes party churn.
One group of pollsters will have egg on their faces. IPSOS has no past egg stains on their mug, but the panel pollsters absolutely do.
Even in 2011, when polling was a total disaster right through to late March, Ipsos, on average, said the race tight, but the SNP would likely win. All the others were predicting a Labour Landslide.
IPSOS have an office in Edinburgh who do their Scots polling. They’ve been polling Scotland as long as I can remember, including for the devo ref in 1997. The other pollsters are English, generally based in London. They are polling a foreign country from afar that they know very little about.
Oh, and while we are talking small subsamples, IPSOS UK’s polls show exactly the same thing for Scotland as their full Scottish. The numbers right now for Scotland are exactly the same as they were 2019-2022 prior to the UKSC case spike. They see no Yes party ‘drop’.
The last time Yougov had Labour in the lead in their Scottish polls was in September 2014 just after the referendum. How accurate was that poll for them?
Well considering just 8 months later they were humiliated at the polls, Labour went from having 40 MP’s in Scotland to just a single MP tells you everything you all you need to know about the accuracy of Yougov polling in Scotland back then.
It remains to be seen if they have gotten any more accurate now but I suspect not and that Ipsos is painting a more realistic picture of voters intentions.
Yes, I’ve said before that the last time the polls ‘looked this good for Labour‘ were not long before the election that saw them get their assess handed to them on a plate, i.e. 2015.
Be very wary of averages that just give the same weight to every poll. We know panel and telephone are giving very different answers right now. One is saying the Yes parties have not taken any real hit at all, and it’s just a touch of mid term low turnout projection. The other – panel pollsters – are saying the turnout will be uber low, and this is hurting Yes parties significantly. In science, you’d never lump 6 analyses done one way with 1 done another and just average, certainly not if there were big discrepancies. Nope, you’d give equal weight to both.
6 panel results + 7 telephone averaged means you are giving a massive amount of weight to the former approach, ergo must believe it superior. You need to explain the justification for that. The conservative way would be to get an average of your 6 panel polls, then get an new average of your panel average and your telephone average.
It is a pity we don’t have another telephone pollster. ICM used to do this. TNS-BMRB even did door chapping back in the day, so you had 3 methods to take an average of.
Either ISPOS or the panel pollsters will be closer to the mark. My money is on one of the best pollsters in Scotland, where real people seek out real voters and have a wee chat to them from their office in Scotland. A pollster I’ve known since I was a teenager eagerly hoping for Yes-Yes, which has an excellent record in Scotland. Too much sample dilution in the panel polls for my liking right now. Giving nonsensical numbers like 7% Reform, just like we saw for Brexit 2017-19.
I wouldn’t trust a YouGov poll for at least three reasons.
1 It was set up jointly by amongst others by Nadhim “my horses are cold” Zahawi.
2 It had contributor-columnists to its website including Boris Johnson and the broadcaster, John Humphrys.
3 It lumps any Welsh polling in with the English Welsh Midlands, finding that the vote for Plaid Cymru in Solihull is around 2%.
Ok, in graph form.
You can see how Yes parties combined are polling notably better right now than they were mid-term 2017-2019.
IPSOS were spot on in their final poll for 2019.
Their last poll before events shook things up in late 2022 was 48% for all three Yes parties combined. Within MoE of the 2019 election, but maybe up. Then the UKSC case gave the Yes parties a shot in the arm, and the certain to vote (CTV) numbers shot up. The UK had done itself real damage here, and you will recall indyref VI shot up.
Then Sturgeon resigned and Yes party share dropped back, but only to where (45%) it was before the UKSC case (48% max) spike within MoE. CTV drops back too.
But IPSOS polls show much stronger support for Yes parties than pre-2019, and it’s not just in VI share…
But look at the VI share / CTV ratio. This is a measure of the strength of Yes party share as a function of relative turnout (TO). You want this as high as possible, i.e. more Yes party VI per unit CTV. And that’s what’s been happening. Yes party VI to CTV ratio has climbed from 0.6 to 0.7 since 2018.
What this means is the Yes parties need much less of a turnout to achieve the same VI share. Low turnouts still favour unionists, but this factor in their favour is weakening.
In as simple terms as possible, in 2018-2019, certain to vote levels of 76% amongst IPSOS respondents got the Yes parties a VI share of 44% on average.
Jump forward 5-6 years and now the Yes parties get 45% on a certain to vote level of a much lower 67%.
While Yes voters have been disengaged, unionists are very despondent about the UK, as their counterparts are in England. This means the low turnout factor that hit the Yes parties hard in 2017 is much more difficult to repeat. Unionist now need a historic low turnout never seen before in Scotland to gain more seats. That would be very damaging for the union though.
The VI share to CTV pattern is seen in all polls, not just IPSOS. It’s just the panel pollsters are finding less Yes party VI, although the weight of evidence suggests that’s because they struggling to reach Yes voters right now while IPSOS is having more success.
As @Alex Clark commented upthread, ” Starmer is only doing what his backers have told him to do. He is a tool of big business and the right wing media barons just as much as the Tories are ” – In England this has increasingly dawned on England’s labour support in the electorate, at precisely the same time as the disconnect to ‘traditional’ Tory values similarly repulses their voters – The danger of the long-standing hegemonic politics of England has finally dawned on it’s electorate, they are finally seeing UK politics for what it is, a scam, just as Scots did over a decade ago.
The ‘establishment’ bullshit is finally hitting a brick wall, hence the Iranian squirrel as diversion from HMS James Cook and almost everywhere else in UK media – But ask yourself who attacked whom ?
The British Empire should have been inhumed years ago, but refuses to admit it died…
Well said. The utter hypocrisy of the West is vomit worthy. I don’t like the Iranian government at all, certainly don’t like the Israeli government and have nothing but contempt for our so called UK government run by a posh rich git elected by not one member of the UK electorate. As for that doddery old fool Biden he is going to lead the West into another world war. If not him Trump will. Why does Israel get away with attacking an Iranian diplomatic centre and provoking last night’s attack. Meanwhile the US is still starving Ukraine of money for weapons to defend their country against Russia. The American dog barks and the British poodles trots along behind. Did Sunak ask the British people about using the RAF to defend Israel a country that has been accused of commuting genocide in Gaza. No he certainly did not
“As for that doddery old fool Biden he is going to lead the West into another world war. If not him Trump will. “
Remember Not the Nine o’Clock News? ”America’s hoping to make up for being late for the last 2 World Wars by being really prompt for the next one”?
That’s really funny but possibly very true.
TBH, if we gave equal weight to telephone and panel methodologies, which by their nature are very different – in the first the pollster contacts the respondent, while in the second the pollster mass emails and hopes to get enough folk to contact it in response – Yes would have been in majority on average since the UKSC case. I really wish we had one more telephone pollster to compare IPSOS with, although there’s no faulting them historically; they have a top class record in Scotland.
There’s a Panelbase just out. It has a terrible record by contrast, predicating 38% SNP in it’s final 2019 poll just before the election. Looks to be an outlier in favour of no on the indyref question, but that makes it bad for Labour as they dropped 4 points, losing their supposed, erm, lead over the SNP. If the poll is more pro-No as the indyref VI indicates, that shouldn’t be happening to them.
When the tables arrive I shall have a look. Usual mid-term panel poll nonsense of 11% for others means it’s cannot be realistically considered reliable as an outcome.
Ok you can see why Labour dropped 4 points. In a outlier poll with just 46.3% Yes, the expectation would be Yousaf = Bad (which it shows) but Labour = good.
Yet Labour down outside of MoE (-4%, losing lead over SNP) and this:
How good or bad a job is Sir Keir Starmer doing as Leader of the UK Labour Party?
17(-5)% Good
43(+7)% Bad
How good or bad a job is Anas Sarwar doing as Leader of the UK Labour Party?
18(-5)% Good
35(+9)% Bad
So not a back slapping poll for the SNP by any means, but very recent run of the mill one with no change in their support and Yes staying in majority on average, even with this higher no outlier. But something of a hit for Labour, with a worrying shift in ratings. These are the worst yet for Starmer and Sarwar with Panelbase Scotland.
Here’s where the 2019 prize went to IPSOS, and 2.5 weeks in advance!
Look at the clanger from Panelbase about a week before, and so much for Yougov’s MRP. With an engaged electorate too!
@US population 360million. Average life expectancy. 76. Lower than Europe. Or Japan 85 the highest. US obesity and gun deaths. 16,000 gun deaths a year. 24,000 homicides. Higher than Europe and many Asian countries. South America has high homicide rates. Mexico.
If Scotland was Independent there would be less wars. Get rid of Trident. Spend the monies boosting the economy and rejoin the EU. Shared Defence costs and cooperation. The EU established after WW2 to stop starvation and war in Europe. Successful. Cap payments, nearest biggest markets. Grants and loans for renewables and deprived areas.
Brexit the UK has lost £Billions. The cost of living has gone up.The standard of living has gone down. Scotland did not vote for it.
UK 180,000 military personnel. 10,000 based in Scotland. Scotland has to pay for it. No equality. Scotland left short. No navy to patrol its shores.
Albanians flooding the UK with drugs. Crack. Gangsters.
On a purely pedantic point of factual accuracy, the EU was formally established on 1st November 1993, when the Maastricht treaty came into force. It was the European Recovery Programme, otherwise known as The Marshall Plan, which rescued the European economy in the wake of WW2, named after George Marshall the American Secretary of State.
The Polls are often wrong, especially in tight margins. The Pollsters are censored and fined many times, but not jailed for gerrymandering. The fine a fraction of the private and public monies being wasted.
The Polls manipulated to try and influence the results. Used by Hedge Funds gambling on the results. Making Millionaire politicians and associates even wealthier by abusing public monies. Funds funded by public monies and used by corrupt politicians to try and meddle in the results.
Cambridge Analytica etc. Paying Facebook for confidential user information. To try and influence the result. Breaking data protection and electoral Law to make tax evading millionaires even wealthier.
The Bookie are more accurate. Profits depending on the results. Less access to public funding. Like corrupt politicians.
Israel commits a War Crime by bombing a Consulate Office in Syria (breach of The Vienna Convention ) and kills innocents among the Iranian military deaths claimed . No condemnation from the UK or USA or other supporters of Israel . Imagine the reaction if the roles were reversed !
Surprise , surprise ! Iran responds with an attack of its own and the UK allows British military aircraft to become involved in the conflict. Who authorised this ? Is this The UK now complicit in the actions of Israel and the consequences from its provocative military actions ?
Where does it end ? Sunak and the Conservative Party are on the brink of electoral disaster – so , a convenient War to distract from their plight is very welcome , n’est pas ? Magie did it too ,so it will go down well with the dinosaurs in the Party.
And Starmer , despite his belated calls for a ceasefire in Gaza , will not hesitate to join calls for support of israel if the conflict with Iran escalates . The ”hard man ” stance that Starmer projected last week with his claim to be ready to ”push the nuclear button ” must be applied to any enemies of Israel .He can’t ‘be seen to ‘wimp out’ when Sunak is talking tough .He certainly won’t be questioning the use of British Military aircraft in support of Israel – which he should – as it goes against too many of his financial backers .
And the UK media will , in the main , be rubbing their collective bloody hands at the thought of a good wee war to send up their dying circulations, with headlines already being drafted - ”Gotcha ! ”
Yeah but happily the supply and cost of oil was already priced into all of this and hasn’t altered, so everything’s fine and dandy, Phew!
Who’s right who’s wrong? how many will or might die? isn’t even a factor in any of it, the oil must flow
Apparently the US stockpiled the largest amount of oil in the world because they knew this was all going to happen, so are well prepared for whatever war comes along, or that is pre engineered
Israel has , for many years , been openly ”assassinating ” ( murdering !) Iranian Military and Scientific assets , either in Iran or elsewhere . The attack on the Iranian Consulate in Syria was simply an escalation of this reckless conduct .
When Russia does this we , in the West , utterly condemn these actions and place sanctions on senior Russian figures . Where was the similar condemnation or sanctions applied to Israel or Israeli politicians ?
There is a word for this -hypocrisy !
John Stewart’s take, starts at 2.50mins.
At least they have some freedom to satirise the stupidity of their leadership in the US. Is there any TV host in the UK who will speak out? I don’t watch TV but since nothing is circulating on X/Twitter I’m assuming everyone just accepts what is being done in our name and passes laws to silence those who don’t.
Beyond parody, Capella:
https://nation.cymru/news/liz-truss-refuses-to-rule-out-standing-for-tory-leadership-in-future/
Liz Truss refuses to rule out standing for Tory leadership in future
15 Apr 2024 3 minute read
Liz Truss has refused to rule out running for leader of the Conservative Party again.
The Tory former prime minister claimed she had “unfinished business” at the top of politics, as she toured the media ahead of the publication of her book, Ten Years To Save The West.
Her tenure in Downing Street lasted just 49 days, after the mini budget, which included unfunded tax cutting measures, triggered mass market turmoil.
Asked by LBC if she would want to return to frontline politics in the event the Conservatives lose the coming general election, Ms Truss said: “I definitely have unfinished business. Definitely. And I think the Conservative Party has unfinished business.
“I think, if we’re honest with ourselves, we haven’t done enough to reverse the Blair legacy.”
[…]
I saw this book mentioned the other day and couldn’t help but wonder what she’s ‘saving The West’ from. The East, The North (Greenland/Iceland take note), The South (Australia/NZ), the Middle bit?
Or maybe it’s based on that Hollywood blockbuster of the 1960’s ‘How the West was won’ starring those all-American heroes like John Wayne. Circle your wagons, we’re in for a bumpy ride
So many heidbangers just dying to be top dog in the world these days. We should be very worried. Maybe there’s a virus running amok.
“Ten Years To Save The West” ha ha ha ha ha! The Lettuce redentor! So Liz Truss is going to take on the Rest of the World. Dearie me. There goes her pork markets again.
But where is That Was the Week that Was, Spitting Image, Monty Python and other stellar satirists?
I switched on the telly half an hour ago and there she was, blethering to Farage! Spitting Image would have loved that pair.
Truss and Farage – the Dream Team 😂😂
Israel can basically do whatever the hell it likes because it represents *the West in the East* or *our man in Havana* if you will, or so the West thinks, except the West fails to realise that Israel feels it owes no one anything so will be totally out of control if it feels like it, knowing full well the West will keep supporting it because it’s the West that needs Israel right where it is being the West’s policeman in that area
I don’t believe there’s really any single government of power in the world that gives a monkey’s about people alive or dead, they care about world control, who has it and how to keep it
There could be countless millions on the streets of the countries of the world demanding no more of this, but we just don’t count, we never have, power to these people is an absolute end in itself and all that matters
Who’s right and who’s wrong? it makes not a jot of difference, an excuse for justification will always be found and explained to us morons that don’t matter anyway, except when they ask for our domestic votes, and the minute we give them those votes they do it all over again
Ok latest polls have unionist combined share as a function of the total electorate certain to vote as still less than 36%, which is down on 2019, and notably down on their 2017 dead cat bounce where they got 41.5% out to back them.
A second, measurably weaker bounce of the union dead cat is what polls say at face value, if we assume that panel polls are more right than telephone.
Labour have been stuck on max 32% driven by a historic low turnout projection for a year now. I don’t see how they can turn this around without a complete change of direction towards the centre-left, pro-EU and pro-devo max.
They need to win in Scotland like e.g. 2010 to get a weak mandate to govern us from London. It’s not like the SNP who don’t seek such a mandate as they can never form the UK governing party. Labour are on 20% of the total electorate certain to vote. That’s only 1% more than the Tories got in 2017 and 2% more than Labour did. Nobody made any suggestion at that time that somehow either had a mandate for Scotland, that would be nonsense. 3/10 votes at the ballot box isn’t a democratic mandate. The SNP understood that well, and so we had unofficial mixed party coalition rule 2007-2011.
How on earth does Starmer turn things around in Scotland, especially with his and Sarwar’s ratings dive-bombing? The clock is ticking for him here. The pressure is all on Labour to win this, and win big, bringing Scotland back into the heart of the union. The establishment has insisted that the problem was Tory rule, and Labour’s return would solve the constitutional crisis. So far, the polls are saying the total opposite. Faced with Starmer entering No. 10, Scots want out now. Maybe he needs to step down in favour of a unifying candidate?
The Brits are far too focussed on how the SNP are going to do. Unless it’s a defacto iref, this actually won’t have an affect on the future of the UK per se, just as 2017 didn’t. When Scots want to remain in the UK, lots of SNP MPs is good for Scotland, and, ironically the UK. From a unionism perspective, Scots being opposed to indy but wanting a strong voice in Westminster is a good thing. It’s exactly what they said we should do ahead of 2014, i.e. ‘Lead us don’t leave us!‘.
So them liking polls showing Scots apparently lacking interest in having a voice in Westminster at all while packing their bags for independence, should have them in a panic. They should be hoping for a repeat of 2015 where Scots enthusiastically took up the call to join in with a big voice, while support for indy fell back to a baseline 45% from a post iref high of 50%. Scotland’s place in the union post iref1 was most secure in the aftermath of the 2015 election, when the SNP took 95% of Scots seats.
How come nobody can see the obviousness of all this?
Scots said ‘Ok, we stay, we’ll help lead‘. England responded ‘Shut it jocks, accept our Brexit, less powers for you, and we are going to overrule your parliament when we want, then tell you are not allowed to leave without permission!’. And here we are. Scots have had enough and want out. Unionists should give themselves a slow clap.
UK is totally f**ked in 2026 if not this year. I bet on 2026 after 2 years of full throttle right-wing Starmerism, but don’t be shocked if it happens sooner when least expected, like the massive changes in polls witnessed ahead of 2011 and 2015.
Facts of the day….
The landslide SNP victory in 2011 saw Yes support fall* in response (to early 2013).
The landslide SNP victory in 2015 saw Yes support fall in response (to mid 2016).
The SNP setback in 2017 saw Yes support rise in response (to mid 2020).
The SNP modest recovery in 2019 saw Yes support continue to rise (to mid 2020).
The SNP led Yes landslide victory in 2021 saw Yes fall / stall in response (to late 2022).
The SNP set-back in late 2022 (UKSC) and early 2023 saw Yes rise in response to date (now in majority).
The two are not the same thing. Don’t make the same mistake as unionists in equating Yes = SNP.
The point is that the SNP winning a landslide might well set Yes back a bit. It would not mean automatically mean advancement for Yes. Them emerging bruised by contrast could cause Yes to climb in response, as per post 2017. The unionists celebrated that dead cat bounce only for it to see Yes to climb to it’s first clear majority wave in just a few years.
Of course the above has been for when elections were not a defacto iref. If they become so, then indy could be progressed with bit wins for SNP/Yes. However, it needs all Yes parties to be on the same page for this. Trying to win a defacto iref election for Westminster is easier in the case of only the SNP putting that on the ballot as it’s FPTP and for being ignored in the corner otherwise. But for Holyrood elections, it needs to be all Yes parties saying a vote for them is a vote for indy if you want to maximise this under PR. They already got over 50% on a record turnout last time when baseline indy support was notably lower. So no problems winning this. If Scots want it and Yes parties offer it, the people will speak.
—-
*By falls of course I mean troughs in waves, but on a rising tide. Each time the retreat has been to higher baseline than before. We are currently in a trough which is greater than 50%, even with polls seemingly overrepresenting unionists, suggesting the Rubicon has been crossed.
Hmm, that latest IPSOS, for which we have no VI numbers, only some leader sat ratings and other questions on ‘change’ (later article), was not conducted by telephone as usual, but ‘online’ apparently. That means sat ratings are not comparable in a time series. Not if a different sampling method was used.
January:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/snp-still-lead-scotland-labour-are-narrowing-gap
Most recent:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/ipsos-scotland-political-pulse-march-2024
November’s was also telephone. Just seems to be that new one that’s not. If it does produce VI numbers, it would be interesting to see the difference. We know the picture is totally static, and has been for year. So if they get different numbers it would lead to questions over accuracy – which method is better? Unionist did get some benefit based in sat numbers, which implies that sampling is causing differences, as otherwise they use all the same weightings.
If you sample by two different methods and get two different answers, you must set to work on working out why that is. Because you know something is wrong. You can’t keep publishing away like everything is fine. You need to work out which method is closer to the truth. That or publish both outcomes and say you are not sure for now which is more correct.
This also why only fools grab the latest poll and wave it around. Make sure you have looked very carefully at it before making any conclusions, even if that’s simply checking the trend from that pollster. You might be comparing haggis with neeps.
Ok, it seems I’ve worked out who’s not answering pollsters. It’s the pro-Yes/SNP under 35’s. The most Yes of Yes folk there is. That’s who’s been increasingly hard to reach IPSOS data are indicating. That is who is not engaged right now; those most harmed by Brexit and most worried for their future if indy doesn’t come. The older well off Lab/Con/Lib unionist guard who the union’s been good to and who are enjoying retirement, are just as easy to get a hold of as they’ve always been. But than now means they’re dominating polls, and even in IPSOS.
If that’s right Mr Yousaf, you really need to get indy on the ballot if you want votes. You need to offer the future of Scotland a future; something they don’t have in a Scotland that’s a peripheral region of a peripheral, isolationist, inward looking, economically declining, full on right-wing gammon Greater Englandshire. For them, Brexit Scotland looks increasingly as Thatcher’s Scotland did to the youngsters of the 1980’s; a place with no future for young people.
Graph to come once I’ve confirmed this as far back as I can. But I said the respondent base had changed. Now it seems I’ve found how it has done so. This does mean polls right now are neeps compared to the haggis of pre-Sturgeon resignation. It means that if they show a drop, there may have been none at all. You are not asking the same people their opinions.
And here it is.
The younger age groups have always been a bit harder reach (10% upweighting previously), but that’s become super hard over the past year, particularly for online polls, as shown. Ipsos had to weight these up 57% in their latest poll with leadership questions. This was online, which indicates that method may be even poorer at reaching these.
I need to update these numbers, but this is why SNP2019 undersampling shot up after Sturgeon’s resignation, while Labour 2019 went down. SNP2019 are hard to reach, and particularly those under 35; the most Yes of all groups in Scotland. The ones for whom independence is their entire future. If it doesn’t come, they and their country have no future.
If you are looking at changes in polls pre- and post Sturgeon, you are comparing apples and pears. They are not sampling the same pool of people. They are now unable to reach SNP2019 under 35’s anywhere near as easily as they were. They are not saying they won’t vote, they are just not responding. This is why SNP appear down, but data says there has been so swing from them to unionists at all NET.
There is no way to weight this out. If all under 35’s of all political persuasions were equally hard to reach you could, but not if they are of one type as they appear to be.
This means Yes and SNP may be considerably underestimated, and if these people start responding, you could see big changes very suddenly, such as ahead of 2011, 2015 and to a lesser extent 2019. What’s even worse for the union, is that polls show a majority for Yes and even IPSOS which is less affected but still is, sees Yes parties on 45% combined, i.e. what they got in 2019. That’s with polls favouring unionists as much as these possibly could methodologically right now.
But would this all be a surprise give how turned off the English electorate is with the two cheeks of the same erse in Westminster? If the English have had enough of Westminster parties, would the Scots be flocking back to these? Well the polls say they are not, not at all. Labour needs Yes Scots to stay at home en masse for it to lose the election badly with 3/10 votes on a record low turnout. If turnout picks up, everything says they will go backwards from this ‘high’ they are on right now, if you want to call it that.
However, since pollsters can’t reach these silent folks right now, all we can do is wait and see. That, and I venture, offer them a way to show their clear support for indy at the ballot box.
Yousaf and co – over to you.
Israel population 8million. Half do not agree with the regime.
Iran 88 million pop. Half do not agree with the regime
Who would elect Truss or Farague? On a loser there. More media manipulation. Click bait. Trying to put up rating. Comedy half hour.
”Lord” David Cameron as Foreign Secretary has been as effective as he was as PM and just as hypocritical . His interview on SKY yesterday where he attempted to justify Israel’s actions vis-s-vis Iran was pathetic .Even the incompetent Kay Burley was able to tie him in knots with a few simple questions .
This is what the UK has reverted to : appointing posh boys with little talent but exceptional levels of smugness and entitlement as the UK’s representatives to the World . The Tories must think we are living back in Victorian Times !
Mind you , with the policies they are pursuing , we might soon have Victorian levels of deprivation as they continue to support the rich and gaslight the rest of us .
I saw a headline from the BBC along the lines of ‘Cameron says UK shooting down Iranian missiles / drones was done to de-escalate‘ and burst out laughing at the absurd stupidity of what he was saying.
As things stand, the UK / US are now bombing Iranian targets in addition to Yemeni. This isn’t things escalating into a wide conflict apparently.
Anti-SNPers getting really worked about Branchform now.
https://archive.ph/dWxwW
Operation Branchform: SNP probe fears amid force ‘turmoil’
A complainer in the Operation Branchform investigation has raised concerns over whether the probe into SNP finances is being affected by “turmoil” in the top ranks of Police Scotland…
…Now one of the complainers in the force’s long running inquiry into SNP finances has come forward to ask whether the inquiry is progressing as it should amid the reported issues.
“The public have a right to see justice being delivered especially when those being investigated are highly paid public servants,” said the complainer, whose identity is known to The Herald but does not wish to be identified.
“Operation Branchform has taken over two years so far and is based on a public fundraiser… the public have a right to expect justice to be seen to be done. Otherwise faith in the justice system could be put at risk.”
Asked if he was concerned over any negative impacts to Operation Branchform, he said: “Yes I think if Police Scotland are missing a number of key appointments then how can they carry out their duties and investigate reported crimes?
“It doesn’t take over two years to read a set of accounts and question a small number of people.”
Yes, Scots increasingly think SNP politicians are not being given fair justice by the UK Union Crown Office.
Also, it’s almost 3 years now, not ‘over two’.
Oh, and none of those arrested and released without charge are civil servants. MSPs are not civil servants and PM isn’t even a politician, but just member of the public. He’s never received a penny in public money. He got a salary for doing a 9-5 job for an organisation like anyone else. I and other members / donators paid his salary.
And it is the constituents of MSPs that pay their salaries, not the wider public purse. If the whole of Scotland except an MSP’s constituents want them to resign, they don’t have to resign as they are wanted as an MSP.
What missing Police Scotland appointments is the complainer talking about. I know folk who work for Police Scotland per his info they are short of ordinary officers due to high amount of retirements but no mention of that being the case with Senior Officers. A new Chief Constable has been in post for a few months. Was it not mentioned in the media a couple of weeks ago that a new Senior Officer had been appointed to have another look at the case a few months back. Operation Branchform has severely damaged the credibility of the Police and Crown Office and anyone with a smidgeon of a moral compass knows the whole thing is as bent as a nine bob note. A decision needs to be made on it very soon. Otherwise it just looks like stalling tactics to damage the Snp.
The myth of the missing money had begun circulating in January 2020, being first perpetuated by right-wing English websites, before hitting the British papers in Scotland.
For 1.5 years there was no interest in any investigation from the UK Crown Office / Police Scotland. Then in May 2021, Yes parties won a historic mandate for iref2. They got their highest ever vote share (a clear majority), on the highest ever turnout, on the highest ever voluntary signed up electorate for a Scottish national election in May 2021. Iref2 was now firmly on the table. A matter of weeks later, Branchform was started (July).
But nearly 3 years on and iref2 has not occurred…
Oh dear. Who’d a think that bit in bold would occur, even without any vexatious claims.
https://archive.ph/505RM
…The Scottish government wants to introduce a bill to tackle misogyny before the end of the current parliamentary term in 2026, following a review carried out by the human rights lawyer Baroness Helena Kennedy KC.
Women were not included in the recent Hate Crime and Public Order (Scotland) Act 2021 that was introduced on 1 April – a decision that Mr Yousaf said had followed discussions with a number of women’s groups...
Figures released by Police Scotland on Tuesday showed that the number of online hate reports dropped by almost 75% in the second week since the introduction of the new hate crime legislation.
This bill better protect on the basis of sex and not just against ‘misogyny’, as that would be sexist and a breach of equality law. You can’t protect one sex from hate crimes on the basis of that, but not the other. It would also be total nonsense if you could, as per the article, incite hatred against a transwoman on the basis of the gender they or others perceived you as perceiving the victim had, but if you swapped to their known sex, it would suddenly be all fine and dandy to spout hate towards them.
It would also be like saying black people are protected against racism, but not Asians…