The SNP leadership contest was over even before it had begun, no doubt much to the disappointment of BBC Scotland management who will now have to bin all the ‘SNP divided’ stories they were going to regale us with over the coming weeks as a distraction from the meltdown of the Conservatives and Keir Starmer’s latest U-turn following pressure from big business, Labour has signalled a significant watering down of the party’s much vaunted New Deal for Workers. No big surprise there then. For all that Anas Sarwar claims that Labour is the party that listens to workers, the actions of the Labour leadership show all too clearly that it’s a party which listens to boardrooms not workers.
Former deputy first minister John Swinney announced this morning that he would be standing as party leader, in his speech announcing his candidacy he spoke very highly of his potential competitor the former finance secretary Kate Forbes, lauding her talents and abilities and promising that should he be successful he would offer her a prominent role in his government.
It was an open secret in Holyrood that the two potential candidates had been holding private talks in a bid to reach an accommodation which could avert a potentially damaging leadership contest. Polling expert John Curtice estimates that the unedifying scenes during the last leadership contest with candidates publicly criticising one another and their online supporters behaving in often ill tempered ways and in some cases indulging in baseless conspiracy theories, caused significant damage to the SNP amongst the wider electorate leading to the SNP losing five percentage points in opinion polling.
With Labour being bigged up as the Saviour of the Union by Scotland’s anti-independence media the loss of another 5% in opinion polling could potentially result in the SNP failing to remain the largest party in Scotland in terms of vote share and number of MPs elected at the Westminster general election which is widely expected later this year and which could possibly be upon us very soon should the Conservative perform even worse than expected in the local and mayoral elections which are being held in England today and panicked Tory MPs decide that they have nothing to lose by ditching the useless and unpopular Rishi Sunak.
The talks between John Swinney and Kate Forbes were evidently successful as within hours of John Swinney launching his leadership bid Kate Forbes announced that she would not be standing and gave her full support to her erstwhile rival. In a statement she said: ”
Ultimately, I have concluded that the best way to deliver the urgent change Scotland needs is to join with John Swinney and advocate for that reform agenda within the Scottish Government.
“I can therefore today announce that I will not be seeking nomination as the next SNP leader.
“John will therefore have my support and endorsement in any campaign to follow.”
You could hear the greeting and gnashing of teeth from Pacific Quay all the way over in Holyrood. The attention seeking James Cook is going to be deprived of an an opportunity to appear on camera telling us about Kate Forbes and John Swinney sniping at one another. The shame. Kate Forbes should be able to look forward to a senior position in John Swinney’s government. She is a talented and capable politician who should be offered the post of deputy first minister or finance secretary. She represents an important faction within the SNP and the wider independence movement and it is vital that she is given an important role to play in John Swinney’s government.
As he announced that he was standing for leader, John Swinney mentioned the divisions within the SNP and the need to heal them. The party certainly needs a full and frank internal debate about its future and about finding a credible way through the current impasse on a second independence referendum but the way to do that is not through a bitter and bad tempered leadership campaign in an election year. That would merely aggravate the divisions in the party while providing red meat to the SNP’s many opponents and damaging the party’s standing with the wider public.
It is to the immense credit of both John Swinney and Kate Forbes that thankfully calm heads have prevailed and barring the unexpected John Swinney should be appointed SNP party leader on Monday with a vote in Holyrood shortly thereafter to elect him as First Minister. The last torrid week of upsets in Scottish politics will thankfully have proven short lived and we can get back to the serious business of highlighting the duplicity and hypocrisy of the flag bedecked we’re not nationalists we’re British parties and making the case for Scottish independence.
I’m not going to lie, I am very relieved by today’s development. I was dreading the prospect of another bruising and bitter leadership contest with the anti independence parties and their supporters in the Scottish press licking their lips in anticipation of an orgy of ‘SNP divided’ bad publicity. No doubt Starmer would have used it as cover to sneak out another right wing U turn which would be all but ignored by the anti-independence press in Scotland while the SNP would be constantly compared to the dysfunctional and nasty meltdown that passes for a Conservative government at Westminster.
Instead the SNP has achieved something utterly beyond the abilities of the chaotic extremists of the Conservative party, or the duplicitous opportunists of Keir Starmer’s Labour party, they’ve behaved with maturity and good sense, proving that they are the only grown ups in the room, and for that we should be deeply grateful to John Swinney and Kate Forbes for putting the good of Scotland and the cause of independence ahead of personal ambitions.
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Obviously recent developments concerning Peter Murrell will attract a lot of interest and people will want to express their views. However I must remind people that Scotland has very strict laws about contempt of court and you must exercise extreme caution in what you post. Ideally it is best to say nothing. I must also warn you that you are personally responsible for any comments you make.
Wee Ginger Dug 
As long as Forbes is Finance Secretary or DFM – or both – it’s probably the best option.
She needs an education on freeports!
eye on the prize & the prize is independence
Nothing else matters 🏴
I’d actually say that everything else matters more – but none of it is achievable without independence. And this is what needs to be made crystal clear to the people of Scotland.
can’t have one without the other- as you say!
Reading the article in the National by Lucy Jackson, it isn’t only the overtly Onion press that are disappointed.
Even going so far as to ‘wonder what would have happened’ if Kate Forbes had made an announcement first. ”Would her decision be any different? Was she under pressure or influenced by Swinney’s suggestion that she would be given a senior position in his government if she struck a deal and stood down?“
Oh and the room was crowded and the journalists were pushed to the back.
And she reports that, asked by the beeb if he’d deliver independence she opines
“Well, he couldn’t exactly say no, could he?
“As the only pro-independence newspaper in the room, I wanted to ask him what his actual plans were for achieving independence. You know, something tangible and real that our readers might be able to get behind.
“It was frustrating that he wasn’t pushed further, and even more so that The National wasn’t picked to ask my question. My request for a follow-up chat with Swinney to clarify his position has – at the time of print – not received a response.“
He hasn’t even been appointed yet!
All the press have left is “stitch-up”, “back-room deal”, “continuity candidate” yada yada yada.
Well I am disappointed in the the continuity aspect of this decision but I can understand why Kate Forbes felt it wiser to accept whatever offer was made. From her statement it sounds as though a substantial change of course was promised. Let’s see where everything stands after the new cabinet is announced. I do hope Ivan McKee is back too.
I’m happy with the ‘continuity’ of ever larger SNP / Yes party wins in successive elections. 🙂
Forbes was Team Sturgeon of course, as is Swinney.
What’s important here is that the only two possible leaders seen sense and got together and worked something out between them that they could both support.
Not only is it the best solution for the party but the best solution for those that support Independence. There is a General Election on the horizon and to have a bitter and nasty contest between Swinney and Forbes is the last thing the SNP need right now.
It is an absolute certainty that even if it wasn’t anything like “bitter and nasty” it would be made to look that way by the propagandists who’s only mission is to destroy the SNP and with it kill any hope of Independence for decades at least.
I’m sure that both potential leaders were perfectly capable of thrashing something out and that both parties come away satisfied that this was the best solution for all at this time.
Kate Forbes has time on her side and this will be a great opportunity for her to be given more media exposure and dare I say it more time to get used to what you say being distorted and lies of what you said making the headlines.
I think it’s certain that there will be another leadership contest in the not too distant future and it will likely be between Forbes and Flynn, right now I’d say Flynn has the edge in terms of experience in dealing with the media and Forbes has the edge in having served in Government and doing a good job.
She knows this as well, let’s give both Swinney and Forbes a chance to get on with their prospective jobs whatever they are. They both have my full backing and I’m sure that is true for a great many other members and supporters of the SNP.
She knows this as well, let’s give both Swinney and Forbes a chance to get on with their prospective jobs whatever they are. They both have my full backing and I’m sure that is true for a great many other members and supporters of the SNP.
______________
They certainly have mine. Kate Forbes was my first choice in the previous leadership election, but I was not disappointed when Humza Yousaf won.
It may be a good appearance that the Party doesn’t go in for a quick coronation – we can leave that, and the subsequent regicides (plural) to the Tories. Let it not be forgotten that any Member can put themselves up for election. And as the father said to his son who wanted to be a lorry driver when he grew up, “I won’t stand in [their] way.”
“And the alliance between Mr Swinney and Kate Forbes is, so incredibly obviously, right.“
From Message Matters unionist Andy McIver. Also
“This time next month, Scotland seems likely to have a First Minister whose middle name is Competence, and whose government may be ready to reacquaint itself with the matters of importance to the everyday people of this country.“
https://archive.is/00Lxx
Almost reluctantly I’m forced to agree.
It does feel that the SNP has followed the Tories playbook here. After allowing the membership to elect a leader that has failed the parliamentarians have decided to prevent the members having a vote and installed a ‘safe pair of hands’. Probably the right decision, but another unelected leader.
Prey explain how members were prevented from having a vote? Nominations remain open until Monday. Their is an active leadership contest underway as we speak. You just need 100 backers out of 70k members (last count) to enter.
Right now, the only people stopping members having a vote are members who won’t stand. Like say Joanna Cherry or Forbes. If Cherry choses not to stand, she’s not letting members vote for their preference; she’s preventing a contest. All members who don’t stand are doing this. But hey, it’s not like we can force people.
By contrast, the only person encouraging members to have a vote is John Swinney, who put his hat in the ring.
That is the 100% democratic fact of the matter.
I suspect we won’t agree here, but what I have seen has been cabinet members rushing behind an unexpected but safe candidate, who then held negotiations with the only other credible candidate who has agreed to step aside for a return to cabinet position (and potentially other concessions). That feels like a parliamentary body that has learned from recent mistakes: allowing Swinney to assume the leadership unopposed.
Have you considered that maybe these cabinet members knew exactly what taking the leadership of the SNP and position of FM meant to their everyday lives and came to the conclusion that for now they are not ready to handle that pressure?
That’s what I think is bound to be the case for at least some of them, they have saw what Nicola Sturgeon had and still has to put up with by becoming FM.
They saw the treatment meted out to Humza Yousaf and the abuse he was on the receiving end of on social media but also in real life at his home in Dundee.
How many individuals are truly strong enough to deal with such pressure as well as daily media hounding while trying to run a country?
Such people are few and far between and I know for a fact that it is not something many people could even contemplate never mind deal with. Swinney deserves a medal for taking on the job and I’ll bet he wishes he didn’t feel that he had to take on this job and is doing it for the sake of his party and those that will lead after he has gone.
I doubt he seeks plaudits or power but does it because he feels an obligation to all those within the party and supporters of the party that have begged him to do so.
Have you considered that at all?
They could just as easily have backed Kate Forbes and skipped the rigours of FMship. After all, she had actually stood for the position.
So why a full court press to promote John Swinney who, until this week, was looking forward to spending more time with his family?
“They could just as easily have backed Kate Forbes and skipped the rigours of FMship“
They didn’t though did they and that was entirely up to them. If you were an elected member would you have allowed someone else to tell you who you should back? I doubt it.
What matters is that Kate Forbes has backed John Swinney and nothing else.
That is the one back-room deal that has taken place and it was between them and I’m absolutely positive that Kate Forbes was perfectly satisfied and made her own mind up as to whether she wanted to stand or not.
She made the right choice as far as I’m concerned and I’m sure the vast majority of SNP supporters think the same.
What you feel does not mean what is the reality.
Anyone can step forward like Swinney has done. Nominations close on Monday.
If there had been no contest, it would be extremely concerning, and I’d be leaving the party. But there is normal, fully democratic contest where any member can stand and super easily, with plenty of time to do so.
https://archive.ph/IYTaQ#selection-1977.0-1977.126
Prospective candidates will have to gain the support of 100 members from 20 different SNP branches to qualify for the contest.
If nobody does, it’s because they think Swinney is the best man for the job and they don’t have a chance of defeating him.
Swinney is the man promoting choice. He’s the only member doing so by putting himself forward.
It’s really that simple.
And if nobody stands against Swinney, he will be the elected leader. No vote has been prevented. Nominations remain open. Anyone can stand. MSPs/MPs have stopped nothing whatsoever. We are just waiting now to see if someone else will put their hat in the ring. I could do this if I had the backing.
If nobody else stands, they could still send out ballot papers, but that would be a bit silly as there’s be only one box to tick. It would be like my daughter playing an empty opposite side of the court at tennis because her opponent withdrew, you know, serving away until she won all the matches etc. Instead, she just is awarded the win, which makes a lot more sense.
Exactly. If no one else stands, JS will be ‘elected, unopposed’. He will then need to be ‘elected’ by a majority of MSPs before he becomes FM. Great to see SNP big-hitters uniting for the greater good.
Condolences and kind thoughts going out to JC, GC and all at Pacific quay at this difficult time.
Woops, nearly forgot C4’s KS. She looked fair upset the night.
The media are absolutely pathetic, they are so transparent and their agenda is plain as day. This 8m report from Channel 4 is probably as good as it will ever get, how far they have fallen if that is the case.
Why is John Swinney doing this? You decide.
As I said upthread, deserves a medal.
How refreshing to see an intelligent interview conducted of the man, rather than the attacking interruptive approach of C4, BBCS, etc..
The folk who will keep banging on about back room deals and party machine bullying to make sure Kate Forbes wouldn’t stand are no more than troublemakers attempting to create and press a case that doesn’t exist
Kate Forbes is not some wee lassie that can be bullied or cajoled in or out of anything, if she had wanted to stand she would have and no one and nothing would have prevented her, and it’s doing her a disservice to spread this type of stupidity otherwise
As for the unelected Swinney part that the Alba zealots are knocking around let me just say this isn’t America, we don’t have a presidential system, so instead of being so jealous perhaps Alba might take a look at their own unelectable leader who they will never be able to get rid of because he’s a dictator and has the lowest poll ratings (even worse than Sunak) in British politics
Bit boring. Less exciting but competent, no less. After the Greens forced Humza out. Humza still adding support. Less emphasis on minor policies and more on major topics.
Kate Forbes knows the score. Facts and figures to call Westminster out. A future FM, no doubt.
I’ll admit I was concerned about John taking the role but because he is taking Kate along with him I have high hopes for the unification of the party – as for the unelected crap above – get a life
The best leaders are those who are great leaders but reluctant to lead. When they step forward at the behest of their colleagues, they tend to do an excellent job. They are generally very diplomatic people who can unite and get the best from others. They are not necessarily the best person to have in charge all the time, and you’ll struggle to get them to do that. But when they are really needed, they will step forward because they think of the cause not themselves.
If there is someone in the SNP who has such qualities, it would be Swinney.
Forbes went up in my estimations by not standing. Her time may yet come.
Well the Labour vote is down big style in Blackpool South. They’ve lost 1752 voters on 2019, which was their worst defeat since 1935..
And in the locals they are so far significantly behind the smaller parties andindependents in terms of gains.
BBC trying to spin it as a good day for Starmer but that’s not the story.
The polls say Labour are deeply unpopular and can only win seats if people give up any hope of change, so stay at home. Results coming in from England support this so far.
10,825 is Labour’s lowest total number of votes in Blackpool South since 1983. The next lowest is 1945.
And this was a pretty safe Labour seat since 1992 right through to 2019.
Turnout just 32.5%.
This bodes ill for the UK union. People want change, and that change is not Labour. Far from it.
The BBC is openly lying about a ‘swing’ from Lab to con. There has been none. Tory voters staying at home is not a ‘swing to Labour’. Neither is 14% of Labour 2019 voters feeling they can affect no change by voting Labour so no doing so.
What the BBC should be reporting is the breakdown of British politics. How the people are utterly despondent and fed up with corrupt, self-serving Westminster rule. But it is part of this rule / establishment, so it will never do that. It’s job is to hide the truth and keep the establishment in place, as per its charter.
JFS&G, % of voter roll for 2024, 2019, 2017 and 2015 GEs
Labour 19.1, 21.8, 30.1, 23.6
Tory 5.7, 21.8, 25.8, 19.1
Ref/Brex/UKIP 5.5, 3.5, 2.3, 9.8
LibDem 0.7, 1.7, 1.1, 1.3
Green 0.7, 1, 0.6, 1.5
No wonder they want to talk about swing etc., UK politics is sinking in England….
Red wall Tories that voted for Johnson to “Get Brexit Done” now know they were well and truly duped by the fat boy from Eton.
Not only have they turned away from the Tories but it looks like they are so scunnered that they plan to never vote for anybody ever ever ever again.
Joanna Cherry on why she backs John Swinney as leader.
Joanna Cherry: I’ve known John Swinney for decades – but I backed Kate
I should have liked to see a contest and a battle of ideas about the future direction of our party, the Scottish Government, and the cause of independence, but I understand the fear that the acrimony generated by that would not be desirable with a challenging General Election so close.
https://archive.is/nc0yM
good to see JC coming on board the hostile media have nowhere to go now with the party unifying under JS and any disagreements being kept to internal debate and not giving the media the opportunities they crave to sow division
I agree. With the grown ups in the room there’s hope for reform. The media will be so sad 😭
Kate seems to have let some of her fans down by not standing; after all, nothing stood in her way, what with the more popular Yousaf gone. Likewise polling showed she was right up there in terms of popularity with Swinney too.
I think her fans are wrong to be angry / upset with her though; she should not feel pressured by them into taking on a very tough role if she feels its not her time. It’s very wrong of such people to say she created a ‘stitch-up’ or ‘coronation’ by choosing not to stand. If you say that, you say it of every member who chose not to put their hat in the right, including e.g. Joanna Cherry.
I personally feel Forbes made a good decision, and she’s gone up in my estimation as a result; her first movement in this since the 2023 leadership election. Because she chose not to stand, I now feel she is more suited to a leadership role and if Swinney announced he was putting her as DFM, I’d back that decision.
Shona Craven’s article on “progressive” policies, which Joanna Cherry mentioned, is also worth a read.
https://archive.is/PVFgE
So Labour in England in reality didn’t do half as well as they hoped they would, and why? wrecking party *Reform* did them the huge favour of stripping out Tory votes
Funny isn’t it, in England it looks like “vote Reform get Labour”
There’s a lesson and a warning in that for Scotland’s independence supporters
Environmental campaigners have defeated the Tory Government today in the High Court over their failure to do enough to meet their targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
The court have ordered the government to redraft their plans which are nothing more than wishful thinking that the Government Minister signed off on without any evidence that the targets could be achieved.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68947242
The opening sentence in the BBC article referred to above:
‘The government has been defeated in court – for a second time – FOR NOT DOING ENOUGH to meet its targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions.’ (my emphasis)
What the judge actually said and only reported way down in the BBC piece: ‘Mr Justice Sheldon said: “IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO ASCERTAIN FROM THE MATERIALS PRESENTED TO THE SECRETARY OF STATE WHICH OF THE PROPOSALS AND POLICIES WOULD NOT BE DELIVERED AT ALL, OR IN FULL.”
A Reuters report on the same matter online is less ‘mild’ than the BBC: ‘UK’s new climate action plan UNLAWFUL due to delivery risk, High Court rules’ and explains: ‘The court’s judgment – that carbon budgets set by the government in 2023 to meet the UK’s target of net zero emissions by 2050 were set without evidence they could be achieved – means Britain will have to submit a new plan for a second time.’
And on the nature and potential influence of rhetoric over climate targets and achievements in Scotland: https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2024/05/02/major-labour-donor-allowed-to-misrepresent-snp-climate-change-achievements/
Why is it that people like him and the Times think they can get away with anything because it’s just the sweaty socks they’re lynching? This is no joke.
England must be the only country in the world to think that’s not racism and incitement to hatred
It now doesn’t matter what colour we are anymore, It appears that just being Scottish is enough to be the acceptable target for the racists and bigots
There is a pattern here. These people all present / presented a serious threat to the UK when in office, so England tried to have them hung with varying degrees of success.
Salmond – Attempted to get him jailed
Sturgeon – Attempting to get her jailed
Yousaf – Forced him from office
Swinney – Attempt to have Forbes elected instead / sow division between the two and their backers
Message = UK does not want experienced and popular ‘continuity candidates’ as SNP leader.
How did England attempt to have Forbes elected instead?
Their media have been very supportive of her. The Spectator has been going overboard in defending her against the ‘SNP machine’.
I don’t see this as they actually like her. No, they hate her just as they hate Scots generally. But they want to create division. If there was a contest between her and Swinney, they’d be sympathetic to her fighting against the ‘liberal w*ke SNP machine’ until she might actually win, at which point they’d attacking her as dangerously right wing and not at all what SNP voters should be voting for.
Which is why my estimation of her as gone up sharply for her not standing, but advocating Swinney, so much so I’d smile broadly if she ends up DFM under him.
Not much hope of influencing things of course, but they tried!
A selection of recent headlines from our neighbour’s right-wing papers.
Someone could report that to Police Scotland as a hate crime, with incitement to violence.
I can’t be bothered, but I am serious.
Pretty sure if we did a cartoon with Tory PMs strung up like Mussolini there would be outrage you could measure by the yard.
The Unionists are desperate to see the SNP die. It is a source of fear and worry that the SNP have been in power for 17 years. Actually 4 leaders in 20 years isn’t bad…the Tories will likely manage that in 18 months when Sunak goes.
Labour: Winning when you feel there’s no hope of change so stay at home!
This is who is supposed to save the UK. They need less than 50% turnout to start edging towards the mid 40%’s. The more folk come out to vote, the worse it is for Labour.
They have not won over a single voter since 2019 NET, hence the Blackpool South disaster. Down 1750 voters on 2019 in the face of the horrible racist train crash that is the Tories & Reform. Jeezo.
Starmer wins if you give up hope. He needs despondency. He needs people to have given up faith in the British political system completely… for them to feel they can change nothing by voting.
In Scotland change is possible. Through independence.
See my figures for Blackpool South above, the downward trend is evident from 2017 – Only the Tory Mk2 creation (Reform/Brexit/UKIP) has bucked the trend, likely by picking up disenchanted Tory Mk1 votes but in decreasing %age…
For some reason the BBC doesn’t mention the disastrously (for the UK union) low turnout of just 32.5%.
https://archive.ph/CFPZE
Labour losing nearly 2k voters with no swing to them is reported as a resounding victory with a large swing.
Exactly – The voters roll has varied between ca 48,450 in 2017 and 56,540 in 2024, and nobody asks why 38,000+ voters on this occasion said screw it.
At some point London’s political disconnect was always to hit a democratic brick wall, that’s why the Tories created their own enemy, but the electorate ain’t biting – Seriously, less than 10% of this electorate support Tice and his blonde clown, but they’re a force to be reckoned with ?
It reminds me very much of Israeli politics and it’s manipulation….
Excellent article as always. Totally agree.
Once again The National newspaper engages in unionist disgraceful rumour by picking the next SNP leader before the current candidate has even been confirmed as FM, once again cementing the opposition’s deliberate undermining propaganda about John Swinney only being the temporary *stopgap* FM
Using the media’s tried and tested *we’re no tellin ye who said whit* method they insist SNP *insiders* have told them this that and the next plan they have to keep Kate Forbes from ever being FM should she try again sometime in the future, then the fast becoming ghastly rag goes on to talk about those folk being *Sturgeon’s allies*
Who’s writing this shit these days, Alex Salmond?
I’ll never buy another copy of this crud again, and maybe even I’ll start burying it under the Daily Express budgie cage paper where it belongs
I get your point Dr J. Far too often these days The National engages in chronic clickbait online . Methinks Snp insider is a person who knows someone who knows someone or who does not exist at all
A man down at the pub – you know, the bloke with the 3 legged dog, can drink anybody under the table – told me that his wife’s friend overheard somebody on the bus say
I’m going to cancel my subscription. I’d reach the end of the trial period and was going to let it ride. The amount of substantiated reporting/journalism over the past few days has now tipped the balance beyond creditable.
I’ll hang around if I’m too late to stop this month’s subscription. Otherwise I’m offski. Won’t be giving them a third chance either!
That’s Unsubstantiated reporting and beyond credibility, not creditable.
Aargh!
A headline in the National but it’ll do:
“John Swinney rejects claim independence is ‘frustratingly close’“
About time. It’s such a stupid and very annoying line:
“Independence has never been closer” when it plainly isn’t. What we need is complete and utter realism, which to be frank, is one of Swinney’s assets. Not just for us, but with the media / unionists. Tell it as it is.
And the Truth shall set us Free
It was part of this interview from last night with Kirsty Wark, I think he came over really well put her right on a couple of points.
In March 2011, BBC interviewers be like: ‘Salmond, you will be presiding over the SNP losing to a massive Labour victory, possible majority, in May. Look at this latest poll!’
For most of 2014, BBC interviewers be like: ‘SNP, what do think of the huge labour victory polls predict for May 2015? Look at this latest poll!’
He’s correct to say it has never been closer. Only recently has baseline Yes finally crossed the Rubicon, and that’s being very conservative.
For all the will in the world, it was never going to happen in 2014. 45% was incredible, but it was every Yes vote possible. In retrospect it was unwinnable, hence England didn’t stand in the way.
Polls in 2020 might have had people temporarily wanting to take back control in the face of covid it seemed, but that’s not what you need for indy. Nope, that just gets you a mess like Brexit, where people start changing their minds.
Instead, you need indy to be the settled will, specifically, the union is dead to a majority and they will never go back. Even with polls suggesting Yes voters are very much disengaged, unlike unionists (unsurprising given the election this year is a unionist one), that is where we are now. Could be way better of we see voter engagement rise so samples become more representative like IPSOS telephone polls are.
So he’s factually correct based on the available data.
I want a candidate that talks about indy as right there for the taking, and not one that says it is far away… some distance down the line… so best get on with domestics. Hence I back Swinney.
If there were a referendum now YES would win because of the excitement prospect value, the same was true in 2014 when there was an excitement value of around 10% or more which pushed the number to 45% at that time, but as long as *the polling* does not reflect a significant increase Westminster will use that as their excuse to deny Scotland its human right to ask and answer the question, they’re terrified
Bearing in mind that no referendum makes and must be enacted (except for the will of the English people’s British version of Brexit) and except for those in Northern Ireland all rights and privileges ignored for the sake of England’s made up pretend unity strategy, which is a playful euphemism for Violence Avoidance, which England has no fears of in Scotland, and eh, dae ye really think so? because if you do you’re wrong, it’s here and alive and angry and potentially far more dangerous than Northern Ireland in the 70s ever was, this is the digital age and will be if begun not the same thing at all
Over 70% of Scotland’s young people want independence badly and that number isn’t decreasing with time, it’s just the opposite
The Scottish bigot sectarian racists are losing because they are, for want of a better description, dying off, and Scotland will belong to the new generation that will refuse to stomach the drivel that pours from mouths of my generation of the brain dead brainwashed who prefer to be governed by England’s voters selection rather than their own friends neighbours and countrymen, it will be to them their ears are lent
I’m fairly old but I know I’m still going to be right here to watch and take part in Scotland’s independence day parades and extravaganza’s along with our youngsters, and what a time it will be for them to be young, and I envy them their lives in the rebirth of their and our own country
Swinney didn’t say it’s never been closer
My mistake. However, whoever said it’s never been closer is correct IMO.
I get why people look at polls and think more persuasion is needed though. Maybe they are right and I’m wrong.
https://archive.ph/1CpQ0
Giving his verdict on the results, Professor John Curtice said Labour had had a decent night but were not reaching their heights they did under Tony Blair before his landslide 1997 victory.
Curtice said: “There is plenty for Labour to be happy about, but in effect it looks as though we’re talking about Labour doing more or less as well as they did last year — which is not bad, and roughly what the opinion polls were saying.
“But it’s still the case that Labour are not heading for the kind of really dramatic local election performances that they managed to achieve under Tony Blair before the 1997 general election.”
Nope, this is so not 1997 all over again. Very far from it.
Well according to two England based journalists on Sky News this evening one of whom was Anne McElvoy who writes for the Evening Standard among others the other was a Times journalist Labour will have a massive majority after the GE as they will take loads of seats in Scotland from the Snp because the SNP has imploded. The arrogance of those types of journalists never fail to disgust me.
Well national UKGE polls have Labour projected to win 67% of seats. So far they’re on 44%. This looks like a serious underperformance.
Will be interesting to see how their final vote share looks compared to last year’s 35%.
If these were horses the commentary would be slightly different in that the Tory horse’s legs all broke before the race and all the people who were going to bet on that horse just didn’t, so the Labour horse was the only one running on one and a bit legs so would limp to the finish line fall over dead but still win by default with onlookers covering their eyes at the state of horse racing
But we know how the media will report it don’t we
Will be interesting to see if Labour actually managed to go up this year. I thought it was 35% last year in terms of national share equivalent, but it was 36% in this UK parliament study:
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7529/CBP-7529.pdf#page=78
Still, 36% was 8% lower than polls suggested their national support was, at least for UKGEs. The ‘other’ here of 17% is a good match for current GE polling when you add up Green and Reform shares. So Labour look more mid 30’s that low 40’s in actual voting vs polls.
By contrast, the Tories got 29% last year national share equivalent, which was basically identical to what UKGE polls had. The Tories it seems, can rely on their voters at every level. Labour cannot. It’s support is weak as people don’t like it, but may try to use it tactically. That’s a dangerous place to be, especially when you need a low turnout on top to win seats.
Can Labour replicate the glory days of Ed Miliband ahead of the 2015 election? Starmer’s popularity is similarly low, and as a share of the total eligible electorate, Labour’s VI is basically the same.
Slightly off topic, but still relevant (I think). I quit the snp in 2021 when i emailed Keith Brown to ask Him about The parties strategy about Scotland re-joining the EU. No Answer came the reply. Crickets. So against my better judgment i joined Alba. Late last year I went to an Alba meeting in Motherwell. Alex Salmond was present. I asked to pretty straight forward questions. One about potential legal loopholes in the treaty of union and the other about the possibility of ditching the monarchy and ending the feudal system before Independence. All I got in reply was political double speak and a rendition of some Jacobite poem. that told me that his ego was more important than the cause, but I still remained a member, all be it with seeds of doubt in my mind. As to Humza I him was a wee bit apprehensive about him, but he did have big shoes to fill. through time he did start to grow on me , then he resigned and I Thought oh crap here we go again despondency ran through my soul. Until today. Wee day off Today, lovely morning, so i went for walk around my wee home town of Blantyre. Festooned on lampposts where stickers with butchers Aprons and the logo SNP out. I tore everyone of them off hoping that whatever wee prick stuck them on would come up to me, but no luck there. On the way home I popped in the Asda for a few bits and bobs and loe and behold who is hanging about but that guy from the Liebour party Michael Shanks. I had to count To ten a couple of times to stop my self from throwing a few choice words at him. That’s it my gander is up again and now we have the prospect of getting ourselves back on course, next pay day I am re-joining The SNP.
Good stuff. Welcome back. I just donated again.
Thank you. Glad to be back!
Indeed, if you want to knock in a big nail you need a big hammer, if all you’ve got is lots of little hammers you end up bending the nail
This is what I have been saying may happen for some time. It does not look at all to me like 1997. Very far from it.
I’ve said time and again that Labour’s vote – in terms of real walking around people – has not measurably changed on 2019. Their supposed commanding poll position is an artefact of polling methods, and the fact these are not highlighting the stupidly low turnouts required to produce their headline VIs.
So far, as per last year’s locals, Labour look to be in worse position than Miliband in 2014.
https://archive.ph/hVI7O
Shock analysis says Labour will FAIL to win a majority at election
SHOCK analysis has predicted Labour will FAIL to win a majority at the next election.
Taking the results so far announced in the English local elections on Friday, Sky News’s elections analyst predicted Keir Starmer’s party will become the largest party after the General Election.
But in a major twist, Professor Michael Thrasher said they would fall short of an overall majority – meaning they would need to cut a deal with a smaller party to form a government.
He said the party would win 294 seats – which is 32 seats short of the 326 boundary needed to form a majority.With more than half of wards declared, Professor Thrasher said Labour’s vote has risen from 33% in 2019 to 35% on the current estimate.
That’s the recipe for a Tory win in England as soon as they fill their newspapers with cartoons of Scotland’s politicians looking like they’re picking the pockets of England’s taxpayers
Miliband and Corbyn were both treated to that deception by the Tories and England’s racism about Scotland made sure the Tories won and Labour dropped like a stone
Contrary to Andrew Neil’s assertion that everybody in Scotland hates the English, those who fall for this propaganda don’t seem to understand that many of us in Scotland are the English or are married to or have family living in England, whereas Andrew Neil and his ilk so dislike themselves and their Scottish heritage that they’d rather be English, now that’s worth plenty of Scottish righteous condemnation, is it not
Yup, as I thought. Labour are down on last year.
https://archive.ph/p4EVG
According to the BBC’s projected national share, an estimate of how the country would have voted if everywhere had had a local election, the Conservatives’ tally was just 25%.
That represents a one point drop on the same estimate last year and equals the record low previously recorded in 2013 and 1995.
However, Labour’s projected share has also fallen a point on last year to 34%, meaning the party’s nine point lead over their principal rivals has not changed.
Sir Keir Starmer has still not bettered the 38% Labour scored in 2012 under Ed Miliband’s leadership.
So compared to national polls (difference in brackets), seems we have 34(-10)% Labour vs 25(+2%) Con. This looks much more realistic for the GE this year, but with potential for Reform back to Con, bringing them up a bit. .
Still think the Tories will win the next GE. The best Labour can hope for is a hung parliament.
Tonight’s STV news is ferries that are still running and doing their job, and for some maniacal reason a hyperbaric chamber in Oban that’s only ever treated 400 people since the 1970s, that’s like an average of 8 people per year treated, not lives saved, just treated
How many ferries do they need for 70,000 people. Islanders.
4 new ones coming on stream. Two saving on fuel. Subsidised flights.
Diving centre at Oban. Charges for courses. Cover costs?
Neil out of a job. Craving attention. Hypocrite. Brexiteer in France. Trying Clickbait on the BBC pension. Public scrounger.
34% instead of 44% in England would be consistent with 25% here instead of 32%. That’s exactly what the main tactical unionist ticket got last time.
And that’s based on Prof Thrasher’s logic, with him writing the book on local vs UK elections.
No its consistent with Labour being 18.6 of the vote because that what it assumes (in you are interpreting NEV into GE reults). That the vote share in Scotland & seats in Scotland and Wales are the same as the last election.
NEV is a prediction of what the result in local elections would of been if every local authority in England had had elections – you can then, like Sky did use those figures as a GE prediction, as long you include the caviate that they are based on everyone voting the same in local elections as they do in GE (they don’t) and that turnout in the GE will be the same as in the locals (it won’t) and that nothing has changed in the voting patterns from the last election in Scotland and Wales.
I don’t understand your post, which seems to be directed at me?
Mid 30’s for Labour in a GE, as predicted by the expert Prof Thrasher, is very similar to my own conclusions based on the true number of real, walking around Labour supporters rather than %’s of %’s which can muddy the waters, especially mid term when incumbent party voters are not engaged.
It was a crude calc, but 0.77 x 44% = 34%, that’s how you get from Labour’s GE polling share to what they just got at the ballot box; an indicator of their real level of popular support. Also what Thrasher is suggesting for the GE, which he has a wealth of experience of. Ties in with 1997 when Labour got 10% less than polls had been consistently saying right up to when campaigns started.
Apply the same in Scotland, 0.77 x 32% = 25%. That is the level the main unionist party in Scotland has been getting for about 10 years now, presuming a reasonable turnout from SNP voters. The unionist have only done better when SNP voters didn’t turn out as much, like in 2017.
It’s also consistent with the real number of people in Scotland actually telling folk they plan Labour. As I have noted before, the total unionist share of real voters remains down on 2019 according to polling, in line with multi-decadal trends. Labour have picked up centre-right Tories in Scotland, putting them up on 2019. The Tories were the main unionist tactical ticket in Scotland in 2019; polls say this will be labour in the coming GE. They are preparing for this by plastering union jacks all over themselves like an Orange Order march down Sauchiehall Street. This will limit them to a fixed pool of pro-union voters, making it impossible for them to win in Scotland. Starmer doesn’t expect to win here though, so is focussed on winning England. I hope he does, narrowly. It’s key to accelerating the end of the UK.
Great we will find out if you are correct in a a few months. I think Labour will end up with a majority around 150-170 UK wide – in Scotland its too close to call, beyond that the SNP will loose seats and Labour will gain seats (its just the number that is in question) and the Unionist vote share will be above 50% – as indicated as the polling (in terms of total electorate it will be higher than the pro indy vote share).
I’ll bookmark this post and we can come back to it post election to see whose prediction was closest 🙂
If you / polls are correct and the experts like Prof Thrasher – and even Prof C to some extent (‘Labour are not popular / dull as dishwater and have gained not made any meaningful gains from the SNP’) are wrong, I’ll buy you a pint. 🙂
I of course don’t mind if your prediction comes off, as it would see the union over by 2026. As we saw in Blackpool South once more, Labour need people to stay at home to win a big majority, including Scots. If people turnout, their vote share shrinks rapidly. In Scotland, the extra turnout all goes to SNP historically. I’m not sure about England as I’m not English, so I’ll defer to Curtice and Thrasher.
It’s not really possible to ‘win’ in the conventional sense if the turnout is very low. Not like Labour 1997 or Tory 2019 (ok, that didn’t work out well anyway!). You get the seats, but from day 1 are hated and deeply unpopular, like e.g. Labour 2007 (which gave us SNP 2007 then 2011). For me that’s what we need for Holyrood 2026. We need a Labour government that Scots didn’t vote for, and that’s what every poll says will happen. Even if they came in narrowly ahead of the SNP like some polls suggest, that would still be a 66% rejection. They’d still have lost in Scotland as they’d be a government Scots didn’t vote for, especially if the turnout was low as all polls are suggesting. It’s a mammoth ask for them to get mid 40’s in Scotland on a sold turnout, which is the only thing that could bring back the pre-SNP days.
I know I irk other SNP when I say the UK election is pointless now Scots want indy, not unless it’s a defacto iref. But that is the harsh reality. Change cannot be affected by Scots in UK elections; that is what is driving them to support independence after all. Scotland’s future will be decided in Scotland. That means either Scottish parties turning a UK election into an iref, or a Scottish one into one. If the SNP do put ‘for indy’ on the ballot, that is at least something worth going out to vote for.
But Labour wining England is very important. The Yes movement need an English nationalist Labour government led by the deeply unpopular Starmer. It needs him plastering the Tory flag everywhere. That’s the ingredient we’ve been missing until, it seems, very soon.
So if you are correct, I will raise a pint with you to celebrate!
I note the other reason I really want Starmer in No. 10 is he is weak willed. Many Tories actually have backbone and can get very vicious. When Scots make their move for indy, it’s better they are facing a weak Starmer who will fold like a cheap suit. He’s not going to send in the tanks, whereas I’d not rule out the English Tories doing this!
Also what Thrasher is suggesting for the GE
Yes as i said above he is suggesting if people in England vote exactly the same in the GE as they did the in local elections and the seats /share stays exactly the same in Scotland stays the same as 2019 and turnout GE is the same as in the LE (which will be around 35-40%) then that will be result. Off course if any of these factors change in a General election then the result will be different.
Scottish polling consistently says 2019 will be repeated at least, certainly once normal tactical kicks in. So that’s probably why he’s making this assumption.
Some English attempts to poll Scotland from 400 miles away says the SNP will win (on average), but may lose quite a lot of seats. However these polls have a super chequered history. They were e.g. predicting a Labour win for 2011 when Scottish polls said SNP were on course for victory. They then predicted a tie for 2015 when Scottish polls said the SNP would take close to 50% of the vote. etc, etc. It’s why I treat them with caution. The only seem to suddenly get the right answer just before voting day a lot of the time, while Scottish polling calls it often far in advance. I think this is probably methodological primarily. What works in England doesn’t necessarily translate to other countries.
I see the BBC is more subdued about Labour this morning; just ‘notching up gains’.
Starmer will be increasingly worried now. 34% will not cut the English mustard and 25% in Scotland would be a f’n disaster. 32% is losing badly, but 25% is getting whipped. That’s the level where fine English / British FPTP starts wiping you out. He desperately needs to move right in England, but left in Scotland. Let’s see how that goes.
All feels a bit like late 2014. After the big blow of losing the referendum, Salmond resigning and polls showing Scots were apparently coming home to Labour with good old reliable English Panelbase saying 34% SNP / 32% Labour on October 1st, we started picking ourselves up and dusting ourselves off.
Then Scottish IPSOS told us the future, saying 52% SNP on the 29th October; a lone voice in the wilderness as usual, but also spot on as usual. It had it’s finger on the Scottish pulse, where England was miles off as usual. The rest is history. But of course back then baseline yes as 40% or so, now it’s over 50%. 1% a year gets you there in the end,
And ‘continuity SNP‘ – those that have been fighting for indy most or all of their adult lives – just ignore the unionist pejorative terminology insults directed at you. You more than anyone deserve to lead the SNP. Continuity SNP is who Scots continue to trust so continue voting for, hence the former continue to win elections and continue to move Scotland a little more towards indy each day. I am proud to be continuity SNP and I will continue to be so at least until Scotland wins her independence. Good to seek Kate Forbes now continuity too along with a younger generation.
I thought “Unity” was the new watchword. Kate Forbes is the “Unity” candidate.
That’s Swinney. He worked with Salmond who now runs the socially conservative Alba. Then with Sturgeon who was seen as on the socially liberal side. Now he’s welcoming Forbes who’s more socially conservative etc. It’s why he was encouraged to step forward; comfortably the most popular and unifying candidate amongst SNP members and voters. Also attractive to those on the moderate centre to left in Scotland while hate by Tories.
If the SNP thought Forbes was the top unity candidate, she’d be standing unopposed. She may now get the chance to prove she can be a unity candidate and lead down the line. To do that, she will need to appeal to young Scots who are socially liberal, pro GRR, same sex marriage etc. They are her future voters. She just needs to do what Yousaf did, and leave her wee free stuff in a bag by the office door each morning, allowing her to support freedom of religion / belief systems for all (= self-id, same sex marriage etc).
So “continuity” has been discontinued and replaced by “unity”?
Continuity won’t cut it, as Kate said.
I am talking about leadership, not policy. The SNP are a progressive party (hence the yellow flag), ergo they never have continuity policy-wise. That’s for conservatives. Continuity in leadership by contrast creates stability and long term success. That is needed for indy; a slow, but unstoppable march.
Kate did not see herself as a unifying candidate. She saw Swinney as this, hence endorsed his leadership bid. She realised she was the cause of too much division too recently, and that was not good for the SNP nor Scotland. It’s commendable and she’s shot up in my estimations for it. I hope this is a sign she’s learned from her previous slip-up and is maturing.
The unionists are heavily opposed to continuity candidates as these keep delivering ever bigger SNP/Yes party wins and higher baseline independence. They want someone inexperienced at the helm; someone they will fine easier meat and that Scots will worry about the competence of. Ideally this person should hold controversial, socially conservative views; views young Scots – who are the most socially liberal and the most pro-indy by a country mile – would be affronted by. If you want to slow indy down, you need to disillusion young folks with socially conservative governance.
The key to successful leadership continuity is training up young Padawans. That’s where Sturgeon missed a trick somewhat; she had no obvious successor lined up, albeit it she was caught by surprise in terms of being taken out. Yousaf was the most unifying, but he was not unifying enough. While he made good progress here, the split that developed in the leadership contest was difficult to undo. Sadly, the fringe elements kept on moaning about how SNP members – being Scots – cannot make the correct decisions for themselves, and should be told by other, non-SNP, who the best leader was for them.
Forbes understands the cause of this division, and has dealt those promoting it a blow by, it seems, putting the SNP and Scotland first. Good on her if this is how she saw things.
It depends what you mean by ‘continuity’. The way the media uses the term it has overall negative connotations which essentially means that all that has gone before has been failure.
Or view ‘continuity’ as a positive in that there will be a continuation of good governance that will introduce policies that benefit groups both large and small as well as society as a whole. These policies may be homegrown or based on examples from other countries adapted for Scotland.
Unfortunately some in the SNP as well as many in other parties go for the negative rather than the positive in the meaning of ‘continuity’.
There are no existing words that any opposition won’t turn into a negative connotation for something else
Because the unionist opposition is so vile in their behaviour, each perfectly normal word or description of anything becomes a spat out insult
I’ve always been a great believer in the old fashioned punishment of those that actually employ people to manufacture then engage in this practice, I unfortunately cannot write that down because I’d be arrested, that doesn’t stop my happy thoughts about the end results of doing it though
It was the lack of a ready to go continuity candidate that put the SNP in a pickle last spring.
Yousaf was not that well known and neither was Forbes. Both super experienced. Nobody had ever heard of Regan. Voters are very cautious in such scenarios. That lack of leadership continuity is what caused the SNP to appear adrift somewhat in the aftermath of Sturgeon’s departure. Yousaf was slowing winning voters over, but he’d started from an extremely difficult position.
They now look like a united party with a seriously experienced and liked leader being lined up. A party knowing what it needs to do to move forward. The media cannot talk of division when Forbes is openly endorsing Swinney and being lined up for a top spot on his team.
Both not super experienced d-oh. Experienced to some degree, but not super so. Yousaf more so that Forbes.
Well this is good news. Outbreak of support for democracy in Scotland.
Perhaps folk at long last are beginning to realise that there can never be anything close to any kind of democracy when an empirical system with Royalty as its leaders just transfers its power and authority to another building that’s led by a person with a different title but exercises that same Royal authority in exactly the same way as was done before, then still demands the same level of respect of the populace for the original title holder, King and the entirety of the family belonging to that King in perpetuity
So in effect the populace now has two Kings and a multitude of courtiers still taxing the people but even more now for two sets of empires in the one domain
They’re not entirely stupid these *Royal empire leaders* are they
From the newly re-elected Mayor of Liverpool, Englandshire:
“The road to Downing Street runs through transformative Labour administrations in local and regional government.”
So that’ll be the Jocks and Taffies who have “regional” government, won’t it?
OT but found this article most amusing https://archive.ph/BRfV4 . Timed perfectly to deflect voting in England’s local elections that their democratic vote didn’t matter a damn, along comes “Oh look, a Scottish political squirrel”.
Westminster’s lip-service to democracy is finally wearing exceedingly thin in England, just as it did in Scotland, then Wales and NI despite all the flag-hugging bullshit, yet this juvenile bulshitter come ‘influencer’, https://muckrack.com/andrew-mcdonald-10 appears paid to be the least informed writer in the UK…
That’s why Scots are saying bye-bye Andrew, they’ve finally had enough of total morons telling us the facts from Belgravia or a chateau in the South of France or god forbid Pacific Quay… So F off thank you…
These are the facts as redefined reinvented and rewritten for the digestion of (and I don’t know why) England
I guess they know because those folk don’t know that they’ll never know any differently
The world is England and I have an arrow in my eye
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24314568.murdo-fraser-teams-think-tank-reform-scottish-parliament/
The hypocrisy of this moron knows no bounds