Off to a flying start

Stephen Flynn and Mhairi Black could not have chosen a better day to kick of their new leadership of the SNP’s Westminster group. We are going to be seeing a lot more of both of them in their new high profile roles, and that can only be a good thing. The new leader Stephen Flynn had a baptism of fire, being thrown into the bear pit of Prime Minister’ Questions within hours of being elected as the SNP’s Westminster leader. It’s safe to say that he easily rose to the challenge, giving a confident and assured performance, completely unrattled by the baying mob of Conservative MPs facing him across the chamber and clearly enjoying the discomfort of both Labour and the Tories when he asked Sunak if the greatest achievement of the Conservatives was Brexit, leaving the Single Market, denying Scottish democracy, or seeing the Labour party adopt all those policies.

But the knife was really turned when he revealed that not fifteen minutes previously a new opinion poll commissioned from Ipsos-Mori by STV had found a sharp rise in support for independence. 56% of those polled would vote Yes if given the opportunity, an opportunity which Labour and the Conservatives are united in wanting to deny to Scotland. This is now the third poll since the Supreme Court ruling which has given a lead to Yes, it seems that Scottish people do not after all take kindly to judges sitting in a court in London telling them that they don’t get to decide what happens to their own country, and are giving that typically Scottish response to being told that they are not allowed to do something. Aye, pal, that WILL be right.

It’s not just the 6% rise in support for independence which is significant about this poll, it is also the fact that it gives good grounds for believing that a UK General Election used as a de facto referendum could actually be winnable. The poll gives SNP support at a Westminster General Election as 51%, with Labour trailing in a distant second on 25% and the Tories far behind on a paltry 13%, a drop of 6%. This would not only give the SNP the majority of votes cast that it sought in a de facto referendum, it would also deliver an almost complete wipe out of all the other parties with the SNP taking all but one of Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats. Both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems would face electoral obliteration, losing all of their MPs. Labour would be the sole anti-independence party to retain any representation, being reduced to a single MP, presumably Ian Murray, who would then insist that Scotland had rejected nationalism.

Scotland would have rejected nationalism, it would have rejected the English nationalism which has been espoused by both Labour and the Conservative party, but we all know that Ian has a blind spot as far as the English nationalism of his own party is concerned. You don’t need to be confirmed supporter of Scottish independence to see it. On Wednesday polling expert John Curtice was reported as observing that the Labour party has effectively given up on Scotland, doubling down on its support for a hard Brexit in its pursuit of leave supporting constituencies in the Midlands and north of England. Despite Starmer’s protestations to the contrary, the party has calculated that it is not worth the loss of support in England to court popularity in remain supporting Scotland by adopting policies favouring closer ties with the European Union.

What Scotland wants, and what even Anas Sarwar was until recently insisting was in Scotland’s best interests, is to be sacrificed on the altar of English nationalist exceptionalism and its Brexit delusions. But that’s not nationalist at all. Oh no.

The polling news for the SNP is even better if the party contests the next UK General Election as a de facto referendum in which it seeks a mandate for independence itself. Then 53% of respondents say that they would vote SNP, and a further 2% would put their cross next to candidates from the equally pro-independence Scottish Greens, support for other pro-independence parties is not explicitly given in the poll, but Alba achieved 0.7% of first preference votes in Scotland’s most recent elections, the local elections in May 2022, and 1.66% in the regional list vote in the previous year’s Scottish Parliament so it is entirely possible that the total combined pro-independence vote across all parties in a de facto referendum could reach 57%, or possibly even more given an effective and co ordinated campaign from independence supporters. Even the Holy Grail of 60% support for independence no longer seems totally out of reach.

60% support for independence has already been reached in Glasgow,South Scotland and Fife are not far behind. There is now a majority for independence in every region of Scotland. 33% of Labour voters now back independence. Field work for this poll was carried out before the non-event that was the unveiling of Gordie Broon’s profoundly uninspiring constitutional review. The paltry nature of Labour’s promises to Scotland may very well drive even more Labour voters to back independence.

The data set for the poll confirms that support for independence enjoys an apparently unassailable lead amongst people under the age of 55. These are the voters that the Yes campaign needs to ensure are both registered to vote, and that they turn out and vote on the day. Another fascinating finding from this poll is that a majority of those with higher educational qualifications or a university degree support independence. Opposition to independence has majority support amongst those with no educational qualifications, putting a lie to the frequent British nationalist slur that support for independence is the preserve of uneducated neds. In fact the uneducated neds are disproportionately to be found amongst opponents of independence, many of them infest social media professing their love for the royals and a particular fitba team.

Meanwhile the BBC on its Scottish politics page was studiously avoiding any mention of the opinion poll that gave support for independence a resounding lead but was instead asking whether not Nicola Sturgeon is “losing her grip on the SNP”. The answer is no, but the British state is most certainly losing its grip on Scotland, and the BBC has lost its grip on credibility.

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258 comments on “Off to a flying start

  1. Luigi says:

    Och don’t worry about the BBC ignoring the latest Scottish opinion poll. If the next one is only 55% support for independence the BBC are sure to jump back with their “Support for Scottish independence falls!” headline. Perhaps that is all they are waiting for?

  2. davetewart says:

    That idea of a ONE percent fall would be reported as

    Report of support for Independence crashes.

    Nicola’s refererdum is not wanted by the majority of unionists in Scotland.

    Any reports from the changes in the Barnett solution to the Scottish economy that is supposed to be put through westmonster this week?

  3. James Mills says:

    Clearly support for Independence under Nicola Sturgeon has been declining since Sept. 2014 according to The BBC – but they have been using Jackie Baillie’s Big Button Calculator – which is genetically incapable of adding up Scottish votes .

  4. Aye, some very nice polling and a great sum up of things.

    A I was mentioning at the end of the previous post, all the unionist parties and leaders are taking hits post UKSC, while that’s not happening for Yes parties / Sturgeon & Harvie / Slater. Sturgeon remains comfortably in net positive with a majority rating her as FM even before DKs are removed. That’s with all that’s going on with strikes, NHS pressures etc… but then voters know that ultimately, England takes their taxes, keeps a lot to subsidise itself, and short changes Holyrood back with a budget that can only go so far.

    Also, the Ispos results strongly suggest that UKSC +/- Starmer hard brexiteergate are hitting the ‘Labour revival’ ((C) UK media) in Scotland; something I was picking up in UK polling subsamples, albeit treating with caution. 25% for a UKGE is back to pre-mini-budget territory and suggests that 5-6% boost they had may have vanished like snaw aff a dyke thanks to Labour backing the ruling.

    But what else could the English party Scottish branch offices expect when they back a foreign court in a country with an aggressive government overturning Scottish elections? Oh but wait, it’s not foreign to them as they are British / English parties, which is probably why they consistently fail to understand the Scots electorate. You need to leave the British/English bubble for that and talk to actual Scots, most of whom are not British.

    Chumps.

    Oh and as for the BBC, it cannot be described as British in the traditional sense any longer. It is English only as long as Scots / Welsh / N. Irish are not free to choose it as their ‘state broadcaster’ at the ballot box. Until that time, it is now a foreign broadcaster. Like Russia Today operating in the occupied Ukraine.

  5. Capella says:

    Changing of the guard in the Westminster SNP. We’ll be hearing a bit less about Pete’s slippers now I hope.

    Pete Wishart resigns from SNP Westminster group’s frontbench

    The Perth and North Perthshire MP announced he would be stepping down as the group’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) spokesperson.

    In his letter to Flynn, he said: “It is with regret that I write to inform you of my decision to resign as the Westminster Group’s Defra spokesperson.

    READ MORE: Scottish independence poll raised by Stephen Flynn at first PMQs

    “I have only been in this role for a few short weeks, but I have immensely enjoyed building positive relationships with Scotland’s farmers, fishers and the wonderful people who work in the NGO community for animal welfare and environmental charities.

    “In my 21 years in parliament, I have served as spokesperson in a variety of front bench roles including as our shadow leader of the house and chief whip. I have never had the opportunity to experience the delights of the backbench and I look forward to serving your leadership from there.”

    https://archive.ph/7AX21

    • Eilidh says:

      Yeah well as far as I can tell the slippers thing re Pete Wishart mostly comes from the keyboard warrior types in the so called Independence movement/ unionist trolls who sit on their rear ends and whine all the time.Speaking personally that crap has never encouraged me to get involved in the Independence movement or join the Snp.It will be interesting to see who is on the Snp front bench at Westminster but I don’t think the Scottish electorate pay much attention to whom from the Snp is in Westminster. If support for Indy is rising it is far more to do with the FM and the SC decision then anything that happens in Uk parliament. Most people are not politics junkies and barely know who the FM or PM is . Well with so many PMs this year I can understand why they don’t know who the PM is

  6. Capella says:

    Stewart McDonald also resigns from the Westminster front bench. Looks like some changes afoot.

    Stewart McDonald resigns from SNP frontbench at Westminster

    Independence polling is extremely heartening. Our urgent task is to turn our strong position into a meaningful way forward. This requires sober, considered thought, and must engage fellow Scots who may not share our desired outcomes. There are no shortcuts. Getting it right will be a defining moment for our cause.

    “There are many views about how we progress. In the finest traditions of the Scottish National Party. I look forward to actively engaging in what I know will be a robust, respectful and well-informed debate as we approach the special conference next year.

    “I congratulate Stephen and Mhairi on their election. Both have my full and unequivocal support.”

    https://archive.ph/rkXGr

    • yesindyref2 says:

      What an eejit he is, he is actually good with his defence brief.

      I think Flynn should refuse to accept his resignation. Or appoint him as defence spokesman.

      • yesindyref2 says:

        Well, unless he’s giving up that role to conecntrate on doing similar for an Indy white paper. Perhaps with Alyn Smith and Angus Robertson.

      • Legerwood says:

        No I think he is correct to resign that way Mr Flynn is not tied to his predecessors choices. At the same time it offers Mr Flynn the choice to re-appoint Mr McDonald to his front bench team thus demonstrating his confidence in Mr McDonald and allowing Mr McDonald to show he is there on merit and not as a possibly unwanted holdover.

  7. Jane Russell says:

    “the BBC has lost its grip on credibility”. Never a truer word spoken. And it’s not just the BBC in Scotland. I find myself checking the slant on all news delivered from the Manchester and London studios of the BBC.

  8. Hamish100 says:

    I see bbc politics ignores the poll which even the hootsmon and others report on it however derisory. So they do know about it.
    It’s weird because the state broadcaster keeps referring to polls supplied by the unionists that we don’t want a referendum. They ignored the actual election results.

    So bad news again by the bbc webpage with the wee promo for the Labour Party branch.

    To think when I was wee as was taught to look up to this shower as pillars of impartiality and truth.

    They are malevolent against Scotland and the truth.

  9. Luigi says:

    The National was Welland truly buried at the back of the supermarket newspaper stand today. No-one could see the “56%” headline. It almost looked deliberate lol. Don’t ya just love those self-appointed defenders of the union?

  10. Jock G says:

    When it comes to covering Scotland the BBC is less like a national broadcaster and more like some weird niche podcast about Rangers and true crime

    • JP58 says:

      I am neither a Rangers or Celtic fan but believe it or not still manage to love football.
      Some Unionists (Murdo Fraser and no doubt some in I brow boardroom) continue to try and use Rangers as a vehicle to boost No support.
      There are however a considerable number of pro- independence Rangers supporters so please do not fall into Unionist trap by bringing football into independence debate – it is counter productive.
      I think there are enough other issues with Rangers to criticise without playing their game on independence debate.

      • Bob Lamont says:

        Oh for goodness sake, note the preceding “more like some weird niche podcast” – It had SFA (pun unintended) to do with a football team, rather than highlighting HMS James Cook’s penchant as his predecessor HMS Sarah Smith for propaganda games.

        • JP58 says:

          Calm down.
          The BBC is the British Broadcasting Company and are the state broadcaster and a key part of British establishment so you cannot really expect impartiality from them on this subject. Like many I no longer watch a lot of news on BBC (some of the other Uk channels are not much better.)
          If you really want to hurt BBC don’t pay licence fee.

          • Bob Lamont says:

            I haven’t paid the BBC licentious tax in over 20 years and still think on HMS James Cook whenever I see a pigeon shit….
            The difference is you taking exception to the example given of football… Rest easy, it wasn’t the target ok ? 😉

  11. Bill McDermott says:

    There is another aspect of the poll that needs emphasising, since LabConLib keep saying Scots don’t want another referendum. Andrew Bowie was at it again yesterday on Daily Politics as was Sarah Boyack. There is now a clear answer to that with majority support for a Referendum/ De facto Referendum in the next two years from this poll.

    • Bob Lamont says:

      What this poll does not convey however is at the last count 62% in England support IR2 as a democratic right, this despite the media bombardment of “once in a generation” etc..
      England’s electorate are getting pretty damned sick over the binary choice of the colour of tie purporting to be democracy being their sole choice at elections, Bowie (RN failed) and Boyack (Labour failed) are farting via the Daily Smell and we’re supposed to take this schtick as serious political offerings of solution ?
      Here’s an an example of Bowie’s intellect hard at work https://youtu.be/UAS7yP-nYbo , be my guest as to the degree of arsed stupidity on display, little wonder the Royal Navy responded with a P45 on completion of training.
      The Daily Smell are way beyond the point of being honest brokers, hence Sarah Boyack and RN failed Bowie being featured I guess…

  12. proudcybernat says:

    Also of great significance in this IPSOS poll for STV is that the base age was 18+. It excluded 16-17 years olds. This demographic is surely worth at least another 2%. But amazing seeing such a poll lead even with 16-17 year olds excluded.

    • Actually, this is true and not true. For iref and Holyrood they used 16+, but for Westminster, including defacto iref, they used 18+. They have a long and well established record here, including an office!

      Makes the 55%+ for defacto ref in a UKGE look very nice!

    • Oh, and your post reminded me of a comment I saw earlier on, but can’t remember where it was. A tweet I think.

      Anyhoo, swing the biggest here (Since May):

      55+ Years old
      46(+8)% Yes
      54(-8)% No

      #strawsinthewind

      • Luigi says:

        Nice to see the old gits (myself included lol) finally coming on board. Must be spiralling food and energy costs. One can’t help but notice, despite the BBC’s best effort to downplay the economic collapse of the UK. History shows that as declining powers/ empires approach their demise, more and more useless individuals come to power. Strange but true.

  13. Alex Clark says:

    You know, I think that the fact the BBC have clamped up about this opinion poll isn’t going to go unnoticed by those that are merely interested in politics, and like to keep themselves to themselves if you know what I mean.

    They are exactly the type of people who unlike us don’t follow events day by day by do pay attention when they hear of something that might be important has happened.

    That important thing happened yesterday when a long established pollster Ipsos Mori showed an increase of 6% in support for Independence since their last poll asking this question six months ago.

    I’m sure that in the back of their mind they will be wondering why it wasn’t reported at all by Reporting Scotland as if it was something they were trying to hide. I think that’s what need to focus more attention on now, and that’s attacking the BBC for their lies, omissions and propaganda in support of the Union.

    The Tories are toast now and we need pay them scant regard, Labour needs to be shown up for the Tory light party that they are but most of all we now need to raise awareness of the lying, deceitful, and most powerful Unionist mouthpiece, the BBC.

    The people of Scotland deserve to be told the truth and the BBC are above all liars.

    • grizebard says:

      Yes, the BBC Scottish colonial outpost is getting to be expert at lying by means of careful omissions and judicious half-truths. It’s too systematic to be an accident or occasional oversight. They push a weary agenda that is a visible confection, not a faithful reflection of the opinion of more than half – and growing! – of the people of Scotland.

  14. JP58 says:

    Yet despite all the media bias support for independence (and SNP) keeps on increasing because most people factor in the negativity from media.
    There is little that can be done with continuing negative media except respond with clear, positive information.
    Do not get sucked into fighting with something you cannot change. I am as sure that the march on BBC in 2014 frightened off a few potential Yes voters while Unionist supporters crowing about the SC decision similarly alienated voters from No side.The ignorance and arrogance of Westminster and MSM only impresses hardened No voters and may even help recruit wavering voters to Yes side.

    • Alex Clark says:

      Who’s talking about marching on Pacific Quay?

      It certainly isn’t me, I’m talking about exposing the media for their lies and duplicity in reporting (or non-reporting) of any news that is related to Independence. This is something that is very successfully done by https://twitter.com/msm_monitor and
      https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14 among others on Twitter.

      I would like to see others that don’t use Twitter or other platforms tell us on WGD when they have witnessed obvious bias by the MSM against Independence. Prof. John Robertson of talking Up Scotland has plowed a lonely furrow for quite a long time in his exposure of the BBC in Scotland in particular.

      I think we all should be doing our best to follow his example and do the same wherever we can. The BBC is now the main block to Independence for Scotland and we need to recognise that and do what we can to negate their influence by exposing them at every opportunity. The more the merrier.

      • grizebard says:

        The BBC is not the only stumbling block in the broadcasting sector, but certainly one of the most hypocritical. I wonder though at what point its wangling becomes counterproductive. I suspect that this may even already have happened. A couple of my acquaintance who were always diehard Labour recently surprised me by moving over to supporting independence because they first realised the BBC wasn’t being “straight” over other matters (eg. Brexit), then finally transferred that understanding over to the issue of independence too.

        As for “the main block”, I would say the Anglo Labour Party must also be a contestant in that miserable competition. There will always be some people willing to give it yet another listen, despite all prior evidence to the contrary, and so long as its leadership (puppet and absentee master) approaches independence with its fingers in its collective ears, and promotes fantasy “alternatives” like the latest dud wannabe distraction from Brood, it will be an inevitable drag on progress. As its membership increasingly looks elsewhere for inspiration, it may further destroy itself in Scotland trying, but could well cause collateral damage in the process.

  15. One theory about ambulances queueing for hours outside A&E departments is that they can’t get near the place for BBC/STV/SKY Outside Broadcast Units blocking the road, and Lisa Summers and Co blocking the hospital entrance doing their ‘this is all Nicola Sturgeon’s Fault’ L!ve bulletin 15 times a day.

    The thing is, we Joe and Josie Mac Public know that our HS is under unprecedented pressure..Covid WM poverty Years.. Truss Blue Tory inflation…
    as are other HS on these isles and beyond.

    Sarwar Dross Coal-Scuttle and Richard Mountain were blaming Nicola Sturgeon for everything from Mental Health to Cancer Waiting Times. It’s all her fault.

    The Millionaire Dentist, 4 Jobs Dross, and The Tailor’s Dummy would sort it all out in a trice, if only they were in charge; if only the pesky voters would see the light and realise that only these three jokers have a solution…which they will keep to themselves until we vote for them.

    BBC Scotland is a disgrace…every night they churn out this HS in crisis nonsense..to what aim?

    We all know that we are deep doo doo, because we are held fast by the English Oligarchy.
    BBC Scotland is relentless in churning out this Brengland propaganda day in day out.

    Dr Andrew Buist gets big licks every week, his Scotland’s HS is shite quotes a regular feature at FMQ.
    He is now head honcho of the British (UK) GP associaiton. His masters are WM and England.

    Well, he’s supposed to be one of the professionals hired to provide solutions, he is not Douglas Ross’ Brit lap dog.

    The only way forward for Scotland is to cut all ties with England, and the Fifth Columnists Up Here working for England’s continued colonisation of our land.
    I insist that our hospitals and GP surgeries ban these ambulance chasers from their premises.

    They are causing fear and alarm among the population, merely to undermine our Government.
    It’s comin’ yet for a’ that.
    56% and counting.

    • UndeadShuan says:

      And NHS England is in a worse mess, they have had no where near the investment over last decade that Scotland has had in buildings and equipment.

      In NHS Scotland, there are plans in place for new elective care centres to be built with operating theatres and wards to allieviate the waiting list backlog for operations.

      Some will already be operational, full details below..

      https://www.gov.scot/publications/nhs-recovery-plan/pages/6/

      With A&E i did hear on tv that 1/3 of people visiting should not be there, but should have used 111 or pharmacy/GP instead.

      Similarly with people wrongly caloing out an ambulance, but im not sure what can be done about that. As any sanction for misuse could put off vulnerable/genuine cases from calling an ambulance.

      • Hamish100 says:

        If labour had still been in charge there would be no Monklands Hospital, Vale of Leven ( are you listening Tory Baillie), Hairmyres amongst others.
        In England https://fullfact.org/health/number-hospital-beds-falling/
        Tories are worse than this. The Brexit bus lies https://metro.co.uk/2017/04/27/heres-how-spectacularly-wrong-the-brexit-bus-350million-lie-was-6600987/

        And of course the reduction in workers from the EU working in hospitals and elsewhere all due to Brexit. A policy now supported by the Brit nat Sarwar and his minions.

      • Scots know who’s fault the pressure on the NHS is, and that it’s not the Scottish government’s. Same for the developing strikes etc.

        Scots voters are perfectly aware England takes their taxes, subsidises its personal largesse, then gives Scotland back a little of its own cash as pocket money. They are also acutely aware which government is responsible for trashing the UK economy, including via brexit, so emptying the coffers, leaving little to pay for public services.

        The irony is that the more the UK government tries to take back control from Holyrood (the news strategy), the more voters will, rightly, blame them for problems. If they want Scots to blame Holyrood, then independence is required. The greater the independence, the more Scots will lay blame on Holyrood. The electorate does not button up the back.

  16. UndeadShaun says:

    Guardian have banned me for posting mone is corrupt.
    Easy to see where their alegiences lie.

    They have articles highlighting fraud, but still support the tories of all hues!

  17. Interesting. Coming from the English BBC – the propaganda arm of the English government and forced on Scots against their will – this is likely the ground being tested.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63909309

    As far as Scotland is concerned, this policy (the conditions for issuing of gender recognition certificates) is an entirely domestic debate and not a constitutional one, so has no relevance to independence. Likewise, a UK Labour government plans follow its Scottish counterpart and make the change in England if elected anyway, which is quite likely to happen relatively soon given the state of the Tories and rise of Reform (hitting 9% now).

    I personally have followed the policy development and debate with some interest, not least because it affects a family member, albeit she (by birth), my niece, lives in France. But then of course we’ll be seeing her in Edinburgh for Christmas.

    Except England would undoubtedly be making it about independence if it went down this route, just like southern English right-wing ‘war on woke’ blog sites have desperately attempted to. The latter has failed and so will the former.

    When you think of the consequences, you can see it’s a right wing attack as it’s not thought through at all. For example, I might ask, if Scottish certificates were not recognised in England due to ‘being issued by a different procedure’, what about those issued in a growing list of countries, including Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Denmark, Ecuador, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Portugal, Switzerland and Uruguay? If an Irish person from the north obtains a GRC by self-id while living in the republic, then moves back, is it recognised in the former? It should be under the GFA as Irish in the north are legally that if they want to be under the terms of the peace deal.

    And what next? Are Scottish marriage certificates not recognised in England, say if the couple are 16/17?

    This is a can of worms, and is clearly nothing to do with the issue in hand, but the right-wing British nationalists grabbing an anti-woke stick from Bath to beat the Scottish parliament with (the policy of course has the backing of all but the English Tories, so is not an SNP/Green one).

    Which is why I post the story. It’s not going to stop there. The new strategy is that England will overturn every policy in Scotland it can from London if it thinks it can get away with it, because the English media in Scotland have spent as much time as possible telling Scots it’s ‘controversial’ . ‘Scots don’t want an indyref’ becomes ‘Scots don’t want GRA reform’ becomes ‘Scots need an NHS with private options as the SNP are failing them’. All to overturn elections here and render Holyrood meaningless without actually closing it down. Ending devolution by stealth.

    Whatever your thoughts on the GRA topic, this story should scare you as it’s absolutely not about that, but the next assault on our democracy being prepared.

  18. I have to admit watching a bit of the Harry and Meghan whatsit on Netflix when it flashed up last night.

    I am not a royal watcher, and don’t really care about their family squabbles, but both of them come across as genuine enough, and they do absolutely seem to love each other. The contrast from ‘the Queen’s favourite’ Prince Andrew’s infamous interview was, shall we say, quite stark.

    You can see why this is ruffling some (looted from British controlled India) bejeweled gilded ermine feathers.

    If we must have a Queen of Scots and had to pick from the current crop, Meghan would be my choice.

  19. James Mills says:

    O/T
    Penny Mordaunt busy self-publicising her ”charity” credentials while simultaneously gaslighting her Portsmouth constituents .
    She is blatantly pushing her new book by pledging to use ”some” of her profits to help fund Food Pantries – aka Food Banks !

    A Government Minister , a senior Minister of a Party that has for 12 years increased the NEED for ”Food Pantries ” , is actually seeking praise from her constituents for being part of a Political Party which is increasingly turning the clock back in the UK to create another Victorian era where the POOR rely on Charity from such as Penny Mordaunt for the basics of life .

    Expect the BBC and the other Tory media to run with this new nomenclature –
    Food Pantries – sounds so much nicer than Food Bank and allows them to feel better about forcing people into poverty .

    Watch out for :
    Public Heating Stations ( aka Warm Banks ) for the many who cannot heat their homes ;
    Budget Alfresco Dining Centres ( aka Soup Kitchens ) .

    • JoMax says:

      Bijou residences with onsite support and training facilities – Poorhouses.

    • Alex Clark says:

      Fecking “Food Pantries” where the poorest have to go for handouts to feed their starving children, the Tories are disgusting creatures and yet they think humiliating people by forcing them to turn to charity is a good thing.

      Every food bank in an Independent Scotland will be closed and people will be treated with a lot more respect. We can be certain of that.

      • davetewart says:

        Did I pick up correctly the mordaunt presentation that you have to pay £20 subscription to join the pantry?

        Pay £20 and save Up To £800 a year on going out of date food and discards from supermarkets.

        No mention of her getting the cash up front for writing the book just the share of the sales.

        It’s the bits they don’t mention that are the important bits.

    • Brown and Blair started it with the unemployed rebranded ‘jobseekers’.
      At the time during the Golden Years of Blair and Brown’s new conservatives, The birth of the Red Tories, some wit suggested that those on hospital waiting lists whould be rebranded ‘bedseekers’, and families on housing waiting lists. ‘houseseekers’, and the less well off’, the poor and destitute in Blair’s Brave New world, ‘moneyseekers’.
      Brown bankrolled the slaughter of 100’s of thousands of innocent Iraqi men women and children to the tune of £100 billion, and then privatised the construction of new hospitals schools and prisons, handing out PFI contracts to his pals in the City, contracts which tied us to 25/30 year contracts, financial never never land, where we are paying 30-40 times the price for public buildings to offshore accounts.
      Yet he boasts to this day that his Party built schools hospitals and new prisons…
      No they didn’t. Our children are still paying New Labour’s Credit Card debt.
      To this day, we are still paying 100’s millions of our money each year to moneymen, because of Brown’s ‘light touch, stewardship over our money.
      Hence those of us needing medical services are now coldly classed as ‘end-users’, not patients.
      I cannot tolerate having anything to do with England and its steady decline into anarchy a moment longer.

  20. Capella says:

    Going to be a new front bench soon.

    SNP MP Chris Law quits Stephen Flynn’s Westminster frontbench

    Chris Law resigned his position as the SNP’s spokesperson for international development and climate justice late on Thursday night.

    In a letter to Flynn, the MP for Dundee West outlined his achievements in the role before saying the new group leader – elected on Tuesday to replace Ian Blackford – had his “full support”.

    https://archive.vn/HO0sW

    • As others have said, it is entirely appropriate for people to step down and let the new leaders pick their team. I also think it entirely appropriate that the Westminster group decide their own leadership / strategies. If they felt a change was needed, then it was needed, simple as that. What’s going in shows how democratic / non-centrally controlled the party is, just as MSPs are being allowed an essentially free vote on the GRA reforms bill does.

      Of course if there was no change, the BBC etc would be like ‘SNP ruthlessly controlled by Sturgeon with no dissent allowed!’. If there is change, it’s ‘SNP hopelessly divided into pro- and anti-Sturgeon camps!’.

      Also as others have said, the change is all a relatively minor matter that the public will just not care about. Scots have very little interest in the cesspit that is England’s ‘pretendy parliament’*, and don’t want it ruling their country any more. It’s not like they all turn on the telly to watch PMQ’s religiously or something. They are also acutely aware that they, as a people, are not permitted any say in the running of the UK, and if they elect a Scottish MP [from a Scottish political party rather than an English/British one], the latter will not be allowed anywhere near power due to their nationality / ethnicity. Which is, of course, just another reason why Scots now want independence.


      *It is Westminster that is a pretendy parliament as it is half unelected and the half that is elected is not by PR, so doesn’t represent voters. It not a democratic parliament, but simply a pretense at one.

  21. Capella says:

    Richard Walker on how far the independence has come since 2014.

    Difficulties remain but the independence movement is heating up

    AFTER months where it seemed that Scotland would forever be evenly split on the subject of independence, the final days of 2022, at last, saw the tide begin to turn seriously in favour of Yes.

    This week saw a poll indicate a 56% majority in support of independence, surely driven at least in part by the Supreme Court’s assertion that we do not even have the right to ask the question.

    It is certainly true that we do not like being told what we can and cannot do. It comes as no surprise that there has been a strong reaction against the arrogance of a Westminster parliament wagging a stern finger warning us that democracy does not extend north of the Border.

    https://archive.vn/2dglJ

  22. Capella says:

    Tory greed is a bottomless pit.

    UK banking rules in biggest shake-up in more than 30 years

    The government has announced what it describes as one of the biggest overhauls of financial regulation for more than three decades.

    It says the package of more than 30 reforms will “cut red tape” and “turbocharge growth”.

    Rules that forced banks to legally separate retail banking from riskier investment operations will be reviewed.

    Those were introduced after the 2008 financial crisis when some banks faced collapse.

    The package of changes, the “Edinburgh Reforms” is being presented as an example of post-Brexit freedom to tailor regulation specifically to the needs and strengths of the UK economy.

    However, critics say it risks forgetting the lessons of the financial crisis.

    Between 2007 and 2009 the then-Labour government spent £137bn of public money to bail out banks.

    Overall, taxpayers have lost £36.4bn on those bailouts, according to the latest estimate from independent forecaster the Office for Budget Responsibility.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63905505

    • Capella says:

      Archive copy of the EDINBURGH REFORMS 😡
      https://archive.vn/VkEOb

    • Thatcherism is back!
      Lots of red braces Ferraris and Bollinger all round!
      As I observe earlier, I can no longer tolerate being hand cuffed to england as it sinks in to isolation corruption, and depravity.
      ‘Ther Markets’ will love the ‘Carpetbaggers’ Reforms’.
      My money is not safe in any bank now.
      Fred the Shred will be invited back.
      Ian Murray will buy RFC back for £1.00.
      EBT wages?
      Sub prime mortgages?
      Here we go again.

      Until we get out of their Union, hide what little cash you still have under the mattress.
      Withdraw you wages /pensions/ salary in cash every month.
      Northern Rock II on the horizon.

      • davetewart says:

        Did you pick up on the Minister’s reply to an SNP assertion in westmonster?
        Seems he was misleading the house with a quote that we are paying a storage company in China £700,000 a Day to store PPE.

        The actual cost is £400,000 a DAY, well that’s a big saving.
        Sold as being a great deal.

        • Just looked it up, Dave.
          There are apparently 56 countries without extradition treaties with the UK.
          Handy to know as you sit on the runway in your shiny new £10 million private jet.
          How many hospital beds would £65 million buy?
          And Jeremy Rhyming Slang is about to open the floodgates.
          England is finished.

      • Legerwood says:

        Fred the Shred and Gordon Brown’s light touch regulation. Not everything is down to Mrs Thatcher whose position on regulation was more mixed than the clear cut black and white that some ascribe to her.

        • Aye, richt, Legerwood.
          Private good, public bad, was one of Maggie’s gems.
          There is no such thing as society, only the individual, another.
          She balked at selling off the Postal service, because the queen’s head was on the stamps.
          Every other publicly owned asset was sold to the Money Men in the banks.
          Oil, gas, telephones, steel, you name it…
          There was nothing ‘mixed’ about Thatcher’s economic model.
          She destroyed civic society.

          • grizebard says:

            Thatcher also didn’t privatise British Rail. That was Major, playing trainsets.

            • Got me…
              From Thatcher onwards England has had far right totalitarian governments…You may recall Brown posing on the doorstep with the heartless woman, having afternoon tea with her when he was briefly the kid on PM.

              I sense that you and Legerwood are nit picking, in some vainglorious attempt to justify selling off the essentials for life on this planet as ‘commodities’ to be sold on the laissez faire market..like ehat in the winter, water, basic food stuffs and a roof over our heads.
              Britain is finished…and thousands will die of poverty and government engineered neglect, because of Thatcher and he evil spawn.
              Food ‘pantries’..how quaint and WRVS speak.
              I am a 75 year old veteran of the slow destruction of my country by Thatcher right through to Ian Murray..all Unionist Jocks have become very wealthy indeed in suppressing their homeland and keeping millions poor, deprived and helpless.
              Well, not any fucking more.
              Jesus is not the only one who can yield a knoted rope to the retreating backs of the money changers ripping their fellow citizens off.
              WE are beyond polite when it comes to the FJacks Sarwar and Ross’s of this evil world.
              They are evil.
              Rajnt over.

              • Check the typos..
                It is to fall to _5 degrees tonight where we are….
                Someone will probably die…
                May they all rot in their belief system’s version of Everlasting damnation.
                These people are the devil’s spawn.

                • “…and when he had made a scourge of small cords, he drove them all out of the temple, and the sheep, and the oxen; and poured out the changers’ money, and overthrew the tables; And said unto them that sold doves, Take these things hence; make not my Father’s house an house of merchandise.”
                  Jesus described them as a ‘den of thieves’. How apt, how Tory Britland

                  — John 2:15–16

              • Legerwood says:

                Jack Collatin,
                You wrote: “”I sense that you and Legerwood are nit picking, in some vainglorious attempt to justify selling off the essentials”””

                No I am not not picking but rightly pointing out that Labour were every bit involved in the decline. Labour hides behind Mrs Thatchers skirts by blaming her for the demise of British industry when in fact they were every bit as culpable and probably more so because they had two periods in power – one in the ’60s and again in the ’70s – when they had a chance to stop the decline which started long before Mrs Thatcher came on the scene.

                Take shipbuilding in Scotland. It actually started to decline in the 1900s but 2 World Wars and the depression hid that. Immediately after WWII when there was a boom in shipbuilding 18% of the World’s shipping was built in Scotland but byb1958 it was down to 4.5% and some German yards could build ships in half the time of Scottish yards.

                Here are the details of shipyard closures on the Clyde from start of 20th C onwards. Note the closures in 1960s when Labour were in power
                http://www.inverclydeshipbuilding.co.uk/home/general-history/closure-dates-of-clyde-yards

                When Labour Gov nationalised the shipyards in 1977, I think it was, there were only 6 yards in Scotland – 4 on the Clyde, 1 in Aberdeen and 1 in Dundee.

                Ah but, but Mrs Thatcher…

                Mining shows the same pattern. Atlee nationalised the mines in the late 1940s. There were 225 mines across the Central Belt of Scotland at that time. By the time Mrs Thatcher came to power in 1979 there were barely 20 left of about 15 of which were closed during the ’80s and the rest during Tony Blair’s time in office.

                But, but Mrs Thatcher…

                Blaming her for it all lets an awful lot of people off the hook when it comes to the demise of British/Scottish industry not just Labour.

                Labour in Scotland however have pushed the ‘Mrs Thatcher did it’s almost to the exclusion of all else and I would argue it hollowed out the party. When they came to power in Holyrood and had to put their foot on the pedal and come up with policies there was nothing in the tank. ‘Gies yer vote we’re no Mrs Thatcher’ no longer worked as a vote winner.

                • Golfnut says:

                  Not a lot of people are aware that South Korea bought a lot of the equipment and expertise when yards closed down on the Clyde, look at them now.

                • Keys! Legerwood. I give in.
                  Taking pride of place on my dining room wall is a photo of the 30 gaffers, with the QE 2 still on the blocks behind them, the night before the launch.
                  My Dad was the copper man.
                  He spent his entire life on the Clyde, as did many of our relatives and neighbours.
                  You’re pushing at an open door when you describe the ineptitude of Labour especially post WWII.
                  The Oligarchy, the Men Who Really Run The World closed down our industries, and deliberately did not invest in modernising plant and modern ship building techniques.
                  I have red lead running through my veins. The Clyde fed us, educated us, and can do for this and future generations.
                  Thatcher just tied it all up in a neat bow. Destroy the Welfare State, Trades Unions, and privatise everything .
                  Major Blair Brown Cameron Clegg May Johnson Truss and now Sunak are carrying on where she left off. The rich get richer, the poor starve and die prematurely.
                  What is different now is that we have the power to fight back, and by Christos we are.
                  Thatcher was the anti Christ.

                  • Legerwood says:

                    I don’t think she was the anti-christ just one in a long line before and since who did not really get to grips with what was happening. By the time she came along it was way too late for the iconic industries which by then had all but disappeared.

                    Building ships was hot just about steel and rivets but meant that there were a great many allied trades that contributed hugely to so many areas of life in Scotland and Glasgow in particular. One small but telling example.

                    A few years ago I went to an exhibition to mark Charles Rennie McIntosh’s life. It covered not only his work but a lot of what was happening in Glasgow in the arts & crafts area. When you looked at what was being produced – furniture, metalwork, fabric, carpets etc – you realised that much if not all of that was possible at that time because of the trades associated with fitting out ships especially the liners. Without the shipbuilding they would not have existed.

                    The QE2 is a case in point. When it came time for its first refit/refurbishment it went to a German yard if I remember correctly. Probably because the craft trades no longer existed to the extent required to ‘redo’ the QE2 because shipbuilding had declined almost to vanishing point.

              • grizebard says:

                Well, in a way I am nit-picking. But to continue… {grin} … it was “Mr. PFI” “Co-op” Broon who wrecked many mutuals and raided the pension funds, so most people working now will be worse off when they eventually retire. Arguably his contribution was just as bad, even though it was delivered with a sanctimonious Scottish accent.

                We do seem to agree in general though. The point I was also trying to make was that it wasn’t all down to Thatcher, even though she quickly came to achieve a particularly negative resonance here in Scotland, it is instead a systemic problem of London mismanagement across the board. Post-Maggie through a fatuous cross-spectrum belief in “targets” and “markets” that just doesn’t work in the public sector, and which has given us capitalism for the ordinary person and socialism for the privileged.

            • Aye, they really did everything they possibly could to take the British out of Scotland. Then they’re puzzled as to why younger Scots are not British.

              Well, erm, maybe if they took British Rail to go up town, dad worked for British Coal, mum for British Telecom, who supplied everyone’s phone, while they drove a British Leyland mark of car made of British steel…

              Things might be a bit different. But the Tories shut down or privatised Britishness in Scotland. All that’s left is the BBC and a tattered imperial flag.

              The 16-34 group are 7/10 Yes for a reason. Most of them will have little to no memory of Britishness and what it used to mean in Scotland.

        • Bob Lamont says:

          Correct.

      • gerry parker says:

        Buy gold coins with your cash.

    • Golfnut says:

      Why on earth are they calling this the Edinburgh Reforms?

    • Bob Lamont says:

      Aye, the Tories extremists are going for bust this time – Thatcher may have buggered industry in her obsession with neutering the unions, but this is a whole different bunch of lunatics in power – Sunak was a hedge fund manager which is how he became so Richi, but he knows his days are numbered so quelle surprise he goes for bust with somebody else’s money..

      I’d opined previously Truss and Kwarteng in particular knew damned well how “the market” would respond with their “incident”, and I’ve no doubt whatever of collusion with the incoming administration despite the theatrics of the “Tory leadership contest”…

      The rich are flexing their muscles knowing the populace will have to pick up the tab, hence HMG will delay a GE to the max in order to maximise profit taking.

  23. Welsh_Siôn says:

    For those of you following the Mone Saga:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/dec/09/revealed-the-full-inside-story-of-the-michelle-mone-ppe-scandal

    Revealed: the full inside story of the Michelle Mone PPE scandal

    • Tam the Bam says:

      Good to see you’re keeping ‘ abreast’ of events.

      • Welsh_Siôn says:

        Mone and her husband – a pair of prize tits who don’t have my support.

        A.N.Other-Bra

    • Hamish100 says:

      Yeh the same Mone who told the waiting world that she would leave Scotland if it voted Yes in 2014 and then left anyway. Once labour now Tory and joins the patriotic Brits. Morals are lost with this shower.

  24. Stop laughing at the back!

    https://archive.vn/8HJsl

    Unionist meltdown after poll shows independence support at 56 per cent

    …Perhaps against his better judgment, Ben Page, the firm’s global chief executive, did reply.

    “Hold my whisky while I investigate. We could be utterly wrong although have a good track record in Scotland. Will reflect,” he wrote.

  25. yesindyref2 says:

    I have to ask, WTF does the National think it’s playing at with this continued and repetitive Unionist garbage?

    However, the new leadership of the SNP’s Westminster group has faced a rocky start, with three MPs resigning from the party’s frontbench in a single day.

    when the article is about Philippa Whitford’s PMQ and Mhairi Black.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23181059.rishi-sunak-asked-legal-route-indyref2-snp-mp-mhairi-black/

  26. Capella says:

    Business for Scotland is on the case (the Edinburgh Reforms case).

    UK gov’s “pointless and dangerous” financial deregulation zero to do with Scotland

    The UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is announcing some high risk deregulation of the banking and finance sector. Once called “Big Bang 2.0” he is attempting to rebrand it “the Edinburgh reforms” by dint of traveling north of the border to make the announcement.

    These desperate measures are a response to the City of London’s post-Brexit weakness and have nothing to do with Edinburgh or Scotland – there has been no discussion about them with the Scottish government.

    https://www.businessforscotland.com/uk-govs-pointless-and-dangerous-financial-deregulation-zero-to-do-with-scotland/

    • Bob Lamont says:

      And this is “Greater England”‘s problem in a a nutshell, or a Grant Shapps as it has come to be known in common parlance….
      The City of London Corporation are feeling the pinch yet again, and the price of shrimp has gone up – Varieties such as Sunak, Hunt etc are reaching such premium prices that another Baroness is looking to cash in on the game after PPE before the game closes.

      • Capella says:

        I can recommend The Spider’s Web on Netflix for a forensic dissection of the hidden world of the City of London and its offshore treasure islands. London has a lot to answer for.

  27. Alex Clark says:

    Here’s Philip Sim the BBC’s political correspondent having another go bigging up the SNP “civil war” after his headline a couple of days ago :

    Is Nicola Sturgeon losing her grip on the SNP?

    Now his latest is:

    SNP Westminster leader denies plotting to oust predecessor

    Not content with that he then states a personal opinion that Stephen Flynn might be a liar and that his version of events is dubious to say the least.

    At this point his insistence that nothing untoward has gone on and that everyone remains on the very best of terms has a hint of unreality about it.

    https://archive.vn/E2DPl

    This is not “reporting the news” this is attacking the leader os the SNP in Westminster. This is totally unacceptable and he should be pulled up for this, something I hope the SNP will do. The BBC are toxic and will say anything to defend the Union. That includes lying so do not trust a word uttered by a BBC journalist when it comes to Scottish politics.

    Their bias is too far gone for that.

    • Welsh_Siôn says:

      This may explain why the 56% poll was not reported on BBC Scotland.

      A tweet by Philip Sim from yesterday:

      Philip Sim
      @BBCPhilipSim
      Dec 08, 2022
      @EdXTaylor @BBCJamesCook @GlennBBC @BBCScotlandNews Yeah you basically have it, in general we tend to cover broad trends rather than individual polls. There’s a whole section about it in the editorial guidelines here – see 10.3.30 about voting intention polls in particular https://www.bbc.com/editorialguidelines/guidelines/politics/guidelines/

      Source: https://muckrack.com/philip-sim

      • grizebard says:

        Indeed, but it’s funny – not humourous – how those guidelines seem at times to be conveniently overlooked when some individual poll reports a drop in indy support, though they are always studiously honoured if it’s the other way round.

    • Capella says:

      Not just the BBC. Here Eddie Dempsey of the RMT tells Kay Burley the media ignore facts and spout employer and government talking points. Young Eddie knows how to put shills in their place, politely but firmly.

  28. Hamish100 says:

    That is always their line. A one off poll not reported.
    Of course every poll is one off at the time of issuing.
    SNP should call this bunch of cheats out at every interview on radio or TV. They have a mandate from the people.

  29. Alex Clark says:

    Quite.

    • deelsdugs says:

      They, as in them, have no idea how the Scottish mind, subterfuge, and let’s try a different take here approach work. Whole different tactics, and they, as in them, are flailing around with their gutter press in print, flooding the airwaves and in yer face tv (if you read, listen and watch it – personally, I take it with a touch of eyebrow raising laughter and shut the feckers off) in the hope of brainwashing those who are easily brainwashed…and they’ll be the ones who are just ‘in it, for their pension’

  30. Hamish100 says:

    And the tories have had Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak all the chancellors, ministers etc in and out, labour in Scotland -how many so called leaders? Sarwar, that gmb guy, the ex councillor…. I give up…
    This is easier https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Scottish_Labour_Party

  31. davetewart says:

    I seem to be having difficulty finding the report on the disruption in the elglish tory party.
    All the ministers in the truss government that were dumped by the rich synic.
    The laugh that duguid was replaced by the ex rn midshipman.

  32. yesindyref2 says:

    Mmm, looks like I’m now blocked from peterabell dot scot for pointing out in detail how his use of statistics is grossly incorrect. How sad, oh well, never mind. It might just be a technical problem of course …

    • yesindyref2 says:

      MBP’s doing a great job there, better than me 😦

      Says he with false genuine modesty.

      But I suspect he’ll be blocked soon even though mostly well-resepcted there.

  33. yesindyref2 says:

    Onywise, been watching this, and it’s at 97% now.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23182046.believe-scotland-yes-fundraiser-set-reach-100k-target/

    Haven’t contributed I’m brassic, but it is important it gets there or the Unionists will be sneering, so it’s nearly safe now.

  34. Bob Lamont says:

    OT – Well worth a read –
    With the MONTHLY stats for A&E etc stats now published for England, an ideal time to compare reporting with the BBC in Scotland on the SG’s publication of WEEKLY stats https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2022/12/09/bbc-wales-editors-choose-to-have-zero-politicisation-of-waiting-times/

  35. Ken says:

    Independence supporters need to go out and vote. More need to go out and vote SNP/SNP. They need to vote at every election. Too low turnout. Council/Local elections, Holyrood, GE. They need to come out and vote SNP/SNP at every election. A higher turnout.

    Either use it or lose it. Scotland will get Independence when Scotland votes for it. Not sit on their hands complaining.get out and vote. Take someone else as well. The turnout is too low. 40%/50/60%. Ref 85%.

    Independence simple going out and voting. Wiping out the opposition. The unionist deniers.

  36. Ken says:

    MSM owned by tax evading non Dom’s. Illegally. They want to make more money.by lies and cheating. Breaking the Law.

    The UK Gov is supposed to support a free and fair Press. They do not. They manipulate it and give false account. The internet information can be shared to hold them to account. The Tories will be gone within a year. A last ditch attempt to falsify accounts and siphon off public monies.

    The MSM is making £Billion in false reporting and advertising. Breaking the Law with impunity. Murdoch should be in jail. Breaking International and Business Law. Along with the rest of them. Total crooks breaking the Law with impunity, at every available opportunity.

  37. New poll from Findoutnow.

    54% Yes / 46% No.

    In the National. Will have a looksee later.

    https://archive.vn/Tdu94

  38. Capella says:

    That Find Out Now poll in The National

    Third Scottish independence poll shows ‘clear shift’ towards Yes

    SCOTTISH independence leads support for the Union by eight points in the third poll to gauge Scots’ opinions since the Supreme Court’s indyref2 ruling, The National can reveal.

    The third in the series of Yes leads underlines a “clear shift” in attitudes among Scots voters, pollster Mark McGeoghegan said.

    It comes after the UK’s highest court ruled on November 23 that Scotland could not hold a second independence referendum without Westminster’s permission.

    https://archive.vn/ESvvU

    • Hamish100 says:

      Great. That means using their rules the bbc will report on it as it one of a collection of polls showing a shift in voting pattern towards independence. Nope, 2 stories about ferries, the weather, Rangers ….
      Funny that.

      • Capella says:

        Don’t be silly. Rules are made by the BBC for the BBC. Their latest ferry fiasco story advertises a polemical broadsheet funded by Jim McColl and distributed around the west coast to enlighten the natives of the ‘truth’ (their quotation marks).
        The last sentence in the article reads:
        Jim McColl was once a member of the first minister’s council of economic advisers but has become one of her staunchest critics.

        Which tells why the BBC is telling us about the ‘truth’ telling broadsheet.

        https://archive.vn/zPrJa

        It’s their MO. Identify the leader of the SNP as the personification of the independence movement. Proceed to vilify said figure in order to vilify independence.

  39. Capella says:

    Excellent article from Mike Russell pointing out the farce of Westminster’s “Crown in Parliament” scam.

    We must challenge Westminster sovereignty when we have to suffer it

    Westminster sovereignty asserts that no power is or can be greater than that exercised by Parliament via the government of the day and this power cannot be bound, even by predecessor governments.

    Devolution was a delicate dance around that flawed doctrine. It was devised in what now seems another political age in which ambiguity and compromise allowed the transfer of powers – albeit on Westminster terms – to other institutions, which included not just the devolved parliaments, but also those of the European Union.

    Westminster sovereignty was not altered by such things, but those who devised them hoped that no one would really notice. If the Scots or Welsh pushed the matter too far, then the law could be used to put them back in their box. Because Westminster sovereignty meant that it would always be the judge and jury, using legislation it itself had devised.

    https://archive.vn/vHY4J

  40. Well, my yearly average of polls will now give 50.9% (pending any further polls) in a year that was generally leaning a smidgen to No, albeit statistically a dead heat. Was 50.2% for 2021 which was down from the 53.4% wave peak of 2020. We are within a few weeks now of three years in a row now that Yes is >50% on average, and the baseline ‘settled will’ keeps creeping up.

    For fun, I fitted a 4th order poly to this year’s data. Or rather, because of the sudden sharp change at the UKSC case, it gives an R2 much closer to 1. 🙂 It’s looking very like a sharp change and not a fluke. Three different pollsters finding the same thing by very different methods points heavily towards Yes having had shot in the arm.

    Thank you so much Sunak et al. and the UKSC judges. Genuinely. From the bottom of my heart. It looks like you’ve made the flirtations of 2020 the settled will of those tempted, but who were still wavering.

    Who could have possibly predicted what the impact of this ruling would have on Yes support! 😉

    The British Nationalist chumps really walked right into this. SNP & Greens knew exactly what the result would be in terms of ruling and effects on voters. Would not stop our independence – which is a political / democratic matter – but let Scots see that the Yes parties were right all along about the union, and Scotland being an English colony.

    • Oh, and your occasional reminder that anyone trying to tell you ‘The polls have not changed in years / since Sturgeon took over!’ is either clueless, or, more likely, no genuine supporter of independence.

      • yesindyref2 says:

        If you go into a greengrocers (if there’s any left!), and count the fruit you might find 3 apples, 6 oranges and 16 bananas. Which means that 64% of greengrocers think that Sturgeon is a banana.

  41. Seems Yes was >50% before DKs were excluded, as Ispos also found.

  42. UndeadShaun says:

    Off topic, but thought this link might be useful for info on Scotlands energy production/exports as details real time energy production by source in Scotland or north/south scotland.

    https://electricityproduction.uk/in/scotland/

    This one shows real time interconector link transfer

    https://extranet.nationalgrid.com/RealTime

    And this is historic data on transfers between scotland/england and scotland/NI in a spreadsheet

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/statistics/2018/10/quarterly-energy-statistics-bulletins/documents/energy-statistics-summary—march-2021/energy-statistics-summary—march-2021/govscot:document/Scotland%2BEnergy%2BStatistics%2BQ4%2B2020.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwi9tN-ni8b1AhUIiFwKHW5EDQ4QFnoECA4QAQ&usg=AOvVaw3X4zn55J8bk0rWWneIRlr_

  43. davetewart says:

    Use the listings with a bit of care.

    The powerstation listings include stations that are no longer active.

    Their total installed capacity is stated as 90GW but the max level on the site is 50GW.

  44. UndeadShaun says:

    Which link are you referring to as i put correct link for transfer data in second post?

    That one has quarterly and historic data by year.

    The pdf link was a mistake, which i corrected below.

  45. davetewart says:

    No complaints about the live data.

    I opened your link and looked at the listings of power stations to find that Hunterston B was listed as installed, it can’t run as the grid switchgear, CF6, has been removed, the station’s license to operate has also been removed. The plant is still to be de-fuelled.
    Also as stated, Cruachan pumped storage is listed twice in the station listing.

    I use the national grid status site which doesn’t show Scotland’s generation only the grid total, so thanks for the headsup.

  46. davetewart says:

    Have a look at the PLANTS dropdown menu.

    Eggborough Coal power station is still on the list.
    It had it’s turbine hall demolished in June this year.

    • UndeadShaun says:

      I dont bother with plants menu or any other menus, thats not real time & probably not been updated.

      The link i gave was for real time generation value and emergy mix in Scotland, which is accurate.

      Majority of sites which give real time do not list Scotlands production seperately.

      Found that site useful as lists not just Scotland, north/south Scotland too.

      And other links have spreadsheet on quarterly energy transfers and real time interconnector transfer.

      • davetewart says:

        This afternoon the transmission to englandland was just short of 2GW and 7 GW imported from Europe.

        You might be interested that Scottish Power have plans to install another DC cable system of 2GW from Beauly to South Yorkshire, similar to the Hunterston to Angelsey one already in service.

  47. Capella says:

    Believe in Scotland has a new Facebook video ad. I don’t do Facebook but for those that do, this is the way to bypass the MSM “narrative”.

    Broken Britain or an Independent Scotland

  48. Capella says:

    Stephen Flynn and the new SNP front bench from the BBC:

    The SNP front bench positions in full:
    Stephen Flynn – SNP Westminster leader
    Mhairi Black – SNP depute Westminster leader
    Martin Docherty-Hughes – chief whip
    Alison Thewliss – home affairs
    Stuart McDonald – justice and immigration
    Dr Philippa Whitford MP – Scotland spokesperson
    Alyn Smith – Europe and EU accession
    Drew Hendry – foreign affairs
    Patrician Gibson – farming, agriculture, rural affairs
    Kirsten Oswald – women and equalities
    Richard Thomson – International Trade, Northern Ireland and Wales
    Alan Brown – energy and industrial strategy
    Dave Doogan – defence
    Deirdre Brock – House of Commons business
    Chris Stephens – levelling up
    Kirsty Blackman – Cabinet Office
    Gavin Newlands – transport
    Martyn Day – health
    Brendan O’Hara – international development
    Carol Monaghan – education

    https://archive.vn/njdwD

  49. Capella says:

    My twitter feed tells me that it’s the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Old Byland and that this battle was more important for Scottish Independence than Bannockburn. Most of us have never heard of it.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Old_Byland

    • Thanks for that. I read all about the whole history of the fight for indy in my younger days, but the dates of everything fade. Bannockburn was of course the major turning point, not the end of the struggle.

      ‘One of the greatest knights in Christendom’ was some boy. Respect.

  50. Luigi says:

    Who are y’all supporting tonight? I suppose it depends if yer a unionist or an auld alliancist.

    • davetewart says:

      Allez les Blues, for me after hearing that englandland will be playing Morocco to go through to the finals.

    • Given my good wife is French, it’s only natural that I back les Blues, or I’d be sleeping on the couch!

    • Will be watching French coverage incidentally, as there’s no coverage from my own country, because we are an English colony.

      • Capella says:

        France off to a good start. Les Rosbifs will be annoyed. 🙂

        https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/football/61047822

        • Vive la France! Vive la Auld Alliance!

          • Capella says:

            Ha ha ha – the best result I think. Mind you, I do like Gareth Southgate. He’s the archetypal dapper Englishman. But the commentary over on the BBC live feed was a wonder to behold. Congrats to Madame Skier. 🙂

            • Aye, as dakk says below, England played really well. While France are overall the better team, last night England absolutely matched them and more. They were unlucky at the result.

              I’m actually not bothered how England do these days because I don’t have to watch English TV or listen to English radio anymore. It’s not like back in the day when I had to give up on Radio 1 for music because they played ‘Football’s coming home’ for the umpteenth time. I can just listen to amazon music etc or a multitude of online radio stations. Same for the telly. I watched the game on TF1 last night. It’s been years since I watched ‘British TV’. A world away from when there were just 4 terrestrial channels or so.

              While I actually quite like Gary Linekar, the coverage is English and not even ‘British’. Watching the the French coverage actually makes me feel more at home. They are speaking the language used in my home. Would be the same if we had a Scots TV station with pundits saying ‘Aye, naw, gonnae’ etc.

              It’s ironic that Labour not devolving broadcasting that likely contributed to the ‘Anyone but England’ supporter groups in Scotland, Wales and NI. If we had a true SBC and other Scottish channels showing what Scots wanted to watch and not what England wants, Scots would not really care how England did because they’d never hear about it. With the advent of streaming TV and radio, this is now happening naturally, and recent polling showed only around 2/10 in Scotland / Wales actively want England not to do well.

              I was discussing this with an English neighbour who wondered why ABE? I said he should just reverse the situation. Imagine the UK was 80% Scottish… The telly totally Scotocentric… The Scottish footie team were much better than Englands… that when he turned on to watch the world cup, the pundits were all Scots talking about the Scottish premier league and the time Scotland won the world cup… That the radio was blasting out ‘Fitba’s comin hame, it’s comin hame’… And I believe the penny dropped. If you are English, the UK looks very different to you, and you don’t think about this.

          • Pogmothon says:

            Oh Mon Dieu, comme c’est triste, ca ne fait rien.
            la allianz D’ ancient.

      • Welsh_Siôn says:

        To mix sports –

        “They’re dancing in the streets of Pont-y-pŵl and Auchtermuchty, tonight!”

  51. yesindyref2 says:

    Dave Doogan new defence spokesperson.

    was Defence Procurement. “Defence Select Committee Member and Vice President of NATO PA Economics & Security Committee.

    was “Dave is an Aircraft Engineer who enjoyed a successful career within the Ministry of Defence.

    I will take forward this essential element of our Independence prospectus with the utmost energy and in so doing will build on the great strides made in this space by my friend and colleague @StewartMcDonald

    Indeed. I’ll be watching YOU …

  52. davetewart says:

    Seems something is coming home, Allez les Blues.

  53. dakk says:

    Nice to see the Auld Alliance is still a thing.

    Vive La France !!!

    England were the better team imo.

    That’s soccer for you 😁😁😁

  54. dakk says:

    The Brazilian referee had an excellent match this evening imo.

    I think he knew who Pele would want to win 😊

  55. dakk says:

    An insipient New Alliance must emerge from this.

    I think Lula is a good guy we could do business with.

  56. yesindyref2 says:

    The 10 things that change your life:

    Hexidecimal and binary.

  57. Hamish100 says:

    It will be I interesting how this mornings tv/radio will deal with this weeks pollingon independence. Whoever is on from SNP/ Green’S/ALBA should make reference to it and the imposed msm bbc censorship during the week.

    • Having made a donation to all Yes parties ahead of May 2021, I get occasional emails from all. This popped into my inbox the other day and I held my head in my hands. I mean jeez, that’s sounding very like sour grapes.

      We should absolutely celebrate recent poll results. They are giving the movement a real lift and suggest the SNP / Green UKSC strategy is paying dividends. Ok, this is probably why the Alba sour grapes…

  58. W_S will be pleased to know that google now feeds me news from nation.cymru

    This popped up this morning. 😉

    https://nation.cymru/sport/welsh-fans-troll-motorists-with-french-flag-en-route-to-away-game/

    Welsh fans troll motorists with French flag en route to away game

  59. UndeadShaun says:

    Thanks forvthati think there are also plans to increase with further undersea links.

    with expansion to 20GW of offshore renewables coming on stream in next decade, i think further increases in export capabilities will be planned.

    https://www.gov.scot/news/increased-offshore-wind-ambition-by-2030/

    There is also an expansion to cruachan being looked.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-60780848

    And 2 new pumped storage elsewhere in Scotland, which once all completed will give storage capacity for unused wind generation.

    • davetewart says:

      The Cruachan plan I don’t really understand, the new station will use the same upper dam as the existing station.
      No increase in storage so the fuel used up quicker.
      In the 70’s the plan was to use Loch Arklet/Katrine, controlled from the Sloy staion.

      • UndeadShaun says:

        Cruachan plan may be for when grid shortfalls in capacity, to save on using otherwise having to use gas?

        It would still give 12 hours generation, which if during day, then when demand decreases at night, reservoir could be replenished perhaps?

        Cloir Glas at invergarry will have up to 1.5 GW capacity.

        https://www.coireglas.com/

        And 450MW red john at inverness has been approved.

        https://www.redjohnpsh.co.uk/

        There may also be further future planned pumped storage schemes as they are a good backup for when there are grid shorfalls and also storage for unused wind generation.

        • davetewart says:

          The existing Cruachan station, now 440MW, up from 400MW, is virtually totally dependant on overnight pumped fuel, it used to be used for about 6 hours each day as generation.
          We now see that pumped storage output runs into the late evening and comes back on again early in the morning.
          Adding another 600 MW??? of generation will see a big transfer of fuel each 24 hours. From the same upper reservoir.
          It was paired to Hunterston but that has now gone, wonder if the pairing is now Torness.

          Today we are seeing low wind generation as well as low solar as we near the shortest days of the year.

          We really need more pumped storage fuel capacity to make use of the windy days.

          I’m reading your site report with interest, it seems we are sending 2GW to the southern colony and getting charged to access the grid.

          Strange that we get higher unit costs because we are so far from the centre of load, london.

          • UndeadShaun says:

            Agree we need more hydro/pumped storage capacity. And more tidal as that is always available every day.

            Yes the connection charges are wrong, especially given our renewables output.

            Come independence we will be self sufficient in gas and electricity.

            I see SSE proposed having lower unit prices for nuclear and renewables below the energy cap, not sure if offgen/uk gov took them up on it.

  60. Alex Clark says:

    The Unionist media are having a collective meltdown which probably has something to do with recent polling results. They are absolutely desperate to steer the conversation on to the SNP “civil war” and how Nicola Sturgeons days are numbered.

    Euan McColm is first out of the traps in the Scotsman with the headline:
    Why Stephen Flynn and SNP leadership coup could prove costly for Nicola Sturgeon.

    The departure from the Westminster front bench of Sturgeon loyalists such as Pete Wishart and Stewart McDonald suggests the risk of a more serious split in the SNP is very real indeed.

    The timing could hardly be worse. After the UK’s Supreme Court confirmed that the Scottish Government had no power to stage a vote on the constitution, Sturgeon declared that the next UK General Election would be a “de facto” referendum.

    It will be no such thing – Nicola Sturgeon cannot declare it so – but the result of the election will decide whether the SNP’s dream of Indyref2 lives or dies. Even If the SNP wins more than half of the popular vote, it won’t have the right to begin talks about breaking up the UK but such a result would make it very difficult for the UK Government to deny a second referendum.

    The SNP needs unity, right now. This being so, Stephen Flynn’s leadership coup looks like the sort of self-indulgence that ended up costing Labour dear.

    https://archive.vn/Y4WPD

    The whole article reads an awful lot like desperate wishful thinking.

    • Capella says:

      Ha ha ha – Polls? What polls?

      I noticed a few sour grapes “BLOW FOR STURGEON” headlines on some of the front pages today. Shame. 🙂

    • Bob Lamont says:

      They’ve at this since Blackford announced he was stepping down, first out of the blocks was HMS James Cook with the split/coup stuff so McColm must have been late getting the memo from Union central…

    • Iain Macwhirter’s true colours shining through here as he writes for the rabid English Tory Spectator.

      https://archive.vn/vllMv

      Is the SNP falling apart?

      With yes now in the lead, and likely the settled will, they are crapping bricks.

  61. Ironically, it’s the British papers in Scotland headlining England’s defeat, not the only Scottish [‘Anti-English’, ((c) British nationalism)] paper, the National.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-63933834

  62. Ken says:

    If people want Independence they most go out and vote for it every election. Vote for an Ibdependence supporting Party in greater numbers. A higher turnout. To get rid of the opposition. Use it or lose it. Vote SNP/SNP (Independence supporting party) in higher numbers higher turnout. Take another. Instead of complaining. Turnout 40%/50/60%. Referendum 85%.

    Criticising other zIndependence supporting Parties is not advantageous.

  63. Ken says:

    Sure the SNP will manage. Biggest Party in the UK pro rata. Supported by the members and a majority of others. Head and shoulders above the rest in policies and the will to carry them out. Support increasing,

    If people want Independence they have to go out to vote for it every election, including Council. People should get out and vote instead of sitting on their hands and moaning.

  64. Alex Clark says:

    The really desperate stuff though comes from ex-Labour MP for Glasgow South writing for his natural home the Torygraph.

    In a very long article, he has some cracking soundbites that had me laughing out loud. How about

    “Her worst fears were realised when the Supreme Court – Scotland’s highest court as well as the UK’s – ruled definitively that the Scottish parliament had no authority to legislate for another referendum without the authority of Westminster. “

    or

    It is often the case in politics that it is the regimes themselves that cannot accept their time is drawing to a close.
    In the dying days of Margaret Thatcher’s government, even as Cabinet ministers queued to tell her the game was up, the prime minister’s closest allies insisted her best days still lay ahead of her.

    or this

    It is true that poor outcomes in education and health policy have had no impact on the party’s electoral prospects. Even the astonishing political pantomime of the Scottish Government’s attempts to commission two new ferries for use by Scotland’s island communities – a farce that has seen costs rise by 350 per cent with no new vessels in sight – has persuaded few Scots to change their voting habits.

    Not content with linking Nicola Sturgeon to the reign of Thatcher or a dig about the ferries this article has everything.

    It starts out with the SNP “civil war” and then the comparison with the demise of Blair and Thatcher. Next up was her failure to win the Supreme Court case which is quickly followed by self-ID, ferries, Natalie McGarry, Margaret Ferrier, the long shadow over her cast by Alex Salmond, Kenny MacAskill and Neale Hanvey, Scotland’s failing economy and then finally finishing back where it started with the SNP “civil war”.

    https://archive.vn/Fx2jq

    I think recent polling results has broken their hearts resulting in them flailing around looking for any straw to grasp.

    • Capella says:

      Hahahahahahahahaha……and breathe.

      I couldn’t get past the headline:
      Nicola Sturgeon confronts the abyss as divided SNP tears itself apart

      That is definitely one for the archives.

    • Roz Foyer, ‘Scottish Trades Union’ head honcho was on Geissler this morning.
      We are to assume that 56% of her membership now support independence, but she uses her ‘power’ to peddle the same old same old Brit Unionist twaddle.
      THe Scottish Government has the powers NOW to mitigate the English crisis!!!!
      How very Better Together of her.

      The Scottish Government has the powers now!!!! to mitigate the financial crisis.

      Scrap the council tax system, tax the rich (those on £40k a year apparently) and introduce Land Reform. now!!!!.

      Where do these people come from?

      Earlier, when interviewing a pour soul from Inverness. a mother of a two income low pay family, and a spokesperson from Child Poverty with him in the studio, Geissler tugged at the heart strings…baked beans and toast..he’d heard of a family, a nurse and a teacher, who were on the brink of desperation, (Nurse, say, on a very conservative £20k, teacher on £40k) as an equivalence to the poor woman in Inverness, and they too were feeling the pinch, and it was all that SNP’s fault. They could do more if they persist on being identified as ‘centre left’, he mocked.

      Well, I’d venture that the nurse/teacher household have a mortgage, and have enjoyed an accustomed ‘squeezed middle’ living standard…

      But it’s the SNP who put their mortgage up, wasn’t it?

      Geissler ‘yes butted’ his way through an interview with Shona Robison, shouting down her calm listing of the mitigations and help which our Government (not Roz Foyer’s English Government) has introduced to help and support families like the one in Inverness.
      But Geissler was having none of it. He shouted over the SNP good bits. That’s waht he’s paid for. Heckle for England.

      So, Roz Foyer wants the SNP to tax the rich folk with incomes over £40 k, and Geissler nods in agreement, while he, in the same breath cites a family income of £60 k as Food Bank border level ‘heat or eat’ deprivation.

      What a tortured perverted web of deceit Geissler and his production team tried to spin today.

      It’s all the SNP’s fault, and they have the powers to sort it all out.

      Scrap the Council Tax scheme tomorrow, introduce a wealth tax, and instant Land Reform, and we can all turn the heating on again tonight, and pop out to Morrison’s and buy steaks and Prosecco to wash down this sumptuous feast.

      The UK government, represented by Alister Jack, Douglas Ross, Ian Murray and Alistair Carmichael in their northern colony will kill tens of thousands of your fellow Scots this winter, Martin.

      Yet again of course, none of them are available to come on to your wee Sunday show to explain themselves.

      BBC Jockland has a job to do. Destroy the SNP and return Scotland to England’s Brexit control, no matter how many of our citizens die of poverty, starvation, cold, or despair.

      A Teacher and Nurse household are going to foodbanks are, they Martin?
      Balderdash.

      A bit of advice, Roz Foyer; represent your members, who are in the majority wanting to be free of England’s control, politically, and the English TU Movement, not your dying Momentum Wing of the Red Tories.
      Svrap the Council Tax, Tax the rich workers on £40 k pa., and introduce Land Reforms tomorrow!!
      Ah, the Common Weal..

      Geissler, whit ur you like?

      • Alex Clark says:

        Good stuff Jack, they make themselves look ridiculous with their contortions of the narrative. I’ll just keep laughing at them, they’re losing the battle and they know it.

        • Geissler is so out of touch with the reality of this Inverness woman’s life, that when she mentioned that it was costing her £300 a month in petrol to get to her work, he had his Norman Tebbit ‘get on your bike’ moment, by suggesting that she should move to Inverness ‘city’ and save all that travelling.
          What a cold hearted idiotic response from a man who is a comfortably off member of the Scotia Nostra. Take your kids out of school, away from the child minding support of their extended family, give up their council house, and shell out thousands of pounds in removal and resettlement in more expensive private rented accommodation, buy new school uniforms, and force their partner to give up their job, and seek work in Inverness, just to battle the mess that a Hopeless English Government has concocted to keep the rich rich, while the poor pay for it?
          It was clear that the woman was humiliated by the whole interview…just so that Geisslre and Roz Foyer could pursue their SNP Bad agenda.
          I look forward to the day when our screens, radio, and newsprint will contain no news from London.
          The end is at hand for the Scotia Brits.

    • Wee Walker. says:

      This former Labour MP now supports the Tories (and of course he supported BrexiT)

  65. Welsh_Siôn says:

    Before the right wing English newspapers talk about an ‘SNP Civil war’ when there isn’t one, they should be looking closer to home. (But I’m not holding my breath.)

    https://uk.yahoo.com/news/priti-patel-fronts-democratic-tory-105326774.html

    Priti Patel fronts ‘democratic’ Tory campaign against Rishi Sunak’s coronation

    A NEW grassroots Conservative campaign backed by a billionaire donor has been launched in a bid to “empower party members” and “restore democracy” following the coronation of Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister.

    […]

  66. Alex Clark says:

    There’s a bit of a similar theme I’ve noticed running through all these civil war articles and it’s nothing even to do with that but the 3 stories I’ve read today now including the one by Macwhirter in the Spectator are all saying the same thing somewhere in their piece.

    It’s that the SNP will not be able to hold a de-facto referendum, Starmer says so, and so does Sunak, and even… and even if they do say that’s what it is and even if they do get 50% +1 then the UK government will ignore the result and refuse to accept that it had anu=ything to do with a referendum because the Supreme Court says that’s illegal anyway so they cannae dae that!

    I think they see the writing on the wall and we’re going to hear an awful lot more like this. I say good! because that is what is meant to happen. They’re starting to panic and you can smell their fear Hahaha

    • Geissler even finished his Yes Buttery with Shona Robison by asking, was Sturgeon’s time at an end given the growing reports (from him and his colleagues, and Grouse Beater, Alab and the so called ‘pro independence; splinter mob) that a regicide is in the offing?
      They know the game’s up, and we are taking our country out of colonial servitude.
      What will they all do for a living when we are Scots Europeans again, and the Word From England has no reonance in Scotland?

    • They are desperately now trying to think of how to stop all elections in Scotland. The iref and plebiscite polls since the UKSC ruling have them s***ing bricks.

      If they succeed in ‘just ignoring’ Scots voting for independence, it will be a historical world first. No imperial power / dictator has ever managed to just ‘ignore’ voters saying they don’t want ruled by them anymore. Nope, they have to rig elections or stop people voting.

      If Scots vote Yes and accept that they have, they will simply take their independence. Nothing else will be acceptable, even those democracy respecting Scots who voted No. If the SNP don’t want to negotiate, voters will put someone else in place who will. English people won’t accept their own government doing that; they are already saying Scotland should have its vote, even if they’d like the UK to stick together.

      The English government has no idea what to do. It’s thinking just one day ahead of itself now as the whole thing comes crashing down. Remember we are but one part of the massive crisis they’ve created for themselves.

      I suspect all this talk of ‘Swiss style deals’ and ‘going back into the single market’ is about trying to hold things together, including keeping Scotland in the UK. But it’s too late for that now, and if the UK does rejoin the single market, it just makes independence easier while killing the ‘border posts at Gretna’ crap stone deid.

      Nope, I think the Rubicon has been crossed. That the 2020 voters who were tempted then backed off are now like ‘Right, that’s f**kin it. Who they hell do they think they are taking my vote off me. Indy. Now.’ And all the time the generational demographics eat away…

      • Return a majority SNP/Green MPs at the next election, and that’s it.
        Even Thatcher conceded that.
        We declare independence.
        If the London Government say No, we just retire meekly to our Jox Box, and bow down to Murdo Fraser and 4 Jobs Dross?
        That’ll be shining bright.
        We march on Edinburgh Castle armed with pruning shears and hedge trimmers and drive the English Expeditionary Force from our land.
        They cannot ignore the ‘democratic will’ of the Scottish people.
        Book early for a seat on Dunoon promenade to wave the English fleet Goodbye as they set sail from Faslane for the last time.

        They can’t suppress the people of Scotland any longer.
        They know that now.

      • Luigi says:

        It could flip back again for a while Skier. However the slow underlying increase in support for independence is relentless. Slow but relentless.

        • It’s been >50% on average for 3 years now (assuming we don’t suddenly get a lot of new No polls before Christmas) after 10 years+ of getting there (since it became a real, live issue people actually need to decide on, and not some far off remote prospect). SGP gets slightly lower numbers than me, but maybe because he’s just simple averaging rather than my approach of giving no pollster bias (I average all the polls from each pollster in a year first, then take the average of all averages so each pollster gets equal weighting). I’ve even included pollsters using 18+ only, so it’s conservative.

          This agrees with the gold standard SSAS, which has indy as the preferred option in a 3 way (indy vs devo / max vs direct rule) at >50% since 2019 including DKs.

          We must look at the big picture as taking averages of the most recent polls can be misleading. We have a decade+ baseline trend, waves upon it, and massive simple statistical scatter for individual polls due to different approaches and MoEs for each.

          People need to think of polling as a dartboard. The real value is the bullseye. The more darts you throw, the more an average starts to mean something. And it can take a lot of darts as each dart has no idea what the last one did. So, it’s possible that you hit the bottom of the board 10 times in a row. The probability of hitting above or below each time is the same. So, for example, we can have a run of 5 no polls easily even if folk back Yes by a few %. Hence I tend to take very large samples for averaging. You can see that even the lower bound of the scatter is rising. Been a long time since we had the 33%’s of 2013.

          The data says baseline is now >50% and has been since 2019/20, just as prof C finds in the SSAS as noted. It doesn’t ask about timing though, just about people’s preference, so may tend to see Yes a bit higher. This is important as Y/N polls ask about a snap, plan free referendum held out of the blue tomorrow, not about what people support. So Y/N polls will give you a mixture of baseline Yes – which is ‘dead to the union’ people like us – and those who say ‘I want indy, but let’s wait a bit etc’ depending on events. They create the waves on a rising tide, but can make the polls seem to fall even though baseline is ultimately rising. This happened 2015-17 then 2020-21 after waves peaked.

          And it is baseline that is the most important of all, as it represents the settled will. That there will be no going back. No bregrets like brexit.

          Of course it’s achingly slow as its driven by demographics and people making their minds up over very long periods about something very fundamental, and not like an election at all, where you can undo your vote in 4-5 years time.

          I know some people who have slowly moved from No to Yes over like a decade. All the attacks on Scotland, devolution, the abuse, the negativity from Noers… Brexit, the crumbling economy and now the refusal of iref2. It all chips away bit by bit until finally they’d had enough. People just don’t jump that quickly. If they did, they can jump back. We don’t want that. But the data says that’s not going to happen. Half of Scots appear completely lost to the union, with a lot more open to indy. They just got very riled by the UKSC ruling / the English government taking away their choice to be in the UK.

          Of course maybe I’m wrong, but clearly they’re crapping it over seeing what I am seeing. No 10 has more data than me and its statistical experts.

        • Note this was as much an explanation for everyone about my thoughts rather then you specifically!

          The run of polls ahead of May 2021 shows brilliantly the dartboard issue. The range if +/- 5% or more. This is because while pollsters quote +/-3% there are further methodological factors. Some polls might have darts which are better balanced and more easy to hit the target with. Others have feathers which cause them to fall low etc.

          Then sometimes polls are just outwith the 95% confidence interval. That +/-3% only applies to 95/100 polls. Some will have bigger variance. Like for example the 45% Yes from Yougov earlier this year. Sticks out like a sore thumb. But that 56% from Ipsos doesn’t seem to be an outlier, well inside the upper variance bound.

  67. Welsh_Siôn says:

    At this time of year – don’t worry, I’m not clocking off *just* yet – I offer you festive greetings in the form of an appropriate carol.

    Non-Christians, agnostics, atheists, Collatins, Skiers, Capellas et al., all welcome to sing-a-long, too.

    _________

    Hark! The Dugger’s readers sing.

    Hark! The Dugger’s readers sing.
    “Scottish Indy’s just the thing!”
    Peace on Earth and mercy mild,
    No and Yessers reconciled.
    Joyful let our Nation rise,
    Join the triumph of the ‘Ayes’
    With th’angelic host proclaim:
    “Scotland’s re-born to much acclaim!”
    Hark! The Dugger’s readers sing.
    “Scottish Indy’s just the thing!”
    _________

    [With acknowledgements]

    • Capella says:

      🙏😂

    • Bob Lamont says:

      An uncommonly strange yet welcome variant on the original.
      Presumably the absence of the traditional “La-le-lalla-la-le-la-le-las are down to their overuse by Dorries and Tories alike for years by way of answers…

      • Welsh_Siôn says:

        Don’t worry, Bob – I take all this as a compliment. I have a selection, with a personal favourite being a reworking of “Scots Wha Hae’.

        🙂

  68. Capella says:

    Richard Murphy has posted some excellent tweets recently on the sheer stupidity of Tory economic policy. He argues that proper pay rises for public sector workers boost the economy in multiple ways. Tory austerity is a death spiral.

    • Bob Lamont says:

      Indeed well highlighted.
      I’d read Richard’s “Sunak’s talk of a £28bn cost of public sector pay rises is total CRAp” article and BTL comment earlier, possibly slightly easier to get a grasp of this later development of the original from https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2022/12/11/we-need-public-sector-pay-rises-to-create-an-economy-that-works-for-everyone/

      In short it’s the 1970s Thatcher “Family Budget in Grimsby” bullshit resurrected – It caught the public’s imagination then, and my how the populace have NOT “benefited” since, unless you were already heading toward millionaire status.

      Sunak knows he’s talking complete bollox, just as MT did almost 50 years ago, and I suspect it is not only Scots who are tired of “Jam tomorrow” from politicians. Scots can smell it on the other side of the Fire Exit, keep to an orderly file please…

  69. Google suggested the below book to me the other day. By Pulitzer prize winner Caroline Elkins of Harvard University’s History Department. Published earlier this year.

    A timely reminder of the imperial government that we are dealing with. Plenty of other countries have been through this before, and will be very sympathetic to our cause. But we need to show them we want independence. That’s happening now in polls, but we need to do it at the ballot box for the world to see. A UKGE just just fine for that. This will absolutely be accepted by the international community as an expression of national will, even more so now iref2 was blocked.

    It won’t matter then if England just ‘ignores’ us. That would just make our indy debt free etc. It’s England that loses from a UDI and Scotland negotiating its new indy status with the neighbours alone. If we enter the EEA/EFTA/EU, our trade with the rUK is sorted overnight for example. Ignoring = not stopping UDI

    As I mentioned in my previous post, if Scots vote Yes, they will demand it happens and will accept nothing less. Most Scots respect democracy and will accept the outcome, even if not to their liking. Just like the people of the UK would never have accepted that the brexit result be ignored. So that will mean UDI, and if England just ‘ignores’ this, other countries will be like ‘Great, so they’re not going to stop Scottish indy with tanks’ and phone Sturgeon et al. to open talks. That’s how this process historically works.

    If the Tibetans voted for indy, declared UDI and Beijing just ignored this, so Tibet would become an independent country as China was not doing anything to stop it.

    It’s like the abusive partner sitting in the living room staring at the telly while their former beau simply gets up and leaves. That’s what ‘ignoring’ means.

    https://archive.vn/LKjdN

    Legacy of Violence: A History of the British Empire by Caroline Elkins review – the brutal truth about Britain’s past

    When Elkins’s book came out, her findings – partly based on the testimony of Kikuyu survivors – were widely dismissed as, at best, exaggerations by a generation of historians wedded to stubborn ideas of Britain’s “enlightened” and “benign empire”. Her history was dramatically vindicated, however, when an unknown cache of 240,000 top secret colonial files, removed from Nairobi at the time of Kenyan independence in 1963, were disclosed on the eve of the 2011 trial. The files had been stored in a high security foreign office depository at Hanslope Park, near Northampton. At the time of that high court victory, Elkins noted that she had for years put on hold a wider inquiry into the methods of British colonial governance in the years after the second world war, in order to substantiate the survivors’ case, research that would now be illuminated by the fact that the secret document store also held “lost” records from 37 other former colonies. She was both vindicated and outraged by the discovery: “After all these years of being roasted over the coals, they’ve been sitting on the evidence? Are you frickin’ kidding me? This almost destroyed my career.”

    This book, a decade on, is that wider history that Elkins had postponed. Partly resting on the Hanslope Park files, it argues that the sadistic methods that marked the last acts of empire in Kenya were not an anomalous aberration but learned behaviours of imperial power. Her detailing of this reality involves a deconstruction not only of the self-delusion, seductive mythology and doublespeak of the largest empire in human history, but also the deliberate official destruction of large parts of its historical record.

    • Golfnut says:

      Why don’t we just vote to withdraw from the Treaty of Union?

      • I seem to recall that was the plan if people voted Yes in 2014. Certainly makes sense as the ToE is all the UK has as a constitution.

        • Golfnut says:

          UDI doesn’t come into it.

          • It’s a last option, but UDI works perfectly fine if the population backs it, especially if the ruling imperial state does not interfere (i.e. ignores the result). If England just ignored us voting yes (= did not try to stop us), it would be a success. If they moved to ‘take back control’ of Scotland Spain-Catalonia style, we’d have issues. Issues much worse than Catalonia, which is not a country in the same way Scotland is, and where, it seems, indy isn’t the settled will, with a much greater portion of self-identifying Spanish than we have British.

            Must as the Westminster government would like to ignore how we vote, it can’t. That doesn’t work. If it worked, they’d just let us have an iref and ignore the result. Instead, they are blocking the vote and causing support to rise as a result. They are seriously damaging themselves – possibly irreparably – with absolutely no reason by their own logic. That is, if they could simply ignore how we vote.

            This is because ignoring doesn’t work. So they can’t let us vote because if we voted Yes, it could not be ignored. You think people are riled now? Imagine what would happen if the whole country accepted that it just voted freely for indy. 3.5% on the streets topples every time. Unless, that is, troops are sent in.

            Which is now why they are panicking about our next voting opportunity, because that likewise could not possible be ignored if we vote for indy by it. They’ve stopped and iref for now, only to be comforted with the next problem. So they are immediately trying to tell us it’s not possible to vote Yes by election when the opposite is the case, but they can’t stop us actually voting.

            Meanwhile, my feeling is, behind the scenes, there’s a desperate attempt to get some sort of single market membership back to try and stop Scotland / NoI leaving. Time is being bought on the back of the UKSC ruling while they try to prop things up somehow.

            • Alex Clark says:

              History tells us that UDI is only partially successful with more attempts failing to result in Independence for the country declaring UDI than those succeeding. Those that do actually succeed are almost exclusively settled after war has taken place or internal conflict and International sanctions for many years.

              I very mush doubt there would be a unilateral declaration of Independence by Scotland even if successful in a de-facto referendum that is “ignored” by Westminster. In fact, I strongly believe that we are increasingly heading in that direction.

              What is done next in that scenario which is a very real possibility can be played right and with International support will ensure not only Independence but a trouble free fight for Independence. I’m pretty sure that is what we all seek, so there will still be much work to be done even after a victory in a de-facto referendum.

              • Sure, but Scotland does not want war, and so it could only ever be a war of liberation against an aggressive foreign occupier, so wholly justified, if it really came to it. As justified as the fight my grandparents fought in WW2, or my great grandparents when Ireland saw off the English invasion to overturn 1918.

                Which there no evidence it would ever come to!

                Such a war would only be instigated by England, which would ensure Scottish indy, as it did every country that England tried to use war to prevent the independence of (see earlier history book post), including my own passport provider, Ireland. I really doubt they are that stupid, especially watching Putin’s mess in Ukraine. However, it’s useful to remind people that Brengland’s government has historical form, so needs its imperial ambitions finally put to rest so it can move on.

                But also take care, in like Putin and the brexiters, in looking at the past, for the world has changed. It is now dominated by democracies, when it was not before. Ergo we cannot compare past UDIs against in the world of colonialism to today.

                So there will be no war, and if we vote Yes, we will have our indy, which is why they are pooing bricks trying to find ways to stop us voting, while they are so up crap creek, they can only think one day ahead of themselves trying to sort out the mess they’ve created.

                Anyhoo, just ‘ignore’ the talk that they can just ‘ignore’ us voting for indy. They can’t, which is why they are blocking iref2, and ‘ignoring’ us is headlining every British paper. Which is, of course, exactly the opposite of ignoring us. 🙂

    • Capella says:

      Good review of an interesting book, though not exactly Christmas present material. I wonder how much of this history Rishi Sunak is aware of. His family worked for the British in India until independence and then in Kenya until independence after which they migrated to the UK.

  70. Ken says:

    The Tories cut the healthcare budget. 2019/20 the Tories spent £918Billion but will not pay the essential workers. Westmibster wasting £Billions but will not pay the essential workers. The winter of discontent’ approaches. The Tories will be out. Who wants the poison chalice? The Tories total and utter mess left behind in the South, People are dying because of Tory/unionist incompetence and poor policies.

  71. Capella says:

    Andrew Tickell in good form on Labour’s attempt to save the union. Published yesterday but I missed it. Worth a read IMO.

    Labour report shows Scotland is too much trouble for Gordon Brown

    ‘I USED to support independence, but now Labour has committed to holding a consultation on updating the Scottish Government’s capital borrowing ceiling, I’ve changed my mind.”

    It doesn’t exactly ring true, does it? Let’s take another shot: “I voted Yes, but now that Leeds is getting a directly elected ­mayor, I’m having second thoughts.” Nope.

    A third go: “The big thing that made a ­difference for me was the idea that ­Holyrood should be consulted by the UK Government in relation to the minimum wage. That’s a game-changer.” Nope, nope, nope.

    The launch was, needless to say, ­heavily spun. After what seems like 120 years of preparation – with episodic leaks and ­briefings along the way about how serial interventionist Gordon Brown proposes to intervene to save the Union once again – the long-promised report of Labour’s ­Commission on the future of the UK was published on Monday morning.

    https://archive.vn/CocAM

  72. Alex Clark says:

    More splits, this time on the Yes movement as they bicker and fight over whether it should be a Holyrood election or a General election that is used as a de-facto referendum.

    Oh wait, it’s just Tom Gordon in the Herald reporting on the Alba conference from Peth on Saturday. As you were, another split will be along soon, like London buses you wait for ages then dozens come along at the same time.

    https://archive.vn/LOq8U

  73. Alex Clark says:

    Any differing views whether in the SNP/Greens/Alba/Yes movement is in media talk a “SPLIT” which spells the end for Nicola Sturgeon. The one thing the media can always be relied on is prophesying the demise of Nicola Sturgeon and the collapse of the SNP.

    For them it is more than just a headline, it is meant to demoralise supporters of Independence and the really big bonus would be to have them at each other’s throats so that they can then talk of even bigger splits and the end of the world for the evil Nationalist splitters.

    Just ignore them, or even better ridicule them for they are truly ridiculous propagandists for Westminster and the Unionists.

  74. grizebard says:

    Ordinary people don’t ordinarily get involved in esoteric political and constitutional debates, they have more pressing matters to demand most of their attention and they need some well-earned relaxation for what’s left. But they can still (eventually) smell something fishy in the air. They’re doing that now by voluntarily coming to realise that there’s nothing voluntary about our side of the Union dirty deal. And picking up more than a whiff of desperation from the BBC colonial outpost’s futile attempts to conjure difficulties out of nowhere for the SNP in order to gainsay that understanding, to try to distract people from their own blossoming self-realisation.

    Looks to me like a self-perpetuating death spiral into a total loss of democratic acceptance. The more desperate the diversion attempt, the more the opposite gains traction. A tipping point in the making. Given substantive withdrawal of consent for governance from London, the Union is history. It’s just a question of time, really.

  75. yesindyref2 says:

    UDI is an interesting one, you’d have to ask though, by whom exactly? In what circumstances, and what previous steps would need to be taken to give it any import?

    The second is references to wars, battles, and the questions here are even more basic. Where are the arms to come from, the tanks, the anti-tank missiles, the ground to air missiles, the air to air, the aircraft to fire them, the radar to spot the “enemy”? And for anti-missile interception, what about that? And the warships, to counter land and indeed, trade attacks from submarines?

    And most importantly, WHO is actually going to fight, is it a legion of venerable veterans such as those of us who go on the rallies and marches? Who are the leaders of the war revolution, and from where are they going to recruit all the warriors needed to fight the war? What about comms, anti-cyberwarfare, keeping any money, actually in the electronic matrix of international money, from simply disappearing?

    And do people seriously think France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, are going to surreptitiously send over all the above (tanks, missiles, warriors)? Maybe recruits could be got from Universities, the students of the second foundation perhaps who defended their university on Trantor with mind games against the decaying Empire, while the first foundation developed pocket size nuclear fission reactors and personal force shields? “Violence is the last resort of the incompetent”?

    Mmm, so many questions, I need data …

    • yesindyref2 says:

      fusion not fission, oh for an edit!

    • Golfnut says:

      ” UDI is an interesting one ”
      No it’s not, it’s a last resort. It would be a failure of the UN, the International courts and the International Community to respect and uphold Treaty law, and that is something the International community cannot afford to do.
      The ball is firmly in the SNP/SG, Greens and the wider Yes movements court to invoke the Treaty. Asking the people of Scotland ‘ should Scotland be an Independent country ‘ is no longer an option since the dynamics have changed forever and the blame for that change sits squarely with the Supreme Court.
      The Electoral Commission would never have agreed to a referendum question put forward by the Scottish Parliament on Withdrawing from the Treaty. The Union and the Constitution are reserved to the union Parliament and it’s from that parliament that legislative power, I’ll repeat that ‘ legislative power ‘ has to be removed by the people of Scotland.

      • Legerwood says:

        No, the blame does not sit with the UKSC but squarely with the Labour Gov who drew up the legislation that brought the Scottish Parliament into being and the regulations/legal framework under which it operated.

        As the judgement of the UKSC clearly showed it was not just the voting system that Blair’s Gov tried to design to prevent the SNP winning power but also the powers, or lack thereof, of the Scottish Parliament itself. Prime among the powers the Scot Parl does not have is to legislate for and hold a referendum.

        The UKSC had to reach its decision on what was before it. The Court could not re-write the legislation to bridge that gap. A gap that was in all likelihood deliberately engineered by the Lab Gov who drew it up.

        The current UKGov tried to stop the case because it knew what the outcome would be and what the consequences would be when it was laid bare by the Court i.e there is no way out without Westminster’s say so. They also knew what a boost that would give to the Independence cause. And lo it came to pass.

        • Bob Lamont says:

          Found it distinctly odd this absolutely spot-on comment hadn’t appeared in the “Recent Comments” sidebar 35 minutes later…

          “Look at the small print…” has very much become Labour’s signature… 🙄

        • Golfnut says:

          Your absolutely correct ‘re the legislation, but we knew that. The SNP submission gave them wiggle room which they rejected. The SP had choice, endorse the clearly democratic will of the people of Scotland or reject democracy.

          • Bob Lamont says:

            Perhaps you might read Legerwood’s point again, THEY WERE EXAMINING THE LAWS PERTAINING, not making a judgement on whether it was right or wrong.
            There was NO choice involved, even if some of the SC arguments were a touch “Eh?”.
            The SC were not the authors of the “reject democracy” result, that was written decades before…

            • Golfnut says:

              Thanks Bob, Legerwood was crystal clear in her comment, as is usual, concise and to the point and importantly, accurate. Not only did I acknowledge that, I pointed out or at least alluded to, that the SP judgement on the question asked was anticipated.
              As for the rest of the SP ramble, it was that area which was not only an unnecessary add on to the judgement it was blatantly political, and however welcome it might be to the Yes movement as a propaganda tool, they own it.

    • You’d be dealing more with an English troops vs civilians fight to kick off, as per Catalonia. It’s not the best example though as it’s not the settled will there, and it’s not a country like Scotland.

      Anyhoo, it’s a great example of how ‘Ignoring them voting for independence because they can’t do that legally’ worked in this case anyway, and where, all the evidence suggests, the majority actually didn’t want it as noted.

      In the Catalan SAS for example, just 38% on average pick indy vs devo/federalism vs direct rule right now. There was a small wave at back 2013-14 at the time of the vote where it hit mid 40’s, but it never reached 50%, and fell back after, albeit to a higher level than before.

      Also, most Scots are Scottish (3/4) if forced to chose. That’s not the same in Catalonia where Spanish identity is much stronger – at least half possibly. So Spanish federal troops were to an extent not foreign in the way that English troops on Scottish streets would be, just as they were in Ireland and elsewhere. That really changes dynamics.

      Anyway, ‘ignoring’ Catalans voting ‘illegally’ didn’t involve any ignoring whatsoever. It involved stopping the election with troops, closing down the parliament, arresting politicians, and imposing direct rule again temporarily. It resulted in ugly scenes being broadcast globally, and core indy support doubling from what it had been previously, albeit that’s still not enough. Pure genius. Spain now has a bigger problem here than it had previously. Why didn’t it just ignore the vote? Because it couldn’t. You just can’t.

      We can easily put the 3.5% together. SNP + Green membership alone takes us most of the way.

      https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world

      The ‘3.5% rule’: How a small minority can change the world

      • Golfnut says:

        Catalonia and for that matter Canada are irrelevant.

        • As I note each time I mention these, their situations are very different. However, Catalonia shows how governments just can’t ‘ignore’ people voting, much as dictators would love to! Same for Canada / Quebec. Canada says Quebec cannot unilaterally seceded, but if people there did vote for independence, that could not be ignored. That was my central point.

          So if we vote Yes by election plebiscite it can’t be ignored. They will need to accept it or start getting heavy handed to prevent the march our nation because Scots will have voted Yes, will expect that therefore to happen, and nobody will be able to tell them otherwise, certainly not right wing English Brexiter Tories like Starmer / Sunak.

          And the international community will watch to see if the England gets heavy handed, or whether they will accept it. It must be one of the two. Ignoring just isn’t an option. That’s just silly lol. Likes like threatening to put their fingers in their ears and sing ‘la la la’ if we vote Yes. 🙂

          The didn’t ignore iref2, they blocked it, doing themselves real damage in the process it seems. They are not ignoring the election plebiscite even if they claim they are. They’re doing the opposite; talking all about it, telling us how it won’t work, we cannae day that as they don’t agree etc. That’s so not ignoring. Ignoring would be letting us just get on with voting Yes, starting to phone the EU, UN etc while England didn’t intervene. Negotiations on indy are not just with England. It’s the rest of the world that matters more.

          If ignoring works, why didn’t they just ignore the 1918 vote in Ireland? Why bother with a whole war, just to lose it and Ireland when they could just have ignored the vote? 🙂

          • Golfnut says:

            Of course ignoring the vote is not an option for westminster, my point is that neither Quebec nor Catalonia mirror Scotland’s position within the union. The number of occasions where both Quebec and Catalonia are sited by politicians, media and even the SP should be enough to tell you that there introduction into the argument ‘ against ‘ Scotland withdrawing from the union is to detract from Scotland’s legal position and conflate with Quebec and Catalonia’s constitutional position. In case you haven’t noticed, Spain are doing a grand job of ignoring Catalonia.

            • Sure, but my posts were not about the constitutional positions of these, but rather the inability of governments to ignore how people vote.

              Maybe we got some wires crossed, but I note(d) Spain has not managed to ignore Catalonia at all. If first had to block the iref in court. That failed and it went ahead anyway. However, unable to ignore it, Spain had to send it troops to stop it happening, and this with the result likely being No based on polling. What all this ‘ignoring’ with federal police batons, jailing of politicians did was successfully double support for independence (dark bluey grey) in Catalonia vs devo / federalism vs direct rule:

              That is the equivalent of the SSAS for them. They have 38% backing indy as a preference – twice that to prior to the great ignoring – we are on 52% including DK. It’s our settled will. It’s not theirs it seems for now.

              This ignoring with violence, court cases and arrest didn’t successfully stop indy. What’s stopped that is the fact that Catalans don’t actually want it / it’s not their settled will. It doubled support though as noted, and the muscular ‘ignoring’ with court cases etc we’re getting now will have similar effects. All in all, the Spanish rights ‘ignoring’ approach was an unmitigated disaster that’s solved nothing and just made the whole thing worse. It cost them electorally and now the left are back in power and talking to the Catalan / Basque nationalists. So I look forward to Scotland being ‘ignored’ Spanish style. Ignoring us with the UKSC case is already paying dividends with polls! 🙂

              Canada not stopping the indyrefs in Quebec was a much more successful strategy. No won in both cases, just like what happened here in 2014. It would also be the best strategy for the UK government and their only hope of keeping Scotland in the UK. The more they bloc, the more impossible it will be to ever have Scots vote to be in the UK, and the more popular anger will grow until the whole thing comes crashing down and ends bitterly, damaging the rUK badly.

            • Hmm, image didn’t seem to work. Trying again.

          • Alex Clark says:

            The fact that refusal to accept the outcome of the 1918 election by Westminster then resulted in a guerilla war between the Republicans and the British is clear evidence of them “ignoring” the result of a democratic vote.

            Let’s not get into semantics, if the result of the 1918 vote had been accepted in Westminster then the whole of Ireland would have become a Republic there and then with Westminster’s blessing and good wishes. It didn’t and resulted in war.

            • I think we all getting wires crossed. Sorry!

              When I say ‘ignore’, I mean don’t respond to / don’t act upon. That’s what England is threatening us with for an election plebiscite. That it will just not speak to us about indy, even if we vote for it. Instead, things will just carry on like nothing happened. It will not act upon the result. It will stick it’s fingers in its ears and sing ‘la la la’. If Sturgeon declares we’ve voted Yes and starts on international negotiations (UDI?), England will just ignore her and will keep doing that no matter how many times we vote for indy. This is fantasy island stuff, as the UKSC said.

              The Supreme Court specifically state Holyrood did not have the power to hold an iref as if the answer was Yes, it would need to be acted upon politically, i.e. it could not be ignored with life just carrying on as before. Well, the same applies for a UKGE plebiscite. They could not put their fingers in their ears and sing ‘la la la’ in the same way they could not if we held ourselves and iref and voted Yes. You can actually hear British nationalists trying to say that us voting Yes in an a UKGE can’t be legal as Holyrood doesn’t have the power for independence. That’s hilarious. They’ve just told us Westminster is sovereign and so we say ‘Ok, nae bother, we’ll just vote Yes for that then!’ and now they’re like ‘No, no that’s not what we meant, just ignore what we, including thatcher, have been saying for a century!’. It’s hilarious.

              In both Catalonia and Ireland 1918, both Spain and England respectively knew they had to act in response. They could not let people vote Yes and just get on with it. So they didn’t turn their heads or stick their fingers in their ears, they sent in troops and it got very ugly. Spain succeeded in doubling baseline support for indy, England succeeded in losing the bulk of Ireland.

              I appreciate that ‘ignoring’ can be taken as meaning ‘overturning’ etc, but that’s not what I was trying to say.

              Anyway, I hope that’s cleared things up!

      • yesindyref2 says:

        You’d be dealing more with an English troops vs civilians fight to kick off, as per Catalonia.

        I very much doubt it. Firstly Catalonia was not troops, as far as I remember, it was state police – and the UK does NOT have state police.

        Secondly it depends, as I said, on the who and what circumstances for the UDI – and on that depends the involvement of Police Scotland.

        If Police Scotland are not on the side of UDI, then in the first instance it is up to them to treat the few civilaians who manage to obtain arms, as crimminals, and use armed police officers to counter and detain them, They could call on support from other police forces in the rUK.

        If Police Scotland ARE on the side of UDI, then it would be the British Armed Forces with the rUK Government using Royal Prerogative, fighting against the Police, and THAT is a very different and unlikely kettle of fish.

        To compare with the “Tanks in George Square” which never actually happened, the troops were asked by the Sherrif of Lanarkshire, giving that official status. Hence why the “who” of UDI is vital.

        • Alex Clark says:

          The Republicans in Northern Ireland fought a guerilla war against the British state for decades, there are many different levels of what war might mean on the ground but they all involve two opposing groups using violence in pursuit of some goal or other and can rightly be described as “war”.

          • yesindyref2 says:

            That’s a hundred years ago Alex, back in the days of the Sopwith Camel and cavalry charges through the mists in Belgium.

            Things are very different. Who do you know is going to give up their everyday life, go into hiding in a country that is saying “WTF” and not hiding them, and take up arms and ammo they get from – somewhere? Would you?

            The Irish got arms from England and Germany – is that going to happen now? Russia maybe? Would you like Scots to be in Putin’s pocket?

            Bullets against tanks? Kitchen Devils against Apache Attack Helicopters? Wave at the F35-B and hope it doesn’t target you? Aim a mirror at it and hope to dazzle the pilot?

            And as I say, it would largely be a police matter – or the rUK armed forces wouldn’t be involved at all.

            • Alex Clark says:

              I wasn’t referring to the Irish war of Independence I did say “The Republicans in Northern Ireland fought a guerilla war against the British state for decades” I’m talking of the 3 decades between the late 60’s and the signing of the peace agreement in 1998.

              That was 30 years of a guerilla campaign against British forces and the bombing of civilian and state assets in Northern Ireland and England. Wouldn’t you agree with me that conflict could rightly be described as a “war”?

              There have been other “wars” such as the Falkland War which had far fewer casualties than the “troubles” in NI but is still correctly described as a war.

              • yesindyref2 says:

                Sorry I didn’t read it properly.

                As far as those decades in NI are concerned, would you want that in Scotland? The “Ulsterisation” of Scotland? Do you know anyone at all who would? Indy or Unionist?

                And the links with the USSR were unmistakeable, they funded and supplied any group involved in terrorist activities (same as the West) fighting a proxy war – would you want Scotland to be in Putin’s murderous pocket?

              • yesindyref2 says:

                “Your comment is awaiting moderation”

                Eh?

            • Alex Clark says:

              Of the republican groups that took part in this conflict, they mainly called themselves armies so at least in their opinion they were at war with the British.

        • Didn’t see all this. Think things are getting a bit ahead of themselves here! We are so far from ‘war’ it’s purely hypothetical musings.

          Police Scotland are Scottish. The first thing the Spanish did was shut down Police Catalonia because it was Catalan. You are not going to see Police Scotland round up and arrest Scots for protesting against English rule, even if England took back control of them and ordered them to start arresting SNP politicians or something. Most of them back indy.

          Spain sent in ‘foreign’ Spanish ‘troops’ to deal with the iref because Police Catalonia were not going to stop it, being Catalan and devolved. Ok, those ‘troops’ were federal police and not army, but the Spanish police are armed, so same thing pretty much. Armed troops ‘fighting’ unarmed civilians, as so characteristic of democratic suppression. Old ladies getting beaten up for trying to vote etc.

          Sure there are no UK feds thankfully as these would be English. As would any equivalent sent north to put down our rebellion! 🙂

          It is possible to fight a war with no weapons. You stand in front of tanks like Tienanmen square, or as many Ukrainians did against the advancing Russians, forcing them to turn around. Gandhi could teach us a thing or two. You join arms around your parliament to protect it, as happened in eastern European countries struggling to depart the USSR.

          Of course, if the occupier starts killing civilians rather than the tanks reversing, then guerrillas will form eventually to defend against this, just as they did e.g. in the Irish war of indy and in response to British army attacks on Irish civil rights civilian protesters in the north.

          The overall point is that the English government cannot ignore Scots wanting indy. There’s no way to stop it if that’s the settled will. It’s just a case of how much cost they’d be prepared to pay before losing anyway. They seem to be living in a fantasy land where democracy can be suppressed peacefully without anyone complaining. That’s magic roundabout land.

          History is littered with failed attempts to stop independence. It always fails if it’s the settled will. Sadly, that failure has come at great cost many times, such as is happening right now in Ukraine.

          The English government are heading down a route at making an enemy of Scots as they did the Irish. Their tactics can only destroy the union and, sadly, foster the same distrust that other countries have of imperial England after having suffered the same when they sought democratic self-governance.

          But there’s a new thread, so enough waffling!

      • yesindyref2 says:

        To put it another way, can you seriously imagine “Shock and Awe”, or as it might be called “Jock and Naw”, with a bombardment of cruise missiles taking out police stations, church halls, known sympathetic pubs and football stadiums, with “collateral damage” of women, kids and other civilians” numbering the tens of thousands? I sincerely hope you can’t.

        • There will be no ‘uprising’, ‘conflict’, troubles’, or even a ‘divisve’ civil war .chaps.
          Scotland shall retrun to Self Determination, peaceably.
          ‘Jaw-jaw, is better than war-war’ as old Winston mused.
          WE shall prevail by diplomacy and democracy.
          The tipping point will come when even england cannot deny democracy; the international pressure alone will weaken their case.
          The voices of big international companies who operate within Scotland will help sway opinion in our favour too; Ian Blackford will surely be bending the ear of CEO’s as we ramp up the dialogue.
          As will the 27 members of the EU, who would more than welcome us back into the fold.
          Diageo will be offered assurances when we ‘take back control’, as will English based global companies/manufacturers.

          ‘Scotland is open for EU member business’ has a certain (cash till) ring to it.
          I’d venture that medium to big sized businesses in Scotland, and on our continent are already undetaking Scotland Free Impact Analyses, and SWOT opportunities reports.
          Oh, and England will still want our beef, electricity, whisky, and timber.

          • yesindyref2 says:

            Absolutely.

            If this comment actually appears 😦

          • Alex Clark says:

            We are not going to be going down that route, Westminster might refuse to accept
            a 50% majority vote in a General election as a de-facto referendum so we will need to proceed from that point on with the aim of obtaining International recognition instead.

            We can do this without declaring UDI which invites the opposite to happen and invites the government of the UK to intervene and prevent UDI with force as they might argue as necessary and much of the International community might agree with them. They are all reluctant to break ranks when it comes to this type of situation and the status quo is far often the east=y way out no matter what they might believe privately.

            An example is that the international community ignored what happened in Catalonia, I think because they tried to move too quickly with their UDI which had no chance of being recognised Internationally because it was boycotted by half the population. Without that recognition, it was easy for the Spanish state to round up the leaders of the “uprising” and put them in jail without a dicky bird being said.

            We should go down the route of getting the International community on board first and as I see it that is far preferable to stepping into the unknown through hasty decisions.

  76. yesindyref2 says:

    A serious problem for crofting in Scotland

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19585878.crofiting-market-out-control-young-people-locals-priced/

    with feed and fuel costs this year making it worse. Blackford makes an offer for the King to visit his croft to give crofting much needed publicity

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23184157.ian-blackford-invites-king-charles-working-croft-skye/

    and some plonkers take the probervial out of Blackford below the line, just because it’s the monarchy. I doubt they’ve ever met crofters or stirred out of their West end flats if they even live in Scotland, and certainly never travelled around the highlands and islands.

  77. Ken says:

    To get Ibdependence the easiest way is to get out and vote for it. Vote at every election. Too low turnout to vote out the opposition, Vote SNP/SNP at every election. Simple and easy. Coucil/local election, Holyrood, GE. Turnout 40% – 59/60%. Ref 85%. More Independence supporters need to get out and vote every election.

    Independence supporters should get out and vote. Instead of sitting in their hands and complaining, Use it or lose it, The power is in people’s hands at every election. To vote out the opposition. Get another to vote as well. Simple and easy.

  78. Ken says:

    Scottish Gov monies no longer goes back to London. Changed policy by SNP Gov. Westmibster has already had a major cut of Scottish revenues and finances. Westminster unionists wasting £Billions of Scottish revenues on poor, bad unionist policies. A total waste by Westminster greedy liars. They cannot count, read a balance sheet or analyse statistics. Westminster poor, bad policies are appalling wasting £Billion like their is no tomorrow. Ruining the economy. Westmibster unionist lying and corruption at every opportunity to feather their pockets. On illegal gains and corruption. They will be voted out.

  79. Capella says:

    Twenty questions for Labour on their Save the Union plan. Possibly get one answer “back in yer box”.

    SNP ask Gordon Brown 20 questions on ‘fundamentally flawed’ plans

    1. Where are there proposals that will stop Scotland from having policies imposed on it by Tory Westminster governments it doesn’t vote for?

    2. Where are there proposals that will allow Scotland to re-enter the European single market at the very least to repair the Scottish economy from the damage being done by Brexit?

    3. Why have no proposals been made to repeal those post-Brexit laws that take power away or give Westminster ministers the power to veto or overrule devolved decisions?

    …and so on.

    https://archive.vn/t9bos

  80. Capella says:

    “BLOW FOR SUNAK” said no media outlet. Is he not staring into the abyss as the Tories tear themselves apart?

    Priti Patel and billionaire Tory donor launch campaign against Sunak

    A NEW grassroots Conservative campaign backed by a billionaire donor has been launched in a bid to “empower party members” and “restore democracy” following the coronation of Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister.

    Sunak became PM automatically without the need for members to be balloted in October after his only rival in the leadership contest Penny Mordaunt dropped out of the race.

    Now a campaign entitled the Conservative Democratic Organisation (CDO) – spearheaded by ex-home secretary Priti Patel and donor Lord Cruddas – has been launched in an attempt to ensure members can “take back control” and steer the party’s direction back to the centre-right.

    Cruddas – who has claimed members are now being treated like “mindless drones” – has donated more than £3.5 million to the Tories.

    Prior to Sunak becoming party leader, MPs ousted Boris Johnson before overthrowing his successor Liz Truss who had been voted in by Tory members.

    The CDO is the brainchild of former MEP and Brexiteer David Campbell Bannerman and the campaign is being orchestrated by the Conservative Post.

    https://archive.vn/Or8RX

  81. UndeadShaun says:

    The red tory leader doth protest too much…

    ‘In capitals, in bold … tattooing it on my forehead’ – Starmer stresses his total opposition to doing deal with SNP
    This is what Keir Starmer said in his LBC phone-in when he was asked if he would do a deal with the SNP if that was necessary to form a government after the election. He said:

    We are not doing a deal with the SNP. I say that in capitals, I say it in bold, I said it at my party conference, I’ve said it many times before and since.

    He went on to say..

    “The SNP will have to make their minds up. If they want to bring down an incoming Labour government, and prop up a Tory government, then that’s their choice, and that’s what they will have to sell back in Scotland. Good luck with that one.”

    If anyone props torys up its labour as has been seen in edinburgh and other areas.
    In addition Starmer is so scared of rec torys he wont dare say he will rescind brexit. Even though senior labour grandees say by not doing so he helps independence. Which he is desperate to prevent.

    Perhaps we should call him “schroeder’s starmer”

    • There is no Labour Party.
      The choice which England faces at the next GE is Hobson’s Choice, no choice, from three almost identical versions of Little England imperial Toryism, a far right fascist philosophy.

      Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, and Rupert Murdoch, drove a stake through the heart of the Labour Movement in England, and Margaret Thatcher purred.

      All three UK Parties shall produce near identical manifestos, with xenophobic, racist, fascist, bullet points to catch the majority mood of Little England.
      England votes Tory these days.

      Trident, Brexit, diplomatic alliances and trade deals with rogue states, to replace the madness of severing ties with a half billion of our fellow Europeans, is hailed as a great thing..

      They are buying beef from Australia, hauling it twelve thousand miles across the globe, yet our own farmers are buckling and failing under the strain of being denied access to markets on our own continent Europe.

      For over forty years now, all these North Britain Jocks who have sold their souls for English gold have become very wealthy men and women indeed.

      Brown, Blair, Darling, McConnell, Reid, Wilson, and a list of treacherous carpetbaggers too long to reproduce here, have run Scotland into the ground, on instruction from and rewarded mightily by their English Masters.
      Brown is still tottering about, a pasty faced old man, churning out farcical nonsense, which Glenn Campbell and the Herald, tart up, and edit before the Clunking Fist’s insane ramblings as The Way Forward serve up to their viewers and readers as the antidote to ‘divisive’ Scottish nationalism.

      There is no Labour Party in Scotland.
      Anas Sarwar is a joke.
      No cloth cap and dungarees man is he.
      He is a millionaire son of a billionaire who supports Brexit, Trident, and laissez faire Cash And Carry capitalism.
      His children attend private schools…
      Working Class Hero. My arse.
      When are Labour supporters, who are interaantionists going to realise that the only o[tion open to Scotland now is Self Determination?

  82. Hamish100 says:

    I see Rowling of Harry Potter fame setting up some new womens refuge. For me the issue is not the need for a refuge but it does appear that some of the representatives shown in the National have close links with the Labour Party. Another womens charity set up this year likewise. Is this a deliberate ploy?

    • David Cameron’s Beg Society. I’d imagine that it gave JKR warm fuzzies right enough.
      Save me from charities and collection tins.
      Scotland is a fabulously wealthy country.
      We don’t need charity or filthy rich ‘benefactors.
      We are taking our country back.
      Food banks..it is a crime against humanity.

      • yesindyref2 says:

        JKR was a victim of domestic abuse and sexual violence herself.

        • I was aware of that, YIR2.
          I stand by my comments.
          Why does Scotland have a nexus of charities when there are a mere 5.4 million of us living isn such a wealthy country?
          It is the perpetuating of the wealthy benefactor ‘rescuing’ our unfortunates that gets me to the core.
          It is not for the wealthy and privileged to pick and choose which areas of our society get a financial boost.
          It smacks of Victorian paternalism.
          And it’s written off against tax.
          You may recall JKR and (now) Lord Darling attending an auction to boost funds for the BT campaign?
          Poverty and despair are at the heart of much social breakdown.

          • yesindyref2 says:

            Jack, I don’t think any women who benefit from it would care whether it was a Unionist benefactor or an Indy benefactor, or if it was provided by the state, or Saint Nick, as long as they have a safe refuge they can go to for help.

            • Of course, YIR2 ..but my point still stands..the Oligarchy depend on the down pressed being desperate enough to accept any scraps thrown from the table of the Elite; that’s how they maintain the status quo. I’m wealthy, you’re not and never will be.
              enough already.

      • Legerwood says:

        I suspect her decision to set up this refuge is about excluding trans women from the refuge. The Equalities Act 2010 allows trans women to use women’s refuges but specific guidelines are set out as to how the refugees should be organised in order to achieve a safe environment for all users. It may be that her plan will be challenged under the 2010 legislation which may be what she wants.

        Who knows? All I know is that I don’t remember all this fuss when the Equalities Act came into effect in 2010 nor for that matter the GRA in 2004.

        • Alex Clark says:

          I think you’re right as well given her views on the matter.

          There is also a reason for “all the fuss” now as well, of course, it wasn’t that long ago that the Tories in Scotland also supported reform of the GRA but when they saw that it might be used as a weapon instead to beat the SNP over the head with, then they changed their minds.

          • Legerwood says:

            Absolutely that. An attack weapon against the SNP. This tweet contains a link to a letter plus annexes from Shona Robison to the UN Rapporteur that lays out in detail what the Scottish Gov’s GRA reform is all about. It does so clearly, plainly and without hyperbole. Really is worth a read

  83. Hamish100 says:

    I see the wider point I raised hasn’t been answered.
    All the new groups this year when there are well recognised charities for women in place already.
    Does this not dilute their impact?
    Look in depth and you will see the links with 1 political party and some other well connected folks.

Comments are closed.