Going over the top

You know how if you tell lies you’re supposed to end up weaving a complex web? The Scotland Office can’t even manage that much. It’s not so much a complex web of lies that they’ve woven as a moist tissue that falls apart with a gentle prodding. The only thing complex about the Scotland Office is something psychological that probably isn’t amenable to therapy because it’s a personality flaw.

You may recall a wee while back when the Scottish government released its impact study on the effects of Brexit on the Scottish economy. The study showed that there’s no scenario under which Scotland ends up benefiting from Brexit. Even a soft Brexit à la Norvège ends ups with null points for the Scottish economy. Leaving the customs union and the single market as the UK government is proposing results in a serious hit to the Scottish economy. If no trade deal with the EU has been struck by the time the UK leaves the EU, the Scottish government’s study forecast that Scottish GDP would suffer by some 8.5%.

To be fair, there is a scenario under which the Scottish economy benefits from Brexit. That’s the scenario where the EU agrees to allow the UK full access to all the benefits of the single market and customs union and doesn’t mind that the UK is no longer a member. Under this scenario the EU will agree to everything that the UK wants and there will be no negative consequences at all. The EU will also agree to give every UK citizen a free apartment in a Spanish holiday resort and will ban Germans from putting towels on sun loungers. Brussels will agree to put pressure on FIFA to ensure that England can never be put out of the World Cup on penalties ever again, and the French government will award Boris Johnson, Liam Fox, Jacob Rees Mogg and Michael Gove the Legion d’Honneur for services to European goodwill and fraternity. This scenario wasn’t covered in the Scottish government impact study, because the Scottish government was only interested in what might happen in the real world and not in the fine wine infused reveries of Conservative Brexiteers.

It was of course entirely predictable that the grievance mongering Thatessempee would ignore the scenario favoured by the British government on account of it being, to use a technical economics term, a load of auld pishwankery spouted in a wet dream by Empire Loyalist fantasisers. The other entirely predictable outcome of the Scottish government’s study was that Tory MPs and MSPs and their pals would take to the newspapers and airwaves and harrumph about it and try to make out that it was entirely unrealistic. Which is precisely what they did. The Express reported that the Scottish government had “resurrected Project Fear”, conveniently forgetting that Project Fear was a British nationalist exercise in the first place. Adam Tomkins MSP, the Scottish Conservative spokesranter for It’s The LAW! denounced the Scottish government report as over the top scaremongering from a government whose financial forecasts couldn’t be trusted.

Meanwhile the Scotland Secretary decided not to mention the figures given in the report, instead he did his usual thing of fixatedly accusing the Scottish government of being fixated on independence.  All he said about the report was that it didn’t recognise that the UK was seeking the aforementioned auld pishwankery so beloved of delusional British nationalist Empire loyalists and so could be dismissed. Which is a bit like saying that you don’t need to worry about losing your job, being evicted from your home, and ending up starving on the streets because that scenario doesn’t recognise that you might win £100 million on the lottery. Actually it’s not really like that at all, because there is a finite chance that you might win £100 million on the lottery. It’s a very small chance, but it does exist and it is quantifiable. The chances of the UK getting the deal that Theresa May is pinning her hopes on are precisely zero. There’s more of a chance that David Mundell would stand up in the House of Commons and demand that his government take Scotland’s concerns seriously.

Then on Wednesday we discovered that the UK government’s own Brexit impact assessment shows that every part of the UK is going to be negatively affected by Brexit. Scottish GDP would suffer by a hit of 9% under a no-deal Brexit. If the UK remains a member of the single market, the Scottish economy faces a hit of 2.5%, and if there’s a comprehensive free trade deal, the damage to GDP would be 6.1%. These figures are remarkably similar to those published by the Scottish government. You know, the ones that Adam called over the top scaremongering.

In other words the British government expects Brexit will cause a similar amount of damage to the Scottish economy as the Scottish government report calculated, a report which the Conservatives ridiculed as over the top scaremongering. Under a no-deal scenario the UK government is predicting even greater damage to the Scottish economy. Yet all the while the Conservatives were belittling and trying to undermine the credibility of the Scottish government’s report, they knew that their own government’s report was predicting the same ill effects on the Scottish economy. We know who can’t be trusted here. That would be the Conservatives.

The British government impact study is one that the Secretary of State for Stuffed Toy Tories first said did exist and then said didn’t. Which was appropriate really. The British government’s policy for Brexit is for the UK to be simultaneously in all the benefits of the EU while at the same time being outside the EU, a sort of Schrodinger’s Brexit. When that sort of thing is official government policy having a Brexit impact assessment that simultaneously exists and doesn’t exist isn’t really unsurprising. British Brexit policy isn’t quantum. In quantum physics you can either know where a particle is or you can know what its direction is. No one knows where the British government’s Brexit policy is, but we do know where it’s heading. It’s going over the top of a cliff, and it’s taking the rest of us with it.


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39 comments on “Going over the top

  1. Clive Scott says:

    Adam and Ruthie will simply gibber on and on about how the nasty divisive SNP that nobody wants are set on dragging Scotland out of the UK “single market” and that there will be no cross border trade at all. Of course cross border trade would be physically impossible, what with the machine gun posts and razor wire at Gretna and the Trident missiles locked on Holyrood with Fluffy’s sweaty thumb on the button.

  2. Allan Jones says:

    Great writing.
    Loved the brilliant Brexit policy analogy with Schrodingers Equation and Heisenbergs Uncertainty Principle.

  3. […] Wee Ginger Dug Going over the top You know how if you tell lies you’re supposed to end up weaving a complex web? The […]

  4. “Schrodinger’s Brexit”! Wonderful … I’ll be stashing that one away for future use. All things considered, Paul, your excellent post shows remarkable restraint.

  5. scotsmanic says:

    I am finding it more and more difficult to contain the anger and depression and despair and disgust at the Tory lies and filth. Does anybody else feel the same? Seriously. I am beyond tired of this. It saps your will to live. Such blatant and transparent lies and vitriol…and STILL some Scottish people refuse to wake up and acknowledge reality! What does it TAKE???

    • john 59 says:

      Scotsmanic , I think we all share your sentiments . I said in previous posts that the MSM+Conservatives+Unionists will go “Nuclear on Scotland” re starting Independence referendum, but please do not let your spirits drop . In my opinion I believe the SNP and other independence supporting parties and collectives are just biding their time taking careful note of every fault, lie,unkept promises etc and when they think it is time to strike then the public opinion that wee need to effect a yes vote will be on our side. I believe this collective movement will gradually show a poll increase starting at 46-48% then will possibly rise steadily to beyond 57-58%. The Unionist parties know this and there scare stories and threats will fall on deaf ears (but it won.t stop them trying ) . Keep the heid and the faith that Scotland will want it as we all do .

      They are sh—ing themselves and we can smell their fear .

      • scrandoonyeah says:

        58.3% Yes 41.3% No…………have been saying that for the last year

      • Cubby says:

        They are scared and that’s why they will go for every dirty trick from their empire handbook. They will try and impose a higher threshold majority for any future Indy ref just as they did in 1979. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Britnats start saying it has to be 70% majority to get independence. We are not in a Union we are in a prison. We live in a FAUX democracy in Scotland. You do not break out of a prison by asking nicely.

      • scotsmanic says:

        Thanks John. Just get very tired sometimes. Whenever I get out of the car to pay for my petrol and pass the scum papers with their lies on the front pages, it makes me want to scream and kick the stands over. But normally it just entails me muttering to myself “Those bastards have got a fucking cheek”…and paying for my fuel.

        • Robert Harrison says:

          Thinking people in my area of paisley are waking up because the britnat rags are not selling all that well yet the national sells out in half a day here paisley is now a yes area which is a major change from 3 years ago when it voted no.

    • Yes, I agree, it is very hard to understand why “ProudScotsBut” cannot see that they are living in La-La Land. Sadly, in many cases, what it will take is for them to actually experience the poverty and misery which is coming to them after Brexit. Until it hits them where they live, they will refuse to acknowledge the possibility that it might!

    • John Porteous says:

      Me too it’s time all these lies were were put right by the peopke who make them up

  6. Macart says:

    Yeah, Tomkins … an irrelevant placeholder. We’ll take his opinions on honesty of other folk under advisement and file them in a suitable receptacle I’m sure.

    Here is what DID happen from 2014 onwards. A slim majority of Scotland’s electorate voted for a specific vision of their place in the political union going forward. They were promised very specific things and guaranteed/assured of others.

    Lessee now: 1. The only way the Scottish electorate could guarantee to remain a member of the EU was to vote no. 2. Only in a United kingdom could pensions be considered secure 3. In times of economic hardship. Only by remaining a partner in the UK could the people of Scotland feel secure with the broad shouldered aid of joint UK governance. ( see under pooling and sharing…) 4. Only in the UK could jobs be considered secure and indeed that opportunities would increase. 5. Only in union could our ship yards be ‘guaranteed’ orders. To end this brief list of what HMG/Better Together considered the positives. The two cappers. 6. Retaining a strong pound sterling and 7. (You guessed it) The bestest, strongest, of devolution settlements. That only by staying in the political union could Scots see the closest settlement ever to federalism in the UK.

    So how’d all that work out when it met reality in the past three years?

    Anyone?

    In the same order:

    1. Brexit
    2. Triple lock under review as of 2020
    3. Austerity ongoing and Brexit impact assessments of both governments forecasting unparralleled budgetary cuts and fiscal hardship
    4. Thousands of jobs lost across ALL sectors
    5. Original order of 13 frigates cut back to three and that order still not underway
    6. Pound’s value fallen off a cliff
    7. UK gov undercuts the already piss poor Smith commission proposals when passing Scotland bill (mainly because they could) and the settlement delivers on fiscal responsibility for collecting only a percentage of taxes on the broad band income tax. Full fiscal responsibility as proposed by Scotgov binned out of hand by (again you guessed it) members of every party but the SNP in a landslide commons vote. Additionally, due to Brexit, UK gov decides to unilatteraly repatriate 111 powers expressly not covered by the Scotland bill. Effectively driving a bus through the standing devolution settlement both in word and spirit.

    That’s yer VOW. Yer devolution journey.

    That’s the word of a Tory government and that is what HAS occurred in the intervening years.

    Reality is a bit of a bugger right enough, but in Scotland we do have the ability to alter that reality. All we require is the will to do so.

  7. Clydebuilt says:

    O/T , apologies

    Police Scotland
    The BBC & Unionist politicians are working to get into people’s minds that the resignation of the first two Chief Constables is a result of the way the force has been created.
    The problem with the ex CC Gormley had nothing to do with the creation of Police Scotland, he bullied his staff.
    The resignation of the first CC Stephen House was due to teething troubles of the new force, and individual error by a call handler, helped along by a Pro UK Media.

    • Cubby says:

      Your comments are spot on.

    • scotsmanic says:

      The Daily Heil had a headline today aboot the SNP’s ‘poison chalice,’ as if the party are responsible for the irresponsible behaviour of police officers. The naked hate and bile from these lying Unionist vermin is incredible to behold on a daily basis.

      • Robert Harrison says:

        Yet if the snp stepped in that be snpbad as well as they’d say the snp was corrupting the judiciary process or some crap among those lies typical English media this is all jealousy because in Scotland people are held to account better than in england as those in higher power get let of the hook instantly in England but in Scotland they can get done hence another reason to be free we can get rid of the rest of the crap laws england has foisted on us and do it better.

  8. SandieK says:

    Absolutely brilliant piece as always!!
    And also, Macart, a very useful summation of the Vow and their hollow meaningless promises. If you don’t mind, I’d love to use that now and again in my weaponry.

    Bearing in mind this wee fact, I don’t really believe the UK should be risking a Brexit at all. It’s a wee fact that the Tories (and indeed all Unionist parties) are (publicly) conveniently forgetting.
    I also fear it means they will NOT under any circumstances let go of the golden goose, even if they strangle us in the process.
    http://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk

  9. Davidson closed her wee tawdry amateurish PPB by ordering us all to forget about Referendums, and ‘warning’ the Scottish Government to ‘get on with the day job’.

    There was no mention of Brexit of course. That little can of worms has nothing to do with the Scottish Government’s ‘day job’. Aye, right.

    In 14 months’ time I will be under House Arrest, held in custody by an English Homeland Security. I will pay up to 50% more for food and drink from the Continent, I will not be allowed to travel, work, settle, or receive NHS backed medical treatment Over There’; but challenging and opposing this madness is nothing to do with the Scottish Government ‘getting on with the day job’.

    It is not the ‘day job’ to protect Scots citizens from the madness of May?

    We are to bite the bullet,accept that because 85% of the UK are English and have outvoted us, we are therefore overpowered, and must accept that our family income will drop by thousands per annum, unemployment to increase by 80,000, and our GDP to drop by 8-9%?

    If I don’t like it, Ruth Davidson urges me to lump it.

    What a unbelievably arrogant and stupid little person (OK M Trudeau?) this wee gnaff (gender neutral M,Trudeau) is.

    Her ‘day job’ is to lie, to bully, to threaten, to blacken names, sully reputations, act as a Fifth Column for the Right Wing Nationalist zealots among our nearest neighbour England, and basically take part in none of the Scottish Government initiatives, programmes, while at the same time undermining our great institutions and publicly owned Public Services.

    Mundell is a liar. Professor Tomkins toys with fantasy. Murdo Fraser cuts up Johann Lamont’s Haggis for her while Liar Carmichael recalls another quite different wee sleekit timerous beastie whose wee bit hoosie is also now in ruins.

    A fat bloated overweight Red Tory insults the LGBT community, and Chinese citizens who have done us the honour of making Scotland their home, with a glass of whisky in front of a bunch of the intellectual wing of the next generation of Blair’s New Labour/Corbyn’s Commies and will now be sent to the Benbecula Reprogramming Camp where Racist, bigoted, homophobic Brit Nats are sent for a coupla days to sober up.

    ‘Whatever you do, don’t mention ‘Brown Paki Muslims’ when Anas is in the room, and you’ll be fine.’
    Diversity training over.

    There is now enough factual evidence that Scotland would be committing financial, social, and political suicide if we meekly follow England and Wales into the Wilderness.

    Jackson Carlaw will laugh his fucking bloated ruddy face off as the Red Blue and Yellow Tories shout ‘Single Police Force crap’ today at FMQ and wee Kenny the Presiding Lister will allow them all the Yoon time in the world to scream and shout from the benches while our government tries to govern.

    The trick is to pick our moment, announce Indyref 2, and begin a very public and noisy campaign exposing Ruth and her lies, Mundell and his muddles, and Leonard and Rennie, as pointless lumps of carbon and water.
    We must attack all of them, incessantly, brutally, with the Truth.
    They will lie as usual; it is the behaviour of the coward, the bully, the traitor.

    • scotsmanic says:

      When Indyref 2 is announced we are going to have to go into the breach long and loud and fearlessly, because this is for permanent keeps. This country will be destroyed in the event of another No vote. It’s already happening.

    • john 59 says:

      What a precise and excellent assessment Jack, thank you .

  10. Andy Anderson says:

    In general I have always held politicians in low esteem but I think all parties other than the SNP are now displaying such high levels of lying, self interest and contempt for the electorate that I cannot wait for independence. I hate them all.

    One of the first new laws in a free Scotland must be to put into law that misinformation is a crime. No more fake news. In addition no politician from before independence that lied and can be proven to have lied to their electorate (like Fluffy, Ruthie etc.) can stand for a seat in Scotland. Ban these manipulators. We need fresh and open minds.

    • Clydebuilt says:

      Andy . . . Couldn’t the Scot. Gov. Make it a crime to mislead the parliament right now . . . Providing the Greens didn’t act up . . .

      Probably would need to give the offender a chance to Apologise. . . ( with a very short time limit) otherwise Scot Gov could be occasionally caught out by civil servant error. . .

  11. Macart says:

    From Tory twitter and meeja reactions the strategy appears both insane, yet predictable.

    Conservative government has broken faith with Scotland’s electorate on every conceivable level. On every pledge. On every assurance given. Their response to getting caught in yet another epic piece of deception?

    Inflate every minor gripe or failure of the SNP government. To saturate the media sphere with misdirection and lies, then project their runaway dishonesty and non existent discipline onto their opposition.

    To be clear – UK gov is in full on panic mode right now. They display biblical levels of dishonesty, party political disharmony, ineptitude, arrogance and ignorance. This is possibly THE worst sitting UK government of the post war period, rife with scandal, infighting and calamitous mismanagement. Yet they would have the public believe that themessenpee folk are somehow worse??!!??

    WTAF?

    This government, it’s predecessor and their practice of politics, have brought the economy of the nations of the UK to its knees. That same practice of politics has fractured society almost beyond repair. They’ve shattered standing agreements with N.I.. Drove a bus through the devolution settlement and have taken the UK’s international standing into the sewer with an EU referendum which could only be described at best, as driven by mistrust of Johnny Furriner and sheer dishonesty. Trust in institutions from services to government are at an all time low. Indeed most folk wouldn’t piss on our media were it on fire about now.

    In spite of all this carnage which they have visited upon the peoples of the United Kingdom, the bad guy is always someone else.

    Not a single redeeming quality to be found anywhere in sight. Most certainly not honesty.

  12. Gavin C Barrie says:

    So what’s in Brexit for the main players – May and her husband, Fox, Davis, Gove, Moggs etc?

    Why are they hell bent on Brexit when financial forecasts, the responses of the Eu personnel all point to disaster. Why does May cling to her mantra “the will of the British people”, of a narrow EU Leave referendum result? She must be aware that opinion polls now point to a change in the public’s view. And why simply ignore Scotland?

    Is there obstinacy to do with wealth? Personal wealth presently held by the above-mentioned, and prospective wealth once no longer obliged to follow EU rulings? Seems there an EU ruling coming down the line in 2019 that will act against offshore banking and tax avoidance.

    I’d be surprised if but more than a few of the Tory MSPs, sitting banging their desks at Holyrood, are in the +£million wealth category. So what’s in it for them with Brexit?

    “House Tory” placements post-Brexit? is that the limit to their aspirations? If any political group should be economics savvy you would think it would be the Tories. – Carlaw? Wells? Tomkins? Davidson? – economics background? business management? The Tory PPB last night neatly displayed their worth to Scotland – noise and nothing else.

  13. wm says:

    Carlaw,Wells,Tomkins,Davidson-economics background,- bussiness management I would not trust any of them to deliver the correct papers in a paper round.

  14. Anne says:

    Does anyone have a link to the Tory PPB ? I know, I know I should ignore the propaganda of the Tories, but I hear Annie Wells stars in it and I could use a good laugh!

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