Every day of the week and twice on a Sunday

I watched Channel 4 news on Tuesday evening, and for the third or fourth time since Nicola Sturgeon made her announcement the previous morning, a reporter made the bald statement that the economic case for independence is now poorer than it was, and that it’s the Unionists who hold the economic cards. This is catagorically untrue, and needs to be nailed. We cannot, as independence supporters, allow this myth to go unchallenged. The truth is that Brexit means the economic case for independence has never been stronger.

There is no status quo this time. The greatest single argument that the Unionists had last time was why risk the uncertainties of independence when you can stick with the security, stability and safety of the known quantity of the UK. That argument has been destroyed by Westminster itself, by Theresa May’s arrogant pursuit of the hardest Brexit imaginable and her willingness to countenance the UK falling out of the EU without any trade deal at all. That means there can be no safety and guarantee of economic success in the United Kingdom. There is no stability of the pound sterling. There is no security of job prospects in a Tory Brexit Britain. This is not an appealing economic argument to put in favour of remaining a part of the UK.

The claimed benefits of Brexit were described as “a lie” and we were assured that a large number of jobs would be lost if Britain were to leave the EU. We were told that experts believed that Brexit would make the UK a less safe and certain place, a poorer place. In an article in the Financial Times it was stated, “There is no doubt in my mind that there will be a large economic cost of Brexit. It is agreed near unanimously by economists and businesses large and small.” Those statements were made by no less a person than Ruth Davidson herself, the same Ruth who said that we should trust in the experts “every day of the week and twice on a Sunday”. That’s the very same Ruth who’s now telling us we need to make the best of Brexit and who is desperately trying to avoid the subject of the economic damage that it’s going to do to Scotland. Although to be fair, she doesn’t have to avoid it too strenuously as the Unionist media aren’t really pursuing her vigorously on the topic. But the independence movement will.

So let’s look at what some experts say. Some experts warn that Brexit puts some 80,000 Scottish jobs at risk. In other assements, according to economic forecasts by those experts in whom we should trust every day of the week and twice on a Sunday, real earnings in the UK could fall by 10% by the year 2030 as a result of Brexit. That last is a forecast made by Simon Wren-Lewis, a professor of economic policy at Oxford University, a real economist and not a Unionist blogger with a penchant for graphs. In an article in the New Statesman  explaining why Brexit makes Scottish independence more economically attractive than the alternative of remaining a part of the UK, Professor Wren-Lewis argues that both an independent Scotland and a post-Brexit Britain are facing a difficult economic future. But, he argues, the prospects for an independent Scotland are far brighter.

The crucial difference is that an independent Scotland with full access to the EU single market will find it considerably easier to get out of economic difficulties than a Brexit Britain which is economically isolated from the rest of the world. That’s the key. An independent Scotland will prioritise the development of the Scottish economy, it will put Scottish jobs first and foremost, and it will have the tools to grow the Scottish economy successfully and profitably and access to the markets that can make that happen. In a Brexit Britain we will be an afterthought which exists purely to be stripped of assets and resources, with public services underfunded and under provided, and with little or restricted access to markets other than the contracting and stressed so-called UK single market.

Given the severe financial stresses that a Brexit Britain is going to face, the Barnett Formula is unlikely to survive more than a few months beyond a No vote in the forthcoming Scottish referendum. As a part of the UK we are facing an uncertain and difficult financial future, and that’s likely to be for the long term. As an independent country, it’s true that we face a difficult period of readjustment in the short term, but it will be far easier for Scotland to escape those difficulties.

It needs to be repeatedly stated that Scotland’s economy does not depend on the price of oil. Despite the collapse in oil prices over the past few years, the Scottish economy was scarcely affected. It’s interesting to note that in the same period during which UK revenues from oil were devastated, Norway continued to draw healthy, albeit reduced, profits from its oil fields. The difference is due to the different tax regimes in each country. An independent Scotland needn’t give the same massive tax breaks to oil companies as the UK does, and therefore we’d benefit more from our oil and gas resources, even though the price of oil is lower than it was during the last independence referendum.

If Scotland remains a part of the European single market by becoming an independent country, we’d be in a position to attract jobs and inward investment that currently go to the rest of the UK. Independence could bring about a jobs bonanza for Scotland. The alternative we face are the potential 80,000 jobs lost due to Brexit. That doesn’t sound to me like the Unionists have all the economic arguments in their favour, quite the reverse.

Then there’s the argument constantly cited by Unionists that Scotland does far more trade with the rest of the UK than it does with the EU, an argument which conveniently overlooks all the trade Scotland does with the rest of the world which is enabled by trade deals we have as a part of the EU. I’ll give Professor Wren-Lewis’s response to that in full.

… Scotland currently does a lot more trade with rUK than with the EU. If Scotland became part of the single market, and that resulted in trade barriers being created between Scotland and rUK, the immediate impact on Scotland’s trade would be negative. That would be another short-term cost. But in the longer term, Scotland would be better off with this arrangement. To see why, imagine two parts of this island, one which has easy access to the huge market which is the EU and one which did not. It is obvious which part would be expected to grow more rapidly.

The choice facing Scotland in this referendum is between two economic uncertainties and difficulties. There’s the short term uncertainty and difficulty of independence which brings with it the prospect of growth, prosperity and stability in the medium to long term. Or there’s the uncertainty and difficulty of Brexit, in which we face penury and impoverishment in the short term, and in the medium term, and in the long term, and we will be utterly at the mercy of a vindictive Tory government in Westminster which will suck us dry and cast away the dried up husks of broken Scottish communities. I know which I prefer. I know where the economic arguments lie, and they don’t lie with the Union, they are with independence every day of the week and twice on a Sunday.

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63 comments on “Every day of the week and twice on a Sunday

  1. Irma says:

    Superb, unarguable, succinct, excellent. Now all I have to do is memorise it!

  2. Robert Graham says:

    Any truth in the rumour when Mayhem does her state visit to jock land she’s doing a walk about with Nicola in the centre of Glasgow, That’s very nice of her isn’t it .
    Sorry to introduce humour to a excellent post Paul but it’s been a long few days.

  3. Andrew Gordon says:

    Can’t f*****g believe the pish that’s coming from MSN BBC et al, even went to Al Jesara for some sense and got the same shit.
    Our politicians need to call it out when interviewed , call out the lies and the bias, call out the shameful running down of my country, bastards all shame on them.
    They can’t make an argument and resort to benal drivel, the coverage of the yoons is on warp factor 10, let me out of here

  4. Cath says:

    I’m with Irma. I need something set down that I can refer to when talking to ‘no’ friends. I can’t just quote back stuff like you WGD. Any chance of a script? Sorry if this sounds pathetic but I’ve heard you talk and I need help to get my message over!!

    • hettyforindy says:

      Well, some pointers might be. Scotland can use the pound,fact, but will we want to. The UKtreasury takes all of our whisky and oil revenues and have done for a long long time. Scotland’s NHS, is healthier than england’s, due to funding and investment by the Scottish government. The Scottish government have mitigated many of the cruel blows (to our poor, sick and disabled) due to the UKGov austerity. They have kept bursaries for student nurses, kept the EMA for kids from low income families, set up an ILF, for those who need support for independent living. The Scotgov are improving our infrastructure, like building a bridge which is essential to Scotland’s economy. (the one which labour, tories, libdums and the Greens all said we shouldn’t build!) They are investing in rural communities, environmental protection and renewables. No charge for prescriptions, for all, bus passes at 60, Scottish Water not privatised. Tuition fees, no, you don’t end up with £30-50k of debt after studying like they do in England.
      UKgov have sold some old student loans debts to debt companies, nice.

      At present, we have devolution light. The SNP ScotGov are doing an amazing job to keep Scotland afloat and to take Scotland into the 21st century. Remember all of this is being done within the constraints of the UKGov. So many things are still reserved to WM. Immigration, the UK can and do throw people who are not UK nationals, out of Scotland, some who have businesses, and who employ people. We have no control over that, and of course students, if not allowed to stay after their studies, for a even minute, will decide not to come and study here.

      Now, when they say, ‘aye but you’s get your freebies cos we pay for it’. Well no, Scotland sends more in taxes to UKtreasury than gets back, in pocket money, called a ‘grant’. Imagine, you send your wages to your neighbour, and they give you some back, keep some for themselves and say you should be grateful for the grant they are giving you! It’s like almost akin to protection money or something.

      What the UKtreasury include in Scotland’s revenues does not take account of Scotland’s whisky, or Scotland’s oil, which goes direct to UK treasury, funding vanity projects in london etc.

      GERS is a lie, and was actually designed by UKgov to make Scotland’s economy look less than healthy. Barnett is an insult, and can be removed by UKgov anytime they fancy. So can the Scottish parliament.

      Now why would the unionists want Scotland to stay in their union, if Scotland is such a subsidy junkie? Do the tories send us the ‘grant’ for altruistic reasons? Lol.

      Scotland has been taken for a ride, kept poor, and treated with utter contempt by the unionists, including the ones in Scotland. Scotland can no longer be their gravy train, england needs to stand on its own two feet now.

      There is much more, but really, we need hardly point out just what the future of Scotland will be, if dragged out of the EU, but still shackled to the WM, london establishment for a very long time. No human rights or workers rights, very possibly fracking in Scotland, forget your renewables, or land rights etc etc. Holyrood all but removed, it would make a great hotel.

      Sorry such a long comment, but these are just some things that can be pointed out to unionists. Writers like Paul and WoS are debunking unionist lies day in day out, thankfully.

      • Saor Alba says:

        Good stuff Hetty.

      • Aucheorn says:

        Thanks Hetty for the Primer. I’m going to print it out and pass it on to canvassers, use it on street stall.ect.

        • Toni Young says:

          I’ve printed out the whole thing! Paul on his own is stupendous. With the comments from the regulars and more, there is something for everyone to learn. Keep it up and thank you.

      • Wonderful, hetty.
        We must tackle the fiction and lies about GERS and the non existent £15 billion deficit.
        For example none of the Revenue stream from the UK companies like Tesco, M&S, Asda, and so on is including in the quite farcical GERS calculation.
        UK companies have no requirement or obligation to provide figures, so they don’t.
        The GERS scam was a fiction invented by Iain Laing when SoS to pull the wool over Scots’ eyes, that’s all.
        Yet Mundell and Co get away with describing this piece of Whitehall fiction as ‘the Scottish Government’s own figures.’
        Yesterday, the Daily Record printed a full page of lies about Independent Scotland in the EU, one of which was this GERS £15 billion deficit Lie. They have dusted down the Project Fear 1 manual, and trotted out the lies and threats, join the euro, out of NATO, border with England, England won’t trade with us, under pain of incurring the wrath of their English Owner Masters.
        It appears that the Daily Record is lying to the Working People of Scotland, quite deliberately, their pieces of silver doled out by their English London based Proprietors.
        Some would argue that fake news journalists are the enemies of the Scottish people. I couldn’t possibly comment.
        Meanwhile Ruth Davidson is scrapping widow’s allowance, and forcing bereaved mothers, and some fathers, with young children to sign on and look for work, and fuck bringing up a young family on your own.
        Davidson and Dugdale are beneath contempt.
        They seem to lack a social conscience completely.
        Brit Nats at all costs.

        • hettyforindy says:

          Well said Jack, and everyone, so many good comments to read.

          Regards Davidson and her dreadful, cruel, destructive party, it’s one thing to follow your masters in london, but to undermine Scotland, a country that she is meant to represent, is sickening.

          When I was a voluntary advocate for a while, I was supporting a carer who’s wife had died suddenly. In order for him to cope with it all, to arrange care for his severely disabled son, and keep his home together, bereavement/widows allowance was crucial for him.

          I dread to think how this could impact on those bereaved with children and /or care responsibilities. Davidson and her troughing party are disgusting.

          • hettyforindy says:

            Had to revisit this because I just had a letter telling me that my electricity bill will be going up by £300 a year, as of April. When talking to soft no’s, do remind them that Scotland pays millions to connect to the ‘national’ grid, ie, englands electricity control centres, while those in the south of england are PAID millions £s to connect to their own grid.

            Also, our police and fire services are the only ones forced to pay VAT to the UKtreasury.

            These are facts that most people do not know and are not told about.

          • wm says:

            Could not have explained better hetty thanks for the lenthy comment, and with help from Paul,Macart,Jack and some of the other commentators, we can all play a part, even us who have got big mooths

    • Puzzled Puss says:

      If I might make a suggestion, Cath and Irma, for some time now, I’ve been taking the liberty of copying sections of text from various blog sites and pasting them into my own ‘Arguments for Independence’ Word document, and referencing each entry. It makes it easier to refer back to good arguments, interesting points etc.

  5. […] Wee Ginger Dug Every day of the week and twice on a Sunday […]

  6. I realise that most things found in the MSM have but a passing connection to the truth, but does this article in the Guardian have any basis in fact? I hope not. Don’t start slip-sliding around now. We need consistency.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/14/nicola-sturgeon-signals-scotland-referendum-could-be-held-after-brexit

  7. Bill McDermott says:

    Just to add to the favourite point made by the Yoons, the 4X trade with rUK as opposed to the 15% going to the EU, has to be seen in the context, also favoured by Johnson and Co, that the EU has a trade surplus with the UK and will do a deal.

    What is good for the rUK in that argument also applies to Scotland. The rUK has a sizeable trade surplus with Scotland. Goose and gander come to mind.

    • Golfnut says:

      Actually, I’m intrigued by how much RUK exports to Scotland, supposedly, Norway has a similar level import value, but guess what, that apparently is down to imports for the oil industry, ships, New platforms and of course engineering products.

      Engineering, yes I get that, but ships and platforms, eh.

      Surely they are coming from outside the UK, along with cars etc.
      This import export malarkey needs to be roped in and tied down from somewhere.

  8. Tinto Chiel says:

    What Irma said.

    And this quoting random Spanish politicians till you get an SNP Bad line (I should have brought it up on La Gota Que Colma El Vaso, really)……….

    Why in hell would the Spanish attempt to stop Scotland remaining in the EU? What would happen to their fishing fleet if it could not get access to Scottish waters? Are they going to stop consuming all our seafood and eat McDonald’s instead?

    None of it makes sense.

    • Jimmy the Pict says:

      Spain might also lose access to Norwegian waters as I believe it is a reciprocal agreement for Norway to have access to EU(Scottish) waters.

  9. Patience is a Virtue says:

    One retort to the barage of nonesense spouted to date on the (apparently, ‘we are told’ – the basket-case) Scottish economy, is ……

    …who exactly was it that has brought us to the point of a National debt (UK) of £1.7 Trillion Pounds (that incurs a current interest per annum of over £50 Billion Pounds)…. ?

    A few of the resources at Scotland’s disposal are listed below:-

    [again pinched from a recent posting on WoS]:-

    Scotland has 8.3% of the UK population , but has

    32% of the land area.
    61% of the sea area.
    90% of the fresh water..
    47% of the open cast coal production.
    81% of the untapped coal reserves.
    62% of the timber production.
    46% of the total forest area.
    92% of the hydro electric production.
    40% of the wind wave and solar energy production.
    60% of the fish landings.
    30% of the beef herd.
    20% of the sheep herd.
    9% of the dairy herd.
    10% of the pig herd.
    15% if the cereal holdings.
    20% of the potato holdings.
    100% of the Scotch Whisky industry. 70% of all Gin.

    and…..

    17 billion pound construction industry.
    13 billion pound food and drink industry.
    10 billion pound business services industry.
    9.3 billion pound chemical services industry.
    A 9.3 billion pound tourism industry.
    7 billion pound financial services industry.
    5 billion pound aeroservice industry.
    4.5 billion pound whisky exports industry.
    3.1 billion pound life sciences industry.
    Scotland still has 350 million pounds worth of textile exports.
    25% of Europe’s wave and wind energy potential

    and …just for info, 65% of the natural gas production. 96.5% of the crude oil production

    [not in the above figures folks … just a wee ‘bonus’ for later……£1.5 trillioin pounds of Oil and Gas reserves… and they are out there]

    More important than any of the above is being able to decide, for yourself, on what happens in the Country you live in, and for that vote to count.

    Simply Vote Yes! for Independence.

  10. Jamie MacDonald says:

    Agree with another great post Paul, thanks, and with some recent comments regards our side getting the message out ..we get vilified enough via MSN, if we get opportunities like on ch4 tonight, we need to crush the unionist pundits with the bestest, most informed our side can muster.. Pointing no snouts eh Ginger?(!)
    Give him that look boy, and ah huv a biscuit fur ye..!!

    Seriously though, the message needs to go out in a big way this time, I think the free yes paper last time was a good way of approaching someone or even a reason to visit their property (can be handy in a rural area) and start to approach the subject..

    If we aim it at the population that are not online so much, giving them the facts we have easy access to? The elderly would be an obvious target, would an independent post be a go-er?
    Base it on Sunday post, complete with a funnies strip for the dug, dispelling on a weekly basis the most recent scare stories..

    Would be down to local groups to deliver, do we have the numbers peeps? Probably, but will need well organised to well and truly ‘cover’ the country, distributed on time etc..

    Any new yes campaign needs to seriously consider something to this effect, and pummel the currency \pensions \trade arguments every week, while explaining clearly (with references) the alternatives available to Scotland.

    Mibbes somebody frae DC Thomson will grasp the thistle this time roond and bring ‘the post’ up tae the standard we now enjoy from the Sunday herald and the National in this new enlightenment period..
    haud yer breath? Eh.. naw, ah wudnae.. Let just dae it wur sels!

    • Jamie MacDonald says:

      And before I even finished posting Patience is a virtue has started- now that’s what I’m talkin’ aboot!! Well done that Nat(!)

  11. Sandra says:

    Hi all

    Couplede of points

    At last ref it wavs estimated 5% drop in trade with RUK that is not huge

    We also have options on EU ie take Norway style deal we want the 4 freedoms but then we have more control ie fishing grounds not that we wouldn’t rent some mount as we can’t possibly fish 100%

    Are RUK willing to pay extra shipping costs on everything or buy it from there land neighbour

    Also do remember SNP are spending out of ressecion at the moment – huge infrastructure getting built

  12. They were everywhere today, like rabid hyenas tearing at the flesh of a still warm carcass.
    £15 billion deficit, 9% of GDP, taxes would need to be raised or public services cut, a Spanish Labour MSP asserting that we would have to take our turn behind Turkey in the queue, and it could be 10 years in the international wilderness before we would be considered for re-entry to the EU, and Channel 4’s Crick in the Neck was in a wee Fife fishing village where they all voted No and Brexit, and will do so again, and Newsnight was in a Glasgow pub, where the Voces Pop all seemed to think that it was too soon, we voted to stay in the UK in 2014, and the UK voted to leave the EU, and every Yoon mouthpiece from Tomkins to Torrance on any channel or dead tree scroll that would have them talking the usual gunge about ‘Nicola Sturgeon’, and the EssEnnPee are really Bad and didn’t win the election, and we wouldn’t be welcome in NATO, and Russia will attack, and as we trade 4 times as much with the UK than the EU, and Ruth Davidson will spearhead the blockade of goods entering or leaving Scotland to or from the UK post Brexit because she is a rotund little Tory vengeful bully if we so much as think about calling a Referendum, and we can’t keep the pound, and we’ll have to join the eurozone, and borders will be erected between Scotland and Empire 2, and May will block Indyref 2, either completely, or at least until after the UK GE in 2021, and the oil, all 1.5 trillion barrels of it is worthless and a burden, …
    Every broadcast outlet, every dead tree scroll, all weighing in with biggest pile of propaganda porn ever mounted on these isles.
    They are shitting themselves.
    Good.

    • dennis mclaughlin says:

      Well summarised laddie!,Nicola must have a great great backup chess team…’cos she sure as hell fianchettoed DisMay 🙂

    • hettyforindy says:

      Wow, I am glad I don’t watch tv or own a radio, my health would really suffer. What they gonnasay for the next few months, couple of years even. The parasites are not happy, Scotland is no longer paralysed with fear.

      The yoons really are in a panic. They just embarass themselves.

  13. Eric Smith says:

    When it comes to cartoon characters, Walt Disney – but Theresa May!

  14. Eilidh says:

    Fab posts the past couple of days dug.After 10 minutes of the news on Monday I gave up watching anything to do with politics.With moron Uni loony pundits and biased reporters I thought that was probably best for my blood pressure. Mind you seeing stuffed toy Mundell practically having an aneurysm and Davidson and Dugdale with faces that could sour milk was worth it. Nicola has shown far more political skill than May and all of her cronies. Calling another referendum is definitely the right decision.If May thinks she can dictate the timing of this referundum she is in for a big surprise.No doubt we have a hard fight ahead but one that I beleive will be worth it in the end

  15. Very impressed with the way the Stugeonator walked into the press Room at Bute House and threw a very large bag of spanners into the delicate mechanism of UK brexit. Coolly walk back out, with a slight smile on her face.
    We are very fortunate to have her and once the Art 50 button is pushed she and we will, I’m sure, have assistance from Europe and the EU in our road to Indy.

    • Jan Cowan says:

      I agree wholeheartedly, Malron. We’re well on our way to independence thanks to our FM and her superb team.

      Thanks also to Paul for another informative article – also the very worthwhile comments.

  16. 100%Scot says:

    I was watching the BBC and on two separate occasions she asked someone from the EU if Scotland would be able to join the first guy was a MSP a gentleman from Germany Yes of course and then later on someone else from the EU said yes and that Scotland would be able move very quickly up the cue. Then the same presenter on BBC asked this English guy about the brexit process and he told her straight we have just lost the 3 of most important people to negotiate we don’t have enough Negotiators and that we need 750 people, then she went on to ask well how long will it take he said ten years she said you’ve shock me with that and that the British people wouldn’t wait that long, well neither will the Scots. Then on the Sky channel the sky woman was talking to a professor and a Tory brexiteer she asked the professor about Scotland there doing the right thing. There is a real positive attitude coming from the EU towards Scotland and it ruining the UK project Fear.

  17. Jimmy the Pict says:

    As an IT consultant in Finance industry I get calls on a regular basis about contract positions. Up till this year (and I have been working in finance industry since before Y2K) 90% of the contracts have been in London. This year

    Denmark
    Sweden
    Luxembourg
    Dublin

    Very few for London or Edinburgh

    Thanks Brexit.

    Only hope I am an European Citizen as I am not ready to retire yet

  18. orri says:

    I think there’s a large portion of truth in the claim that the economic case for independence is weaker. In absolute terms that true. What I take issue with is the assumption that the case against independence is unchanged. Even if we accept that in 2014 the case for independence was weaker than that against it’s how things stand now that matters. It’s also how things will stand if we allow Brexit and our removal from the EU to be completed.

    If we’re talking about economic reality the question should be asked as to whether the decline in both cases might have been prevented. It might also be asked as to whether there’s an ongoing deliberate attempt at undermining Scotland’s economy in order to put an end to the independence cause for at least a decade. If so one can only hope that there’s a plan to revive it once the threat is gone. Certainly the loss in oil revenue isn’t entirely down to the price of a barrel.

  19. Macart says:

    Great post and couldn’t agree more.

    Scotland’s economic ‘plan’ has been as part of the UK. It really is as simple as that.

    If people are suffering. If debts or deficits are colossal. If the pound in your pocket buys less today than it did yesterday. If there is less in a Scottish budget to hand out today than there was yesterday. It is because of the economic stewardship of the UK as a whole. It has absolutely NOTHING to do with the performance of the Scottish devolved government who have absolutely zero say on macro economic policy.

    If you want a government and treasury to respond to your needs and aspirations. One that will place the interests of the Scottish electorate and their life chances to the fore, then you know what to do and where to place that mark in the box.

    O/T

    I take it you caught the stooshie over the Telegraph piece Paul? Dropped a comment on the end of the last thread, but dear God they’ve lost all reason when publishing headlines like those.

    P.S.
    Enjoyed the talk in Stranraer on Friday. 🙂

    • Sam, I don’t like to be nosy but I can’t resist asking as I don’t know what the stooshie was. What happened?

      • Macart says:

        Hi Irene

        If you check my post at the tail end of the last thread all will become clear.

        It’s pretty shocking.

      • Iain Ross says:

        I assume he is talking about the article with a strap line that Sturgeon is a “traitor” and stating ‘off with her head’. I have not read the article but that choice of language is completely inappropriate but it perhaps provides a window into the mind of many Unionists, dare I call them blood and soil British Nationalists?

        • orri says:

          Would that be the one that was changed to the one about a treacherous Queen of Scots? Not only implying indirectly that Sturgeon was a usurper but also maligning the reputation of one of the present Queen’s ancestors? Mary Queen of Scots was driven out of Scotland and sought refuge with QE 1 . There’s no evidence she ever took part in any plots against her host despite being a key element of many of them. Even the one she was convicted of seems like a frame up.

          If want treachery it’d be far simpler to look at such things as introducing EVEL the second the 2014 result was clear.

    • weegingerdug says:

      You should have said it was yourself. I didn’t realise until I was on the way home. We need to catch up properly sometime soon.

  20. David thorpe says:

    I think that we have to recognise that an independent Scotland will not instantly become a member of the EU. If May triggers Article 50 this month, that means that the UK will leave the EU in March 2019. An independence referendum will nott ake place until autumn 2018 at the earliest, and going by the position last time, it will take a further 18 months or so for negotiations with the RUK to be completed and for Scotland to actually become independent. By that time, of course, the UK, including Scotland, will have long since left the EU.

    There’s also a lack of unanimity among potential Yes voters that the EU is a Good Thing. What I’d like to see happen would be for an independent Scotland to join Norway and iceland in EFTA and the EEA (we’d be readily and much more quickly accepted) which would give Scotland full access to the EU free market, freedom of movement , etc, and the extensive network of free trade agreements that EFTA has established all over the world. It would also have the advantage of preserving our fishing grounds. Membership of the EU could be put on hold until we saw how things were going and what the people of Scotland wanted.

    • Jamie MacDonald says:

      That is the best plan I have heard so far – like devo max would have been first time around, a good middle ground that would bring the fishermen on(shore?)and persuade more than a full EU commitment would.. We should give this plenty of air if it is as it seems. Well done David!

      • stewartb says:

        Couple of things on this:

        Sorry Jamie, cant agree. David thorpe’s “plan” is nothing like devo max was first time around! Devo max was not and could never could be classed as ‘independence’. Just as fantasy federalism would not be either.

        But on EU or EFTA membership, I posted this today on another site which I think agrees with the thrust of David thorpe’s post:

        1) Scotland’s decisive vote to Remain showed up starkly the democratic deficit we currently face, exacerbated by the May government’s refusal to compromise (at least so far – is there to be a panic ‘vow’ to come before the end of March?)

        2) The FM’s bottom- line position in terms of the proposed compromise has been for an arrangement for Scotland to stay (specifically) in the single market, not to stay in the EU

        3) in the EU referendum, we all had only a binary choice – Remain or Leave the EU.

        4) In Indyref2, the objective is to win independence. So: (a) we must in my view avoid getting caught proposing an immediate post-indy course we can’t control – like currency union the last time, potentially EU membership this time?; and (b) for tactical reasons and of course also to enable the people of a newly independent Scotland to debate and then decide for themselves, I’m not averse to being a member of the single market via EFTA membership even if only for starters.

        After all, once independent, the people of Scotland can decide to change again in future if a majority here decides this is in Scotland’s best interests. As has been discussed in an earlier WGD thread, it is this basic proposition that makes the case for independence.

        • Jamie MacDonald says:

          Hi Stewartb, the ‘thrust’ of my comparison of devo with Davids plan was to use it as the middle ground ,to bring people on board, which I feel devo would have done in 2014 had it been an option – I know it is not independence lol!
          I just feel people would be more inclined to opt for a middle ground given the choices this time..
          some who may not opt for full EU membership(fishermen for example, or for currency reasons ..)plus some who dont wish complete removal from it for fear of losing the benefits it brings if your analysis is correct and we, as previously said, ‘give it air’ and sell it well enough,(for this read -get our message out!) it could well be the best idea I’ve heard yet! Sorry I wasn’t clearer in the first instance.. Keep up the good work-and smiling!!

  21. Robert Graham says:

    I have noticed some wee things happening on various Indy sites recently , Paranoid ? possibly . How do the unionists stop the pesky Nats in their tracks ? Simple cut off their means of Communication , its that simple ,Interfere with all pro Indy websites We dont have the support or access to the media so who is going to complain .On a more positive note its good to see support rising this time we must win .We dont want the feeling of despair that a lot of people felt on the morning of the 19th 2014 ever to be repeated again.

  22. Iona says:

    Great post, Paul. My problem is how, on the ground, do we actually counter the MSM misinformation. I have working friends who are too busy/ disinclined to follow all the machinations of the debate. Instead they take the bold headlines from the MSM and base their judgement on those.
    Who is able to get informed debate started? It would take willingness on both sides and that’s unlikely to happen. Because, without informed debate at a much higher level than we have seen, we run the risk of another ‘sound bite’ Referendum, and, in my opinion, win or not, that will not produce enough of a consensus for a successful future for Scotland.

    • Iain Ross says:

      I think that this time things shall be a wee bit different. As much as the MSM shall rally against Yes they can not escape the fact that Brexit has completely undermined the ‘status-quo’ argument and unless they are completely detached from reality there is no way that even disengaged people could not have noticed that. Remember we have been here before and heard it all before, people’s appetite for scaremongering is limited and the so is the impact because it becomes ‘normailised’ (such as the MSM have been trying to do with Brexit I should add). We have also had all the lies and broken promises from 2014 onwards, not to mention Brexit and even Trump. I think the law of diminishing returns is in play here.

      As for what to do, just keep putting in your 2p worth when around them, and adopt the drip, drip approach, be rational and helpful. This time round I am making a big effort not to be flippant as I now realise that people do not like their core beliefs being attacked and tend not to respond well if put in this position, I know I don’t! Don’t get me wrong I am not going to hold back, I am definitely going to point out the hypocrisy and downside of voting No as well as all the positive Yes messages, it is just I am going to try and do it with good humour and like an adult. In addition and following advice from here and elsewhere I am not going to waste my time getting into arguments with those who are committed No voters; at the end of the day we do not need them to win, and we have to win this time. Hope that helps!

  23. Col says:

    Well the SNP seems unable to counter myths like gers and the uniquely worthless oil we have. As they more than anyone are in a position to call out all the BS I find it demotivating to endlessly watch such poor performances.
    There’s very little fight there so they always look like the liars in the face of the opposition’s more convincing fibs. We know the lies because we don’t rely on the BBC or daily hate mail but most still get their general views from them.
    Even this idea that we need to go begging to Theresa Mayhem for permission to use the toilet or ask for a new referendum was not nailed on the head. Show your strengths and downplay your weaknesses. This is a fight, not a debate about who gets to sit in the back or the front passenger seat. We want to be the owner and driver of our own destiny.
    Do we have to sit them all down for a surprise intervention or what?

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